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#8 - JRL 6536
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
November 4, 2002
MOSCOW IN SEARCH OF A NEW SOLUTION TO THE CHECHEN
PROBLEM
Moscow is searching for a solution that would not set it at loggerheads with
Europe and would strengthen its partnership with the USA.
By Yevgeny VERLIN
The situation around Chechnya has acquired a specific international meaning now. Europe and the USA are advocating a political settlement of the problem. Both would like to find "moderate" forces among Chechen fighters with whom Russia would be able to negotiate. Europeans have already found these "moderates," while the Americans would like to conduct the search jointly with Moscow.
However, Vladimir Putin has not yet said anything publicly about the possibility of negotiating with the other side. This is logical, as it is difficult for him to speak about a political settlement after the recent Nord-Ost hostage standoff. So far, Putin's stand has not changed. He insists that a political settlement is possible only by the Moscow scenario, which entails the disarmament of the bandit groups. Since the bandits refuse to surrender arms and are staging terrorist acts, the algorithm of the federal actions is based on the predominant use of force.
The policy of pinpoint strikes is being complemented with the speedy elaboration of a new wording of the national security concept, which will stipulate the use of armed forces in the fight against terrorism. Putin's phrase to the effect that "we are paying a high price for the weakness of the state and inconsistent actions" is interpreted by many to mean that we should have finished off Chechen bandits back in the mid-1990s and in this way protect the country from terrorist acts.
That situation of seeming consensus was exploded by the opinions of several political heavyweights, who surely do not stand in opposition to the regime. They suggested different ways of a peaceful settlement - on the sole but strict condition that the republic should remain part of Russia.
Arkady Volsky, head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, said on November 1 that negotiations is the only way to settling the Chechen problem. Consequently, Russia should begin by proclaiming truce with Chechnya, without which "no negotiations are possible." He believes that Russia should begin by negotiating with the clan and district elders and other respected Chechens who live in Russia.
Yevgeny Primakov does not exclude the possibility of negotiations "with at least some" field commanders, without which "the policy of transferring executive power to the Chechen side through local self-governments and security agencies will not succeed."
Yuri Luzhkov believes that we should "cultivate the Third estate" in Chechnya, "which would largely create the social core. Only after that should we determine the position of Chechnya and discuss its future status."
In short, an influential part of the Russian establishment advocates dialogue with the anti-Russian opposition in Chechnya. They believe that this opposition consists not only of such ruthless criminals as Barayev and Basayev.
Indicative in this situation was the statement made by Viktor Kazantsev, the president's plenipotentiary representative in the Southern Federal District. He spoke about the possibility of establishing contacts with "other Chechen representatives (with the exception of Maskhadov)" and said that the Russian leadership was "elaborating measures to resolve the Chechen problem."
The most interesting thing is that influential Russian figures admit the possibility of international mediation in the Chechen settlement. Arkady Volsky spoke about the involvement of the OSCE in negotiations, but added that "negotiations with international mediation should begin with the signing of an agreement with the other side under which Chechnya will remain part of the Russian Federation."
According to Volsky, other agreements should be signed simultaneously on the disarmament of the illegal armed formations and restoration of the Chechen Republic.
The appearance of such views shows that the Russian establishment is intensively searching for the answer to the eternal question: What is to be done? Nobody wants to lose face while formulating possible answers to this question, yet Moscow simply has to react to the situation and the Western attitude to it. It would be silly to quarrel with the EU or refuse to try to elaborate a common attitude to the solution of the Chechen problem. Besides, Russia's hopes that Washington's growing understanding of its stand would develop into full and unconditional solidarity may not come to fruition.
Moscow may decide to invite not the OSCE but some other mediator; it may choose the CIS. It should be noted in this connection that during the October 31 session of the Russian Security Council Vladimir Putin unexpectedly suggested "spotlighting cooperation with the CIS countries in the area of security and struggle against international terrorism."
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