#6534
#6
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
November 4, 2002
CONTACTS WITH TERRORISTS ARE IMPOSSIBLE
BLITZ INTERVIEWS WITH EXPERTS AND POLITICAL SCIENTISTS.
Author: Not indicated
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
EXPERTS SAY CHANCES FOR NEGOTIATIONS WITH CHECHEN RESISTANCE CRUSHED AND PUTIN'S POSITION AND DOMINATING ROLE IN RUSSIAN POLITICAL ACTIVITIES FURTHER STRENGTHENED
DO YOU THINK THAT THE TERRORIST ACT IN MOSCOW DID AWAY WITH CHANCES OF OFFICIAL NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE KREMLIN AND CHECHEN SEPARATISTS? HAVE THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS REINFORCED OR WEAKENED PRESIDENT PUTIN'S POSITION?
Gleb Pavlovsky, Effective Politics Foundation: Negotiations with Aslan Maskhadov are impossible now that he has all but associated himself with the gang of Barayev and Abu Bakar. In the classic sense, this gang is a part of the international terrorist network. As far as Russian diplomacy is concerned, these negotiations are impossible politically and even diplomatically. Maskhadov's official representative Yandarbiyev once again reiterated the connection between Maskhadov and Barayev's detachment, calling the latter a unit of the so-called Chechen Armed Forces. He even supported execution of non-combatants by terrorists. That closes the issue. It goes without saying that contacts and negotiations are needed for pacification of the situation in Chechnya and broadening of the political process. All of that will be more or less like it is nowadays, i.e. on the basis of the Russian Constitution or within the framework of negotiations with field commanders on the battlefield.
As for Putin's position, I think it has been fortified, and that is nice. It is not nice at all that weakness of civilian institutions has revealed itself in so horrible a form. It is clear after all that the terrorist act in Moscow was planned on the assumption that the media would be broadly involved, highlighting everything, including terrorists' demands.
Andrei Fedorov, Political Surveys and Consulting Foundation: The road to negotiations in the old format is closed now. I mean the negotiations between the federal center and Maskhadov. On the other hand, negotiations are necessary and their formula will be much more complicated now. I do not even rule out the possibility that we will have to use what is known as the Afghani variant: an all-Chechen conference and negotiations with the delegation formed by the conference.
As for the president of Russia, his position has been fortified because he has displayed strength and determination, you know. At the same time, his political prospects have narrowed down, since the terrorist act in Moscow displays weakness of the regime as such. It showed us all that absolutely everything depends on the president in Russia. When the president chooses to remain silent, all other structures become confused. They do not know what to do.
Andrei Piontkovsky, Strategic Surveys Center: Vladimir Putin has reinforced his image as a strong ruler. This image of a strong president gives him freedom, including freedom in the matter of Chechnya. I mean that if he decides to initiate negotiations and call a truce tomorrow, the majority of the population will support it.
It is important here to recall Putin's words of two years ago when he said, addressing the Federal Assembly, that the future status of Chechnya did not really count, that what really counted was that Chechnya should not pose a threat to the Russian Federation. As I see it, this is a perfect formula of a political settlement. When he suggested it, he found himself under the attack of the hawks in Russia, and Putin's press secretary was forced to say that the president had been misunderstood. This time, Putin has everything to fulfill this formula.
Almost every politician and political scientist in Russia already said that the road to negotiations is closed now. On the other hand, opinion polls show that the number of Russians advocating negotiations did not go down that significantly, from 57% to 45%, despite all the hysterics. This can be traced back to how wise the population is, compared to the elite.
Igor Bunin, Political Technologies Center: Respect for Putin has grown. He has shown himself a determined and resolute ruler. All cons of this resolution will be ascribed to his subordinates, all pros to him. I got the impression that this is a solution of the problem with the elite as well. The president made clear his readiness to act regardless of the elite and its demands. His hands are untied now, and the monocentric system formed since 1999 has been reinforced.
As for Chechnya, the regime has used only two methods there until now. The first one means force, "rub 'em out in the John" and so on. After that, we began using the so-called Chechenization.
As I see it, the possibility of negotiations with Maskhadov and his followers is zero. He is associated with Barayev now. New legislation will be adopted soon - constitution, referendum, elections, etc. The search for new men will begin now.
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