#18 - JRL 7277
The Times (UK)
August 5, 2003
Blow to freedom as son follows Azeri President
Robin Shepherd in Moscow
Members of parliament in the oil-rich Caspian Sea state of Azerbaijan paved the way for the first dynastic succession in the former Soviet Union yesterday by appointing the President's son as Prime Minister.
Ilham Aliyev, whose ailing father Heydar has held an iron grip on Azerbaijan for a decade, was confirmed in his new post by a unanimous vote. His elevation means that he is now almost certain to take over as president, possibly as soon as October.
The move is yet another blow for democracy in the former Soviet Union, coming days after President Lukashenko, the autocratic leader of Belarus, signalled his intention to change the Constitution in order to run for a third term.
With the exception of the three Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which are due to join the European Union next year, not one of the 12 other former Soviet republics has emerged from totalitarianism into anything resembling Western-style, liberal democracies.
Of those 12, three are ruled by outright dictators, six are effectively one party states and two are governed by powerful presidents who permit only limited political opposition. Moldova is something of an exception in that it operates a parliamentary system, albeit with a limited opposition.
Events in Azerbaijan yesterday were prompted by the President's failing health. He was reported to be close to death in a Turkish hospital over the weekend and, as Prime Minister, his son is now constitutionally empowered to take over his duties should he become incapacitated.
The beleaguered Azeri opposition has called the move a de facto coup and analysts said that it confirmed a picture of democratic fragility across the former Soviet Union.
"These countries have failed to create stable politics based on institutions, so they rely on personalities," Sergei Markov, director of the Institute of Political Studies in Moscow, said. "Politics is clan-based in Azerbaijan. Civil society does not exist. Political culture is very patriarchal. People see the State as a big family and want a father at its head."
With only a brief period out of power in the late 1980s and early 1990s, President Aliyev has been exactly that for Azerbaijan for more than three decades. Born in 1932 in Nakhchevan, home of the now dominant "Nakhchevan clan", he rose through the ranks of the KGB to become the head of the Azeri Communist Party and, until he was dismissed by Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, was the first Muslim to sit in the Soviet Politburo.
He made a comeback in 1993 and was widely credited with bringing stability to the country and ending the fighting with neighbouring Armenia over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Assuming that the new Prime Minister does take over from his father, his handling of Nagorno-Karabakh may be his greatest challenge. The original ceasefire, after a war that caused 35,000 deaths, left ethnic Armenians in control of almost 15 per cent of Azerbaijan's territory, an outcome deeply resented by most Azeris. Last month, Azeri troops clashed with Armenian forces on the border, leaving up to seven dead.
Analysts say that the need for Azerbaijan's leaders to remain on good terms with Western oil companies, including BP, will be a restraining factor. Oil accounts for around 90 per cent of the country's exports, almost 90 per cent of foreign direct investment and 40 per cent of state budget revenues.
"Oil is the backbone of the Azeri economy," Leila Butt, an Azerbaijan analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit in London, said. "Oil companies would be wary of extending investments if Nagorno-Karabakh erupted into war again."
President Aliyev's succession plans for his son have been laid over several years, but have accelerated recently because of his ill-health. He has long suffered from heart problems and twice collapsed after sudden falls in his blood pressure during a televised broadcast in April.
Other leaders in the Caucusus and Central Asia have been more concerned about hanging on to power for themselves, and that has involved some extraordinary political manoeuvring.
President Niyazov has cultivated a bizarre personality cult in gas-rich Turkmenistan. While presiding over brutal repression of opponents, he has also taken the title of Turkmenbashi (Father of all the Turkmen) The Great. He has renamed January after himself and now considers himself a prophet. He is, needless to say, president for life.
In Uzbekistan, President Karimov brutally suppresses any opposition. Leaders of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Krgyzstan, the other Central Asian states, have taken less flamboyant but equally decisive routes to holding on to power. All have extended their terms of office via referendums that were widely reported to have been rigged.
While Russia and Ukraine, the two most populous former Soviet republics, have so far eschewed such blatant affronts to democratic principles, both have been sharply criticised for heavy-handed policies towards opposition groups and the independent media.
Georgia and Moldova have the best records, although the former's political system is strongly weighted towards the presidential incumbent.
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