Johnson's Russia List #7141 19 April 2003 davidjohnson@erols.com A CDI Project www.cdi.org [Contents: DJ: JRL returns to the normal schedule. 1. AFP: Russia liberal lawmaker slaying marks ominous debut to Duma vote. 2. The Independent (UK) obituary: Fred Weir, Sergei Yushenkov: Defender of Russian Democracy. 3. Bettina Renz: Interview with Sergei Yushenkov. 4. Reuters: Russian PM backs pope visit to Russia. 5. The Globe and Mail (Canada): Lee Hamilton, Now's the time to restore U.S.-Russian relations. 6. Rosbalt: Over 30 Million Russians Live below Breadline. 7. Boston Globe editorial: A blind eye on Chechnya. 8. AFP: "Cuckoo" takes wing at Russian movie Academy Awards. 9. The Guardian (UK): Andrew Hurst, Russian oil deal in the pipeline. 10. Luba Schwartzman: TV1 Review. 11. Reuters: Russia's industrial wasteland chokes on fumes. 12. Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Igor Bunin, Alexei Zudin, Boris Makarenko, Alexei Makarkin, THE ELECTION OF 2003: A NEW INTRIGUE. New trends may radically change the correlation of political forces. 13. Interfax: Russian Duma wants UN play central role in postwar Iraq. 14. Polyarnaya Zvezda: The World is Searching for a New Order: Will the US Define a New Place for Russia? An Interview with Nikolai Zlobin. 15. Rosbalt: Katherine Ters, Image Problem Impedes Tourism Development in St. Petersburg.] ******* #1 Russia liberal lawmaker slaying marks ominous debut to Duma vote April 19, 2003 AFP Russians warned that prominent liberal lawmaker Sergei Yushenkov's murder marked an ominous debut to the country's looming election campaign and linked it closely to his ties to exiled opposition tycoon Boris Berezovsky. The State Duma lower house of parliament marked a minute of silence at the start of a session, with members visibly shaken by the ninth murder of a deputy in the past nine years. "We're going on as if nothing has happened. A deputy has been killed, not for the first time. Let (President Vladimir) Putin tell us who is running this country: the mafia, the bandits or the president," Communist deputy Ivan Nikitchuk said. The head of the Moscow police criminal investigation department said they were still searching for a motive in the attack and suggested it may be linked either to "Yushenkov's professional activities or his private life". Thursday's murder -- which follows a long line of assassinations of the Russian political elite who are staked out at their home doorsteps by professional hitmen -- left the country dumbfounded. Many lawmakers are believed to run shadowy businesses on the side but few believed Yushenkov, 52, often seen chain-smoking with disheveled hair and sporting a patched-up jacket, was embroiled in mafia-linked crime. But his Liberal Russia party -- officially registered for December's Duma polls just hours before his assassination -- has had close ties to Putin's political nemesis Berezovsky. The tycoon, now living in London to escape prosecution from Russian authorities, financed Liberal Russia before his expulsion from the party because he contacted the Communists in a bid to fund a two-pronged offensive against Putin's rule. Yushenkov was raised to the status of national hero minutes after his death. Television ran features highlighting his early 1990s involvement in the fight against Soviet Communism and efforts to prevent the two Chechen wars. A retired colonel and lawmaker since 1991, he was also hailed as a champion of the Russian soldier who sought to introduce desperately needed army reforms. He further took a leading role in a Duma committee looking into Russian security services' role in the 1999 apartment block bombings that Putin blamed on the Chechens -- and then used to launch a war which boosted his popularity and guaranteed his election as president in March 2000. The Kommersant business daily ran a quick poll of top Russian businessmen and politicians, with most agreeing that Yushenkov's murder was linked to politics rather than business. "I think that he could have been killed for his political stance," said Alfa Bank chief Pyotr Aven. Meanwhile leading liberal lawmaker Sergei Kovalyov said in an impassioned open letter to Putin that Yushenko's assassination could only have been ordered by people close to -- or who were benefiting from -- the current government. "The people who ordered Yushenkov's death... are people who are supporting the current vector of political development in Russia, secret or open co-authors of this course -- in other words, your supporters, Mister president," Kovalyov wrote. The murder serves as an uncomfortable reminder of seething tensions within the Russian political elite that appeared forgotten in the relative calm introduced by the dominant Putin administration. The Duma's pro-Putin forces -- led by the United Russia bloc that leads the current Duma -- headed opinion polls until recent weeks when a shakeup in the party's leadership seemed to lower its credibility in the public eye. Russian politics is also overshadowed by shifting allegiances. Many legislators jump ship and join more powerful parties once elected to the Duma. Western businesses here said the murder served as a reminder that Putin's best efforts to run a "dictatorship of law" were not yet bearing fruit. "Yushenkov's murder will remain a blot to Russia's image -- and a reminder of the poisons that run deep," said Christopher Granville of the United Financial Group in a research note. A burial has been set for Sunday, which leading liberal lawmakers are expected to attend. ******* #2 The Independent (UK) April 19, 2003 Obituary Sergei Yushenkov: Defender of Russian Democracy By Fred Weir A long-time democratic activist and thorn in the Kremlin's side, Sergei Yushenkov was the 10th Russian Duma deputy to be murdered since 1994, and the second leader of the Liberal Russia party to die in a hail of gunfire in less than a year. He had just won the right for his liberal opposition party to take part in Russia's upcoming parliamentary elections when he was assassinated on Thursday night. A former lecturer of Marxism-Leninism at a Soviet military academy, Yushenkov became politically active after Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in the Soviet Union and launched his campaigns to "restructure" and "democratise" Soviet society. He was elected to the first Russian parliament in 1990, and aligned himself with Boris Yeltsin and the hope of making a radical leap from Soviet Communism to market-driven democracy. When a group of orthodox Communist Party and military leaders attempted a coup in August 1991 and surrounded the Russian parliament with tanks, Yushenkov was prominent among the thousands of Muscovites who mounted barricades and forced the coup-makers to give up. A member of every Russian parliament since 1990, Yushenkov became deeply disillusioned with the corruption, ineptness and authoritarian reflexes of the post- Soviet Kremlin regimes headed by Yeltsin and, from January 2000, by Vladimir Putin. "What was Yeltsin, what were all of us fighting for in August 1991? Was it only for the winners and losers to change places?" Yushenkov told journalists on the coup's 10th anniversary in 2001. "This is exactly what has happened. The losers feel like winners. And this is very dangerous." He also parted ways with many of his fellow liberals, some of whom he accused of "social democratic" tendencies and others of selling out their principles in exchange for Kremlin favours. Over the past decade, Yushenkov was a ferocious critic of the Kremlin's two wars against the small, breakaway republic of Chechnya, which have killed upwards of 100,000 civilians and reduced the mainly Muslim region to ruin. When a series of devastating apartment bombs killed almost 300 Russians in the autumn of 1999, the Kremlin blamed it on Chechen terrorists, and used the tragedy to rally support for electing Putin. But Yushenkov and a few supporters attempted - and failed - to pass a Duma resolution demanding a full investigation into evidence that the FSB security service might have played a role in the explosions. His disaffection with other Russian democratic movements led him to play a key role in creating the Liberal Russia party last year. The party espouses the radical freemarket doctrines of Friedrich Hayek, and aims to create a state based "solely on the rule of law". But it was beset with difficulties. Last August, Yushenkov's co-chairman, Vladimir Golovyov, was gunned down while walking his dog in a peaceful Moscow suburb. Like all past killings of Duma deputies, Golovlyov's murder has never been solved. Then Yushenkov broke with the party's chief financial backer, the exiled tycoon Boris Berezovsky, who was arrested on a Kremlin-issued warrant in London last month. Liberal Russia expelled Berezovsky from its ranks, but Russia's Central Electoral Commission continued - until Thursday - to deny the party the vital registration needed to participate in the parliamentary elections in December. Yushenkov's last public utterance was "Registration has been completed," as he held aloft the crucial papers entitling Liberal Russia a place on the ballot. He was murdered outside his Moscow apartment building shortly afterwards. Members of Liberal Russia say they have no doubt the killing was political. The party's surviving co-chairman, Viktor Pokhmelkin, said that Yushenkov was shot to "bring the liberal opposition in Russia to its knees". In a message of condolence, Vladimir Putin described Yushenkov as "an outstanding politician of our time. . . who considered the defence of democratic freedoms and ideals to be his duty." Sergei Yushenkov, politician: born 1950; deputy, Duma 1990-2003; married (one son, one daughter); died Moscow 17 April 2003. ********* #3 Date: Fri, 18 Apr 2003 From: Bettina RenzSubject: Yushenkov Dear David I was shocked to hear about the murder of Sergei Yushenkov on 17 April. Unlike it was the case for many previous contract killings of political and economic figures in Russia, financial dealings and corrupt activities can be exlcuded with a high degree of certainty as the reason for Yushenkov's murder. Viktor Pokhmelkin, Boris Nemtsov and other politicians commenting on this appaling crime pointed out that Yushenkov has been far removed from the financial sphere and limited his activities to legislation and party building throughout his career. I interviewed Yushenkov last October about several legislative acts for a research project. This was at a time when Libral Russia had just been refused registration and Boris Berezovskii was in the process of discrediting the party and its leaders in the Russian media. Yushenkov appeared resigned and disappointed throughout the interview, but insisted on telling me about the problems encountered by his political party in great detail. After the interview, I thought that Yushenkov's version of events, which is revealing in many ways, should be made public. Unfortunately, I never got around to it. So I now send you an excerpt of the interview as an attachment, because I thought it might be interesting for the readers of Johnson's Russia List. All the best, Bettina Renz Research Fellow Bishop Grosseteste College Lincoln LN1 3DY United Kingdom Phone: (+44) 01522 527347 Email: bettyrenz@yahoo.co.uk; b.renz@bgc.ac.uk ------- Interview with Sergei Nikolaevich Iushenkov Moscow, State Duma, 29 October 2002 Question: I have read your comments recently that you accused the authorities of misusing the law on political parties to refuse your party registration. Can you tell me more about this? Answer: First of all, the law on political parties in itself contradicts the norms and articles of our Constitution and also the demands of the European Convention on the protection of the rights and freedoms of citizens. This convention defines very clearly the criteria for restricting the freedom of citizens to unite in political organisations or associations. And among these restrictions is not a single one that we were accused of. The only accusations against us only referred to some details in our regulations (uztav). From our point of view, their demands were excessive. This is the first point. Secondly, we consciously - being aware that we are in opposition - used the first part of the regulations of Edinaia Rossiia as a template, despite the fact that we noticed that there were some formal errors. We supposed that if they registered Edinaia Rossiia it would be very difficult to refuse Liberal Russia registration on the same basis. The Justice Ministry has no doubt… (phone rings). But we were seriously mistaken, because the bureaucrats had a strong desire to please the Kremlin and they thought that acting this way they would please it. Actually, the Kremlin showed this desire through one of the vice-chairmen of the presidential administration. We were accused that our regulations are not in accordance with the law. There were even funny demands. I only have to give you one - no, even two - examples. They were very revealing examples and it is possible to briefly sum them up. Following the declared aims of Edinaia Rossiia as presented in their regulations, we also put it as one of our aims to nominate a candidate for the presidential elections. This is a normal aim - every party has this aim. And they said that we cannot have such an aim, because this is the aim of all voters. It is a crazy thing. But they registered this aim as a violation of the law on political parties. We said - but how come Edinaia Rossiia is allowed to have such an aim? They did not say anything, and in the court, the Ministry of Justice could not explain why the same regulations are accepted for Edinaia Rossiia. but what is wrong if we write the same regulations for ourselves. The court was not interested in such facts. They supported the Justice Ministry. But in the corridors we heard the following being said: 'It is obvious who is going to be a candidate of Edinaia Rossiia. But in your case, whom are you going to nominate?' They were joking, but there was a grain of truth in it. We also wrote that every citizen over 18 years can be a member of Liberal Russia - all people recognising the regulations of the party, and who are not prevented from being a member of any party according to the Russian law. And they said: Why did you not write in your regulations that foreigners cannot become a member of your party? Or why did you not write that a person who lost the right to become a party member by a court decision, can also not become a member? We said: But we already wrote that we do not accept members who are prevented to join a party according to the law. But they said: No, you should give more details. You should just specify this point. And we asked the court: Why don't you want us to write down as well, then, that military personnel cannot become members of our party, because they are not allowed to according to the law on the status of military personnel? Or judges, who also are not allowed to become members of a party according to the law on judges? I did not receive an answer to this. And I said: the regulations that we have written are more precise, because all the cases are considered, but what you advice us is to define our regulations more narrowly. They did not answer this question, either. Even when we ended up getting emotional and cried out 'why don't you understand?' they did not understand. We had two explanations why they did not register us. Of course, not officially. The first is connected to the fact that we are a very loud opposition. The second is that Berezovskii was in our party. Of course these points are the most significant for our party to be or not to be registered. We assembled and made a decision: one choice is to insist on our rights and we could go to the Strasbourg court and wait for its decision. But the decision will be no earlier than 2005 and we will miss the elections. But we would get justice. At least concerning two articles of the law: on restrictions - because we are not subject to any of them. And on discrimination. This is obvious, because many parties had the same mistakes, but were registered. This is obvious discrimination. Even if their demands are correct. So we took the decision to change our regulations. Berezovskii was against this. He thinks that we should not comply with those in power. That we should - in the opposite - appeal to even higher levels of justice. And he suggested that we should choose him as the only chairman of our party. But we said no, we don't want that. I have to say that when we were making agreements with him in the beginning, we had a clear understanding that he will only give us financial support. But then he started to... he was with us until our aims and tasks no longer coincided with his. Then he started making demands on us. It all worked out in the beginning. Really, he did not set any conditions. But then he started speaking about the difficulties for him to accumulate resources if he is not the chairman of the party. He said that if he was a co-chairman of the party it would be easier for him to look for resources. Because he did not spend his own money - he had to look for it. So we discussed and decided that he could be one of five co-chairmen. We could sacrifice this position to him. Moreover, his rhetoric and everything else coincided with our programmes. I should also note that when we started building our movement, Liberal Russia, Berezovskii and we were opponents. Berezovskii supported Putin and we were against Putin. Berezovskii inspired the unity between the Communists and Edinstvo. We were against this. We were in confrontation on the most basic political issues. But then Berezovskii started to criticise those in power more and more. And his criticism coincided with our criticism. He even left the parliament as a sign of protest against the fact that the Duma was being turned into an instrument of the presidential administration. And he just repeated our words at that time. It seemed to us that every person has a right to make a mistake, and should get the opportunity to correct his mistakes. And honestly speaking, we thought that this was the case. But then he wrote his so-called 'Russian Manifesto'. And in his first version, this manifesto was 'russkii' (not rossiskii). And we rejected this manifesto, because we could see that it was some combination of certain liberal ideas with a part of national-patriotic ideas. With pronounced left-wing preferences. I told him that this is not for our party. None of us accepted this manifesto. And now he says that our programme is actually based on his manifesto. But it is enough to have a look at the programme of Liberal Russia and the manifesto of Berezovskii to see that they are not comparable at all. After that, he never stopped his attempts to combine liberal ideas with some sort of national patriotic ideas. In general, there is nothing bad about it. Why can a liberal not be a patriot? Actually, liberals are the real patriots. Because liberals advocate the rights and freedoms of the individual and put this as the highest priority. To ensure these rights and freedoms is a real patriotic position. Practical steps [taken by Berezovskii] directed at establishing this consortium between patriots and liberals in our Russian understanding show that they were attempts at uniting Liberal Russia with various national-patriotic organisations, including the Communists and even the Limonovtsy and we could not accept this absolutely. Unfortunately this situation developed very quickly and it was right before our meeting at which we were going to change our regulations. Right before that meeting Berezovskii set an ultimatum. Either you elect me as your only chairman, or I will leave the party in order to give the party an opportunity to be registered. According to Berezovskii, in any way, the world should see that everything depends on him. Even our registration or non-registration. We told him that we do not like this and we do not want to be hostages of one figure. And we had never agreed on something like this. We expected that at the meeting he would leave the party. But instead, he made a speech that it was necessary to combine liberalism with patriotism. taking into account the specific situation in Russia I was strongly against this idea, and so were other people at this meeting. And there was an un-pronounced but a very strong polemic, which led some journalists, who attended the meeting and paid attention to what was going, to conclude that liberal Russia now is without Berezovskii. But things were coming to this. We did not want our registration to be dependent to Berezovskii, and we were waiting for registration. And Minister Chaika said that if we change the regulation, there are not going to be any problems with the registration of Liberal Russia. But we were not in a rush to get rid of Berezovskii. We understood that we are following different lines, but formally we wanted to break with him only after the registration. But then Zavtra published an article, where Berezovskii gave an interview to Prokhanov saying that there are no problems. But generally this was an overt challenge to us - people started to say that Liberal Russia started to lose its mind. There were also other publications in other papers, where they said that Liberal Russia has no principles at all. The next week, Zavtra published an article - its first publication was an editorial - with the whole interview. After the first publication we were able to give some explanations to people, but after the second one there was no chance to give an explanation. I called Berezovskii and said that we are going to criticise him sharply on behalf of all the co-chairmen. And that at the next political council we were going to discuss the issue of his membership in the party. He said, 'yes, discuss, please'. But he did not believe to the last moment that the political council can exclude him from the party. He has no idea about our regulations - he never read them. He thought that only a meeting can exclude him. Yes, the meeting can exclude him as well, but so can the political council. But we warned him. We gave him the possibility to decide the question to leave the party voluntarily. And he did not want to do that. So we had to exclude him. Yes, there were debates about this. After his exclusion he said… I suggested to him through the media - we suggested to him to have a life video link for him to the Duma so he could participate, but he refused. Generally he is afraid of direct confrontation. He is afraid, because he understands that he will be caught out on his tricks and lies. And therefore he refused to have a video conference with me. But he was recorded with Pokhmelkin and others and the film was cut on the TV by half. I don't know how they did it. Berezovskii has several journalists who write for him and the journalists are very strong and experienced. He pays them. And they give their own interpretation to provide him with a certain image. We understand all this. But he said in a private conversation that he has enough resources to destroy Liberal Russia. And this is exactly what he is doing now. He uses any means and buys leaders of our regional branches, and he is covering his actions with the idea that he is restoring justice. He can buy some of them now, of course, because there are some people in Liberal Russia who joined after Berezovskii with the hope of receiving some sort of benefits from this. From 18000 members these are about 1500 or 2000. Now he is making very funny attempts to call for a meeting that is not legitimate, but he is using his money and links with the mass media to pretend that this is Liberal Russia. Of course we are going to have a very serious struggle in order to maintain the party. However, we are grateful to Berezovskii that he took these people away from our party, for whom the ideas of liberalism are just an empty sound. We are grateful to him for this. ******** #4 Russian PM backs pope visit to Russia By Estelle Shirbon ROME, April 18 (Reuters) - Russia's prime minister on Friday backed Pope John Paul's efforts to become the first pontiff to visit Russia and said his government was doing all it could to heal a rift between the Vatican and the Russian Orthodox Church. "I think the efforts that have been made so far and those being made now to eliminate differences between the two Churches must be crowned with success," Mikhail Kasyanov told reporters. "The Russian government is trying in every possible way to help eliminate the concerns that still exist on the path towards a rapprochement between the two Churches," Kasyanov said at a joint news conference with Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. Berlusconi said he had requested a meeting with the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Alexiy II, and had discussed possible dates for such a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Vatican is attempting to include a stop by the pope in the Russian city of Kazan, 800 km (500 miles) east of Moscow, when he is on the way to Mongolia in August, Vatican sources said earlier this week. A stop by the pope in Russia, however brief, would be historic, although he has already visited other countries that made up the former Soviet Union. The pope has said he wants to visit Moscow but would not want to do so without the blessing of the Russian Orthodox Church. It was not clear if the pope would want to visit Kazan unless the Orthodox Church agreed. Relations between the Vatican and the Russian Orthodox Church have been severely strained since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. The Russian Orthodox Church has criticised the Vatican for allegedly using new found freedoms in Russia since the end of communism to poach away believers. The purpose of a stop by the pope in Kazan, some 800 km (500 miles) east of Moscow, would be to return the icon of Our Lady of Kazan, one of the most venerated icons of the Virgin Mary in the Russian Orthodox Church. The icon, which dates at least to the 16th century, was stolen in 1904 and was kept in several European cities before winding up at the Vatican. The pope, who wants to mend ties with the Russian Orthodox Church, has said several times that he would like to return the icon to the Russian people. ******* #5 The Globe and Mail (Canada) April 15, 2003 Now's the time to restore U.S.-Russian relations By LEE HAMILTON Lee H. Hamilton, former chairman of the U.S. House committee on international relations, is director of the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. Relations between the United States and Russia have chilled in recent months. Warm feelings based upon Russia's co-operation in the war on terror and the closeness of presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin have been replaced by disagreement over the war in Iraq. But key threats, such as global economic stagnation, terrorism and weapons proliferation, make it clear that U.S. and Russian interests are best served by a speedy return to visible co-operation. Russia adamantly opposed using force in Iraq, and provided key support for France's pledge to veto a second Security Council resolution condemning Iraq. Even with the war's apparent success, Russia has maintained the view that the war destabilizes international relations. The rift over Iraq followed other recent divisions. Russia's sale of nuclear technology to Iran has drawn repeated criticism from the United States. Russia has also called for direct U.S.-North Korean talks, rather than the multilateral framework for negotiation favoured by President Bush. Meanwhile, Russia's own brutal war in Chechnya continues, despite calls for restraint from the United States and other Western governments. President Putin has taken important steps to put Russia on a westward course, but recent detours reflect a focus on Russia's national interests, and domestic pressures intensified by upcoming Russian parliamentary elections. The U.S. withdrawal from the ABM treaty, and NATO enlargement into Eastern Europe and the Baltic, has upset Russians, as has our failure to forgive Russian debt or to support Russian accession into the World Trade Organization. Russians particularly resent the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a holdover from the Cold War, that ties Russia's trade status to its freedom of emigration. The Russian people are questioning what they are getting out of the Bush-Putin relationship, and are uncomfortable in a post-Cold War world in which Russia's interests are subordinate to U.S. hegemony. Neither the United States nor Russia should be surprised that the other is pursuing a policy based on national interests. The United States sees weapons of mass destruction in the hands of regimes like Saddam Hussein's as a threat to its security, and is pursuing a muscular strategy of counterproliferation. Russia is interested in economic development, and is willing to put non-proliferation second to the benefits of doing business with countries such as Iran. But let's be practical. The United States and Russia each have an interest in Russia's economic integration into the West. The United States should forgive some Soviet-era Russian debt, repeal the outdated Jackson-Vanik amendment, and support Russian accession into the WTO, in return for greater transparency and market reform within Russia. A growing Russian economy tied more to the West would strengthen the global economic recovery, while reducing Russia's interest in dealing with countries such as Iran. Developing Russia's vast energy reserves could also increase Russian revenues, while providing the United States with another major oil and gas supplier outside of the volatile Middle East. When it comes to security, the United States and Russia have overlapping concerns. Russia's acceptance of U.S. bases in Central Asia as well as intelligence sharing between the two countries has strengthened the fight against al-Qaeda. While we should speak out vigorously against Russian human-rights violations in Chechnya, the United States must continue to work closely with Russia in the war on terror and the stabilization of Central Asia. The United States should also continue to bring Russia closer to NATO, as the integration of Russia into Western security arrangements reduces the likelihood of a return to Russian expansionism and militarism. If we want Russia to be a partner, we must be willing to treat it as one. Most importantly, the United States and Russia must reduce the threat of weapons proliferation. The United States should increase programs to help Russia secure and dismantle its own weapons of mass destruction, as the former Soviet Union is a natural destination for terrorists attempting to steal or acquire dangerous materials. If Washington and Moscow work together to reduce and secure their arsenals while building strong global non-proliferation regimes, trust between our nations will grow, and the world will be a safer place. ******** #6 Rosbalt Over 30 Million Russians Live below Breadline MOSCOW, April 19. Over 30 million people in Russia have incomes below the breadline, according to Russian Deputy Minister for Labour and Social Development Galina Karelova. The minister was speaking at a round-table conference in Moscow called 'Social security: the fundamentals of social policy'. She said that the minimum income needed to survive in Russia is, on average, about USD 65 per month. Karelova stressed that the fight against poverty is currently one of Russia's most important social tasks, adding that 30 million people is a significant proportion of the population (currently around 143 million). 'These people are unable to eat normally, buy clothes, study or receive medical treatment,' said Karelova. ******** #7 Boston Globe April 19, 2003 Editorial A blind eye on Chechnya IN CHECHNYA, Russia's President Vladimir Putin has been getting away with murder. And ethnic cleansing. And kidnapping rackets run by Russian officers and criminal gangs. Under the cover of what Putin calls his contribution to the war against terrorism, the Kremlin has killed or made refugees of about half of Chechnya's 1996 population of 1 million people. The Bush administration's passivity in the face of this catastrophe has been shameful. There was hardly a murmur of complaint when the Kremlin staged a sham referendum in Chechnya on March 23, after which it clamed that Russia's local loyalists had received more votes than there are voters left in Chechnya. Voters were intimidated and bribed into voting the right way. Putin's aim in staging the referendum was to pretend that the balloting was a valid local election within the Russian Federation; that it confirmed Chechens loyal to the Kremlin as legitimate leaders of the republic; that it showed that Chechens did not really want the independence for which they have fought for 300 years; and that the Chechen government of Prime Minister Aslan Maskhadov, elected in January 1997 under the scrutiny of monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, should no longer receive international recognition. As Ilyas Akhmadov, foreign minister of the Chechen government elected in 1997, said during a visit to the Globe Thursday, Russia's imposition of last month's referendum ''was like making people in the Warsaw ghetto vote for the Third Reich.'' Neither the phoniness of the March referendum nor the genocidal crimes the Kremlin has committed in Chechnya are a secret. Yet this past Wednesday the UN High Commission for Human Rights in Geneva, stocked as it is with human rights violators, failed to pass a resolution sponsored by the European Union that would have deplored systematic human rights abuses in Chechnya and called upon Russia to take ''all necessary steps'' to conduct or permit thorough and rapid investigations of abuses such as kidnappings, torture, and extrajudicial executions. The Bush administration, appearing to play geopolitics with a flagrant Russian assault on human rights, refused to cosponsor the resolution. Fortunately, the administration did decide at the last minute to vote for the EU's draft. For President Bush to accept Putin's pretense that the Kremlin's ethnic cleansing of Chechnya is really a war against terrorism is to give a green light to crimes against humanity. As a director of the Russian human rights group Memorial, Eliza Moussaeva, said to the Globe this week, ''Russia wants to look like a democratic state, but what is going on there can be called fascism.'' It is time for Bush to take another look into Putin's soul and tell him that he cannot pass for a democratic leader if he does not permit political negotiations to end his dirty war in Chechnya. ******** #8 "Cuckoo" takes wing at Russian movie Academy Awards April 19, 2003 AFP A Russian film made in Finland with a Sami (Lapp) star, Alexander Rogozhkin's critically-acclaimed "Kukushka" (The Cuckoo), swept the honours at Russia's annual "Nika" Academy Awards ceremony late Friday. The film, in which each of the three main characters speaks a different language, won the "Nika" for best film, while Rogozhkin won the award for best director and Finland's Sami-speaking Anni-Christina Juuso was voted best actress. The event marks the crowning triumph for a low-budget movie that has been widely praised on the international festival circuit and has been bought up for US distribution, a rare tribute for a Russian film. Set during World War II, "Kukushka" tells the story of two rival soldiers, one Finnish and one Russian, and the native Sami woman who shelters them through the northern winter. The "Nika" for best actor was won by veteran Oleg Yankovsky for his role in "Lyubovnik" (The Lover), directed by Valery Todorovsky. Sergei Bodrov Jr., the young actor-director who died in an avalanche in the Caucasus mountains last September, won the "Nika" for best supporting actor in the film "Voina" (War) directed by Alexei Balabanov. The award was accepted by his father Sergei Bodrov, himself a distinguished film director. Latvian director Hertz Frank won a "Nika" for the best film from the Commonwealth of Independent States plus the Baltics (i.e. the former Soviet Union) for his film "Flashback". No fewer than three of the five films competing for the best film award -- Nikolai Lebedev's "Zvezda" (Star) was the third -- featured war, a fitting theme as the Russian movie Academy is currently a house, or rather two houses, divided. For the first time since the "Nikas" were created 15 years ago, the awards ceremony took place in Moscow's spanking new International House of Music, a sleek spaceship-style construction by the side of the Moskva river. The change of venue was forced by the fact that the awards' founder Yuly Gusman was dismissed last year as director of Dom Kino (House of Cinema) where the event had previously taken place by the head of the Filmmakers Union, Nikita Mikhalkov. The ambitious Mikhalkov, best known as the director of such films as "Burnt by the Sun" and "The Barber of Siberia", has set up a rival awards ceremony known as the Golden Eagle, staged in January with the clear intention of taking the wind out of the sails of the "Nikas". An early casualty of the fratricidal strife was one of Russia's better productions of 2002, Andrei Konchalovsky's "The Mad House" which won second prize at last year's Venice Film Festival but whose director happens to be Mikhalkov's brother. Despite its obvious qualities, "The Mad House" -- also a film about war -- won only a single "Nika" nomination, and that in a minor category. "Cuckoo" director Rogozhkin at least had no grounds for complaint, as his film's three "Nikas" now join the three "Golden Eagles" it won three months ago for best director, best screenplay and best actor. Faced with the challenge of its upstart rival, the "Nika" event set out bravely in its advantageous new home to give a fair imitation of the Hollywood Academy Award ceremony. Under a sun auditioning for summer, a crowd of 200 fans cheered and whistled up a storm as the actors, directors, producers and other movers and shakers of the movie industry walked the long red carpet into the House of Music. Even the writers got a cheer. ******* #9 The Guardian (UK) April 19, 2003 Russian oil deal in the pipeline Andrew Hurst in Moscow Russian oil companies Yukos and Sibneft may be on the verge of combining their operations to create one of the world's largest energy companies, investment banking sources said yesterday. One banker, who asked not to be named, said a deal giving Yukos chief executive Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his associates more than 50% of a merged company with a market value of $35bn (£22.3bn) could be announced as early as the beginning of next week. Sibneft's shareholders, led by Roman Abramovitch, the governor of Russia's remote eastern Chukotka region, would have a blocking stake in the enlarged firm and receive a cash payment of up to $1.4bn under the proposed deal. A combined company would be the world's fifth largest oil group, measured by crude oil production - making it substantially larger than Russia's present number one, Lukoil, and putting it on a par with France's TotalFinaElf and America's Chevron Texaco. Shares in Yukos, Russia's second largest oil company, and Sibneft, its fifth largest, have soared in recent days, fuelled by market rumours they are working on a link-up. "I think there is a 60-70% chance it's announced by Tuesday," said the investment banker. "There is no question something is going on. There is still a question whether it will happen." Officials at Yukos and Sibneft have declined to comment on reports that they might merge. The two companies tried unsuccessfully to negotiate a merger in 1998 and analysts said a deal could still founder at the last minute. A Moscow-based analyst, who asked not to be named, said senior managers at Sibneft had let it be known that they were preparing to make a significant announcement next week. Russian oil firms have been at the centre of takeover speculation since BP bought a 50% stake in TNK, Russia's third largest oil firm, for $6.75bn, the biggest transaction in Russia's corporate history. "We are hearing a lot of background noise of a substantial deal and the signs are that something will be announced soon," said Charles Ryan, the chief executive of Moscow finance house UFG. Yukos's chief is probably anxious to secure Sibneft before it becomes a target for takeover by an international oil player, analysts said. ******* #10 TV1 Review www.1tv.ru Compiled by Luba Schwartzman (luba_sch@hotmail.com) Research Analyst, Center for Defense Information, Moscow office HEADLINES, Thursday, April 17, 2003 - State Duma Deputy (Liberal Russia) Sergei Yushenkov was murdered by his Moscow home. Yushekov is the eighth State Duma deputy killed over the last nine years. Duma Speaker Gennady Seleznev declared that the murder was a political assassination and noted that it was carried out on the day the Justice Ministry officially registered Liberal Russia as a party. Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his condolences to Yushenkov's family, friends and colleagues. - President Putin met with Federation Council Chairman Sergei Mironov. Mironov spoke about his trip through Central Asia, his meetings with the presidents of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and with parliamentarians in Kyrghyzstan. - President Putin also met with Transneft Director Semyon Vainshtock to discuss the Baltic oil pipeline. - Light industry was at the top of the agenda of today's meeting of the Russian Cabinet. Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov declared that up to 40 percent of light industry in Russia is part of the shadow economy. Ministers also discussed the oil and gas complex of Russia's Northwestern region and amendments to customs tariffs. - An Association of National Organization may be established in Russia in the near future. The goal of such an organization would be the protection of ethnic diasporas in Russia. - In Volgograd, 26 schoolchildren were poisoned by a cloud chemicals that rose from hydrogen sulfide discarded at an oil- processing plant. - Georgia extradited to Russia one of the fighters from the illegal band formation of Ruslan Gelaev. 22-year-old Kabardino-Balkaria native, Amirkhan Ligidov, was delivered to Pyatigorsk by Russian and Georgian border guards. - Presidential Advisor Sergei Yastrzhembsky declared that some people in the West are deliberately exaggerating the human rights problems in Chechnya, in order to undermine the results of the recent referendum. - Deputy Prosecutor of the Southern Federal District Sergei Fridinsky gave official information on casualties in Chechnya. 730 people have been murdered over the past year. - Novgorod officials are asking residents to turn in unregistered weapons. - 50,000 young men are eligible for recruitment this season, but only about 5,000 of them are likely end up serving in the Russian Armed Forces. - Russian sailors from the Northern, Pacific, Baltic and Black Sea fleets are preparing for large-scale military exercises. - The Supreme Court of the Russian Federation upheld the sentence against Italian citizen Nadezhda Fratti, who illegally brought out several hundred orphans to families abroad. - A memorial service was held for scientist Vsevolod Avduevsky. ******** #11 FEATURE-Russia's industrial wasteland chokes on fumes By Clara Ferreira-Marques KARABASH, Russia, April 18 (Reuters) - Vast stretches of soot-coloured wasteland, mountains of black slag and a handful of ailing birch trees mark the landscape around the Urals town of Karabash, one of the most polluted places on the planet. Around the clock, the five chimneys of the century-old Karabash Copper Smelting Works spew out pitch-black toxic fumes laden with sulphurous waste. "Nothing grows in our vegetable patches -- everything dies or turns yellow," said Svetlana, a mother of two who has spent her life in the town. The soil in and around Karabash is full of toxic metals including lead, mercury and arsenic. "Our children have asthma, respiratory diseases, many now suffer from skin diseases too," Svetlana said. Karabash, a town of apocalyptic bleakness, is a painful reminder of an environmental policy that has balked at the huge cost of cleaning up many of the ailing behemoths left behind by the Soviet Union, including its metals sector. The Soviet authorities closed the plant in 1987 because of ecological concerns. The town was declared an "environmental disaster zone" and plans were made to resettle some families. But the cleaner air also threw some 3,500 people out of jobs, plunged the town into poverty and ripped out a vast company-funded network of social infrastructure. The plant was reopened in 1998 to satisfy a town desperate for jobs and local businessmen wanting the metal. "There were no legal documents. There should have been an ecological assessment, but there was nothing," said Maxim Shingarkin, an environmental campaigner and aide at the Russian parliament. "They just came and switched on the machines." CLEANING UP SOVIET MISTAKES Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev pledged to begin cleaning up the Soviet Union's gravest ecological mistakes. But the collapse of communism and the 1998 financial crash have relegated the environment -- and the hugely expensive overhaul of unwieldy Soviet-era heavy industry -- to the bottom of the policy agenda. Like many of its neighbours on the gritty Urals industrial belt, Karabash, some 1,300 km (810 miles) southeast of Moscow, has seen few of the benefits from foreign investment pouring into European Russia. Yevgeny Shram, a local deputy and activist, explained that the city was so starved of jobs it was obliged to agree to the plant's proposal to reopen without a major overhaul. "You must understand there was 24 percent unemployment, a very difficult situation," Shram said. "The plant was allowed to work for two years without an environmental inspection. That was five years ago. We are still waiting." Only metres (yards) from the smelter's chimneys, children play in a battered playground coated in grit-speckled snow. According to Russian law, their homes should long ago been moved further away from the smelter, within a "sanitary" radius of one km (0.6 miles). But 1,000 people still live within metres of the plant -- only 50 have been moved since it began work in 1998. None of those moves was paid for by the plant itself. "They won't move us and anyway, I'm not sure I want to," said Margarita Alexandrovna, a retired teacher, as she watched her grandchildren. "If they move you, you will only get a pre-fabricated house, and there you get sick straight away. At least these homes are made of brick," she said, with a gesture towards the grimy, two-storey blocks. CHOKING TO DEATH Even residents outside the area earmarked for immediate resettlement say they are choking on the plant's fumes. The town of low-rise blocks and wooden homes numbered 50,000 residents when mining and smelting works were at their peak. Now, many of the housing blocks are abandoned, and the population has slid to some 16,000 souls. "We live here because we have nowhere else to go," said Svetlana, a post office worker. "The only people who stay here are those who were born and bred here. The rest have long gone." "It is a dying town. Only the old and ageing are left." Svetlana, like other residents in the city, complains that the plant increases its work at night to camouflage the thick clouds of toxic smoke which suffocate the city. "They do their dirtiest work at night," she said. "Then in the morning, you can scarcely breathe. God knows how our children get to school." Yevgeny Orlov, responsible for ecology at the Karabash plant, dismisses accusations that it is working illegally. He cites a 262 million rouble ($8.37 million) resettlement plan -- still to be approved by the Moscow authorities -- and efforts to reduce toxic emissions. And he shrugs off concerns from residents who say they see little improvement in air quality. "I never complained," he said. "I have worked in factories across Russia and I know that ours is not the worse." On one point at least both residents and plant agree -- no one can afford to close the smelter altogether. "This is not about closing the plant. This is about getting the plant to fulfil its legal duties," said Shram. "We let them begin work and they polluted our town for two years, then another two years, then another two years and so on," he said. "They paint a picture according to which we helped each other. Now, it is not clear if anyone is helping anyone. They are a private company. If it is good for them to work on our territory it should be good for us too." ******* #12 Nezavisimaya Gazeta April 18, 2003 THE ELECTION OF 2003: A NEW INTRIGUE New trends may radically change the correlation of political forces Author: Igor Bunin, Alexei Zudin, Boris Makarenko, Alexei Makarkin [from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html] UNITED RUSSIA IS BEING REORGANIZED AS A RESULT OF THE KREMLIN'S COMPROMISE WITH REGIONAL ELITES - BUT IS NO LONGER THE LEADER IN THE RACE. THE COMMUNIST PARTY IS THE LEADER NOW, AND MAY ACTUALLY SECURE THIS POSITION. THE KREMLIN AND THE COMMUNISTS ARE FIGHTING FOR THE PROTEST VOTE. The campaign hasn't started yet, but Russian voters are already being dragged into the electoral process, and the formation of the institutional and political outlines of this campaign is entering its final phase. According to the National Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), Russian voters are more determined to participate in the election this time. The percentage of respondents who definitely don't intend to vote has remained unchanged for two months already (at 16%), but the number of those who do intend to vote has risen from 21% to 28%. Those who have not yet made up their minds number 25%, against 32% last time. Between late February and early April 2003, all major participants in the upcoming elections did their best to have the rules of the game officially changed. The focus of political bargaining has now shifted to informal agreements. United Russia's ratings fell in March 2003, and it is no longer the unquestioned favorite. According to VTsIOM polls, nationwide support for United Russia fell from 23% in February to 21% in March. The Communist Party, however, raised its rating considerably and even left United Russia behind. The latest United Russia congress voted for a new model of the party. It may be conditionally described as "mixed". Essentially, this is a compromise between two scenarios - a traditional ruling party (i.e. a party of regional and federal prominent names) and a party of the Kremlin (a new bureaucracy boasting of its closeness to the president and his inner circle). The new model restored some order in the upper echelons of United Russia but failed to solve two major problems - plurality of centers and a multitude of important figures in its ruling bodies. The functions of operational management are divided among three decision- making centers - Gryzlov, General Council Secretary Bogomolov, and Volkov. Rumored to be fairly close to V. Ivanov, Deputy Director of the Presidential Administration, Volkov may - and probably will - become the next chairman of the Central Executive Committee. The new ideological niche of United Russia forces it to openly criticize the government. This criticism is augmented by disassociation with what party functionaries call "old ruling parties" - the CPSU and the political leadership of Yeltsin's era. The policy is quite rational. United Russia is aiming to exceed the limits of the conformist vote which usually goes to the ruling party, and gather some protest votes as well, the people who voted for Unity back in 1999. These voters are estimated to number 10-12%. United Russia leaders are making a valiant attempt to ride the wave of protests and concentrate all criticism on the Cabinet, in order not to have public discontent focus on the president. At the same time, criticism of the government expressed by Cabinet ministers themselves is not taken seriously by the public. According to polls done by the Political Techniques Center right after the United Russia congress, it is universally viewed as a pro- government party - in the worst sense of the term. At least for the time being, criticism of the government by United Russia leader is failing to overcome negative stereotypes. There are two ways of explaining United Russia's inability to absorb public discontent, despite all the noise it has been making. First explanation: the traits of the party that cannot be stamped out. A national leader (Putin) can blend the right-wing and left-wing versions of populism - but that is not something a political party can do, because ideological consistency is expected of political parties. And if United Russia cannot absorb protest moods, its anti-government campaign is counterproductive because it plays into the hands of the Communist Party, its major political rival. Second explanation: populist-tinted criticism of the government is not exactly compatible with the party's slogan of "national success". In terms of consequences, United Russia's decision to shift to the right (the party is clearly aiming to become the pro-government majority in the parliament) may turn out to be a mistake. The political prospects of other parties close to the Kremlin are varied, but Gennadi Raikov's People's Party is believed to have the best chance. The appearance of a new "window of opportunity" made the situation of the People's Party even less clear. The party is structured around a nucleus comprised of an autonomous deputy group boasting of connections with regional and local elites and close contacts with the Kremlin. The elite resources and image of "the Kremlin's second party" demanded independent participation in the election, but districts (divided with United Russia) remain top priority for the People's Party, calling itself a "party of deputies from single-mandate districts". Difficulties encountered by United Russia and activization of protests may pave way for a fully-fledged list from the People's Party for the upcoming election. Its image is quite attractive for absorbing the non-communist protest vote. On the other hand, the party isn't very well known yet. When Party of Life leader Sergei Mironov publicly acknowledged United Russia's unquestioned leadership, it only confirmed the assumption that Party of Life is not going to present its own list of candidates for the Duma. It seems that leaders and sponsors of the party will be quite content to have some candidates on United Russia lists and/or several in single-mandate districts. The apparent weakness of Gennadi Seleznev's Russia's Renaissance has forced the Kremlin to put Mikhail Lapshin's Agrarian Party on the list of its proteges. Permitting these parties to come up with their own lists of candidates and supporting them to some degree, the Kremlin may restrict communist expansion into the center left. Yet the Kremlin fears that all these parties will take votes from United Russia rather than from the communists. The position of the Communist Party in the 1999 elections was determined by two major factors - ratings expansion and stabilization within the party itself. Supplementing each other, the factors made the Communist Party the leader. According to VTsIOM, the Communist Party's rating soared from 24% in February to 31% in March. The party successfully handled the consequences of its removal from decision-making in spring 2002, suppressed the internal Fronde inspired by the presidential administration, and regained its traditional positions. Viewed against this background, Mikhail Khodorkovsky's statement to the effect that some YUKOS shareholders intend to finance the Communist Party became the talk of the day. The statement reaffirmed the political weight of the party. The attempt to push the Communist Party out of the way, made in the course of preparations for the election, has failed. Khodorkovsky's statement may actually mean that the Kremlin is seriously considering the idea of inducing the Communist Party to evolve towards better compatibility with the regime. The rating of the Union of Right Forces has remained unchanged. According to VTsIOM, it held at 6% throughout February and March. Even the party's relations with the Kremlin seem to be improving somewhat. Boris Nemtsov is back in the spotlight and his activities are once again covered by national television networks. The Union of Right Forces still enjoys the support of major companies. The data compiled by VTsIOM indicates that Yabloko's rating fell from 8% in January to 5% in March. However, the party's prospects remain favorable. Like the Union of Right Forces, Grigori Yavlinsky's party responded to the war in Iraq just as the public did. As before, its election campaign is built around a combination of loyalty to the Kremlin and criticism of the Cabinet. In March and April 2003, the Yabloko faction in the Duma got political mileage defending state-sector workers and condemning reforms to housing and utilities. Khodorkovsky's public statement of his liking for Yabloko was taken as additional confirmation that the party was a fine object for political investment. The electoral prospects of the LDPR remain the best of all of the second-echelon political parties. Its rating remains reasonable, even rising slightly on the wave of public distaste for the American operation in Iraq. According to VTsIOM, the LDPR rating remained at 6% in January and February and rose to 7% in March. Vladimir Zhirinovsky's image of a political eccentric shields him from all accusations of inconsistency. His 2003 and 2004 campaigns will be based on loyalty to the Kremlin, as usual, and the use of some segments of protest sentiments in society. To summarize: public demands of the authorities are rising as the domestic situation stabilizes. Voter mobilization is underway, mostly restricted to communist voters for the time being. United Russia is being reorganized as a result of the Kremlin's compromise with regional elites - but is no longer the leader in the race. The Communist Party is the leader now, and may actually secure this position. The Kremlin and the Communists are fighting for the protest vote, a details which adds importance to what is called "the Sergei Glaziev factor". The outcome of the battles for the protest vote remains unclear at this point. Changes are mounting, and may eventually destroy the paradigm of campaigns centered around rivalry between the Kremlin's party and left-patriotic opposition. Igor Bunin, General Director Alexei Zudin, Chief of the Department of Political Sciences Programs Boris Makarenko, Senior Deputy General Director Alexei Makarkin, Chief of the Department of Analysis The article is based on materials prepared by the Political Techniques Center ******** #13 Russian Duma wants UN play central role in postwar Iraq Interfax Moscow, 18 April: The United Nations must play the central role in the postwar settlement in Iraq, reads a Russian State Duma statement on the situation in Iraq passed today. The draft of this document was put on the Duma's agenda for today at the initiative of the International Affairs Committee. The statement was unanimously supported by 390 parliamentarians. The document maintains that the Duma favours the soonest possible restoration of a political system and the economy in Iraq. "The principal burden of financial costs for this process should undoubtedly be shouldered by the active members of the anti-Iraq coalition," reads the statement. Other members of the international community can rightfully decide upon the extent and forms of their involvement in the postwar restoration of Iraq, including the provision of humanitarian aid and the settlement of debts, which is possible only within the framework of the Paris Club of creditors, reads the statement. The UN Security Council must first of all consider the lifting of economic sanctions against Iraq, the document reads. As for putting together new Iraqi authorities, the document notes that the establishment of these bodies with US and British military support exclusively out of figures who were in opposition to Saddam Husayn's regime will not promote stabilization in the region. "This approach cannot ensure nationwide credibility for these authorities and recognition of its legitimacy by the entire international community," it says. The Duma confirmed its earlier stance that the USA's and its allies' military operation against Iraq without UN Security Council approval "was a gross violation of international law". The Russian parliamentarians pointed to the fact that the international community has still not been provided with any evidence of Iraq's production, storage or use of banned types of weapons. The statement calls for investigating all civilian deaths, including those of foreign journalists, and bringing the guilty to justice. In addition, the deputies insisted that Russia be informed of the results of the investigation "into the assault on a Russian diplomatic convoy in Iraq by servicemen from the anti-Iraq coalition". Remaining critical about the USA's and allies' actions against Iraq, the State Duma realizes Russia's responsibility for maintaining strategic stability in the world and considers it necessary to continue Russian-American interaction in combating common global threats, including the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and international terrorism. ******* #14 Polyarnaya Zvezda (The Northern Star) www.zvezda.ru April 18, 2003 The World is Searching for a New Order: Will the US Define a New Place for Russia? An Interview with Nikolai Zlobin, Director of Russian and Asian Programs at the Center for Defense Information in Washington DC nzlobin@cdi.org Q: What, in your opinion, are the reasons behind the actions of the American administration and their war against Iraq? I think the rationale behind American policies is dictated by the necessity to reconsider the global system of security which, according to the White House view, cannot safeguard American safety and does not correspond to the country's national interests. Moreover, the issue of security has come to the forefront of not just politics, but the national consciousness as well, eclipsing the traditional American concern with the domestic economy. American politics were forced to undertake serious changes in their priorities, and that's why Bush's doctrine, along with the military-oriented faction of the administration, is now leading the way. September 11 showed that there is no sure way to safeguard against terrorism. Not one traditional system of international security can guarantee that, and it is therefore necessary to reconsider the very fundamentals of these systems. This means reviewing international law and the structure of international organizations that were created after the second world war, and have served as the basis of the international security arrangement ever since. It's necessary for America to re-examine the methods of safeguarding national security. I think America attempted to use this approach with Iraq as its first step. It's not a fact that the operation has been successful from that point of view, but sooner or later the international community will agree that the current security arrangement requires reform. No one is debating that - the discussion has focused on what reforms should be taken, and with what goals. Under these circumstances of having a fantastic advantage over the rest of the world, the US can proceed without consulting even its allies in NATO or Western Europe. The major strategic goal of the American military campaign in Iraq was to take the first step toward creating a new system of ensuring America's national security, which in the White House's eyes would become the new global security arrangement. Q: How will the war in Iraq affect America's image in the world? It appears that in the short term, this war will reflect quite negatively on America's image. When someone does something unprecedented, it always causes a negative reaction, and even if it turns out later that they were right, and that it should have been don, the first reaction will be negative. Any revolution, any dismantling of old laws will always cause a negative reaction. What the US is calling for is nothing less than a revolution in international relations and international law. I'm not saying this revolution is for better or worse, that's not the point. A revolution elicits a negative reaction from those who are used to living comfortably and safely under the conditions of an old security arrangement. For Western Europe, the second half of the 20th century was a golden age. And Russia had fairly many geopolitical opportunities to influence foreign affairs. Many countries found their place in the old arrangement, and knew the rules of the game. That's why any attempt to change the system or reform the UN is viewed as a negative development by those who stand to lose the most - France, for instance. So it's natural that the world's reaction to the war in Iraq should be extremely negative. Q: What role would Europe, Russia, and the Near East play in this new geopolitical arrangement? We are opening a new page in the history of international relations, when it's very difficult to formulate concepts such as "partners" and "allies". The principles upon which partnerships were based in the post-war period no longer apply. Moreover, it's hardly possible to create a bloc of countries in close proximity to each other, as was the case with Western and Eastern Europe, and then draw a geopolitical boundary. The new arrangement will be formed on the basis of less formal blocs, the so-called flexible coalitions, which would be formed to deal with specific problems and disband afterwards. Such a possibility should not be ignored. Therefore, to say that Russia, Western Europe and the Near East will play a particular role in the new system of international relations is not entirely correct, because that role will shift depending on the particular problem of the moment. We've already seen this - the anti-terrorist coalition is one thing, the Afghan coalition is another, and the anti-Iraq coalition is something else entirely. Countries don't necessarily belong to all three coalitions. Some countries have remained US allies, but did not participate in any of the coalitions. A time is coming when all the major players on the international arena, (not to mention countries like India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Japan, which are playing an increasingly greater role in world politics and economics), will not be able to rely on formalized partnerships and a clear demarcation of roles. Most likely, politics will become more reactive, dealing with specific problems, which is actually a situation fraught with dangers, since today's partners may enter into a pitched argument tomorrow, and become opponents. Q: Where do you see the future of the UN? The UN in its present form, with the functions and duties that it was given at its creation after WWII, requires very serious reform. First, the ideology and structure of the UN's major organs should be changed. In part, the structure of the Security Council is extremely archaic, because the countries that compose it are there as a result of being victors in WWII. Although France is only technically a winner - it entered the Security Council thanks to a compromise, as a country that participated in the fight against fascism. At the same time, countries that are not permanent members of the Security Council include Germany, Japan (the world's second largest economy), India (with its nuclear weapons and billion-strong population), Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil and many other countries, which cannot understand why five countries who won the second world war sixty years ago continue to resolve global problems within their own narrow circle. Moreover, the UN turned out to be poorly designed for dealing with international terrorism. Naturally, in 1945 no one posed such questions, and the UN was not as ready as we would have wished for problems of globalization, environmental protection, etc. Most importantly, the UN was not ready for dealing with problems that involved not sovereign states, but non-state organizations like Al-Qaeda, where you cannot sign agreements with them, or invite them to Security Council debates, or pass resolutions about them, since they have no formal state-like functions. Until the mechanisms for dealing with such problems are developed, the UN cannot become an effective international organization. The UN's fate is partially in its own hands - it must reform not from the point of view of self-preservation, but as an answer to those threats that the world community faces today. Q: Do you think the current situation with Iraq is comparable to the situation in the Balkans of 1999? How would you analyze the behavior of Russia and the EU in both cases? I think that in both cases Russia and the EU took a "catch-up" position. The EU especially could have taken a more proactive, leading role in solving these problems, instead of waiting for the situation to become a case of US bombing. Russia and Europe could have stepped in a lot earlier. We saw this scenario in Iraq. The difference between how America sees the situation and how Russia and the EU see the situation is that while everyone is interested in peace, each side is interested in a different kind of peace. For the EU in Iraq and in the former Yugoslavia the peace of the status quo was sufficient, but for the US, the quality of the peace was also very important - the country's political structure, transparency, and the behavior of its government should correspond to international norms, and cannot pose a threat either to their own people or to other governments. For the sake of such a peace, they were ready to use force, while Russia and Europe were not. Q: What changes does the American military doctrine face in light of the new threats to the country's national interests? The US military doctrine faces several serious changes. The first is the idea of a preventive strike, which is not an invention of the US - we might recall that the practice of using preventive strikes were part of Brezhnev's doctrine. The Soviet Union used it in Hungary in 1956 and in Czechoslovakia in 1968. The elimination of a potential threat before it attacks a country is an idea that has long existed in world history, but today it is becoming one of the keystones of American military doctrine. The second change is that American today feel less bound by international law, since their viewpoint is that old laws and norms have lost their meaning after the end of the cold war. A new era of struggle with international terrorism has begun, and existing international institutions demand, at the minimum, to be reformed if not replaced. The third change is the shift in the stance toward allies. The idea of allied relations based primarily upon ideological principles is fading. In its wake comes the idea of temporary alliances and partnerships. The changes will be numerous, and they will grow with the development of US military technology. An important change in US policies is the doctrine of limited sovereignty. Under the contemporary conditions of globalization, Americans think that all governments should have full sovereignty and independence with the exception of three cases: if they do not adhere to the rules of non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, if they wage a war against their own people, and if they support international terrorism. In such cases other countries must intervene, regardless of the state's sovereignty, and take appropriate action. That's the situation we are seeing in Iraq. Q: Could the US, which suffered heavy casualties in wars with third world countries while using only conventional weapons, use nuclear weapons? It would be very difficult to imagine a situation where Americans would suffer unacceptable casualties as a result of traditional warfare. Today's US army is so far ahead of any potential military foe that this question takes on a purely hypothetical character. But it's worthwhile to consider the process of miniaturizing nuclear weapons, and the development of tactical nuclear weapons which could be used to almost the same effect as conventional weapons. There are big gaps in the international control over tactical nuclear weapons. In the military doctrine of many countries, this question is not discussed, and there is a possibility that such weapons may someday be used. Q: Should we expect a new anti-terrorist campaign from the US and if so, against whom? International terrorism is not represented by any government. It could be represented by structures like the al-Qaeda, and it could be strengthened if some government offers it a safe haven and opportunities, if it attempts to legitimize it or support it with money or armaments. In that case, such a government will become the next target of American policies, including military policies. I hope that after Iraq there will not be such a naïve political leadership that would agree to do that. Q: Is Syria one of these governments in the eyes of the Americans? For the American public opinion this is a completely new development. I don't see Syria as the next military target. There needs to be some proof that the Syrians are helping Saddam or the remnants of his regime. In any case, to start a way against another Muslim government is, from the point of view of securing America's national interests, not very pragmatic. Therefore Syria will be under a close watch, but at the moment there is a number of functioning mechanisms, including diplomatic and economic ones, for bringing this country in line. Q: What can Iran expect, in light of current events? With Iran, the issue is how much Iranian society is capable of modernizing, and to what extent any outside pressures will prevent the liberalization of Iranian society, which is latently underway. There is an opinion in Washington that any American attempts to pressure Iran will lead to a crackdown on any dissident movements and sentiments within Iran, and a greater centralization of power and further dogmatization of Iranian society. Regarding the development of weapons of mass destruction in Iran, including nuclear weapons - this cannot be solved today without a corresponding from the Russian side. Here Russian politics are becoming more realistic, but Russia is still far from becoming an American ally on this issue. If Russia and America unite and attempt to prevent the development of military nuclear technology, it's unlikely that any military intervention will be required. Translated by Seva Gunitskiy ******** #15 Rosbalt April 19, 2003 Image Problem Impedes Tourism Development in St. Petersburg Katherine Ters contributed this article to Rosbalt. Despite the hype surrounding St. Petersburg's 300-year jubilee celebrations, a serious image problem is impeding the development of the northern capital's arguably most-important industry. St. Petersburg's international tourism professionals say more needs to be done to create a positive image of the city overseas. They say if tarnished Soviet Intourist stereotypes are to be vanquished forever, it's vital that politicians address the fundamental issues which make life difficult for tourists in Russia, including complicated visa processes, the lack of tourist information, poor service and crime and harassment. St. Petersburg was declared one of the world's top-ten tourist destinations, according to a UNESCO report, last year, which said that 30 million people wanted to visit Russia's cultural capital. St. Petersburg competes with Prague, Vienna and Paris, and yet has drastically lower visitor numbers than all three. Russia's Northwest Federal District - where St. Petersburg is located - is about the same size as Eastern Europe. In terms of population, it can be compared to the Czech Republic. In 2001, the Czech Republic received 103 million foreign visitors - whose spending was estimated to account for 5.3 percent of the country's GDP. In 2001, Northwest Russia had 2.8 million foreign visitors, of whom 2.7 million visited St. Petersburg - according the St. Petersburg city government. International and domestic visitor numbers have been growing at between six and eight percent per year over the past five years, but local hoteliers say these numbers would be higher if life was made easier for tourists. 'St. Petersburg has very good potential as a major tourist city,' said Lindsay Ellwood, Managing Partner at the local branch of KPMG. 'And there is a growing realization that tourism - as an industry - can offer the city a lot, but a whole process needs to occur for St. Petersburg to be able to fulfill its tourism potential. That involves hotels, transport - making transport more accessible for foreigners - and the general improvement of the city's infrastructure,' he said. While hotel development may take some time, at a more most basic level, street and metro signs in the city center need to be in Roman script, as well as Cyrillic. In 2002, some streets signs with bilingual script went up on key streets around Nevsky Prospect, but, over the last month, a new batch of Russian-only signs have appeared - ironic, considering the city is expecting an unprecedented number of foreign guests from 60 different countries during the jubilee. Currently, detailed, multi-lingual information about the city's public transport system is not readily available, and one of the city's most-visited suburbs: Pushkin, does not even have a tourist information office. The city authorities seem unaware that, unlike most Russian tourists, a large number of international tourists prefer to sightsee independently and may, in fact, abhor tedious Russian tours with their reverberating loudspeakers. Several local hotel owners said that their guests frequently complained about the lack of practical information in English about how to get around the city. The Russian practice of closing tourist-information centers on weekends and holidays, is not a great help either. Despite the lack of multi-lingual resources in St. Petersburg's cultural institutions, foreign tourists are still expected to pay through the nose in most palaces, museums and theaters. Foreigners at the Mariinsky Theater usually pay six times the Russian price, while at the Hermitage, Russians pay 50 cents, while foreigners pay USD 10 for entrance. 'There is a significant difference in income between most tourists and most locals,' said Steven Caron, the director and owner of travel agency Sindbad Travel and St. Petersburg's first international youth hostel. 'I can appreciate that, but foreigner-prices leave a bad taste in the mouth of tourists,' he said. Rachel Shackleton, the owner and director of local training-company Concept, said that she didn't have a problem with the idea of a structured pricing policy. 'I think it's wonderful that Russians are so knowledgeable about their culture, and that it is so accessible to them, but I don't think that foreigners should be ripped off and we are ripped off.' Shackleton also said that if a theater was going to have western prices, then it should have western standards. 'People have said to me that you pay the same price in the Mariinsky as you pay in Convent Garden - and you do,' she said. 'But at Convent Garden, you have a decent seat - with no-one pushing into your box during the performance, and there aren't any babushkas shouting at you.' Angry babushkas are not an uncommon sight in Russia's cultural institutions. Shackleton added that some customer-service training wouldn't go astray at the Mariinsky or the Hermitage. 'Four years ago, Russia abolished foreigner prices on public transport,' said one hotelier. 'The same approach should be taken with cultural institutions and hotels because the vast majority of foreigners see the two-tiered pricing policy as backward, exploitative and blatantly discriminatory.' The wide-held belief in Russia that all foreigners are rich also makes tourists a target for crime and harassment. People 'dressed as police' routinely harass and rob foreign tourists. Last year, there were more than 300 reported cases of this kind of violence against foreigners in St. Petersburg. Shackleton said that this problem is not being taken seriously enough by the authorities. The city has set up a police help-line specifically for foreigners, although one hotelier reported that the line seemed to be rarely attended. Russia is not known for its service, but in a tourist city like St. Petersburg, it's surprising how rude and unhelpful people in the customer-service and tourism industries often are. 'Russians sometimes associate the concept of service, or 'obsluzhivanie,' with being servile, or less than the client,' said Caron. 'It's not about that, it's about caring about your client and giving them the best experience possible.' 'There is no history of customer service in Russia,' said Shackleton. 'So you can't expect people to instantly become customer-oriented. It's not natural. It's particularly difficult for people to understand the concept of service when they have a limited experience of it themselves.' Shackleton said that as more Petersburgers travel and experience good service first-hand, the city's service levels would also improve. While foreigner prices and bad service certainly annoy tourists, the red tape associated with getting to Russia in the first place is probably the most serious impediment to the development of St. Petersburg's tourism industry. 'The visa issue needs to be resolved,' said Paul Edwards, the manager at St. Petersburg's Taleon Casino - which frequently brings international groups to St. Petersburg. 'It's costing Russia millions in tourist dollars every year.' New immigration laws - passed last July - did nothing to simplify the immigration process. Foreigners are still required to obtain invitations before they can apply for tourist visas, and to register their visas in every town they visit for more then three days - two seemingly redundant processes. 'The new visa regulations are disappointing,' Caron said. 'The Ministry of Foreign Affairs isn't considering the tourist economy.' In accordance with the new laws, tourist visas can only be issued for one month. When backpacking and eco-tourism are among the fastest-growing tourist sectors in western countries, it's surprising that the Russian Government didn't consider that some tourists may want to stay in Russia longer than a month, and in doing so, may inadvertently bring much-needed foreign investment to Russia's impoverished regions. The Federal Government needs to stop its tit-for-tat immigration policies and look at ways to use tourism to really forward the country's economic development. Slow, difficult and expensive visa processes mean that tourists who are traveling on impromptu or short-notice trips, will simply choose to go elsewhere. One local tourist operator, who preferred to remain unnamed, said that St. Petersburg was completely missing the weekend holiday market because of scheduling issues at local airport Pulkovo. Government-owned Pulkovo Aviation Enterprise operates the airport and runs an airline with the same name. 'To get the weekend market back, first, we need to be take the monopoly off the airport,' she said. 'Scheduling limitations on international carriers are making it difficult for people to come here for short trips on the carrier of their choice. That, combined with visa hassles, means that most Brits and Europeans just can't be bothered to come here,' she said. Pulkovo's reputation hasn't improved any since the announcement in mid-March that the airport would be closed to commercial flights during the jubilee: from 30 May to 1 June. International carriers will incur significant losses as a result, and many individual tourists have had to purchase new visas with new departure dates as airlines have announced they will delay their flights until after the jubilee, rather than re-routing them through Helsinki, as the city government suggested. Several hoteliers also said that St. Petersburg needs better marketing strategies and more federal funding for regional tourism promotional activities. 'The city government needs to determine their target markets and develop a legitimate advertising campaign - particularly for winter,' Caron said. 'The UK, Germany, France, Scandinavia and the US are the most likely targets,' he said. Shackleton said that she thought that the city's cultural institutions needed to cooperate better and focus on city promotional campaigns, rather than just their own. 'Even just within the government, they need to start talking to one another and developing a joint plan,' she said. Thomas Noll, the general manager of the Corinthia Nevskij Palace Hotel on Nevsky Prospect, thought that the city government's marketing efforts were improving. 'The city government recognizes the importance of tourism and they are starting to work together with the hoteliers of the city; they're even asking our advice,' he said. 'I also think the PR-effect of the 300-year celebrations, with thousands of journalists coming to the city, will significantly uplift St. Petersburg as a tourist destination.' Let's hope so. ******** Web page for CDI Russia Weekly: http://www.cdi.org/russia Archive for Johnson's Russia List: http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson With support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the MacArthur Foundation A project of the Center for Defense Information (CDI) 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW Washington DC 20036