#10 - JRL 7281
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
August 8, 2003
WHO'S AFRAID OF SERGEI GLAZIEV?
People's patriotic forces of Russia may get their second wind
Sergei Glaziev could rally the protest vote
Author: Ivan Balashov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
FOR YEARS, THE COMMUNIST PARTY HAS BEEN THE ONLY FORCE IN RUSSIA
CAPABLE OF CHALLENGING THE POWERS-THAT-BE. THESE DAYS, HOWEVER, THE
COMMUNISTS HAVE FALLEN ON HARD TIMES AND FIND IT INCREASINGLY
DIFFICULT TO RETAIN THEIR LEADING POSITION. A NEW FORCE, A NEW
OPPOSITION, HAS TAKEN SHAPE IN RUSSIA.
Political scientists are commenging on public interest in Sergei
Glaziev, Duma member and a prominent member of the People's Patriotic
Union. Given the multitude of articles and rumors in the media about
Glaziev, it is clear that one of the major intrigues of the 2003
parliamentary election will be associated with the "Glaziev
phenomenon."
For various reasons (often diametrically opposed reasons) and
motives, most Russian citizens in almost all strata of society believe
that the time has come to do something, finally; that things cannot
continue as they are. Vladimir Putin was elected in 2000 on a wave of
expectations and hopes. Several years have passed. The potential of
that wave is not yet exhausted. The protest vote, demanding changes,
is socially active. These voters would be a boon for any political
force capable of attracting and holding them.
For years, the Communist Party led by Gennadi Zyuganov has been
the only force in Russia capable of challenging the powers-that-be.
These days, however, the Communists have fallen on hard times and find
it increasingly difficult to retain their leading position. A new
force, a new opposition, has taken shape in Russia. On the one hand,
it refuses to tolerate the current regime. On the other, it detests
the ideology of Marxism. What counts is that the new class does not
automatically associate patriotism with left-wing ideas. On the
contrary, patriotism exceeds the borders and postulates of the
communist policy program.
Naturally enough, it is difficult for the Communist Party to
forsake the title of "the only defender of the people." Only 30-40% of
the protest voters are now prepared to vote for the Communist Party.
Even so, Zyuganov's camp is consolidated - while other participants in
the people's patriotic movement are fairly amorphous. Playing on this
solidarity versus vagueness, the Communist Party has established
strict control over all of them.
Practice shows that this control or management is ineffective
because it inevitably leads to losses - the loss of votes, in this
particular case. Opinion polls indicate that over half of voters are
prepared to support the people's patriotic bloc, while fewer than 25%
are prepared to vote for the Communist Party list. The remaining
patriotic forces cannot overcome the 5% of the vote barrier, so their
votes will be divided among the winners. It is hard to say at this
point exactly how the numerous opposition parties and movements will
behave this time. Until now, they have never been able to overcome the
temptation to run for the lower house independently, owing this to
their own aspirations and the arrogance of the Communist Party. These
days, however, all these parties and movements have an alternative
option.
Of all politicians close to the Communist Party, only Sergei
Glaziev can be attractive to the new non-communist opposition. No
wonder he is under a concentrated propaganda attack nowadays. One
moment, this promising politician is warned against being overly rash
and quitting the Communist Party; next moment he is suspected of being
eager to play into the Kremlin's hands. The quantity of barbs has
transformed into quality, leaving the impression that Glaziev is
feared. Why?
Some functionaries in the upper echelons of the Communist Party
fear that appearance of a new opposition coalition will affect their
own political influence. These functionaries are vigorously promoting
the idea of having the Communist Party run for the Duma on its own,
without any alliances or blocs. At the same time, they are reluctant
to let Glaziev walk away, since they cannot come up with an adequate
replacement for him - and they know it.
Those who hope to use Glaziev against Zyuganov would also like to
see his name on the Communist Party list. Zyuganov aims for absolute
control over party activities; he is in charge of both the party and
its faction in the lower house. Many "dissidents" would like some
other strong politician to serve as a counterweight - as leader of the
faction, for example.
As far as Glaziev himself is concerned, he would be better off
outside the Communist Party. Just imagine what would have happened to
Vladimir Putin's popularity rating if he had joined the United Russia
party. That is why Glaziev will probably establish a bloc of his own;
unless the congress of the Communist Party this September votes for a
broad coalition.
Should Glaziev consolidate the people's patriotic forces, his
success would make life much more difficult for United Russia. Even if
United Russia defeats the Communists in the parliamentary election, a
consolidated opposition may end up with a majority in the Duma. That
would cause problems for both United Russia and Zyuganov and Co.
Aug. 8, 2003:
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