#10 - JRL 7277
From: "Igor Biryukov" <BiryukovI@tomsnyder.com>
Subject: Regarding Paul Starobin's 'The Enigma of
Russia' in Johnson's Russia List #7275
Date: Mon, 4 Aug 2003
I disagree with Mr. Starobin's analysis of recent Russian developments. Clearly his is a Russophile and I can sympathize with his concerns about Russia's future. But I believe his analysis is not correct.
First of all, Mr. Boris Berezovsky, whom he quoted as an authority in Russian affaires has a dubious reputation in both Russia and abroad. Mr. Starobin may ask his colleagues from the Forbes magazine. Berezovsky financial acumen didn't protect him from political ostracism and legal trouble in Russia, which was for the most part a fruit of his own poor judgment. His name was entered into Interpol's International search list, which didn't improve quality of his Cassandra-like gloomy predictions of future of Russia he had been making for the last four years. I think Berezovskys analysis is unreliable. Moreover, I am convinced that his own future is bleaker than Russia's.
Secondly, and most importantly, I disagree with Mr. Starobin reading of events. Mr. Putin's struggle is not with progressive entrepreneurs, with ostensibly Western liberal values. From my perspective, it is a struggle with 'comprador' type commodity-oriented capitalism, epitomized by Mr. Khodorkovsky. Clearly this type of primitive capitalism, where both state and population depends on sales of natural resources is a dead-end for Russia. One doesn't have to have a Ph.D. in economics to realize this. Not only it has already made Russia dependant to a dangerous degree on sales of natural resources, but it made it financially depended on capricious world oil markets. Overall, Mr. Khodorkovsky, a billionaire and a poster boy of Russian business, is one of 'compradors', whose role is a facilitator of sales of Russian oil.
Third, there is nothing unusual about any state taking on 'oligarch' of Mr. Khodorkovskii caliber. If you look at the US history, the demise Mr. Rockefeller was for the most part his own fault due to shady deals and rigging of the markets during the rise of Standard Oil. No doubt, fears of concentration of the big chunk of countrys oil market and therefore political clout in one hands also played a role. Rockefeller ambitions were considered threat to both public and government interests. Braking up of Standard Oil by Theodore Roosevelt and demise of Rockefeller created a huge controversy at a time. But in the long run, it didn't not damage US economy, but rather was a boon for consumers and spur for competition and innovation.
As far as Mr. Khodorkovsky's legal trouble, it is a little strange that it is occurring now. But for me, it was even stranger to hear Khodorkovsky promises to support the Communists in the upcoming Parliamentary elections in Russia. That sounded to me nothing short of a lunacy. If the billionaire who promises to support Communists runs into trouble, everyone should be glad he does.
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