#8 - JRL 7271
Argumenty i Fakty
July 30, 2003
THE THREAT FROM THE LEFT
The Phantom Menace
Author: Vitaly Tsipliaev
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
THE YUKOS OIL COMPANY SCANDAL POSES A THREAT TO THE KREMLIN. ANALYSTS ARE CERTAIN THAT THE REGIME WILL NOT GET ANY BENEFITS FROM THE YUKOS AFFAIR. THE ATTACK ON BIG BUSINESS COULD EVEN LEAD TO A SYMBOLIC ELECTION DEFEAT FOR THE KREMLIN.
The other day, the Moscow city court refused bail for Platon Lebedev, a co-owner of the YUKOS company; meanwhile, the Prosecutor General's Office indicted him on another charge. We have attempted to determine who stands to gain a political advantage from these scandalous developments. The conclusion is paradoxical: the regime could get caught in its own trap. The Communists will push the regime into it.
According to some leaked information, Communist Party analysts are carefully studying a scenario code-named "Anti-Oligarch". Essentially, it runs as follows. The first phase involves escalating anti-business attitudes among the public up to 80%; even now, that is the figure polls give for the number of people who dislike the super- rich. The second phase involves riding the wave launched by the security service people, to destabilize the situation as much as possible by the elections. The next step is an appeal to Vladimir Putin, demanding that he make a decision: where does he stand - with the "blood-suckers" or with the people? If the president agrees to a redistribution of property and revision of privatization outcomes, this would automatically make him persona non grata in the respectable establishments of Europe and America. If he disagrees, the Communists and patriots would win the elections. Hence the trap.
The leftists themselves are still cautious in making predictions.
Alexander Prokhanov, a leader of the People's Patriotic Union of Russia: "Imagine a horrible situation where the Communist Party is subsidized by three or four oligarchic companies. What would it do, and in what direction would they turn the anti-oligarch campaign? In reality, the Kremlin's battle with big business is a case of the left hand fighting the right. A battle within the regime. The Communists only benefit from it as long as it distracts the regime from a frontal attack on the Communists - which is scheduled for September-October."
Other analysts believe that no "destructive relationships" between the Communists and oligarchs will stop the leftists. The election campaign can proceed using slogans of nationalizing key sectors of the economy and introducing higher taxes for oil and gas extraction. Essentially, using the slogans of "expropriate the expropriators" and "down with the oligarchs", with a hint of anti- Semitism as well.
Alfred Kokh, campaign manager for the Union of Right Forces (URF): "Can you imagine the business elite funding the Communists on condition that the latter pretend to have no connection to big business, and to gain as many votes as possible by opposing big business? So that later, when they are elected to the Duma, they vote for those laws that are beneficial for big business."
A STRIKE FROM LONDON
While the left wing is gathering strength, another Kremlin opponent, Boris Berezovsky, has launched an offensive. Last week he published a lengthy article in a Moscow newspaper he controls. The article accused President Putin of repressions and redistribution of property, as well as "all the deadly sins" going back to his time in St. Petersburg - from illegal privatization and selling submarines to links with the Colombian mafia, purchasing a villa in Spain, and even involvement in murders. These stale "compromising materials" borrowed from the yellow press will of course seem like complete raving to many, but this is of no importance for the author. In the eyes of the West, Berezovsky doesn't want to look like a fugitive fraudster hiding from prosecution in Russia; he wants to look like a fighter against a totalitarian regime and a victim of the intrigues of the unscrupulous regime.
GOLDEN EGGS
The regime, which started this, will certainly not be among those who benefit from it, according to most analysts.
Yuri Skuratov, former Russian prosecutor general: "Firstly, the public views this attack as a political action, which only harms the cause of real crime-fighting. Secondly, this is damaging for our national prestige. In the eyes of the West, the targetted company was considered the most law-abiding company in Russia. But thanks to the efforts of the prosecutor's office, it now turns out that this company employs murderers and fraudsters. So the West is asking itself a question: if these are Russia's best representatives, what is the rest of the economy like?"
Alexei Koshmarov, political analyst and president of the Novokom Information-Analytical Center: "Fighting the business community carries the risk of causing an economic crisis that will strike at the citizenry. According to some assessments, capital flight from Russia will be at least $5 billion in the fourth quarter of this year. Overall losses to the economy could amount to $50-60 billion. And this is not the limit. But one has to give credit to the main figure in this incident, Mr. Khodorkovsky. He has indeed taken a tough stance in the conflict; but unlike Boris Berezovsky, he hasn't become hysterical. After all, he could easily have asked his American partners to launch a 'Western front' with all its consequences - an angry statement from the U.S. State Department, trade sanctions against Russia, and suspension of international deals like the one between TNK and British Petroleum..."
Other tycoons are lying low and awaiting developments. Alexander Shokhin says: "The entire business community will judge its prospects in Russia by the outcome of this action against one of the largest companies."
The Kremlin's support among the business elite is being undermined, analysts warn. Considering that the regional elite is not entirely satisfied with the federal government, Vladimir Putin might run into trouble - for example, he might have problems securing a convincing win in the first round of voting in 2004. Even the need for a second round, regardless of its outcome, would be viewed by many as the equivalent of a defeat for the Kremlin.
(Translated by P. Pikhnovsky)
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