Johnson's Russia List
#7192
22 May 2003
davidjohnson@erols.com
A CDI Project
www.cdi.org

[Contents:
  1. Reuters: Experts fear U.S.-Russia nuclear 'perfect storm.'
  2. Moscow Times: Larisa Naumenko, 350,000 New Cybernauts Each Month.
  3. AFP: Russia to shift to professional soldiers in war-torn Chechnya.
  4. AP: Chechen Amnesty Gets Tentative Approval.
  5. ITAR-TASS: Russia: number of diehard rebels in Chechnya put at 400.
  6. RIA Novosti: SOTHEBY'S AUCTIONS OFF RUSSIAN PAINTINGS AT BREATHTAKING
PRICES.
  7. AFP: Agreement on nuclear safety in Russia signed in Stockholm.
  8. Prime-TASS: Lehman Bros Eurasia Group says Russia's stability high in
May.
  9. gazeta.ru: WTO accession no longer a priority.
  10. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Andrew Kuchins to Direct 
Carnegie Moscow Center.
  11. The Japan Times: Constantine Pleshakov, Iraqi revival will cost Russia.
  12. Moscow News: Lyudmila Telen, Election Machine to Rev Up.
  13. Asia Times: Peter Lavelle, A neo-con in the romantic pragmatist's
court. 
  14. pravda.ru/Itoge: St. Petersburg to Celebrate 300th Anniversary. The
presidential 
envoy in Russia's Northwest talks about the celebration and what will happen 
afterwards. (Valentina Matviyenko)
  15. RosBusinessConsulting: St. Petersburg anniversary will resemble
Putin’s gala 
dinner.
  16. World Bank: St. Petersburg: Russia’s Window to the West. Wealth of
cultural 
assets can strengthen economic development.
  17. RIA Novosti: PRINCE OF KENT DOES NOT CONSIDER RUSSIAN ROADS BAD.
  18. Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russian Provinces Seen Gaining From Migration of
Scholars, 
Scientists From FSU.
  19. RFE/RL: Charles Carlson, Central Asia: Libraries In A Difficult Bind 
Following Soviet Collapse.
  20. Reuters: Pipelines may up Russia oil exports 40 pct-govt source.]
 
********

#1
Experts fear U.S.-Russia nuclear 'perfect storm'
By Carol Giacomo

WASHINGTON, May 21 (Reuters) - More than a decade after the Cold War, the
world faces a possible "perfect storm" of security factors that has
increased the risk of an accidental or unauthorized nuclear arms attack
between the United States and Russia, experts said on Wednesday.

A study by the RAND think tank, strongly endorsed by former Sen. Sam Nunn
and his nonprofit group The Nuclear Threat Initiative, paints a devastating
picture of Russia's strategic capabilities and challenges assumptions about
the degree to which better U.S.-Russian relations have improved security.

In the report and at a news conference, they called for world leaders to
address the problem and said this should be on the agenda when President
George W. Bush meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in Europe next month.

The post-Cold War decline in hostility has lessened chances of a
premeditated nuclear strike by Washington or Moscow but "on balance my
belief is that the risk has increased (and the ingredients could exist for)
a perfect storm in terms of a nuclear miscalculation or an accident," Nunn
told reporters.

The RAND study cites three reasons for this.

First, even with ratification of the new Moscow Treaty on reducing
long-range arms, the United States and Russia retain large nuclear forces
on "hair-trigger" alert, meaning they could be launched in minutes and
destroy both societies in an hour.

Second, economic and social problems have led to a situation where Russia
relies increasingly on nuclear arms. The number of Russian weapons that
could survive a U.S. first strike attack has declined dramatically and its
early warning system has deteriorated to the point of "serious disrepair."

Russia's submarine fleet has been "decimated" with only one or two vessels
at sea at any one time; few of its mobile missiles are deployed in the
field; and many of its intercontinental ballistic missiles are "well beyond
their planned service lives," the report said.

Moreover, "the breakdown of order in Russia, economic difficulties, and low
morale of its military personnel and the rise of organized crime and
separatist violence have increased concern" about nuclear force security,
it said.

Third, the vulnerability of Russian forces is enhanced by the increasing
capability of U.S. forces to deliver accurate and devastating strikes, the
report concluded.

'USE IT OR LOSE IT'

All this means "the incentive (for Moscow) is to launch quickly -- use it
or lose it," said David Mosher, one author of the study.

The report foresaw three scenarios: an intentional unauthorized nuclear
weapon launch by a terrorist or rogue commander; a missile launched by
mistake; and an intentional launch of nuclear weapons that is based on
incorrect or incomplete information.

Nunn, whose group works to reduce threats from nuclear, chemical and
biological arms, said the greatest risk of terrorists obtaining nuclear
weapons is in Russia, not Iraq or Iran.

But the Bush administration has not made securing Russia's nuclear
stockpiles a priority, he said.

Nunn noted that while running for the White House in 2000, Bush said the
United States "should remove as many weapons as possible from high-alert,
hair-trigger status" and promised that as president, he would ask for an
assessment on this proposal. But this has not been done, Nunn said.

The RAND study recommends ways to reduce the threat, including U.S.
assistance for improving Russia's early-warning radars or satellites;
moving U.S. attack submarines away from Russia; removing W-88 nuclear
warheads from Trident missiles; reducing day-to-day launch readiness of all
nuclear forces; establishing a joint early-warning system by placing
sensors outside U.S. and Russian missile silos.

********

#2
Moscow Times
May 22, 2003
350,000 New Cybernauts Each Month
By Larisa Naumenko 
Staff Writer 

Russians are flocking to the web like never before, with more than 350,000
new surfers venturing into cyberspace each month, according to a new survey.

The number of adults who have used the Internet at least once in the last
six months has jumped from 8.8 million in September to nearly 12 million
now, according to the author of the survey, Russkiye Fondy, a shareholder
in Rambler Internet Holding.

And Deputy Economic Development and Trade Minister Andrei Sharonov
predicted that the number could hit 20 million by 2005.

With roughly 11 percent of the adult population having experienced the web,
Russia would have ranked No. 22 in the world in terms of Internet
penetration, just above Argentina and Brazil but behind Spain and Italy as
of September 2002, according to a Public Opinion Fund survey using the
Nielsen/Net.Ratings method. In absolute numbers, Russia was No. 11 in the
world in September, just ahead of Australia and Spain and just behind
Brazil and Britain.

Russkiye Fondy said the study released this week was designed so
advertisers could better gauge the demographics of the country's virtual
community, identifying usage trends by age, gender and region.

"Studying the interests of the Internet audience is an important way to
increase the efficiency of advertising and a significant driver of the
creation and development of new Internet projects," said Yelena Binas, vice
president at Russkiye Fondy. 

Men dominate the Russian Internet two to one, according to the survey, with
most male surfers in the 25 to 34 and 20 to 24 age groups, or 23 percent
and 17 percent of the entire audience, respectively. The trend is similar
for women, with female users between the ages of 20 and 24 accounting for
12 percent of total users and those between 25 and 34 accounting for 10
percent.

In terms of how people use the web, the survey revealed a couple of general
trends, Binas said. The positive is that more people are interested in
family-related issues, such as children and health, while the negative is
the increasing interest in pornographic sites and decreasing interest in
culture, she said.

Pornography aside, men younger than 21 are mostly interested in music and
games, while those from 22 to 30 prefer to browse for information on cars,
technologies, security, hardware and banking. For men over 30, technology
and electronics are all the rage.

Women, perhaps not surprisingly, are more culturally oriented on the web.
Those younger than 21 are especially interested in music and radio, as well
as education, a category that is popular through the age of 27. For those
between 21 and 27, science and movies are particularly popular. Those older
than 27 are preoccupied with information related to children, employment,
cooking, pharmaceuticals, health, theater, travel and art. 

Geographically, the study was divided into four large groups -- people from
Moscow and St. Petersburg, regional users and foreign users of Russian
Internet resources. 

Muscovites are mostly interested in information related to banks, real
estate, legislation, transport and cars and disinterested in music and the
regions, according to the study. 

Most regional users tend to ignore politics in favor of weather forecasts
and information related to other cities and regions, technologies,
electronics and various companies.

Surfers from St. Petersburg, dubbed Russia's cultural capital, prefer
information on telecommunications, weather, real estate and personal hobbies.

Foreign surfers mostly track politics, history, religion and entertainment,
the study found.
 
********

#3
Russia to shift to professional soldiers in war-torn Chechnya 

MOSCOW, May 21 (AFP) - Russia will start to switch its 
15,000-strong 42nd motorized regiment, based permanently in war-torn
Chechnya, onto a 
professional, contract basis from next year, Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov
said 
Wednesday.

Ivanov, speaking to Russian journalists on a visit to Washington, also said 
that a regiment from the 76th parachute division based in Pskov would be 
dispatched to the breakaway republic within a few months, Interfax reported.

The Russian military last year launched the first pilot scheme for a 
professional army with this parachute division in western Russia. The 1.1
million 
currently enlisted in the armed forces are mainly poorly-trained conscripts.

"The paratroopers will be sent to Chechnya as part of a rotation," the 
defence minister said, denying that Russia was reinforcing its troop levels
in the 
southern territory, which has been hit by a renewed wave of guerrilla attacks.

"The burden on our armed forces in Chechnya is continuing to decrease," he 
said.

However, Ivanov conceded that Russia, which has 80,000 troops stationed in 
Chechnya where fighting has been raging since October 1999, was far from 
pacifying the rebel resistance.

"The last terrorist acts in Chechnya are not a dying agony of the rebels. 
Let's not delude ourselves, there is a lot to be done yet to achieve
stability 
and calm in the republic," he said.

On Monday last week, suicide bombers drove a truck packed with a tonne of 
explosives into a government building in the northern village of Znamenskoye, 
killing 60 people.

Then on Wednesday, 18 people were killed when a female suicide bomber blew 
herself up at a crowded Muslim religious event organized by the pro-Kremlin 
Unity Russia party in Iliskhan-Yurt, east of the capital Grozny.

*******

#4
Chechen Amnesty Gets Tentative Approval
May 21, 2003
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV

MOSCOW (AP) - The lower house of the Russian parliament gave initial approval 
Wednesday to President Vladimir Putin's proposed amnesty for Chechen rebels 
who lay down their arms, a measure that the Kremlin says is an important step 
toward peace and that critics say is virtually meaningless.

The bill, which the State Duma passed 354-18 in the first of three required 
readings, calls for amnesty for rebels who have given up arms over the past 
decade or who do so by Aug. 1. It would not cover foreigners fighting with
the 
insurgents or Russian citizens found to have committed de ending this
summer. It 
would not cover foreigners or Russian citizens guilty of murder, kidnapping, 
rape or other grave crimes.

It also would deny pardon to rebels found to have tried to kill federal 
police and servicemen. That could mean that any insurgent who took part in
the 
Chechen wars could be subject to prosecution, critics say.

Top Russian human rights activists also have assailed the measure as 
potentially creating rich ground for corruption by giving the pro-Moscow
Chechen 
administration and local security officials broad authority in implementing
it.

Opponents also criticize the bill for including those guilty of pilfering 
government funds earmarked for rebuilding Chechnya and including Russian 
servicemen found guilty of non-grave crimes.

Aslambek Aslakhanov, a lawmaker elected from Chechnya, had introduced his own 
amnesty bill that referred only to the rebels. He withdrew his motion 
Wednesday and proposed an amendment that would broaden Putin's amnesty.

Aslakhanov that most of 500 rebels who had benefited from the previous 
amnesty in 1999 were later persecuted and called for more guarantees for
those 
amnestied.

Heeding Putin's call to give top-priority attention to the bill, the Duma 
leaders planned to approve the amnesty Wednesday in all three readings - a
rush 
that some observers attributed to the Kremlin's desire to portray itself as 
peace-oriented at next week's summit with the European Union.

However, Putin's envoy to the Duma, Alexander Kotenkov, told lawmakers 
Wednesday that lawmakers could offer amendments to the bill and pass it by
June 6 - 
an apparent reflection of the controversy surrounding the measure.

Kotenkov also said that the amnesty could be extended from Aug. 1, as 
originally proposed, to Sept. 1 this year. He said that about 1,000 people,
nearly 
300 of them federal servicemen, could benefit from the amnesty.

Duma speaker Gennady Seleznyov called the amnesty an ``attempt aimed at 
reconciliation and transfer to a peaceful life,'' but added the rebels
could hardly 
be expected to ``run in droves to lay down arms.''

Putin proposed the amnesty after two suicide attacks last week in Chechnya 
that killed at least 78 people.

The attacks belied the Kremlin's frequent assertion that Chechnya was 
returning to normalcy, a claim that had increased after the reportedly
overwhelming 
Chechen approval in March of a Kremlin-backed constitution. The constitution 
confirms Chechnya's status as part of Russia, and Moscow portrayed the vote
as a 
key step toward peace.

At least six Russian servicemen were killed in the latest series of rebel 
attacks since Tuesday, said an official with the Moscow-appointed
administration 
for Chechnya who asked not be named.

Early Wednesday, unidentified assailants also killed seven civilians in the 
northern village of Kalinovskaya, some of whom worked for the local
pro-Moscow 
administration, the official said.

*******

#5
Russia: number of diehard rebels in Chechnya put at 400 
ITAR-TASS
 
Groznyy, 21 May: Some 400 rebel fanatics who will rather die than surrender 
to federal forces operate in Chechnya at present, officials from the
department 
of the Federal Security Service [FSB] for Chechnya told ITAR-TASS today, as 
the parliament was preparing to debate the presidential amnesty bills for the 
republic.

Another several hundred local residents take part in rebel attacks 
sporadically, and only for the sake of remuneration. They prefer to engage
in more 
profitable and less risky illegal oil production business instead.

This category of criminals is very likely to use the opportunities offered by 
the amnesty, FSB officials said.

Some 70 militants have ceased resistance in Chechnya since the beginning of 
2003, including those who committed serious offences.

********

#6
SOTHEBY'S AUCTIONS OFF RUSSIAN PAINTINGS AT BREATHTAKING PRICES 

LONDON, MAY 21 (from RIA Novosti's Sergei Kudasov and Alexander Smotrov) - 
Canvases from the 19th and early 20th century went off at exorbitant prices 
in the Sotheby's Russian auction today. 

Three paintings out of Fedor Chalyapin's collection - Boris Kustodiev's "A 
Beauty", Natalia Goncharova's "Bathing Boy" and Mikhail Nesterov's "A Vision 
to Child Bartholomew" were sold at a total exceeding 1.5 million pounds, 
spectacularly above the starting prices. Same about 50,000 pounds for 
Constantine Korovin's "A Lady in an Apple Orchard". 

Known as "father of Russian Impressionism", Korovin was a close friend of 
Fedor Chalyapin (1873-1938), and left many portraits of the renowned Russian 
bass singer and his daughters. 

Today's auction was record-breaking for the number of offers, and gathered an 
unprecedented crowd of experts and art dealers - for the most part, from 
Russia to purchase Russian art for wealthy Russian clients. 

********

#7
Agreement on nuclear safety in Russia signed in Stockholm
May 21, 2003
AFP

Eleven countries including Russia, the United States and France on Wednesday 
signed an agreement that for the first time outlines legal responsibilities 
governing nuclear waste assistance projects in Russia.

The agreement paves the way for international investments and cooperation 
agreements on nuclear waste management, such as the dismantling of nuclear 
submarines and icebreakers at former Russian naval bases in the Barents Sea.

The Multilateral Nuclear Environmental Programme in the Russian Federation 
Agreement (MNEPR) addresses legal issues governing access to sites, tax 
exemptions for industries working with nuclear safety in the region, and most 
importantly, liability. 

"We often abuse the word but we can refer to this as an historic event, for 
our children and our grandchildren," Swedish Foreign Minister Anna Lindh, who 
hosted the signing ceremony, told reporters.

"Now it will be possible to provide active support and help Russia begin to 
take care of the large quantities of atomic waste on the Kola Peninsula, much 
of it associated with the many decommissioned atomic submarines up there," 
she said.

"Now companies that have the capacity to play a part in this undertaking will 
have sufficient guarantees to dare to get involved in projects in this area," 
she added.

A protocol joined to the accord, which was not signed by the US, governs the 
thorny issue of companies' responsibility and compensation in the event of a 
catastrophe, nuclear or otherwise.

Under the terms of the protocol, companies will not be held legally 
responsible in the event of a catastrophe linked to their activities, except 
in the event of an intentional act, such as sabotage.

The US refused to sign the protocol, opting instead for a bilateral accord 
with Russia which clears US companies of any responsibility.

"We will continue to negotiate. We would have preferred for the United States 
to sign the protocol but I think we will be able to find a compromise 
solution," Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said.

The countries who signed the document in Stockholm on Wednesday were: 
Belgium, Britain, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, 
Russia, Sweden and the United States, as well as the European Union and the 
European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom).

********

#8
Lehman Bros Eurasia Group says Russia's stability high in May 

MOSCOW, May 21 /Prime-TASS/ -- Russia's state stability remained high in
May, dipping just one point from 62 to 61, according to the Lehman Brothers
Eurasia Group Stability Index (LEGSI) published on Wednesday.

March and April scores of 62 were the highest since data began being
collected in January 2000. An increase in the Economy component of the
index helped offset decreases in the Government, Society and Security
components.

For the past year, Russia’s overall rating has fluctuated only minimally
between the high end of Moderate Stability (40-60) and the low end of High
Stability (60-80).

Speculation that Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov’s and Economic Development
and Trade Minister German Gref’s positions could be in jeopardy, together
with the assassination of Liberal Russia party member Sergei Yushenkov,
brought the Government component score down.

The net negative in the Society component was due largely to three separate
school fires that killed more than 50 children and highlighted the
country’s decaying infrastructure. Geostrategic tensions were also in play
as Russia sparred with the U.S. and UK over Iraqi debt and oil contracts,
as well as the lifting of United Nations sanctions on Iraq.

The Economy component, the only component to shift upward, rose when the
government finally approved a tax cut plan after months of public debate
and the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, passed housing reform
legislation.

The LEGSI report noted that, in addition to approving tax reform plans, the
government also approved fiscal guidelines for 2004-2005 that envision
continuing budget surpluses and the creation of a Stabilization Fund.

“Public haggling on tax cuts among Economy Minister Gref, Finance Minister
(Alexei) Kudrin, and Prime Minister Kasyanov throughout the spring had the
deleterious effect of demonstrating the government’s lack of unity,” said
Leslie Powell, senior analyst at Eurasia Group. “However, the final
compromise result will likely be a net positive for the economy.”

“The Finance Ministry’s announcement that it would issue Eurobonds next
year, for the first time since the 1998 financial crisis, is also a welcome
sign that Russia’s economic situation has stabilized and is even thriving,”
added Alexander Zaslavsky, Russia analyst at Eurasia Group.

Powell and Zaslavsky are co-chairs of the Emerging Europe and Central Asia
Practice at Eurasia Group.

The LEGSI report noted that U.S.-Russia relations are normalizing in the
wake of severe disagreements over the war in Iraq and forecast that the
June 1 summit between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W.
Bush would help repair the damage caused to U.S.-Russia relations by the war.

“With the U.S. and Russia cooperating in a range of areas, including energy
diversification and intelligence sharing, the Iraq war is unlikely to
derail relations for any significant amount of time,” said Powell.

The LEGSI is a monthly risk assessment product introduced jointly in
October 2001 by Lehman Brothers, the investment bank, and Eurasia Group, a
New York-based political research and consulting firm.

Emerging-market countries are ranked on a scale from 0 to 100, with 100
representing the highest possible stability. The index currently covers 22
countries, with Russia tying for seventh place from the top with South
Africa in May. Hungary takes first place and Nigeria is at the bottom.

The LEGSI consists of variables clustered into four broad components:
Government, Society, Security, and Economy. 
 
********

#9
gazeta.ru
May 21, 2003
WTO accession no longer a priority 
By Svetlana Borozdina  

The Russian Ministry for Economic Development and Trade has confirmed that
there is no chance of Russia’s accession to the WTO this year. At the same
time officials did not rule out entry in 2004. So far, the WTO
member-states and Russia have failed to eliminate disagreements on issues
such as pricing polices for the energy sector and agriculture, as well as
currency control legislation. 

Deputy head of the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade and Russia’s
top negotiator on the WTO entry, Maxim Medvedkov, confirmed this week that
this year Russia would not join the organization. 

Russia has now parted ways with Ukraine, its closest partner in accession
talks to the World Trade Organization. President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma
said earlier that Ukraine still hopes to gain admission before the end of
2003, whereas Russia confirmed its course for the development of the
domestic processing industry. For that WTO entry and free competition are
not so necessary for Russian producers. 

In principle, certain experts said earlier that plans by German Gref’s
agency to speed up accession to the WTO was erroneous. In the opinion of
Gref’s opponents, entry could be successful if the country had a highly
developed processing industry and high exports of hi-tech products. It is
common knowledge that the situation in those sectors leaves much to be
desired, which President Putin again mentioned in his state-of-the-nation
address to the Federal Assembly this year. 

According to Maxim Medvedkov, the next round of talks with the WTO
workgroup is due on July 7, and no further talks are expected until
October-November. As long as the WTO members are engaged in global talks on
the liberalization of trade regimes, they will not have much time for
Russia, and Moscow ''should take advantage of the pause to adjust its
position''. 

By adjusting position Medvedkov means, first and foremost, two
requirements, which have caused particularly heated debates at the talks on
Russia’s entry. 

Firstly, this concerns the pricing of energy. Russia still supplies oil and
gas to the domestic market at prices much lower than those at which they
are exported. WTO members claim this amounts to a subsidy and demand that
the prices be the same for both domestic and foreign buyers. That issue is
to be discussed at the governmental session on May 22, but it is linked
with the energy policy strategy, work on which has yet to be completed. 

Another stumbling block at the entry talks is the tariff policy for the
agricultural sector. Gazeta.Ru’s sources in the Ministry for Economic
Development and Trade confirmed that disagreements are so serious that a
solution may never be found. 

As for disagreements on the tariff policies in the domestic agricultural
sector, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has already moved to defend Russia’s
interests, saying in late April that ''for certain countries'' WTO
requirements in that sphere ''are very sensitive and painful'', since they
''want to supply their produce to the developed countries’ markets, which
are seriously protected by barriers and subsidies''. Russia, which has
eventually become a grain exporter, considers itself among such ''certain
countries''. 

In addition to disagreements on the energy pricing and tariffs in the
agricultural sector, another evident stumbling block on Russia’s way to WTO
membership is the liberalization of currency control legislation. 

The governmental bill on currency regulation and control, according to
Maxim Medvedkov, arouses censure from the WTO, for it allows the government
and the Central Bank to seriously restrict capital flow. The deadline for
raising those restrictions, set for January 1, 2007, too, raises doubts:
Deputy Economic Minister Arkady Dvorkovich has already expressed the
opinion that the government and the Central Bank must consider lifting the
restrictions earlier. 

Other issues on which Russia and the WTO still have disagreements concern
particular types of goods. Presently, according to Russia’s top negotiator,
those disagreements concern luxury items, such as diamonds, platinum and
alcohol. Russia considers it unacceptable to fully liberalize trade in
those goods. Alcohol, holds Medvedev, ''is too important for the budget and
for the public health'' to give up partial state regulation of its trade. 

At the same time, on certain matters the sides have successfully reached
agreement. The ministry confirmed that 95 per cent of Russian legislation
has already been brought into line with WTO regulations, and the remaining
5 per cent will be eliminated by the end of the Duma’s spring session. 

One of the main achievements has been the adoption of the new version of
the Tax Code, which stipulates for WTO provisions such as the creation of a
'green corridor' for exporters. Currently, the lower house is reviewing
draft bills on anti-dumping measures and state control over foreign trade.
Thus, in terms of legislation Russia is likely to have removed all
obstacles on its path to the WTO by mid-summer.  

********

#10
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
For Immediate Release: May 14, 2003
Contact: Carmen MacDougall, 202-939-2319, cmacdougall@ceip.org

Andrew Kuchins to Direct Carnegie Moscow Center

Jessica T. Mathews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, announced today that Andrew Kuchins, currently senior associate and
director of the Washington, DC-based Russian and Eurasian Program, will
become director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. He replaces Robert Nurick,
who is leaving in August.

"Andy takes the helm as the Center approaches its ten-year anniversary,
having far exceeded its initial goal of serving as a model for independent
policy research in the former Soviet Union. We'll tap his leadership and
expertise in Russian and Eurasian affairs to set a new strategic course for
the Center's work and role," said Mathews. "Bob has steered the Moscow
Center well over the last two years, creating new management and funding
mechanisms and ensuring that the Moscow Center offers innovative ideas that
make an impact."

Andrew C. Kuchins has been director of the Carnegie Endowment's Russian and
Eurasian Program for three years. He conducts research and writes on
Russian foreign and security policy. Kuchins served from 1997 to 2000 as
associate director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation
at Stanford University. From 1993 to 1997, he was a senior program officer
at the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. From 1989 to 1993, he
was executive director of the Berkeley-Stanford Program on Soviet and Post-
Soviet Studies.

He edited Russia after the Fall (Carnegie, 2002) and coedited Russia and
Japan: An Unresolved Dilemma Between Distant Neighbors with Tsuyoshi
Hasegawa and Jonathan Haslam (UC Regents, 1993). Kuchins is a member of the
governing council of the Program on Basic Research and Higher Education in
Russia, the advisory committee of Washington Profile, and the editorial
board of the journal Demokratizatsiya. He graduated from Amherst College
and holds an M.A. and Ph.D. from the Nitze School of Advanced International
Studies, Johns Hopkins University.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace founded the Carnegie Moscow
Center in 1993 as the first public policy research center of its size and
kind in the former Soviet Union. Today, it is one of the premier centers
for policy analysis and discussion. The Center boasts a staff of 40, all of
whom are Russian, except for an American director. The Center produces a
wide range of publications, including the quarterly Pro et Contra. 

For more information, visit www.ceip.org/russia and www.carnegie.ru

*******

#11
The Japan Times
May 20, 2003
Iraqi revival will cost Russia
By CONSTANTINE PLESHAKOV
Constantine Pleshakov, a former member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is 
a freelance writer. 

MOSCOW -- It is a commonplace to say the war in Iraq was not only about 
former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein but also about oil. No matter how 
dangerous Hussein's regime was and how badly the White House needed an 
impressive victory for the 2004 elections, oil -- as today's key commodity -- 
was very much on U.S. President George W. Bush's mind when he commanded the 
attack on Iraq. Yet, for some countries, oil is practically the only part of 
the Iraqi equation they are interested in; Russia is a good example.

In 2002, Russia's economy grew by 4 percent. This was much trumpeted by 
President Vladimir Putin and the media, but growth is mainly being fueled by 
increased oil and gas exports. Blessed with an abundance of "black and blue 
gold" -- as oil and gas are known among Russian journalists -- the nation can 
endure practically any kind of economic mismanagement.

Oil exports are paying Russia's bills -- from retired people's pensions to 
Putin's new opulent residences, and from modern tanks to St. Petersburg's 
300th anniversary festivities. However, the war in Iraq may change all that.

In 2002, Russia was the world's No. 2 oil producer; Iraq came in 10th. Yet, 
in terms of oil reserves, Iraq is No. 3 with 112.5 billion barrels; Russia is 
No. 8 with 60 billion barrels. While Iraq remained an international pariah 
and traditional oil exporters like Saudi Arabia kept oil prices relatively 
high, Russia was dumping its oil on Western markets cheaply, thus raising 
important revenues for its struggling economy.

If postwar Iraq becomes a major oil producer, Saudi Arabia could lose lots of 
money, while Russia Inc. might go out of business altogether. A decline in 
oil exports could take the whole Russian economy down. A number of 
pessimistic experts in Moscow already predict another financial default in 
early 2004 -- like the one the country experienced in 1998.

The first months of 2004 are going to be a crucial time for Putin, if not for 
Russia. In March 2004, he faces re-election. Right now he doesn't have any 
competition, and victory seems guaranteed by his assertive nationalist 
rhetoric, the patriotic brouhaha and the nation's newfound economic stability.

Yet the recent military parades on Red Square (replays of a belligerent 
Soviet tradition) and theatrical TV addresses are poor substitutes for a 
steady cash flow. If the Russian economy collapses one more time, Russian 
voters are likely to vote with their stomachs, not with their hearts, and 
Putin could find himself in big trouble.

The forecast for Iraqi oil exports remains cloudy. Iraq can become a major 
oil exporter only if patronized, if not temporarily governed, by the United 
States. Still, the American victory in Iraq is a fragile one. U.S. troops are 
being attacked by urban guerrillas and angry protesters all the time. Last 
week's bombing of Western compounds in Saudi Arabia indicates that terrorist 
networks in the Middle East have not been uprooted, despite optimistic 
statements by American officials.

Washington recently decided to replace leading members of the U.S. governing 
team tasked with rebuilding Iraq, a move that has contributed to a general 
spirit of disillusionment and uncertainty following America's victory. Iraqis 
cannot agree on a form of government either. The only leaders that seem to 
enjoy a modicum of popularity are clearly anti-Western, antisecular and 
antidemocratic. None of the erstwhile Iraqi exiles imported to their homeland 
by the U.S. appears charismatic enough to save the day. Iraq may well remain 
a country in turmoil for quite a while, or it may choose to become a 
xenophobic Islamic republic. Neither option augurs well for the export of 
significant amounts of oil to the West.

An unstable Iraq is both good and bad news for the Kremlin. If conditions in 
Iraq are such that it can be discarded as a competitor, what will become of 
the multibillion-dollar Iraqi debt owed to Russia and the contracts signed to 
develop new oil fields in Iraq?

True, the debt and contracts look problematic anyway, since any new Iraqi 
government will try to annul them on the grounds that it can't be held 
responsible for the excesses of its former dictator. In diplomacy, though, 
compromise is always an option. If Iraq doesn't get a stable government, 
there will be no diplomacy, no compromise and no solution whatsoever.

Meanwhile, the world's mass media, overwhelmed by the dramas in the Middle 
East, have stopped reporting news from Central Asia even though, until 
recently, the region's oil resources had been regarded as the biggest 
strategic resource for the West. The story of Central Asian oil is a mystery.

Shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the leaders of 
Central Asian nations, supported by a number of big oil companies, proclaimed 
the Caspian Sea to be a new oil and gas treasure-trove. In fierce 
competition, American, British and Russian companies started exploring the 
new terrain. Each new pipeline made headline news, and countries like 
Kazakstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan appeared as a fresh alternative to 
Middle Eastern as well as Russian oil resources.

Around 2000, the Caspian Sea oil rush began receding. According to some 
reports, actual oil resources had been grossly overrated, and transportation 
problems proved to be tougher than expected. Now, with Iraq and much of the 
Middle East in mayhem, debates about Caspian Sea oil will resurface. It is 
unclear what this will mean for Russia.

For the U.S., the Iraqi crisis is an issue of prestige, security, authority 
and, yes, revenues. For Russia, it is mostly an issue of money. The Russian 
wallet may be made of showy stuff (Red Square parades are not unlike 
expensive leather), but it is still very thin.

Constantine Pleshakov, a former member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is 
a freelance writer. 

********

#12
Moscow News 
May 21-27, 2003
Election Machine to Rev Up
By Lyudmila Telen 

On 17 May, in his address to the nation, Vladimir Putin announced in fact the 
results of the December 2003 election to the State Duma: United Russia is 
expected to win a decisive and complete victory. 

It also became clear that the business plan intended to achieve that result 
had been written, signed and sealed. Time came to announce it to those who 
would put it into effect - provide the funds, control the "administrative 
resource," and count the votes. Before, the organizers of the future campaign 
were not exactly in a tizzy. They saw the Duma election's outcome as of minor 
significance. But now the president's proposal has turned a routine procedure 
into an epoch-making event: The country will in fact elect not only the Duma 
but also the government. So nothing must be left to chance. 

It will be recalled that six months before the election the Communist Party 
leads the field in the opinion polls. Before May 17, however, its victory was 
of ideological significance only. However great the Communists' success in 
the race, their impact on the country's political life would remain basically 
the same, as Kremlin bureaucrats had long learned to block parliamentary 
initiatives of the left. Now the situation has changed dramatically. The 
threat of the formation of a Red government is real - and the Communists' 
victory is therefore impossible by definition. 

United Russia must win a majority of seats in parliament, if only because the 
left has no other real opponents. It is also more or less clear how this 
result will be achieved. 

Of prime importance will be the pumping of funds into the PR structures whose 
job it will be to turn United Russia leaders into competitive merchandise. 
Next, the administrative resource. Finally there are the election committees, 
which have developed in recent years about a dozen practically legal methods 
of eliminating inconvenient politicians from the race. It is not ruled out, 
either, that the previously untouchable "survival kit" - Putin's direct 
support for United Russia - will be tapped. 

The job in hand is no simple one. The campaign will clearly focus on 
criticizing the present government as a symbol of Russian bureaucracy. The 
"party of power" will now be expected, it seems, to lead the assault on the 
cabinet, stealing a march on Yabloko and the Communists, who are calling for 
a vote of no confidence in the government. Unlike the oppositionists, though, 
United Russia needs the government's resignation like a hole in the head. No, 
let the government toil while Russia's main party wages a war on it, for want 
of anything else to attract the electorate with. It has no brilliant program, 
still less a brilliant leader, and no earthly chance of forming a political 
rather than technical cabinet of ministers capable of achieving an economic 
breakthrough. 

*******

#13
Asia Times
May 20, 2003
A neo-con in the romantic pragmatist's court 
By Peter Lavelle 

MOSCOW - After months of tough words, traded accusations and barbs, US 
President George Bush is expected to meet his counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in 
St Petersburg as part of the city's 300th birthday anniversary on June 1. 

Three hundred years ago, Peter the Great founded the city as part of his plan 
to modernize Russia and turn it to the West. Three years ago, a man from that 
same city found himself catapulted into the Kremlin with a mandate to salvage 
Russia from the upheavals of post-communism disintegration. After September 
11, 2001, this man boldly announced that Russia would once again look to 
become part of the West. Now, in three weeks' time, Bush will attempt to 
explain to Putin what it means to be modern and part of the West - at least 
in his eyes. 

The good news about the upcoming mini-summit is the fact that it will be held 
at all, considering recent US-Russia squabbles. The long and meandering road 
US-Russian relations have taken since September 11 is in need of some very 
sober re-assessment. Putin and Bush rushed into a new relationship like two 
lovers who had decided to elope without considering the consequences of their 
actions. On Bush's part, the relationship was a small component of carrying 
out his messianic vision of good conquering evil throughout the world. For 
Putin, hitching up with a very powerful partner bent on destroying 
international terrorist groups was a convenient cover for a failed policy in 
Chechnya and assisted Russia's return to global respectability. 

Then the real world showed up and spoiled the love-in. Russia and the US have 
a number of shared interests, but they also have some extremely prickly 
differences, most of which are over conflicting geopolitical interests 
generated in part by ideological differences. In the wake of the US-led war 
against Iraq, the mini-summit will finally demonstrate to the star-struck 
couple that their elopement was a marriage between an American "neo-con" and 
a Russian "romantic pragmatist" in search of different destinies. An odd 
combination, but there is no reason such a relationship could not be made to 
succeed. Uncomfortable marriages, as many of us can attest, can last a very 
long time. 

The get-together will inevitably be declared an official success, taking into 
account the vagueness that unites the visions of the new world order held by 
both heads of state. This ideological odd couple will agree to disagree on a 
number of policy issues, but will laud the importance of the bilateral 
relationship for building a mutually beneficial future. Due to shared 
interests, neither side has much room in which to do otherwise. 

Both Moscow and Washington are intensely interested in national security, and 
with good reason. Bush's vision of a righteous new world order is in fact 
creating multiple new enemies for the US. For its part, Putin's Russia has 
few real friends in the world, not to mention a number of enemies within the 
country itself. Fear of enemies - real, imagined or in the making - pulls 
both countries together. Fear transcends any political ideology. 

The very real danger of loose nukes and other weapons of mass destruction 
also gives the awkward couple a reason to make a re-assessed relationship 
work as well. (Though both are loath to admit it - the US more than Russia - 
the new world of uncertainty is partly the result of the almost half a 
century of mutual confrontation between the countries that created most of 
these weapons in the first place.) No two countries know more about the need 
to secure them, and even have them destroyed. 

Bilateral energy relations and trade are also compelling reasons for the US 
and Russia to recast their recently troubled relationship, all the more so 
because strengthened business contacts can help soften the impact of 
state-to-state political disagreements, like over the issue of Iraq over the 
past few months. These areas of cooperation - and there are more - are a 
testament to the fact that a neo-conservative and a romantic pragmatist can 
work together. Ideology is of limited importance when specific and mutually 
beneficial issues are considered. It is on issues like these that the 
"new-new bilateral relationship" should be based. After September 11, 
US-Russia relations lunged into a realm of unreasonable expectations that 
could not be realized due to differing interests in the world, and even 
ideological approaches. It is better to bring the relationship to a more 
pragmatic level. 

In the end, Putin's romantic pragmatism will prevail over Bush's 
neo-conservatism. Putin will bend and accept Bush's agenda in areas that do 
not significantly impact negatively on Russia's interests. The proper 
definition of "international terrorism" will probably never be agreed on, 
though it will always carry emotional and rhetorical weight. Though Bush, for 
better or worse, has a vision for the world - even for the destiny of mankind 
- his geopolitical agenda is open-ended and open to conflicting interests. 
Putin has a much more specific and circumspect agenda. His primary concern is 
Russia's interests. His romantic pragmatism puts Russia first, while 
retaining the flexibility to move in a swiftly changing world more and more 
controlled by the United States. 

This is where neo-conservatism and romantic pragmatism meet and can find a 
common ground - at least when it comes to finding Russia's place in the 
world. Bush's America may have no need for France, but it cannot 
realistically ignore Russia for long, and Russia certainly does not want to 
be ignored by America either. Both countries have reasons to maintain a 
strained relationship instead of continuing threats of an impending and 
confrontational divorce that would be in the longer-term interests of neither 
party. 

It is quite appropriate that Bush and Putin are meeting in St Petersburg. It 
is a city of emotion and is known for its extreme ideological rigidity. It is 
also a city of sophistication, and has a forward-looking heritage. The 
Bush-Putin encounter will demonstrate a little of both qualities. Bush and 
Putin are on a mission, though each in his own way. There is no better place 
to meet to hash out what a mutually beneficial, though by no means easy, 
relationship will be all about. 

Peter Lavelle is a Moscow-based analyst and author of the weekly e-newsletter 
Untimely Thoughts. 

*******

#14
pravda.ru 
May 21, 2003
St. Petersburg to Celebrate 300th Anniversary 
The presidential envoy in Russia's Northwest talks about the celebration and 
what will happen afterwards 

"The whole of Russia built the city of St. Petersburg, the city of Peter the 
Great; the world's best architects created their buildings there. The 
preservation of this national value is not the goal of one city only," the 
presidential envoy in the Northwest of Russia, Valentina Matviyenko, said. 

Just a few days are left before the celebration of the 300th anniversary of 
St. Petersburg. Will the celebration become a starting point for a new
stage of 
the city's development? Valentina Matviyenko, presidential envoy in the 
Northwest of Russia, spoke about it in an interview with the magazine Itogi. 

What is your evaluation of the preparations for the celebration of St. 
Petersburg's 300 years? 

A lot of things have been already done in the city. I think that a lot of 
people who come to see the city can already see the results of that work. The 
restoration of the historical center, the development of the city
infrastructure, 
new roads - citizens will soon have an opportunity to appreciate all these 
things at their true value. There have been a lot of complaints made about
the 
miserable condition of buildings and roads. I do not want to say that 
everything that has been done so far is enough for the city. All the work
will continue 
after the celebration is over. As for an evaluation, I do not think that now 
is the time for it. 

If you were just a guest at the holiday, which things would you prefer to see?

If I were just a guest, I would find myself in a rather difficult situation. 
St. Petersburg is an extremely interesting city. I would try my best to see 
everything on the program. 

What is the budget for the holiday? Which projects were funded from the 
federal and which ones from the local treasury? The Clearing House and other 
auditing departments have determined several occasions of untargeted use of
the 
funds. 
A lot of money has been assigned for the event. However, a lot more money is 
needed to make the city look as it should. The whole of Russia built the city 
of St. Petersburg, the city of Peter the Great; the best architects in the 
world created their buildings there. The preservation of this national
value is 
not the goal of one city only. I think that Russia owes a lot to our great 
city. As far as untargeted use of funds is concerned, let's get back to
this issue 
after the celebration is over. The Clearing House will work on it. 

What is going to happen in the city after the holiday? Will the attention 
paid to you by the federal center decrease?

That is not a good way to put the question. One might think that St. 
Petersburg is a disabled city that can not live without Moscow's help. The
city 
possesses a huge potential and it should realize itself. We should not have
an 
inferiority complex. Yet, there is a need for help from the federal center,
and I 
am sure that assistance will be rendered. I hope that, when foreign guests 
leave, new investment projects will come into the city together with a better 
service level, appropriate to the new international status of the city. 

St. Petersburg is the most European city in Russia. Does thisthis give it any 
advantages from the point of view of economic development; in attracting 
foreign investments, for instance? 

St. Petersburg was originally meant to be a "window to Europe." The city has 
already become Russia's face to the whole world. Foreigners- impression of 
Russia depends a lot on what they see in St. Petersburg. The city was built
for 
close and mutually beneficial cooperation with foreign countries. The city
has 
certain advantages - the geographical position of the city is an example, 
which illustrates its investment attractiveness. The cultural value and the 
historical legacy of St. Petersburg are definitely a great advantage. There
are a 
lot of advantages, and it is important to use them to the maximum. 

Do you think that it would be good to make St. Petersburg the capital of 
Russia? Is it possible to do this partially, to have the Russian parliament
based 
in St. Petersburg, for example? 

This idea is not new. There is no common opinion on this question. I 
personally think that there is no need to do that v Moscow handles the role
of the 
Russian capital well. Yet, it would be good for St. Petersburg to take on a
part 
of Moscow's functions. This would give an incentive for the development of
the 
city's infrastructure, which would eventually improve people's living 
standards. 

Speaking about other problems, why do you think St. Petersburg Gov. Vladimir 
Yakovlev refused to run for reelection? 

I think that the governor, as a person devoted to democratic values, made 
such a decision Out of concern for the law. 

Are you going to announce your candidacy for the post of governor? If yes, 
what will your election campaign be like? 

I have said it before many times and I will say it again: there is a lot of 
time left until the election, and it is too early to talk about it now. I
think 
that everyone who cares about the future of St. Petersburg has one goal: to 
provide normal conditions for the whole city, to have stability in the city's 
administration, and so on and so forth. 

A woman as a governor, a woman as a presidential envoy, is a unique 
phenomenon in Russian politics. In addition, you have experience of working
in the 
government. How do you feel in this role?

I can sense a trace of male chauvinism in your question. It is generally 
believed that a woman, as a politician in Russia, is not capable of
achieving any 
real results. In fact, this is not true. There are very few women in Russian 
political life, it is true, and, perhaps, women are not willing to go into 
politics themselves. But look at the women who have succeeded in the field of 
politics: Lyubov Sliska, Irina Khakamada, and many others. When I was a vice 
premier in the Russian government, I worked with a team of other people.
This is 
exactly what I do now as presidential envoy in the Northwest. It is
impossible 
to settle such responsible goals alone. A leader is always supposed to have 
someone else to help them.

What does St. Petersburg mean to you personally? 

St. Petersburg is the main city in my life. When a schoolgirl, I decided that 
I wanted to live my entire life in this wonderful city. When I could finally 
say to myself that I was a resident of Leningrad, it was one of the happiest 
moments of my life. I treasure the Hermitage, the Pertropavlovskaya Fortress, 
the Neva River. A lot of things in the city mean much to me, especially the 
atmosphere of St. Petersburg: the low sky, rains and so on. My whole life is 
connected with this city. 

Itogi 

*******

#15
RosBusinessConsulting 
May 21, 2003
St. Petersburg anniversary will resemble Putin’s gala dinner 

What is happening in St. Petersburg in the week prior to the 300th
anniversary, irritates the citizens of the city all the more, the
Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper reports. It seems that the large scale
celebration is meant not for St. Petersburgers and Russians but for many
VIP guests, and it will resemble the world gala dinner in the name of the
Russian President. 

In the period from May 23 to May 31, forty five heads of state will visit
St. Petersburg, including US President George Bush, British Prime Minister
Tony Blair, French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard
Schroeder. Each of them will be escorted by a large entourage. For example,
George Bush will be accompanied by 700 people. The Federal Guard Service
will be in charge of the city for several days. It will also control
law-enforcement forces, numbering 40,000 people. A good half of them was
sent to the city to ensure order during the festival. 

According to the newspaper, it is transport problems that will be the
greatest inconvenience for local citizens. Speaking at a news briefing,
Sergey Bugrov, head of the Traffic Police Department, presented a roadmap,
on which places highlighted in red indicate that they will be difficult to
pass through for ordinary car drivers on May 20-31, and closed altogether
during the summit. There are so many red marks on the map that the desire
arises to refrain from travelling by car during this period. Private cars
parked curbside in downtown areas will be towed away, not to hamper the
passage of important guests. A special timetable has been developed for the
passage of armored cars, so that they would not get in the way of VIP
motorcades. It will be also difficult to fill up a car during the indicated
period, as gasoline trucks delivering fuel to gas stations will not be
allowed to enter the city at night, for security reasons. 

The Pulkovo airport will be closed for all flights except official
delegations, starting on May 29. The city’s seaport will be closed for one
week, and entry into the Neva will be restricted. 

As for the metro, its work will also be affected. According to the
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, metro stations close to government roads will be closed. 

*******

#16
World Bank
St. Petersburg: Russia’s Window to the West 
Wealth of cultural assets can strengthen economic development 
  
May 20, 2003—With 4.7 million people, St. Petersburg is the second largest
urban locale in Russia. The city, which in 2003 will celebrate the 300th
anniversary of its founding by Tsar Peter the Great, was the capital of the
Russian Empire until 1917. Designated by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site in
1990, it is home to some of the world's most important art treasures, and
displays one of Europe's largest concentrations of eighteenth and
nineteenth century civil and religious architecture. The city was, and
still is, an important manufacturing center. As Russia's largest port in
the West, it is also a strategic gateway for exports to, and imports from,
the markets of the European Union and the Western hemisphere.

However, like other regions and cities in Russia, St. Petersburg has had to
weather the fundamental structural changes brought about by the
disintegration of the Soviet Union and the transition of the last decade.
Its wealth of culture and art has been underutilized, and economic growth
in the city is not yet at an optimal level. The recently approved St.
Petersburg Economic Development Project will work to address these
challenges by supporting both aspects of the city’s valuable assets:
cultural and economic.

The hybrid loan is a unique combination of two components: adjustment and
investment. On the adjustment side, the St. Petersburg Economic Development
Loan will enhance the city's prospects for sustainable economic growth, and
allow it to more fully exploit its position as Russia's "Window to the
West." "This project is an attempt to support a city that is undertaking a
broad range of reforms," says Russia Country Manager and Co-Task Manager
for the project Richard Clifford.

Fundamentally, the project aims to improve the business climate in St.
Petersburg. It will support small and medium enterprises by bringing the
city into compliance with federal licensing regulations; analytical work
undertaken by the city and the Bank has found that the current burdensome
regulatory and licensing environment is one of the most critical obstacles
to attracting new businesses. The project will also promote the development
of land and real estate markets by supporting the adoption of an urban
development code to bring zoning regulations to the city.

These reforms will also enable St. Petersburg to take greater advantage of
its unique position as one of Russia's top centers of culture and the arts
and create the basis for developing tourism as a key element of future
economic growth. "The project will support St. Petersburg’s transition to
an economy that is much more broadly based on services and takes advantage
of the city’s status as a World Heritage site," says Clifford.

On the investment side, the project will, among other things, finance
repair and rehabilitation that will help protect historical buildings of
several major cultural institutions (including the Marinsky Theater, the
Hermitage, and the State Russian Museum) from further physical
deterioration; increase the exhibition and activities capacity of the
institutions; improve the operational safety and efficiency of the
facilities for both visitors and personnel; and provide higher safety for
artworks on display from fire, theft or other hazards.

Many of St. Petersburg’s cultural assets have been in major disrepair as a
result of years of neglect. "Security and safety at the Marinsky Theater is
particularly bad," says Urban Management Specialist Jean-Jacques
Soulacroup, who is the Co-Task Manager of the loan. "The fire system and
electrical system are not up-to-date, and emergency exits are lacking.
Every available space at the theater is used for storage, and there are
historical costumes piled everywhere. If placed on display, the costumes
could attract many visitors, but now they are a fire hazard. The project
will reorganize the theater and rehabilitate the safety and security
systems to a world-class level."

Both Clifford and Soulacroup stress that the loan helps the city address
two of the key issues that will underpin growth over the next decade. The
investments in the cultural assets are needed to strengthen the city’s
unique strategic asset as a world renowned center for culture. Policy
reforms are also needed to foster the growth of small businesses in the
cultural sector and tourism infrastructure. The Bank’s unique ability to
support policy reform and provide critically needed finance to preserve
these cultural assets are essential elements of the support for the city.

The project also includes a Cultural Investment Facility, a competitive
grant-based fund to which any cultural institution in the St. Petersburg
vicinity can apply for financing. The Facility will fund small-scale
activities that would help the recipients to increase their commercial
revenue, improve the accessibility to cultural assets or activities to the
public (such as through installation of special facilities for the
handicapped), and carry out critically needed small investments for the
preservation of buildings and assets including security systems, other
protective equipment, and restorative emergency repair works. These grants
will not exceed $200,000 in order to obtain as many proposals as possible
from all eligible local cultural institutions.

For more information on the World Bank’s work in Russia, visit
www.worldbank.org.ru.
 
*******

#17
PRINCE OF KENT DOES NOT CONSIDER RUSSIAN ROADS BAD 

YEKATERINBURG, May 21. /From RIA Novosti Ural correspondent Alexei Murzin/. - 
The 80-year-ald vintage Bentley automobiles that are taking part in the motor 
race from Yekaterinburg to St.Petersburg have no problems moving on Russian 
roads. The Russian roads are not so bad as Russians themselves think, said 
His Royal Highness Prince Michael of Kent at a meeting with Yuri Trutnev, the 
governor of the Perm region, the Urals, when commenting on the first day of 
the race. 

The aim of the British racers is to acquaint the world community with Russia, 
as at present foreigners know only two Russian cities, Moscow and 
St.Petersburg, having no idea about the provinces, the Prince said. 

Yesterday the participants of the vintage automobile race "To Meet 
St.Petersburg's 300th Anniversary" arrived in Perm from Yekaterinburg, the 
Urals. The 3300-km route goes via Perm, Izhevsk /the Volga region/, Kazan, 
Nizhny Novgorod /the Volga region/, and Moscow, RIA Novosti learned from the 
executive directorate of the race. 

About 50 people together with the Prince of Kent are taking part in the race. 
12 sports automobiles travel on Russian roads for the first time. The oldest 
one, Bentley Vauxhall, is 82. The youngest of the cars, a Cadillac, was 
produced in 1941. All automobiles belong to the English Bentley retro club. 

Retro automobiles use AI-92 petrol with special addition to adjust modern 
fuel to old engines. 

On Wednesday the cars will leave for Izhevsk. The race will finish on June 
2nd in St.Petersburg during the official celebrations of the city's 
anniversary. 

*******

#18
Russian Provinces Seen Gaining From Migration of Scholars, Scientists From
FSU  

Rossiyskaya Gazeta 
14 May 2003
Article by Svetlana Karpekova: "To Permanent Residence in Russia:  
Scholarly Migrants Could Transform Life in the Provinces" 

Talk about scholars' paltry wages and the brain 
drain has become commonplace in discussions of the prospects for Russian 
scientific thought.   These problems remain and they are increasingly 
acute but it would be wrong to claim that, while losing scientific 
cadres, Russia has not acquired anything in recent years. 

According to various estimates, between 100,000 and 500,000 scholars have 
left Russia in post-perestroyka times.   In the early 1990s, however, a 
different kind of migration process began -- scholars were leaving 
republics of the former USSR not to the West but to Russia and by no 
means necessarily to Moscow.   Strange as it may seem, against the 
backdrop of a mass exodus toward the distant West, many "internal 
migrants" have found themselves in demand in Russian cities.   It is 
true, though, that there are currently no statistics on this migration. 

Neither the Russian Academy of Sciences nor its regional branches were 
able to quote even an approximate number of the scholars and experts who 
have supplemented Russian scientific organizations.   Nevertheless, there 
are now whole institutions in the country that took shape and are 
successfully operating thanks to the new "brains."   For instance, the 
Institute of Physical and Technical Problems, which is now operating 
here, once moved practically in its entirety from Riga to Dubna.   
Moreover, in addition to strengthening our scientific potential and 
developing promising research, the people who became migrants through 
politicians' will have breathed new life into the small and medium-sized 
Russian cities where most of them arrived from Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, 
Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. 

"These cities must be lifted up," Sergey Nikolayev, deputy director of 
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs department of fellow countrymen's 
affairs, believes.   "They are getting old and weak and there is no 
renewal of the intelligentsia there -- young people aspire to leave.   
People from within the former Soviet Union are prepared to live in these 
cities, bringing with them experience, knowledge, and a new view of 
particular problems." 

As former pro-rector of Tashkent University, Sergey Nikolayev has 
first-hand knowledge of the situation -- the tectonic movements in 
society affected his destiny too. 

"Russia was not ready for a big wave of immigration in the early 1990s," 
he says.   "But it was ready for pinpoint migration, specifically an 
influx of intellectual brains." 

A fresh example is the until recently closed Severodvinsk nuclear 
vessel-building center, the cradle of our submarine fleet.   As it is 
possible to guess, humanities intelligentsia used to be in short supply 
here.   Now it is impossible to get a job as a teacher of Russian 
language and literature -- there are no vacancies even in pre-school 
establishments.   What happened?   A branch of Pomorskiy Lomonosov State 
University was opened here and the backbone of the branch's teachers was 
mainly made up by immigrants from Central Asia.   In a few years, the 
local young people have already been trained as new buds of teachers and 
humanities graduates.   Now around one-fourth of the Pomorskiy State 
University Severodvinsk branch's professorial and teaching line-up are 
newcomers; the rest are young people, generally graduate students. 

"We have almost a full 'set' so we will still talk to doctors of science 
about employment but no longer to candidates," Branch Director Nikolay 
Nikolayev says describing its cadre situation.   "Severodvinsk was always 
geared toward the technical intelligentsia and someone had to 'nourish' 
the soil for the humanities.   It was done by the people who arrived, 
linguists.   Now we are training cadres for the oblast and the whole 
northwest because the city's needs are fully met.   To us, the city's 
'atmosphere' seems to be gradually changing too:   2,500 humanities 
students is significant for Severodvinsk with its population of 250,000 
residents.   It changes the social environment...." 

There is a no less striking example in neighboring Arkhangelsk Oblast.   
Correspondent Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Professor Feliks 
Yudakhin moved here from Kyrgyzstan in 1993 and now heads the Institute 
of the Ecological Problems of the North. 

"It was only here that I developed myself and very much regret that I did 
not come here sooner, even if only by three years," the scholar admits. 

As director of Kyrgyzstan's Institute of Seismology, after the collapse 
of the USSR, he watched bitterly as everything that had been created over 
years was destroyed.   Many projects ceased to be funded and seismic 
stations began to be shut down.   There were no prospects of working as a 
scholar in Kyrgyzstan and he accepted an invitation to go to Arkhangelsk. 
  Another five of his colleagues followed Doctor of Geological and 
Mineral Sciences Yudakhin, including two doctors and one candidate of 
sciences, who established in the institute a strong land sciences faculty 
that is in the future to become an institute of geology and geophysics. 

"We have begun research that had not been conducted here before," 
Professor Yudakhin says.   "In particular, we are rolling out a network 
of seismic stations in the north, which will allow the monitoring of 
geodynamic processes, which is very important for various facilities, 
including ones for oil and gas pipelines, the Plesetsk space station, and 
nuclear power plants.   In addition to that, we are studying climate 
change and the levels of radioactivity of all environments in Arkhangelsk 
Oblast and are using information from space for environmental aims, which 
has not happened before either." 

Feliks Yudakhin was among those who initiated the founding of the Russian 
Academy of Sciences Urals Branch in Arkhangelsk, Lomonosov's homeland, 
and was elected its first chair.   Historical justice was thus restored 
-- academic centers had previously been founded in Murmansk Oblast, 
Karelia, and the Komi Republic and were developing successfully but there 
was no such center in Arkhangelsk Oblast. 

Feliks Yudakhin recently visited Kyrgyzstan and unfortunately saw a 
sorrowful picture -- the republic's budget does not contain any money for 
scientific developments and scholars' wages are 2-3 times less than in 
poor Russia.   The professor might invite another few people to work in 
Arkhangelsk but the city cannot yet provide them with housing. 

The experience of colleagues from Omsk, where they are effectively 
solving housing problems for invited scholars, could come in useful here. 
  Almost 20 experts, who Rector Konstantin Churkin says have become key 
figures in the staff, have come to Omsk State Pedagogical University in 
recent years.   They are all either provided with apartments or live in 
apartment-style dormitories.   Thanks to three doctors and two candidates 
of sciences in the university, they have managed to open a board on the 
methodology of figurative art and their own dissertation board.   The 
experimental biologists who have arrived have contributed a now much 
needed practical orientation to the process of the university's biology 
teaching. 

"New people always have a positive influence on the staff and migrants 
are particularly good," the rector believes, "Because since time 
immemorial it is the boldest and most confident people who have moved to 
new lands.   They have come with serious education and experience...." 

According to Konstantin Churkin, many higher education establishments in 
the region -- in Biysk, Barnaul, and Novosibirsk -- have fundamentally 
changed their cadre situation thanks to migrants.   To this list let us 
also add Belgorod and Velikiy Novgorod -- "migrants" have given a new 
impetus to developments there too, particularly to linguistic science. 

Despite the fact that the scholars and experts who used to work in many 
republics of the former USSR have changed their place of residence and 
made their way to Russia in recent years, there is still unused 
scientific potential there.   The question is whether the current Russian 
state is interested in that potential and whether it will be able to make 
effective use of it for the good of the fatherland. 

Of course, migrant scholars are a drop in the ocean in the current almost 
uncontrolled influx of guest workers and illegal immigrants who bring by 
no means constructive ideas.   Nevertheless, it is they who over time can 
patch up the intellectual holes and fill the spiritual lacunae that are 
yawning in the Russian expanse that has been subdued by cataclysms. 

Especially in the Russian provinces, which in essence were and, let us 
hope, will remain the guarantee of the safe conduct of the human soul. 

********

#19
Central Asia: Libraries In A Difficult Bind Following Soviet Collapse
By Charles Carlson

One of the least publicized casualties of the demise of the Soviet Union has 
been the decline of the state-owned libraries of the former Soviet republics. 
RFE/RL reports how four Central Asian states are struggling to preserve, and 
augment, their bibliographical heritage. 

Prague, 21 May 2003 (RFE/RL) -- Some of the world's earliest and most 
splendid libraries arose between the 2nd century B.C. and the 16th century
along the 
fabled Silk Road, which linked China with Europe via Central Asia.

But many of the libraries that the now independent states of Central Asia 
inherited after the collapse of the Soviet Union have -- over the past 12
years 
-- fallen victim to neglect, theft, and inadequate funding.

In a recent interview with RFE/RL in Tashkent, Uzbek political scientist 
Rustam Djumayev says there has been a decline in the professional
qualifications 
of library staff over the past decade, especially in the provinces. He said 
this may be one of the reasons why rare books are being stolen and offered
for 
sale.

In some cases, desperate thieves are motivated by a desire to raise money to 
feed their families. But other thefts are part of a more sophisticated 
criminal operation to steal rare books and offer them for sale to wealthy
collectors.

Itar-Tass reported earlier this month that Kyrgyz and Russian intelligence 
officials cooperated to arrest a criminal group that had stolen some 40 rare 
volumes from libraries in Kyrgyzstan and taken them to Moscow for resale.
Some of 
the volumes bore the autograph of Russian Czar Nicholas II and were worth an 
estimated $1,000 each.

Chinara Asenova, who heads the information service for the Kyrgyz National 
Security Service, says the books in question were published between 1802 and 
1910 and bore stamps marking them as state property.

In an interview with RFE/RL, a member of the staff at the Kyrgyz National 
Library in Bishkek -- who wished to remain anonymous -- denied any books
had been 
stolen. She acknowledged, however, that security needs to be tightened to 
prevent future thefts, and admitted the National Library does not have the
funds 
to do so.

"These books were not stolen from our library. There is not a signature 
[special code] of our library in the [stolen] books. Maybe it happened in
the 1930s 
or '40s. We don't have a stolen [book] now. This is a time of book shortages. 
Our aim is to strengthen the guards, but we don't have enough money for 
that," she said.

Sultan Rayev, Kyrgyzstan's deputy minister of education and culture, says his 
ministry plans to take action to prevent further thefts.

"There are some facts about lost rare books [in the country]. This is a huge 
loss for our spiritual culture. That is why we, in the Ministry of Culture, 
are trying to protect and restore rare books. This won't happen again in the 
future. We are strictly controlling the state libraries [on the protection of 
rare books]," Rayev says.

Baktygul Myrayeva, director of the Osh regional library in southern 
Kyrgyzstan, blames thefts on lax lending policies, inadequate security, and
a failure 
to catalog library holdings to identify the most valuable books.

"I think that strict control of the rare books should be maintained. This has 
been a mistake by our librarians because these books have to be under special 
control. They should not be given out. If you give them out, the books would 
be given from one hand to another and, eventually, they would be lost. The 
rare books have to be kept in a special room with special conditions,"
Myrayeva 
says.

Some stolen volumes are offered for sale abroad. A representative of 
Harrassowitz Verlag, a respected German firm that deals in books on Turkic
peoples, 
confirmed to RFE/RL that the company has received inquiries from rare 
booksellers in the former Soviet Union. The spokesman says such offers are
automatically 
refused.

Rare books are not only lost through theft. Many libraries in Central Asia 
occupy buildings that are dilapidated and vulnerable to fire and flooding.
The 
basement of the library of Tajikistan's Medical University was inundated
during 
the recent floods in Dushanbe. Local authorities were unable to provide pumps 
to remove the water, so students and library staff salvaged books one by one.

Librarian Salomat Khayrulleoyeva told RFE/RL it is still too early to say how 
many books were lost. She said the library is hoping an international sponsor 
will help replace any damaged volumes.

The disappearance of old books is not the only problem being faced by Central 
Asian libraries. Many smaller libraries are prevented by financial 
constraints from acquiring new books.

Djumayev told RFE/RL that since its independence, Uzbekistan has acquired 
many volumes on subjects that during the Soviet era had been considered
taboo, 
such as political science, management, and sociology. But most new
acquisitions 
are confined to the Alisher Navoi State Library, the largest library in 
Tashkent.

The Navoi library houses almost 5 million volumes, including a collection of 
manuscripts and rare books, some of them dating to before the October 1917 
Revolution. A new building is currently under construction.

Kazakhstan has adopted its own approach to libraries. Smaller libraries are 
being closed and their holdings transferred to larger libraries in the
biggest 
city in each of the country's 14 oblasts. The surviving libraries are 
reportedly benefitting from an increase in funding, possibly from the
country's oil 
revenues.

Tursyn Zhurtbay, director of the Otyrar Research Library at the Eurasian 
University in Astana, says Prime Minister Imangali Tasmagambetov has pledged 
support for building a new library in the capital, modeled on the ancient
library 
in Alexandria, Egypt.

"The main idea of the creation of such a library was to collect all the 
ancient materials concerning the history of Kazakhs from all over the world
in one 
place. I mean books, research papers, and other materials. Our task was to 
scientifically sort out all the gathered materials, to research them. The
second 
task was to gather also all the materials available within our country," 
Zhurtbay says.

Zhurtbay notes that among the 5,000 rare books and manuscripts housed in his 
library are valuable copies of documents written in the ancient Uighur script 
in the 9th century. He says the originals had been preserved in Afghanistan 
but were reportedly destroyed during fighting.

Kazakhstan's National Library was founded in 1936 and contains some 5.5 
million volumes, including some rare books and manuscripts dating to the 12th 
century, as well as early recordings of Kazakh national music. The library
hopes 
the government will recognize the need to preserve historic documentation as 
part of state policy.

In contrast to the National Library, the library at the Presidential Cultural 
Center in Astana has identified the most valuable among its holding of some 
700,000 volumes. Access to them is strictly limited. 

"This library is the biggest part of the Presidential Cultural Center. We 
have inherited all the books of the old Saken Seyfullin Library in Astana.
Our 
library is based upon that old library. We have more than 700,000 books and 
documents. Among them there are rare and ancient books, as well. Those
books are 
not available for all the readers. Only in special cases do we give them to 
some researchers, and it is prohibited to Xerox them," says Asia
Suleymenova, the 
library's director.

But it was an oblast library -- the A.S. Pushkin Library in East Kazakhstan 
Oblast -- that was the first in the country to create electronic databases
and 
an electronic catalog.

Amateur historians in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan who live outside 
the countries' capitals or other large cities may find it increasingly 
difficult to gain access to unique materials.

But scholars wishing to study Islam as part of their cultural heritage are in 
an even worse situation, because the only books in national libraries devoted 
to that subject are those that have been acquired in the past 12 years.

*******

#20
Pipelines may up Russia oil exports 40 pct-govt source

MOSCOW, May 21 (Reuters) - Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, 
could boost exports by as much as 40 percent to 5.6 million barrels per day 
(bpd) by the end of this decade if it builds new pipelines, a government
official 
said on Wednesday. 

The official, who asked not to be named, said the figure was part of Russia's 
draft energy strategy, which the government is due to approve on Thursday. 

Different Russian ministries have all been predicting healthy growth for the 
country's oil industry, which has been booming for the last five years, but 
the Energy Ministry's strategy gives one of the most optimistic long-term 
forecasts yet. 

However, experts have said the real impact of the strategy's approval was 
limited because Russia's oil sector was almost fully privatised. 

They say oil majors would increase output and exports only if the state 
agreed to build new pipelines to make shipments profitable. 

Russia currently produces 8.2 million bpd and exports around 4.0 million bpd 
mainly to European markets via the state pipeline monopoly Transneft, by rail 
and by river. 

Oil majors have urged the state to allow them to construct new pipelines to 
China, the Pacific coast and the Arctic port of Murmansk to reduce costs by 
cutting rail and river shipments, which are more expensive than pipeline 
operations. 

The official said the draft strategy foresees oil exports at 5.0-5.6 million 
bpd by 2010 and, depending on international oil prices, rising to 5.4-6.2 
million bpd by 2020. 

Oil output growth is expected to be less aggressive at 9.0-9.8 million bpd by 
2010 and 9.0-10.4 million bpd by 2020, which would put Russia at par with the 
current production capacity of Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil nation. 

Gas exports to Europe and the former Soviet states should also grow to 
217-230 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2010 from 172 bcm in 2002, of which
130 bcm 
went to Europe. 

By 2020, Russia, which currently supplies Europe with one quarter of its gas 
needs, could boost exports to 234-245 bcm, the official said. 

*******

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