#6588
#5 - JRL 6588
Izvestia
No. 221
December 2002
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
WILL TERRORISTS USE NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL?
Will Chechen terrorists use nuclear blackmail? Yuri Vishnevsky, head
of the Federal Nuclear and Radiation Safety Inspectorate, has recently said that
several "leaks" of nuclear materials from nuclear power stations
located in the former Soviet territory had been registered in the past ten
years. Can terrorists get hold of these materials? Is a nuclear war possible?
Does Kim Chong Il have a "super-bomb"? And what is a nuclear
"scalpel"? Viktor MIKHAILOV, former Minister of Atomic Energy and
current director of the Institute of Strategic Stability, talks about these and
other issues with Izvestia analyst Alexander KHOKHLOV.
Question: Shamil Basayev is threatening Russia with nuclear terrorism. Should we be frightened?
Answer: If Chechen terrorists attempt to seize a nuclear power station or spread radioactive materials to pollute the air and land, it will amount to proclaiming a nuclear war on Russia. The reply will be ruthless for Chechens.
Question: How well are the Russian nuclear facilities guarded?
Answer: I can assure you that they are guarded very well, and not only in the Ministry of Atomic Energy but also in the Defence Ministry. Everything related to nuclear plants and weapons is guarded extremely reliably.
Question: But, hypothetically speaking, there is a "hole" in any "fence."
Answer: Hypothetically speaking, anything is possible. But the terrorists must know that the whole of their people will be held responsible for their actions. If Chechens resort to nuclear blackmail, there will be no Chechnya to fight for.
Question: Yuri Vishnevsky has recently said that several "leaks" of nuclear materials had been registered in the past ten years. Could terrorists get hold of them?
Answer: Yes.
Question: How?
Answer: They could buy U-235 or natural U-238 at civilian nuclear engineering facilities, nuclear power plants or fuel processing facilities. It was there that the leaks he mentioned had happened.
Question: Can terrorists use these materials to produce a nuclear bomb?
Answer: The production of nuclear weapons entails high technologies, laboratories and unique equipment. They cannot be jury-rigged.
Question: Can the stolen nuclear materials be used to seriously pollute the soil?
Answer: Pollute the soil by "peaceful atom"? Absolutely not.
If uranium ore or low-enriched fuel for nuclear power plants are strewn over a large territory, this will raise background radiation only insignificantly. Yes, this may call for soil recuperation, but terrorists would not attain the desired result, meaning mass deaths and panic.
On the Nuclear Weapons of North Korea, Iraq and Iran
Question: The world changed dramatically in the past 15 years. Do you think it is still facing the threat of a nuclear war?
Answer: War, including a nuclear one, remains an instrument of global politics. All member states of the nuclear club are working to create new weapons and several non-members are doing the same. Possession of nuclear weapons remains the only guarantor of national independence for any state.
Question: India and Pakistan have joined the club. Who is next?
Answer: Nobody, in the next few years. But the research and industrial capabilities of countries are growing at a fast pace. Iran may have a chance. By straining the national economy to the point of exertion, it may create nuclear weapons in 15-20 years.
Question: Does Israel have nuclear weapons?
Answer: The country's leaders have made contradictory statements on this issue. Personally, I think that Israel does not have nuclear weapons. They are too expensive for it.
Question: And what about North Korea?
Answer: It probably wants to have a nuclear shield but it has no opportunities for getting it. By the way, Saddam Hussein does not and cannot have nuclear weapons, as Iraq does not possess the sufficient research potential or funds for this.
Nuclear "Scalpel," Weapon of the Future
Question: Many experts believe that nuclear weapons are breathing their last and that conventional precision weapons will replace them as the guarantor of peace. Do you agree?
Answer: No. Those who say this want to fulfil Mikhail Gorbachev's pledge about Russia's unilateral nuclear disarmament.
He said in 1986 that our nuclear weapons would be liquidated by 2000. He probably reasoned that if Norway and Sweden can live without nuclear weapons, then we also can.
Question: Can't we?
Answer: Russia is so rich that if it becomes defenceless even for a moment, there will immediately appear those who will want to bite off a piece of the Russian pie. I can tell you without any "departmental interest" or any bias that today nuclear weapons alone are our protection. Our people can elect any government, remaining independent, because nobody will think of attacking Russia. It is invited to G7 and G8 only because Russia is still a great nuclear power.
Precision weapons are not the solution. They cannot stand up against the fourth-generation nuclear weapons.
Question: What weapons do you mean?
Answer: Scientists are working on a nuclear "scalpel," which will "cut out" very small objects. A small-yield charge will be placed in a super-strong body that will bore 30-40 metres into rock and destroy a hardened facility, such as the command station or nuclear storage. The "scalpel" will be used in pinpoint strikes to liquidate facilities located above or near the epicentre of an underground nuclear explosion. It will be a mini-earthquake without environmental pollution.
Question: When will we get this "scalpel"?
Answer: The solution of this scientifically and technically very complicated task will take at least ten but no more than 20 years. No physical laws preclude its creation, which means that it will be created sooner or later.
Question: You said this costs very much. Where will we take the money for research and production?
Answer: The Russian nuclear scientists do not ask the state for money. They are earning it for the state. Nuclear power engineering and conversion programmes of our federal research centres and enterprises are profitable and we are making a substantial contribution to the state budget.
Question: Does the USA have these fourth-generation nuclear weapons?
Answer: Not yet, but American scientists are successfully working on them.
Question: Aren't we behind them so far?
Answer: It is they who are a whole decade behind us in certain fields. Britain, France and China are also behind us. We have grown used to complaining that everything is bad in Russia.
But we have great science and reliable weapons that will protect our independence even in the darkest of times. We will do what we want yet.
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