Johnson's Russia List
#6602
16 December 2002
davidjohnson@erols.com
A CDI Project
www.cdi.org
[Contents:
1. Interfax: Half of Russians hope year 2003 won't be worse than 2002,
poll shows.
2. AP: Russia Seeks Talks With Iraq on Oil Deal.
3. New York Times: Sabrina Tavernise, In Turnaround, Russia Plucks Itself
Off
the Endangered List.
4. Inostranets: FORWARD TO SOVIET TIMES! (poll)
5. Argumenty i Fakty: Vitaly Tseplyaev and Alexander Kolesnichenko,
CONSTITUTION
PASSIONS. Herding the sacred cow: arguments for and against constitutional
change.
6. Moscow Times: Kevin O'Flynn, Constitution Goes Under the Brush.
7. Reuters: Russian colonel declared insane in Chechen murder. (Budanov)
8. Christian Science Monitor: Fred Weir, Life among Grozny's ruins. The
Kremlin
takes journalists on a tour to show that Chechnya is returning to civilian
normalcy.
But is nightly mortar fire normal?
9. AP: Russian Official: Peace Corps Suspicious.
10. RIA Novosti: MOSCOW STUDIES US NEW NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR COMBATING
WEAPONS OF
MASS DESTRUCTION.
11. Vremya Novostei: SATAN MISSILES TO REMAIN IN USE UNTIL 2016.
The Strategic Missile Forces prepare to celebrate their 43rd anniversary.
12. Yezhenedelnyi Zhurnal: Alexander Golts, CONSCRIPTION SYNDROME.
Military reforms stall because the top brass is addicted to conscription.
13. Interfax: Poll shows only four parties likely to make it into Duma in
coming
elections.
14. www.fednews.ru: PRESS CONFERENCE WITH CPRF LEADER GENNADY ZYUGANOV.
15. Boston Globe: Tom Haines, This look at the city is hardly historic.
(St.Petersburg)
16. Boston Globe: Bruce Konviser, Latvia pushes Russian minority to margin.
Citizenship law is latest to polarize ex-Soviet satellite.
17. Dow Jones: Anna Ivanova-Galitsina, Russian Carmakers Step On M&A Pedal.]
*******
#1
Half of Russians hope year 2003 won't be worse than 2002, poll shows
MOSCOW. Dec 16 (Interfax) - Fifty-eight percent of Russians hope that 2003
will be no worse than 2002. One-third of respondents said they expect the
coming year to be better than 2002, and one-fourth believe it will be the
same. Only 11% were pessimistic about next year.
This information was provided to Interfax by the Public Opinion
Foundation. It is based on a poll of 1,500 respondents, which was conducted
on December 7.
The percentage of those who expected 2003 to be better than 2002 is
highest among Putin supporters (43%), people under 35 (54%), people with
university degrees (47%) and residents of large cities (47%).
An estimated 13% of respondents simply "hope for better things," 4%
believe that "life in Russia under Putin simply has to be better each
year," another 4% said the country "is overcoming the crisis," and 2%
expect "higher living standards."
Pessimists mentioned growing prices (4%), Russia's high foreign debt,
and a slump in oil prices (3%).
When asked what good and bad events took place in Russia in 2002, 80% of
respondents mentioned bad events, and only 23% mentioned good events (more
than one answer could be given to this question).
Among the sad events that occurred in 2002, 63% mentioned the Dubrovka
theater siege, 11% the Kuban flood, the glacier slide in the Karmadon
Gorge, and the crash of the plane carrying children from Ufa, 7% mentioned
the war in Chechnya, 3% the decreasing living standards and increase of
inflation, 2% contract murders and the rise in crime, and 1% the tragic
deaths of Alexander Lebed and Sergei Bodrov.
Among good things, 5% of Russians surveyed noted the increase of living
standards, 4% the fact that the Russian team won the Davis Cup, "the Winter
Olympics," "the president's anniversary," and also "the release of the
Nord-Ost hostages." Three percent of Russians polled mentioned the
achievements of Russia's foreign policy.
*******
#2
Russia Seeks Talks With Iraq on Oil Deal
December 16, 2002
By JUDITH INGRAM
MOSCOW (AP) - Russia turned up the heat on Iraq on Monday, with its foreign
minister demanding that Baghdad open talks to resolve a dispute over a
canceled contract with Russia's largest oil company.
During a visit to Manila, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said he had
sent a message requesting that the Iraqi leadership reconsider its decision
to break the 1997 contract with Lukoil and open negotiations, the Interfax
news agency reported.
The negotiations should be aimed at finding ``a mutually acceptable
settlement of the situation, which does not damage the interests of the
Russian company,'' Ivanov was quoted as saying. He said the message was
``toughly worded,'' Interfax reported.
Last week, Lukoil said it had received a letter signed by an Iraqi deputy
oil minister that announced Iraq was breaking its contract with Lukoil and
two other Russian companies, Zarubezhneft and Mashinoimport, to develop the
West Qurna-2 field.
Iraq's ambassador to Moscow, Abbas Khalaf, said Sunday that Baghdad had
severed the contract because Lukoil had failed to start work at the West
Qurna-2 field. He dismissed Lukoil's argument that it was hampered by the
United Nations' sanctions on Iraq, saying other Russian companies had
worked in Iraq, and said that only the contract with Lukoil had been canceled.
Iraq's relations with Russian oil companies have seemed to shift with
Russia's actions in the U.N. Security Council, where it has been Baghdad's
biggest supporter since the Gulf War, seeking to secure the removal of the
sanctions.
While Russia still says it hopes sanctions can be lifted, it voted last
month to approve the tough resolution demanding Iraq comply with U.N.
inspectors who are now in the country trying to determine whether it has
scrapped all programs for weapons of mass destruction, as it claims.
Khalaf on Sunday rejected allegations that the decision had anything to do
with politics. He said he was aware of reports that Lukoil was talking to
the United States in a bid to secure its interests in Iraq if Saddam
Hussein is ousted, but refused to comment.
President Bush has assured Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia
would be a major player in rebuilding a postwar Iraq - a promise intended
to quell Moscow's fears that a new Iraqi government might renege on
Baghdad's $7 billion Soviet-era debt to Moscow and snub Russian firms in
favor of U.S. and other Western companies.
*******
#3
New York Times
December 16, 2002
In Turnaround, Russia Plucks Itself Off the Endangered List
By SABRINA TAVERNISE
MOSCOW -- Two years ago, everyone from electric company bosses to President
Vladimir V. Putin was predicting catastrophe for 2003.
The year was to be Russia's own Y2K. A mass of foreign debt would push
Russia back into bankruptcy. The country's infrastructure — its vast
electricity grid, telephone networks, oil and gas pipelines, and roads —
would have aged to a critical point, creating a drag on the economy and
even emergency breakdowns. And a shrinking population would reach the point
where pensioners outnumbered the young.
In short, Russia had three short years to repair, rebuild, repay and
reproduce.
Mr. Putin addressed his cabinet on the matter shortly after a series of
seemingly preventable accidents — a fire in Moscow's main television tower
and the sinking of the Kursk nuclear submarine. Mr. Putin set up a "2003
problem" commission of members of Parliament.
Newspaper headlines predicted disaster. After the fire and the Kursk's
sinking, which left 118 sailors dead, the weekly Argumenti i Fakti wrote,
"It's as if we've angered the gods." Another weekly, Delovie Lyudi, wrote:
"Procrastination is no longer like death. It is death."
But with 2003 fast approaching, the danger seems to have faded. The economy
is growing. Russia's central bank reserves are at their high since the
collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and more than quadruple the level of
four years ago. The budget is in surplus for the third straight year.
Companies are investing, and worker productivity is up 7 percent this year.
"There is real restructuring of companies, and this is continuing to drive
Russia," said Peter Boone, head of research at Brunswick UBS Warburg, an
investment bank in Moscow. "Reserves are so large they are dripping out of
the central bank."
What, one might ask, went right? Russia, politically and economically
dysfunctional as little as four years ago, is evolving toward being a
respected member of the world community.
Financial self-sufficiency has eliminated the danger of a government debt
crisis. Helped by the high price of crude oil, a big export, the government
has set aside extra cash to help it make debt payments this year and next.
It has also bought back about a quarter of the foreign debt it owes next
year.
As a result, Russia will be paying $15.5 billion in foreign debt in 2003,
down from more than $20 billion. For a third straight year, the Russian
government is set to meet all its debt payments without real risk of
default or help from foreign lenders.
"All indications are that there is a lot of money coming into Russia," said
Roland Nash, head of research at Renaissance Capital, an investment bank in
Moscow. "The increase in central bank reserves this year is huge."
Concern about the 2003 problem did serve to propel a central economic
reform — the reorganization of Russia's vast electricity industry. While
predictions of the industry's collapse were overstated, international
financial institutions like the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development have said that Russian electricity needs investment to modernize.
But such changes have been slow to move through Parliament, bogged down in
arguments over how the plan to split apart the world's largest electricity
grid will be carried out.
Demographic worries have been eased by a recent census. A preliminary count
showed that Russia's population has shrunk by two million over the last
decade, even as Russians returned from republics of the former Soviet
Union. The decline, which brought Russia's population to 145 million, was
less than originally feared.
Also, a recent report of an upturn in the birthrate gave cause for
optimism. And as Russia emerges from a decade-long economic slump, the
birthrate may continue to recover and the death rate to decline, economists
said.
A danger is in the fluctuation of the price of oil, the lifeblood of
Russia's budget, which receives a third of its revenue from oil and gas.
Russia's economy is more diversified than that of the largest oil exporter,
Saudi Arabia, but is still prone to boom-and-bust swings as the commodity
price of crude oil rises and falls.
Mr. Boone of Brunswick UBS Warburg contends that as long as the price of
oil is at least $19 a barrel, the government's budget will not need
adjusting and large oil companies will continue investment programs that
have been central to the current economic expansion.
Even so, Russia would feel the pinch if oil prices, which have averaged
about $25 a barrel this year, fell. A prolonged period of low prices would
slow growth. Every dollar in the oil price is equal to just over $1 billion
in federal revenue. Yet few expect a debt crisis — from companies or
government — as both have maintained low levels of borrowing since the
damaging default in the summer of 1998.
In a move welcomed by economists because it would give Russia's federal
budget a much-needed injection of cash, the Russian government announced
this month that it would once again try to sell a 5.9 percent stake in
Lukoil, the country's largest oil company.
Four months earlier the government called off the sale because the prices
offered were too low, but the company's shares have since climbed
significantly. The Russian Federal Property Fund, the trustee for the
state's industrial shareholdings, said the sale would reduce the state's
stake in Lukoil to 7.6 percent. It gave no details on the timing of the new
sale.
The shares are intended to be offered in the form of American depositary
receipts, but will be sold on the London Stock Exchange.
In addition to the Lukoil stake, the Russian government plans to sell 74
percent of one of its last fully owned oil companies, Slavneft, this week.
Many economists in Russia argue that a low oil price would be good for the
economy because it would force the country to develop other leading
industries. A more diverse economy would be stronger and less dependent on
the fickle oil market.
"In Russia, our natural resources are our blessing and our tragedy,"
Grigory A. Yavlinsky, leader of the liberal Yabloko political party, said
at an energy conference this fall. "They help us to develop, but they keep
us from developing."
For the time being, he added, Russia's economy is still fairly dependent on
oil. "Our economic model is like a drug addict with a gas pipe in one hand
and an oil pipe in the other," Mr. Yavlinsky said. "High prices bring a lot
of hallucinations. But if prices fall, the withdrawal is painful."
*******
#4
Inostranets
December 10, 2002
FORWARD TO SOVIET TIMES!
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
According to a poll done by the National Public Opinion Research
Center (VTsIOM) on November 22-25, with 1,600 respondents, 48% of
respondents support the idea of extending Vladimir Putin's term in
office to seven years after the 2004 presidential election; 41% of
respondents oppose this; and 11% are uncertain. At the same time, 46%
of respondents agree that the president should have the right to run
for three or four terms in office; 43% are opposed, and 11% are
uncertain.
Hence, around half of respondents do not object to the idea that
Putin's term could be extended to give him a total of eleven years in
office.
The results of this poll highlight the striking changes in public
attitudes since the late 1980s and early 1990s. Back then, most Soviet
citizens were weary of old men remaining in the Kremlin indefinitely,
and supported regular changes of government, restricting presidents to
two terms.
Now, apparently, the longing for "stability" - not without help
from above - is reviving in its old Soviet form, and starting to edge
out the awareness that democratic standards for restrictions on the
authorities are essential.
*******
#5
Argumenty i Fakty
No. 50
December 11, 2002
CONSTITUTION PASSIONS
Herding the sacred cow: arguments for and against constitutional change
Author: Vitaly Tseplyaev, Alexander Kolesnichenko
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
ON DECEMBER 12, THE RUSSIAN POLITICAL BEAU MONDE GATHERS AT THE
KREMLIN TO CELEBRATE THE NINTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE RUSSIAN
CONSTITUTION. THE PARADOX IS THAT MANY OF THOSE TOASTING THE
CONSTITUTION ON THAT DAY ARE OPENLY OR SECRETLY PLANNING TO REVISE IT.
At various times, almost all of Russia's former prime ministers -
Viktor Chernomyrdin, Yevgeny Primakov, Sergei Kirienko - called for
amendments to the Constitution. Right after the dismissal of Sergei
Stepashin, Kirienko, for example, demanded that the president should
be restricted from dismissing the government without the approval of
the the Duma majority. Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov also supported
"reduced" presidential powers. Federation Council Speaker Sergei
Mironov made another controversial proposal: to increase the
president's term in office from four to seven years. Duma Speaker
Gennady Seleznev then said that the Constitution is not a "sacred
cow"; it can and should be amended.
However, as soon as President Putin declared that it was
premature to make any amendments to the Constitution, most of these
people suddenly "saw the light". Neither Kirienko nor Mironov are
proposing any amendments now. However, Mironov did say cautiously: "It
is still necessary to think of new approaches to the Constitution -
does it correspond to the spirit of the times?" On the whole, the
centrists have obeyed the president's will and postponed revision of
the constitution. Those who are still dissatisfied with the
Constitution can be divided into three groups.
First, the communists. Communist Gennady Zyuganov was scathing in
his comments: "The Constitution is suffocating the nation; it does not
guarantee any rights for anyone. Although it says that the will of the
people may be freely expressed, the Duma has cut into this by banning
referendums in election years. The entire system of governance is a
monstrosity. It is an autocratic Constitution: the Kremlin is the
clan, the Cabinet is the patrimonial estate, the Duma is a factory for
churning out laws, and the Federation Council is the place for
honorable exile rather than a place where the interests of the regions
can find expression."
Secondly, there is the Union of Right Forces. Boris Nadezhdin,
deputy leader of the URF Duma faction, says there are two necessary
amendments: "Parliamentary oversight [an amendment which has been
passed in the first reading, giving the Duma the power to investigate
the conduct of Cabinet ministers - Editor's note]. The second
amendment, proposed by members from the Astrakhan region, would
introduce direct elections to the Federation Council - the Union of
Right Forces supports this."
Thirdly, not all regional leaders are satisfied with the
Constitution. For instance, Saratov Governor Dmitry Ayatskov says: "I
would make an amendment to ensure real equality among Russian regions:
at present, the ethnic republics have presidents and constitutions,
while other regions have governors and charters. It is necessary to
remove this asymmetry. There should be only one president in Russia.
There should be no more than 50 regions. The next amendment should
stipulate a presidential term of no less than five years. Finally, it
is necessary to abolish the Federation Council - how can these
unelected people decide the fate of the nation? The State Council
should decide the most important issues - declaring war, and so on."
It is unknown whether President Putin will ever hear this advice.
It seems that at present he is more inclined to heed the arguments of
those who oppose revision of the Constitution.
Sergei Shakhrai, one of the authors of the present Constitution,
a distinguished lawyer and a professor at the Moscow State Institute
for Foreign Relations: "First, one or two amendments wouldn't be the
end of it. As soon as the Constitution is 'unsealed', a redistribution
of powers would be launched within the 'Bermuda triangle' of the
president, the Cabinet, and the parliament. This would plunge the
nation into political instability... Secondly, it is possible to carry
out reforms without revising the Constitution: for instance, it didn't
foresee the creation of federal districts, but they exist by
presidential decree. Some say the Constitution is an obstacle to
merging regions: in fact, a constitutional law and a presidential
decree would suffice to form a new region. Neither does Constitution
prohibit direct elections of Federation Council members."
Those who support keeping the Constitution as it stands cite the
example of the United States. In the course of 215 years and 42
presidents, there have only been 26 amendments to the US Constitution.
But in our country, each new ruler has tried to rewrite the
Constitution to suit himself. That's why they bear the names of the
rulers: Lenin's Constitution (1918), Stalin's Constitution (1936),
Brezhnev's Constitution (1977), Yeltsin's Constitution (1993). Only
Nikita Khrushchev and Mikhail Gorbachev were exceptions (Yuri Andropov
and Konstantin Chernenko don't count, they weren't in power very
long); but both Khrushchev and Gorbachev did set up constitutional
commissions to work on amendments which they didn't have time to make.
A prominent state official told us anonymously: "We have to break
this vicious circle." He then paraphrased the well-known words of
Viktor Stepanovich: "If you have an itch, scratch it elsewhere...
Hands off the Constitution!"
(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova)
*******
#6
Moscow Times
December 16, 2002
Constitution Goes Under the Brush
By Kevin O'Flynn
Staff Writer
The 60-page booklet has sold hundreds of thousands of copies over the past
nine years but has probably never been described as an exciting read. A new
art exhibition hopes to change that by taking the dry words of the Russian
Constitution and illustrating each article with images as varied as a giant
bulldog being milked by a naked man to a neglected graveyard.
The country's top modern artists have taken separate articles from the
Constitution as inspiration for a series of works that, even with the
recent Constitution Day holiday, has arguably provided the document with
more attention than it got when created after the bloody events at the
White House in 1993.
The illustrated Constitution, on display until Jan. 10 at the S.Art
Gallery, shows off 33 articles through the eyes of artists such as Andrei
Bilzho, of cartoon character Petrovich fame, and shock artist Oleg Kulik,
who once got married to a dog. The exhibition is the beginning of a project
that aims to illustrate the whole of the Constitution -- all 137 articles
-- in time for its 10th anniversary next year.
Art and the Russian Constitution have much in common, said Pyotr Vois, the
director of the gallery and the artist behind Article 29. Both were
constructed carefully, with every word -- or image -- having a certain
meaning.
"Most of the work is critical and ironic. That's the realism of art," said
Vois, whose contribution is a dummy magazine cover representing citizen's
rights. "Artists try to find sincerity. ... Art reacts to lies."
Many of the artists play with the obvious inconsistencies between what the
Constitution says and what happens in reality. Kulik -- whose previous
works have often featured dogs and naked men, usually himself -- tackled
Article 132, which refers to the independence of local governments, and
came up with a naked man milking a giant bulldog. It's a reflection of how
local government relies on handouts from the bulldog of a federal state,
Vois said.
Article 33, on a citizen's right to see his government representative, is a
painting with the words "Idite v zhopu," or "Sod off," by Sergei Denisov
and Ivan Kolesnikov. One of the more biting exhibits is Article 36 by
Sergei Denisov, Ivan Kolesnikov and Alexei Rodionov, which refers to
everyone's right to have their own land. That article is represented by a
ramshackle gravestone, the only land anyone is guaranteed. Vois noted,
however, that even that land might get taken away.
Hopefully, the exhibition will have educational value as well, Vois said.
"People don't believe in the law. It will give people a chance to look at
the Constitution and see we have a lot of rights and we can use them," he
said.
Not all the pictures are critical or ironic. Perhaps the most simple and
effective work is Vladimir Chaika's interpretation of Article 14, which
defines Russia as a multi-confessional country with no religion having
priority over any other. Chaika makes a colorful face out of the country's
four major religions, the green crescent moon of Islam forming a smile, the
Christian cross the nose with Jewish and Buddhist symbols making the eyes.
Some of the artwork may leave the viewer guessing, such as an illustration
of a naked woman on a carpet for an article relating to the right to work.
Others leave little doubt about the link between the article and the image.
Article 65, which lists the 89 regions of Russia, is just a picture by
Vladimir Chaika of various stones, with the words "Come Together" written
on two in the middle. Artist Sergei Shutov shows a figure in the shadow for
Article 83, which describes the functions of the president.
With many of the artists -- like much of the population -- having not put
the Constitution on their bedtime reading list, most needed to do some
reading before starting work. "I only read one article," artist Konstantin
Batynkov said on NTV television, before adding, "But I also read the Tax
Code just in case."
Once the whole Constitution is illustrated, a book of all the artwork
accompanied by critical essays will be published, Vois said. It is a book
Vois believes will show off the talents of modern Russian artists.
"We will have an encyclopedia of modern art with the 'brand name' of the
Russian Constitution," he said. "It might draw attention to modern Russian
art. Modern Russian art is not easy, so it will help explain it."
S.ART Gallery, which is open 12 p.m. to 8 p.m., is located at 14 Zemlyanoi
Val, metro Kurskaya. Tel. 916-0366, 917-5454.
*******
#7
Russian colonel declared insane in Chechen murder
MOSCOW, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The first senior Russian officer to go on trial
for crimes against civilians in the breakaway republic of Chechnya has been
declared insane, Interfax news agency quoted court officials as saying on
Monday.
In a trial closely monitored by human rights groups, Colonel Yuri Budanov
faces charges of killing a young Chechen woman during Moscow's military
campaign in the rebellious Caucasus republic more than two years ago.
Moscow has come under repeated international criticism of its human rights
record in the predominantly Muslim province where Russian troops have spent
much of the last 10 years trying to stamp out a separatist rebellion.
The charges carry a jail term of up to 20 years but would likely be
considerably reduced for a defendant shown to have been insane at the time.
Budanov is accused of killing 18-year-old Elza Kungayeva during questioning
at a Russian base in Chechnya in early 2000. His lawyers have said he
should be freed because he was "temporarily insane" at the time.
Budanov says he did not mean to kill her.
The trial began in February 2001 in Russia's southern city of Rostov-on-Don
but has been interrupted several times for Budanov's psychiatric reassessment.
Officials at Russian military prosecutors' office told Itar-Tass news
agency that the results of Budanov's psychiatric examination would be
announced in court later in the day.
As a result of the latest examination, which matches earlier psychiatric
assessments, forensic psychiatrists say Budanov should undergo medical
treatment, Interfax said.
*******
#8
Christian Science Monitor
December 16, 2002
Life among Grozny's ruins
The Kremlin takes journalists on a tour to show that Chechnya is returning
to civilian normalcy. But is nightly mortar fire normal?
By Fred Weir | Special to The Christian Science Monitor
GROZNY, RUSSIA -- Chechnya's single, state-run television channel paints a
rosy picture of normal life returning to this war-ravaged republic: homes
being rebuilt, services restored, and people enthusiastically embracing the
latest Kremlin-authored peace plan.
But off-camera, some of the TV employees tell a different story.
Like many ostensibly pro-Moscow Chechens met during a journalists' tour of
Grozny that was hosted and tightly managed by the Russian military, the
workers said that severe Russian security measures and nightly rebel
activity make life among the Chechen capital's ruins far from normal.
Even in the presence of Russian security minders, some Chechens whispered
about relatives and friends who disappeared after being detained at Russian
checkpoints, known as blokposti, which dominate every major intersection in
the city. "There is not even the most elementary safety. People can't be
sure they will even be alive tomorrow," says Ruhman Musayeva, a TV producer.
Once a graceful Caucasus foothills city of 1 million, Grozny has been
shattered in two wars. While a few hundred thousand people may still
inhabit the less severely damaged suburbs, its center is a landscape of
wrecked buildings, minefields, and rubble. Each evening the Russians raced
to get their visitors inside the Khankala military base before darkness
fell and the pounding of artillery, the whump of mortars and the rattle of
machine-gun fire began.
The theme of last week's tour, which our hosts repeated like a mantra, was
the return of order to Chechnya under Russian rule, after a decade of war
and semi-independence under separatist leadership.
"Before [Russian forces returned to Chechnya] this was a lawless territory
where bandits did whatever they liked," says Colonel Ilya Shabalkin, head
of the FSB security service's regional operations. "Now the important
things are provided, such as food, housing, warmth, and security. The
Russian forces here are not fighting a war; they are carrying out specific,
targeted operations to catch individual terrorists. They are acting under
the law."
There is some truth to the Russian claims. Even the worst-hit sections of
Grozny clearly have gas and electricity; a few schools and hospitals are
open; and a handful of wrecked apartment blocs in the city's center are
under renovation. "There are some repairs being done on about 10 percent of
Grozny's buildings," says Ruslan Timurov, a construction worker at one
site. "But it's very slow. The electricity goes off all the time, and we
have to finish at 3 p.m. so we can get home before dark. It's very
dangerous here, especially in the downtown area."
In the wars, Grozny's water supply became tainted by underground oil, and
now all supplies are trucked in. The search for water for bathing, cooking,
and sanitation is a daily struggle.
But such problems pale beside the terror even pro-Russian Chechens say they
endure when passing through the blokposti and during zachistki, periodic
Russian security sweeps. "My husband was dragged out of his car by Russian
soldiers last summer, he was kicked and punched," says Roza Yusupova,
senior nurse at the Grozny hospital. "He was lucky. Many men from our
village have been taken away and never returned."
One of the few bright spots is the State Oil Institute, which is preparing
some 300 students in hopes that Chechnya's once-booming oil industry might
one day be restored. But after a largely upbeat interview, Vice-Rector
Sharpudi Zaurbekov, glancing nervously at Russian security officers in the
room, says: "The biggest problem here is that our students keep getting
detained at blokposti when they travel to and from school. (The Russians)
say they are suspected of rebel activity. I have to go and intervene
personally each time." This has happened about 15 times in the past year,
he says, adding:, "Thank God none of our students has disappeared
permanently."
The issue of hundreds, perhaps thousands, of missing people is the most
sensitive of all. Russian military minders, citing security concerns,
forcibly prevented journalists from making contact with about 20 elderly
Chechen women who attempted to reach them, bearing portraits of sons and
husbands who have disappeared. One of the women, Yakhita Bakriyeva, later
slipped past the minders, saying she wanted the world to know about her
cousin, Umar Ozdomirov, a member of the renowned Vainakh Chechen folk
dancing troupe. "They took him at the blokpost near Grozny's central market
last July," she said. "We've appealed to the police, the military
procurator, the Red Cross, to everyone we can think of, but there is still
no information about him. We are beside ourselves with anxiety for him."
Colonel Shabanov, while admitting that "some violations" of the law may
occur at blokposti, says most of the 1,630 official complaints lodged by
Chechen families with military prosecutors are "fictitious." He alleges the
women protesters were paid rebel agents. "We have evidence that these cases
(of missing people) are mostly bandits who have died fighting our forces,
and their families later claim they were taken by the federals," he says.
The Russians are now planning to bring back tens of thousands of refugees
who fled Grozny over the past three years to the relative safety of
UN-supplied camps in neighboring Ingushetia. Ten "temporary settlement
centers" are being set up in Grozny for them, although the human rights
group Memorial has reported that only half are so far habitable. One, a
seemingly well-heated and adequately protected former kindergarten, houses
about 500 people removed from a refugee camp at Znamenskoye, in northern
Chechnya, last June. "It's possible to live here, but we would rather have
stayed in Znamenskoye, where it was safe, " says Nina Abzailova. "But they
began tearing down the tents, and everyone had to leave."
President Vladimir Putin has pledged that refugees will not be forced to
return. Russian officials here repeat those assurances, but there is also a
hard edge to their statements. "It's time to liquidate those rebel
rest-houses in Ingushetia," says Shabanov.
Savdat Kalimuliyeva, another resident at the former kindergarten in central
Grozny, fears for her three children. "Every night there is shooting and
bombing all around. We cannot sleep, we just huddle together in fear. I am
terrified for my 16-year old son. What if they take him?"
------
Reporters on the Job
THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...: A journalists' tour of Chechnya last week, which
was guided by the military, reminded reporter Fred Weir of the Soviet
Union. "The group was tightly controlled, prevented from meeting ordinary
Chechens, and at one point locked in our bus to block contact with women
protesting about disappeared relatives," Fred says.
In case any journalists tried to give their guides the slip, several
plainclothes agents tagged along, even attempting to tape conversations the
journalists had with people they were permitted to meet.
"One must accept the military's claim that some security precautions were
necessary," says Fred. "But many of these measures had the distinct effect
of undermining the main claim the Kremlin wanted to make by bringing us to
Grozny in the first place: that the war is over and life is returning to
normal in Chechnya."
*******
#9
Russian Official: Peace Corps Suspicious
December 15, 2002
By MARA D. BELLABY
MOSCOW (AP) - The head of Russia's security service suggested Sunday that
U.S. Peace Corps volunteers who were forced to leave the country earlier
this year had been spying, accusing them of trying to collect information
on government officials and on the country's politics and economy.
Peace Corps officials said in August that the Russian government had
refused to extend the visas of 30 volunteers already in the country and
planning to stay.
The government offered no explanation at the time, but Nikolai Patrushev,
head of the Federal Security Service, addressed the issue in a wide-ranging
interview. He did not directly accuse the volunteers of being spies but
said they were involved in suspicious activities.
``Some of them were engaged in collecting information about the
sociopolitical and economic situation in Russian regions, about government
employees and administrators and the course of elections,'' Patrushev was
quoted as saying in the interview with state-controlled television and
Russian news agencies.
Peace Corps officials in Moscow could not immediately be reached for comment.
Despite the end of the Cold War and the general warming of relations
between Russia and the West, the espionage trade remains alive and well
with Russia and the United States frequently trading accusations of spying.
After Russia refused to extend visas for the Peace Corps volunteers, U.S.
Secretary of State Colin Powell tried to intervene, but Russian officials
refused to back down.
Patrushev said that the Peace Corps still has about 200 volunteers working
in nearly 30 Russian regions.
The security service, known by its Russian acronym FSB, is the main
successor to the Soviet-era KGB.
Separately, Patrushev expressed concerns about Turkish extremist sects
operating in Russia and trying to gain information about the situation in
the North Caucasus, where Russian troops are engaged in the second war in a
decade with Chechen separatists. He said the alleged sect, Nurcular, set up
companies called Serhat and Eflyak to ``tackle a broad range of talks in
the interests of the intelligence services.''
``It conducted pan-Turkic and pan-Islamic brainwashing of Russian
teenagers, (and) carried out propaganda actions,'' the ITAR-Tass news
agency quoted Patrushev as saying.
The FSB blocked the activities of more than 50 of the alleged sect's
members in mainly Muslim regions of Russia in the last year, Patrushev said.
Patrushev said cooperation with Western security agencies had resulted in
the detention in June of Egyptian citizen Abdullah Abdel Hamid Abdel Basit
Mahmud, whom he called ``the emissary of Middle Eastern extremist
organizations in Russia,'' according to ITAR-Tass. He also said Russia
detained a member of the group Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a secretive organization
that aims to create an Islamic state in Central Asia, on charges of forming
an illegal armed group and extradited him to Uzbekistan in April.
He also revealed more details about previous accusations of spying
involving the United States, including an alleged attempt by Americans
using drugged cookies and drinks to recruit a Russian defense employee as
an agent in 2001.
The effort backfired and the Russian security service identified the
defense worker's contact at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow as Yunju Kensinger,
a third secretary in the embassy's consular department.
Patrushev said that Kensinger was expelled from the country and two Russian
citizens were arrested. U.S. officials have refused to comment on the
allegations.
``We prevented a heavy blow from being delivered to Russia's defense
capabilities and security,'' Patrushev was quoted as saying.
Patrushev also hailed the conviction of businessman Viktor Kalyadin, who
was found guilty this summer of providing military information to the
United States. Patrushev said Kalyadin was allegedly trying to collect
information about Russian defense priorities, Interfax said.
In a separate incident, an Azerbaijani officer assigned to maintain
contacts with the militaries of former Soviet states was apprehended with
documents that ``represented a state secret,'' Patrushev said. He
identified the officer as Maj. Gen. Rasulov. He has been barred from
entering the country for five years.
********
#10
MOSCOW STUDIES US NEW NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR COMBATING WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION
MOSCOW, DECEMBER 16, 2002 /RIA NOVOSTI/ -- Moscow is taking a close study
of the US' new National Strategy for Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction,
which has been recently made public in Washington.
The US security agencies have made a thorough analysis and outlined
long-term guidelines of countering the proliferation of mass destruction
weapons, which is a major threat of the modern day, the Russian foreign
ministry's information and press department told RIA Novosti Monday. This
menace is enhanced by an outburst of terrorist activities world wide, reads
the UN Strategy, something Moscow finds quite fair.
Russia and the US have made considerable progress in their
non-proliferation co-operation in recent years, mainly thanks to summit
meetings, which brought forth crucial bilateral agreements in that area,
recalled the foreign ministry. Moscow is hopeful the new National Strategy
of the US will foster further progress of bilateral and multilateral
contacts that would be based on international law and give heed to national
interests of the countries involved.
The Strategy advocates above all the strengthening of traditional
instruments of countering the non-proliferation and purchase of WMD by
international terrorists - diplomatic means, arms control, related
multilateral understandings, arms exports control - the fact that is going
to help step up Russia-US partnership in this area.
The ministry echoed the authors of the Strategy who call for strict
observance of basic international understandings, in the first instance the
Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the Chemical Weapons
and the Biological Weapons Conventions.
******
#11
Vremya Novostei
December 16, 2002
SATAN MISSILES TO REMAIN IN USE UNTIL 2016
The Strategic Missile Forces prepare to celebrate their 43rd anniversary
Author: Nikolai Poroskov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
THE STRATEGIC MISSILE FORCES, PAST AND PRESENT; FUTURE PROSPECTS AND
MAIN PROBLEMS DISCUSSED IN AN INTERVIEW WITH COLONEL GENERAL NIKOLAI
SOLOVTSOV, SMF COMMANDER.
Tomorrow the Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) mark their 43rd
anniversary. A decree of the Soviet Council of Ministers on the
creation of the SMF was issued on December 17, 1959. Last June, the
Space Forces were separated from the SMF. For the first time in its
history, the SMF became a branch of the Armed Forces instead of a
separate force. Colonel General Nikolai Solovtsov, SMF commander,
comments on the current activities and the future prospects of the
SMF.
Question: After the status of the SMF was lowered, there was talk
that the SMF is fading away and has lost its previous significance.
Have any changes occurred since then?
Nikolai Solovtsov: Everything has remained unchanged: four
missile armies, training sites, arsenals, higher education
institutions. One formation of heavy missiles was dismissed and 18
divisions have left as a result. There will be no drastic reduction of
the grouping. Indeed, the planned withdrawal of launchers, control
stations, which have extended their service lives and it is insecure
to prolong their operation, is underway. As the Security Council's
resolution approved by the president says, not a single launcher will
be removed from combat duty until the prolonged service life elapses.
The Chita Missiel army will be liquidated by the end of this
year. The next year, we shall remove a few regiments from combat duty
and dismiss the Perm Military Institute. In my belief, by 2015-2020
the SMF will only have two armies containing 10-12 divisions, equipped
both with stationary and mobile systems. I don't think there'll be any
combat railway systems, since their services lives are elapsing and
they were produced in Ukraine.
Question: In compliance with START II, the Satan MIRV heavy
missiles (according to NATO classification) should be removed from
combat duty and dismantled. Is this process underway?
Nikolai Solovtsov: A decision to remain them on combat duty
inside the grouping has been made of late. The calculations enable
retaining this kind of weapon in the long-term outlook. A missile
called Satan is unique; there is nothing like it anywhere else in the
world, and probably never will be. It will remain in use until 2016-
20. The state armaments program to 2006 includes some measures to
prolong utilization of this missile. By the by, the combat railway
missile systems have also been retained. In my opinion, the missile
grouping will undergo no considerable changes within the next decade.
Question: How has the SMF responded to the US withdrawal from the
ABM treaty? Supposedly, the single-warhead missiles have been replaced
with MIRV on Topol-M missiles?
Nikolai Solovtsov: This opportunity is being considered, but not
in connection to the ABM treaty. Some other decisions could be made as
well. However, we haven't made any drastic steps and it is not our
intention to make any.
Question: How is rearmament with Topol-M missiles progressing?
Nikolai Solovtsov: According to the rearmament program, some 6-10
missiles should be supplied to the SMF per year. In 2003, we will
deploy a new regiment in the Tatishchevo Division. The final decision
related to the further fate of the mobile complex, which is also armed
with this missile will be taken in 2006. The next year, the speed of
supplying these missiles will lower, due to heavy missiles and combat
railway systems left on combat duty, maintenance of which would
require a part of the spending.
Question: There's a feeling that the service lives of obsolete
systems are prolonged indefinitely. Is this correct?
Nikolai Solovtsov: There's a series of programs, on which the
primary service lives have been extended 100-150% - from 10 to 25-27
years; we are hoping to extend them to 30 years. The strength
characteristics of these missiles enable that; we also have new
techniques for determining the operable conditions of missile systems.
Finally, the launches provide a lot of information. An UR-100 missile,
which had been in use for 25 years, was launched from the Baikonur
space center recently!
Question: Clearly enough, Topol-M missiles will be the chief
prospect of the SMF troops. But there are some new developments,
aren't there?
Nikolai Solovtsov: Nowadays, we are raising the issue of
developing a new medium-class missile. The work on the Bulava project,
a missile for the navy, is going at full speed. The missile testing
has been a success. A missile for the SMF will also be created in
compliance with this program. The time of developing and adding the
new complex to the arsenals is a decade. We still have some time.
Russia won't happen to lose its missile forces.
Question: Terrorists are announcing their presence in the world
every now and then. Have there been any attempts at unsanctioned
penetration into facilities subordinate to your troops?
Nikolai Solovtsov: No, there haven't been any and I don't think
there ever will be, since we don't let it happen. We have technical
security resources, electrified fences and we are carrying out a range
of measures in this area.
(Translated by Andrei Ryabochkin)
********
#12
Yezhenedelnyi Zhurnal
No. 48
December 10, 2002
CONSCRIPTION SYNDROME
Military reforms stall because the top brass is addicted to conscription
Author: Alexander Golts
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
BY PRESERVING THE CONSCRIPTION SYSTEM, THE DEFENSE MINISTRY IS
PRESERVING THE SOVIET-ERA MILITARY ORGANIZATION OF SOCIETY. THE MAIN
AIM OF THIS SYSTEM IS TO HAVE MILLIONS OF RESERVE SOLDIERS AVAILABLE
FOR MOBILIZATION IF NECESSARY - WHICH SEEMS A RATHER FAR-FETCHED
SCENARIO THESE DAYS.
Following a Cabinet meeting on November 21 and the meeting of the
top command of the Armed Forces which ended on November 26, the
Defense Ministry was instructed to carry out experiments and continue
the development of the federal program for transition of the Armed
Forces from conscription to contract service. The only specific
obligation of the Defense Ministry is to transfer 92 units to a
contract basis by 2007 or 2011, if circumstances are favorable.
Time to mark an anniversary. Exactly a decade ago, on November
30, 1992, a Cabinet resolution instructed the Defense Ministry for the
first time to develop plans for moving the Russian Armed Forces to
contract service - you'll laugh at this - from 1993.
It has long been clear that the top brass is making great efforts
to delay military reforms - now they are producing a simulation of
reforms under pressure from the president. Some time ago, President
Putin seemed to understand the degree of deterioration in the Russian
Armed Forces, and it seemed he would not allow the generals to
sabotage his plans. However, the words of the Supreme Commander-in-
Chief at the recent meetings dispelled this illusion.
The past year has brought unprecedented evidence of the
degeneration of the Russian Armed Forces: soldiers deserting en masse,
and 20 people murdered by deserters. Military helicopters have crashed
almost every week; military supply depots burn every month. However,
Putin was very mild in speaking to the generals: "There have been many
disappointing failures and emergencies this year, but I want to say
that the public is growing more confident in the Armed Forces. I hope
that measures will be taken for strengthening discipline and improving
personnel work in the near future."
Real military reforms would inevitably lead to a conflict with
the top brass. But Putin does not have any other generals available,
and he is unwilling to wreck relations with the present ones a year
before an election.
Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has reported on the situation in
the Russian Armed Forces. Putin did not respond to the information
that 531 soldiers have died and 20,000 have been injured this year due
to various accidents and crimes - besides the casualties in Chechnya!
The Russian security structures have crossed a very important line:
they no longer try to conceal the terrible statistics. After the
public showed that it could tolerate the deaths of over 120 civilians
in the course of an anti-terrorist operation, who will be concerned
about the deaths of a dozen boys in uniform per week due to the
negligence of officers? The president didn't even make a show of
outrage about it. Moreover, speaking to students at the Ryazan
Paratroopers School a week later, the president confirmed that despite
all reforms, the conscription system will be retained indefinitely.
According to Putin, conscripts are necessary for "guarding weapon
storehouses and doing other heavy labor in the military - it is
impossible to replace everyone with contract personnel." This means
the president understands very well that soldiers are conscripted not
in order to defend their motherland, but in order to perform unskilled
jobs in the bloated military, which cannot exist without their slave
labor.
A MATTER OF PRINCIPLE
This is how numerous "experts" from the General Staff have
brushed off all kinds of "unqualified civilians" over the past decade:
"Why are you focusing on how military personnel are recruited? That
isn't the most important part of military reforms. It's far more
important to determine what is threatening national security and to
equip the Armed Forces with modern weapons, and to change the
structure of the Armed Forces, to improve the living conditions and
the social status of the military."
Over the past decade, the Defense Ministry has stubbornly sought
the enemy in the West - since its intention to preserve the Soviet
model of the Armed Forces can only be attributed to a need to oppose
the leading world powers. However, now the president has ordered
changes in the military doctrine and the national security concept, in
order to concentrate on opposing terrorism. Undoubtedly, the General
Staff will manage to prove that terrorism can only be fought with
millions of military personnel.
The General Staff has been enthusiastically busy with structural
changes for ten years, each of which was inevitably declared to be the
most important stage of the military reforms. Some of the changes were
necessary, while others reinforced the bureaucratic victory of one top
brass faction over another. However, they had nothing to do with the
situation in the Armed Forces. The present defense minister has many
more opportunities that his predecessors: under Putin defense spending
has steadily grown, and next year it will be 345 billion rubles, or
triple the defense spending in 1999.
Due to this, Sergei Ivanov managed to resume the development and
acquisition of new weapons, which is now presented as the most
important part of the reforms. To all appearances, this time the money
allocated for the military reforms will be spent entirely on vain
attempts to re-equip the Armed Forces. The 300 single samples of
weapons and hardware which Sergei Ivanov bought for the Armed Forces
represent a useless waste of money. Several dozen of the design
bureaus in the defense sector have designed new weapons in the form of
one or two samples. The Defense Ministry pays for their work without
being sure if it will be possible to make their production regular.
Moreover, very often design bureaus try to deceive the Defense
Ministry and present a modified version of some old hardware as a new
design. Hence, despite the rapid growth of defense spending, the might
of the Armed Forces is not increasing.
With the acquiescence of the president, the military is
preserving a model of the Armed Forces which cannot help being a black
hole that "swallows both people's lives and state funding". However,
the resources are rapidly running out, and very soon the Supreme
Commander-in-Chief will have to listen to those who say that the main
stage of the military reforms is changing the recruitment system.
TRANSITION FORMULA
Methods of transition to an all-professional military are well-
known: the United States went through the process 30 years ago, and
France completed it a year ago. It is well-known that professional
corporals and sergeants are the foundation of such a military, and
nothing can be done without preparing a sufficient number of
professional junior officers in advance. Sergeants, whose authority
should be based on both experience and military skill, are required to
enforce discipline in the barracks with an iron hand. In the present
Russian Armed Forces, decent officers have to do this work - to the
detriment of their own direct responsibilities and family lives. As a
rule, they have neither the will nor the inclination to do this, and
order in the barracks is enforced through brutal, primitive dominance
of older soldiers over younger soldiers.
Meanwhile, the General Staff has been amazingly stubborn in
ignoring all calls to create a professional sergeant corps, arguing
that a six-month course of training is enough for junior commanders.
This is no coincidence: as soon as professional sergeants are trained,
it will become obvious that military institutes are training not
professional officers but military craftsmen, who are only able to
feel competent in a military made up of conscripts and lacking real
professional sergeants. By preserving the conscription system, the
Defense Ministry is preserving the Soviet-era military organization of
society. The main aim of this system is to have millions of reserve
soldiers available for mobilization if necessary - which seems a
rather far-fetched scenario these days. Recently, Defense Minister
Sergei Ivanov proudly reported about the military exercises in the
Siberian military district, when 7,500 troops were mobilized and
transported 3,000 kilometers. However, he immediately admitted that
only a few units in the Armed Forces are able to fulfill their combat
duties in full. Imagine what the state of the reserves must be like.
However, if this fiction is accepted as the basis of military
planning, why bother to reform the Armed Forces at all? The Soviet
Armed Forces were the ideal example of a "mass army".
It is no coincidence that the Russian military command has chosen
this time to request the president to restore the red star to the
army's banners - it is the symbol of the military which they have so
stubbornly protected from all reforms. They seem to have won this
battle - paradoxically, it also seems to be the only battle they have
won in the past fifty years.
(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova)
*******
#13
Poll shows only four parties likely to make it into Duma in coming elections
MOSCOW. Dec 16 (Interfax) - The United Russia party and the Communist Party
have practically equal chances of making it into the Duma in the next
parliamentary elections, which are scheduled to take place in a year, a
poll of 1,500 Russians shows. The poll was conducted by the Public Opinion
Foundation.
Twenty-four percent of Russians surveyed said that if the Duma elections
were held this coming Sunday, they would vote for United Russia, and 22%
said they would vote for the Communist Party. Six percent said they would
vote for the Liberal Democratic Party and 5% for Yabloko. Other parties and
movement apparently would not be able to make it past the 5% barrier needed
to be elected to the Duma.
An estimated 6% of respondents said they would vote against all parties,
9% said they would not go to the polling stations, and another 18% said
they were undecided about their party preference.
******
#14
excerpt
TITLE: PRESS CONFERENCE WITH CPRF LEADER GENNADY ZYUGANOV
[RIA NOVOSTI, 12:00, DECEMBER 10, 2002]
SOURCE: FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE (http://www.fednews.ru/)
Moderator: Good morning. Let us start. December is
traditionally the time for reviewing the results of the outgoing
year. And an assessment of the year 2002 will be given today by the
Chairman of the People's Patriotic Union of Russia, Chairman of the
Communist Party of the Russian Federation, and leader of the CPRF
faction at the State Duma, Gennady Zyuganov.
Zyuganov: Good day. I regularly speak in this hall, but it is
first time I see it refurbished in this way. So, my congratulations
to the designers who have provided very comfortable conditions for
everyone. The only thing that makes me uncomfortable that I am
sitting above the journalists. So, you will forgive me for that. We
are a proletarian party and we prefer justice and equality.
I think we are about to see out one of the most complicated
and contradictory years in the history of the Russian state. We
have submitted proposals on adjustments to the economic course
which was formulated in the report of the Khabarovsk Territory
governor and it was discussed at the first meeting of the State
Council. We thought that this course would be implemented this year
because at the time it had the approval of all the levels of the
executive and legislative branches. But the policy of
Gref-Kudrin-Kasyanov prevailed. As a result tomorrow a budget will
be approved and it is just 72 billion dollars, that's 10 times less
than the budget of the Russian Federation ten years ago.
This budget fails to address any problems -- economic, social
or political. We proposed to hold a referendum on the basic issues
that could change the way the budget policy is determined. The
question of the land rent and the use of the resources that the
country has and which were developed and defended by generations of
Russians -- it would permit to increase the budget by almost 500
billion, but that version, too, was turned down.
We have proposed to go to the people to ask their opinion and
consider the issue about fair payment for housing and utilities
services and payment for electricity. Given the average incomes
they cannot exceed 10 percent of the aggregate household income.
But this too was turned down. The authorities demonstrated this
year that they can re-write constitutional laws within a week
without agreeing any of the provisions with the subjects of the
Federation.
We proposed that the relatively minor privileges enjoyed by
the army and the police and the law enforcement system as a whole,
the pensions, the rural professionals, doctors, educational workers
should be retained. But the government prevailed and the docile
majority at the Duma rubberstamped this too.
We proposed that agricultural land should not be allowed for
sale, but the law that was pushed through the Duma has already
generated conflicts in the fields and the situation will take a
dramatic turn for the worse from next year when the law is
implemented on a wide scale. We have just reviewed the performance
of different sectors of the economy in the Russian Federation in
the outgoing year.
Our people are hard-working and in some sectors the results
are not bad. I was just attending hearings at the Duma were leading
agrarians had a meeting and reviewed the results of the year. They
said with one voice that we are bankrupt. Although the crop is not
bad, the average price offered for a ton of grain was 800-1,000
rubles, while it cost was 1,200 in Russia, but middlemen bought it
up on the cheap leaving nothing to the farmers. Even the richest
farms barely reached the break even point. If one subtracts the
cost of fertilizer and harvesting, practically none of them gained
profits.
In my native Oryol region they had grown a bumper crop and
they are doing well in livestock breeding, they now sell a kilogram
of meat at 35-40 rubles, this is not enough to cover even the
elementary costs. Fishermen brought in good catches of fish but the
housewives did not get any wages from them.
The same is true of science. Scientists came up with some
interesting programs but they have not been implemented.
So, I assess the course pursued by Putin and Kasyanov in the
outgoing year as the continuation of the old liberal course plus a
strengthened vertical police power structure and further violence
with regard to society. This is a dead end road.
In terms of geopolitics, Russia has become forced to the wall.
NATO is at our gate, in fact it is already in our backyards. NATO
is sitting in Central Asia developing military bases built by the
Soviet Union. In Tbilisi its colonels supervise operations. Naval
vessels and aircraft are to arrive soon to the Baltics where Peter
I built ports, where the borders were defended by Suvorov and
Zhukov. This worsens the situation.
We think that the absolute majority of citizens understand
that the current policy has no future. They understand that Putin
is truly an heir to Yeltsin. They feel that the Kasyanov government
gives no thought to domestic producers whatever their form of
ownership may be. They mistrust this course and they are ready to
act more vigorously to defend their rights.
I recently looked at the report on protest actions and
strikes. Usually, a day's actions occupied 3-4 pages, the latest
report runs to 15 pages from almost 50 regions of the Russian
Federation.
We offer a different course and a different program, a
different policy beginning from the development of the country to
the budget area and this is the program that we will take to our
constituencies. Our faction has decided to report in each region
about its work during the year. Starting from December 15 we will
be doing this work in a planned manner in all the regions.
The first report will be on December 19-22 on the legendary
land of Stalingrad. This year sees the 60th anniversary of the
Battle of Stalingrad. The whole nation will mark that date on
February 2. It is incumbent upon us to display the same fortitude
as that by the soldiers in Stalingrad at this critical moment. Our
deputies will visit at least 50 leading regions in the country
which are home of about 80 percent of the population. And we
consider it to be very important to expose the actual policy and to
lay out our programs and suggestions.
In January we will finish preparing the program on how to
rescue the country out of the crisis. It will cover all key
industries, take into account the peculiarities of regions, and
formulate proposals.
Our bloc and the broad-based patriotic association will give
citizens guarantees that a totally new policy will be carried out.
We believe that patriotic forces will have an opportunity in the
new Duma to get at least controlling interest to make sure that the
policy that has been pursued over the last 10 years is no longer
implemented on Russian soil.
We are confident that if we work energetically for one year,
we may garner broad public support for the elections. We have
conducted sociologically polls and studied various sections of the
population. The bogus ratings that show public trust for one person
and that are regularly published have nothing in common with the
real state of affairs.
When we met with business people and workers in Putin's home
town, one in two expressed serious doubts about the correctness of
the current policy. In force ministries, especially after a recent
scandal in the Defense Ministry when the Defense Minister had to
publicly read out secret sections of a report for the sake of
Putin's public rating, which is punishable by law, the level of
support here does not exceed 18 percent.
I have recently held a series of meetings with students and
young people. They showed deep understanding of the situation and
the fact that the current policy offers them no opportunity. The
same kind of sentiment exists among small and medium-sized
businesses. In assessing the economic situation, many said things
are moving toward a new default. If the Americans seize oil fields
in Iraq, and it seems they are prepared to go further, lay their
hands on Saudi oil too, they will ruin the Russian economy in a
matter of weeks or months.
By the way, there is actually nothing much to ruin. If we take
Russia's GDP, some get bloated with self-importance, but Africa is
also big but no one in the world really reckons with it. The entire
GDP in Russia after Yeltsin is about as big as that in Holland.
We are determined that we need a new policy, a new team, a new
course and a government that will serve national interests. The
current government is a government of dyed-in-wool liberals like
Nemtsov, Khakamada. It reflects the interests of five, or seven
maximum, percent of citizens. So, this government did not and does
not act in the social interests of voters. We believe this
government must resign. We are ready to form a government of
national interests and we will do everything we can to make sure
that forces that love Russia, understand it and care about its
history, culture and best traditions come to power next year.
********
#15
Boston Globe
December 15, 2002
This look at the city is hardly historic
By Tom Haines, Globe Staff
ST. PETERSBURG - In the frosted forest of Krestovskiy Island, stretched
between the city center and the Gulf of Finland, brake lights of BMWs,
Volgas, and Zhigulis shone like beacons.
Up a long driveway, then a flight of wide, stone stairs, pumping music and
roving spotlights on a November night welcomed a new winter palace, a
''window on the west'' circa 2002, to St. Petersburg. Inside one room, a
urinal and sink were bolted shoulder height on a paint-splattered wall. A
clothed woman sat in a bathtub, on the floor, lighting sparklers. Guests
stopped at a long table to gulp strawberries and champagne.
In another room, Russian models petted a live bull, which ducked its head
to munch hay. Nearby, visitors swung on rope swings and took pulls of
tobacco smoke from water pipes. Outside, fireworks christened the
soon-to-open ''Fifth Element,'' a luxury complex with apartments for those
rich on a Russian scale. Price: $200,000 US.
Dmitry Golinko-Wolfson, a 33-year-old cultural critic and poet, said the
scene reminded him of something from Berlin. Was this, then, what Peter the
Great had in mind, 300 years ago, when he dreamed of a Russian city modeled
on Europe? ''Well, maybe this is some kind of distortion,'' Golinko-Wolfson
said.
Later, amid pods of young models, somehow grouped in threes,
Golinko-Wolfson was asked if the 300th birthday, drawing so much attention
from politicians and publicists, matters to young people.
''No,'' he said.
And he was right. As trays of cognac and vodka martinis floated past, as
guests spoke Russian, German, French, and English, the Fifth Element stood
for St. Petersburg's now, a kind of monument to modernity.
But St. Petersburg's 300th birthday does matter, at least in another modern
sense.
For the past several years, government officials have been plotting how to
spend hundreds of millions of public dollars to polish monuments and
improve infrastructure - roads, bridges, hospitals - to celebrate a city
born from an idea, a concept. Peter the Great, ruler of the Russian empire,
wanted this city, built on swamp land, to link Russia with Europe and all
its cultural and military strength.
Throughout 2003, but especially during eight days in May, St. Petersburg
will host art exhibits and theater performances, parades and presentations,
hoping that attention and tourism will carry it well into its fourth century.
''Every day, everywhere, in all palaces, in all theaters, in all libraries,
everywhere, will be something,'' said Natalia Batozhok, who, as chairwoman
of St. Petersburg's ''300'' committee, helps choose which projects get a
piece of the celebration pie.
Inside Russia, this is a big deal for a city that has seen so much change.
(Its name, alone, has been changed from St. Petersburg, to Petrograd, then
Leningrad and, after the breakup of the Soviet Union, back to St.
Petersburg). In 1918, the city, which residents simply call ''Piter,'' lost
its official place as capital of Russia. In recent decades, it has also
lost hold on its informal rank as center of Russian culture.
At a dinner party after the opening of a video installation by a Korean
artist at the Marble Palace, Simeon Mikhailovsky talked of this slide. The
hot galleries, the hot restaurants, the hot culture, all of that is in
Moscow, he said. Mikhailovsky, vice rector of the Academy of Fine Arts,
located on the banks of the Neva and home to more than 2,000 students, said
most young artists have to become Muscovites if they want a chance.
St. Petersburg, he said, does still have a trump card. He spoke in
intentionally inflated prose about the allure of a piazza in Venice,
another monumental city, often compared to St. Petersburg.
''St. Petersburg,'' Mikhailovsky said, ''is a great place to ponder
eternity.''
Eternity, or at least the illusion of it, motivates foreign countries to
donate monuments and sponsor events for this 300th birthday. And it is why
foreign tourists continue to put the city, with its palaces and cathedrals
and museums and monuments, on itineraries usually reserved for the
predictable order of Scandinavia, or other parts of Western Europe.
Next year, while the focus is on the weeklong May festivities, outsiders
would do better to wait. May will be for connected officials and
dignitaries. Hotels are already blocked out, being held for guests of
President Vladimir Putin, a native of St. Petersburg.
Come, instead, during the white nights of June, or later in summer. Then,
crowds will have thinned a bit, but the majesty of the place will sparkle:
rebricked sidewalks, newly paved streets, polished cathedral columns. That,
at least, is the plan.
All of it will make a new face for old draws. The Hermitage, one of the
largest, most stunning museums in the world, offers works from Michelangelo
to Picasso. An old apartment, now a museum, collects tokens of the world of
Feodor Dostoyevsky, who was defined by, and helped define, St. Petersburg's
identity of light and dark. At the Mariinsky Theatre, world-class casts
perform ballets composed by Stravinsky, choreographed by Ballanchine. A
historic graveyard, set in the shadow of a Soviet-era hotel, guards the
graves of Tchaikovsky and Dostoyevsky.
And, despite Moscow, modern St. Petersburg artists struggle to create an
identity for the future. Some make it to galleries set on bustling Nevsky
Prospekt, such as that of Oleg Kulik, the controversial artist who traveled
the world acting like a dog.
Farther from the bright lights, on a recent Sunday night, Natalia
Pershina-Yakimanskaya welcomed a visitor to her funky loft and played a
video she created with artist Olga Yegorova.
On the screen, more than a dozen young navy cadets, in uniform, march
through central St. Petersburg, small white dresses hoisted arms-length in
front of them. They pass along a canal, cross in front of the Hermitage
Museum. The video, which she calls ''The Triumph of Fragility,'' echoes the
cadets' footfalls. With each scene, the video moves from absurdity into
profundity.
It is time, Perhina-Yakimanskaya said afterward, to look inward. She hopes
her video, already shown throughout northern Europe, will benefit from the
300th festivities by finding a gallery home in St. Petersburg.
In the meantime, she pondered a side benefit of convincing the cadets,
fresh-faced, serious young men, that they should walk through the daylight
of St. Petersburg in the wake of white dresses.
''By the end,'' she said, ''we had sensitive cadets.''
*******
#16
Boston Globe
December 15, 2002
Latvia pushes Russian minority to margin
Citizenship law is latest to polarize ex-Soviet satellite
By Bruce I. Konviser, Globe Correspondent
RIGA, Latvia - Lidija Novikova wants to become a Latvian citizen. But even
though she has lived her entire life here, that goal remains elusive.
As a 54-year-old ethnic Russian, she is denied automatic citizenship
because she was born after the Soviet Union annexed Latvia in 1940. And she
has neither the money nor the necessary family documents needed to cut
through the mass of red tape.
''I'm very interested in getting citizenship,'' she said. ''It would help
my children get citizenship. And citizenship would eventually give them
better job opportunities.''
Novikova is among the 350,000 ethnic Russians in Latvia who effectively
remain stateless, stuck in limbo amid a series of controversial laws passed
since the country gained independence in 1991. Although some of the laws
have been softened, their effect has been to increasingly polarize this
Baltic nation between majority ethnic Latvians and the sizable - largely
disenfranchised - predominantly Russian minority.
The lingering divisions are casting an unwanted spotlight on this country
of 2.3 million just as its international profile is rising. Latvia got the
call last month to join NATO, and on Friday it was among 10 countries
invited to become part of the European Union in 2004.
An education law has sparked the latest controversy. It requires
Russian-language high schools to begin teaching a broad range of subjects
in Latvian by September 2004. The citizenship law requires all non-ethnic
Latvians to apply for citizenship - even if they were born and raised here.
And a language law requires all public sector business - except for
emergency service - to be conducted in Latvian.
Many ethnic Latvians consider the citizenship question closed - even though
22 percent of the country's residents are denied the most fundamental
entitlement of a democracy, the right to vote.
Artis Pabriks, a member of the right-of-center People's Party, said: ''The
citizenship issue is solved. Come to the office and we'll help you. The
door is open, but step inside yourself.''
Yet for people like Novikova, becoming a citizen is not as easy as walking
into the proper government office.
Twice in the past year, she was mailed information about obtaining
citizenship as part of a new government initiative, but the effort has not
helped. If she had been born before 1941 and had her children after 1991,
they would automatically have received citizenship. But she was born too
late, while her children, ages 14 and 12, were born too early.
Then there's the money. Under Western pressure, the government cut the
application fee by a third - down to the equivalent of $33 - but that is
still more than Novikova's monthly rent. In addition, the government
requires applicants to provide documented family histories; Novikova can't
do that.
''I don't know my parents,'' she said. ''I was an orphan, and was raised in
a state-run orphanage.''
Her unemployment insurance has run out and she's been left to forage for
food scraps in the garbage heaps of Riga's otherwise picturesque Old Town.
The plight of the Russian minority remains a more vexing one for Latvia
than for its Baltic neighbors. Lithuania had relatively few ethnic
Russians, so it gave citizenship to permanent residents after the Soviet
Union fell. Estonia, which has a sizable Russian minority, opened the door
to noncitizens earlier.
By any measure, the 50 years of Soviet occupation here were cruel. More
than 40,000 Latvians were either executed or banished to Siberia - never to
be heard from again. With large swaths of the country's indigenous
population decimated, Russians were forcibly relocated to Latvia - and
Russian became the official language.
That bloody past has made Latvians skittish that ethnic Russians - given
the chance - would seek to realign the country with Russia.
''If we gave everyone citizenship we would be betraying our independence,''
Pabriks said. ''If we start giving away citizenship as a present, democracy
will lose. Many in the Russian minority say this country is a mistake.''
Nils Muiznieks, recently appointed to the new post of minister of
integration, acknowledges that the country remains polarized. Latvia will
be integrated when politicians ''can get Russian votes without losing
Latvian votes,'' he said.
Boris Tsilovich, an outspoken member of Parliament for the party called For
Human Rights in a United Latvia, bristles over the obstacles to citizenship
and the law requiring everyone to conduct their public sector business -
such as questioning a utility bill - in a language many Russians speak poorly.
But for now the education law is his main concern. Russians studying in
their non-native tongue will struggle in school and be at a competitive
disadvantage after graduation, Tsilovich insists.
Nonprofit groups and Western organizations have also criticized the
education plan. They also say the 2004 deadline is too soon - that too many
students, as well as Russian teachers, lack the necessary language skills
for a Latvian language curriculum.
As for Novikova, besides wanting to find a job, she wants the Latvian
politicians to address the needs of the country's have-nots. ''That would
give us hope,'' she said. ''We can manage if we have some hope.''
*******
#17
THE BOTTOM LINE: Russian Carmakers Step On M&A Pedal
December 16, 2002
By ANNA IVANOVA-GALITSINA
OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
MOSCOW -- Russians are becoming discriminating car buyers - that's bad news
for the country's car makers but good news for western producers.
As incomes rise, Russians are comfortable forking over extra cash for more
reliable western models. And big foreign carmakers are only too happy to
oblige. They are producing more cars for the Russia market, which is
driving domestic producers to eye mergers with each other or ventures with
western firms.
"A way to compete with foreign producers is to be in a partnership with one
of them," said Vadim Shvetsov, general director of Severstal-Avto (R.SEV),
the holding company for car and truck maker OAO UAZ (R.UAZ).
The government is helping drive the trend. In October, it cut taxes on
imported car parts to encourage foreign companies to set up assembly plants
in Russia and boost the number of western models in Russian show rooms.
A joint venture between General Motors Corp. (GM) and Russia's largest
carmaker OAO Avtovaz (R.AVZ) started to roll cars off the assembly line in
September and expects to make 30,000 cars next year.
"The joint venture with GM is very important for Avtovaz - it means close
ties with the world's largest car producer and it means new technology,
western-style production and possibilities of other joint projects if this
one goes well," said Vladimir Derbenyov, a spokesman for GM-Avtovaz.
What's at stake is a piece of a healthy market. New car sales in Russia are
expected to rise 9% this year and between 5% and 8% in 2003 and 2004. By
comparison, sales in Western Europe are forecast to fall 4% this year and
decline 1.5% next year, according to a Marketing Systems Eurocar study.
Russian cars still dominate the market, accounting for about 85% of sales,
but that edge is in jeopardy. Car buyers are fed up with unreliable Russian
cars like the Lada and Volga. As the opening of the Russian economy that
has given rise to consumer choices in banking rolls into the car market,
more Russians are driving off with models like Fabia from Volkswagen's
Czech unit Skoda (R.SKA) and the Ford Focus, hatch-backs that sell for
around $10,000.
There's also more money to spend. Incomes in Russia grew 4% this year, says
Alexei Moiseev at Renaissance Capital. On top of that, car financing, an
option available to Russians since the autumn, is making it easier to buy.
About 40% of new car sales could be bought with credit in the next few years.
At the same time, the price difference between foreign and domestic models
is shrinking. Foreign models that cost $14,000 last year list for about
$10,000 now. And Renault (F.RNA) said it plans to sell cars starting at
$7,000, which is what most Russian models cost.
Tax Break A Boon
The government has a lot to do with the lower prices. In October it cut
duties on imported car parts to entice foreign automakers to build and
operate assembly plants in Russia and lower the price of foreign models on
the market.
It's a strategy that worked. Renault restarted an assembly plant in Moscow
after a two-year hiatus and will decide in January whether to build a
factory to produce vehicles with Russian parts. Ford Motor Co. (F) raised
production targets at its St. Petersburg plant that opened in June.
Volkswagen A.G. (G.VOM), meanwhile, is in talks with the Moscow regional
government about the location of a new factory.
The government's objective is simple: support auto sector jobs. The sector
employs 1 million people, and many plants are the big employers in their
towns, making the effect of any job losses all the more painful.
"The government doesn't care who owns the factory. It is important for the
government that local car production provides jobs for Russians, pays taxes
locally and buys some Russian-made parts - such as windows or car-seats,"
Andrei Koterev, an editor at Auto Review magazines said.
The government is also using the tax break to modernize its decrepit auto
industry by enticing foreign automakers to invest and set up shop here.
GM invested $388 million in the venture with Avtovaz. Production started at
a plant in Togliatti in Southern Russia , and the companies expect to make
up to 75,000 cars in 2005. GM is also mulling producing an Opel Astra model
in this joint venture. It would be a less expensive version sold only in
Russia . It would cost some $9,000 compared with $16,000 in Europe. The
majority of parts will be locally produced.
Ford began production in June at its $150 million factory in St.
Petersburg. It plans to manufacture 2,800 cars by year-end. Its capacity is
25,000 cars a year.
There's already a glut of unsold Russian cars, which has led Russia's
largest car makers Avtovaz, OAO UAZ and OAO GAZ (R.GZR) to cut output.
Avtovaz cut production 41% in November to 33,291 cars from October. It has
about 90,000 cars stockpiled. It also cut prices by 2.5%.
The car industry here has been buffeted by a series of blows, including
rising electricity and railway tariffs, high steel prices and a 20% cut in
exports to Ukraine - the biggest importer of Russian cars. Earlier this
year the Ukraine introduced import duties and last week said it will enact
a quota that cuts Russian car imports by 60% to 15,777 next year.
Kazakhstan, another big export market, is also mulling import duties on
Russian cars for 2003.
The results of Russian car makers are beginning to show some wear. In
November, UAZ's revenue fell 33% from October to RUB600 million.
Observers say more companies will have to form ventures with western car
makers to sell new models to Russians.
"I would chose any foreign car over a Lada anytime, if I have the money.
The quality of steel, of assembly is the reason, with a Lada you never know
whether it will start in winter and it is very doughty - the list is
endless," said Slava Revin, a professional driver and mechanic of 23 years.
******
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