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THE 'RUSSIAN-SPEAKING GENERATION' OF CHINESE LEADERS IS GOING OUT

MOSCOW, NOVEMBER 4, 2002. /RIA Novosti political analyst Dmitry Kosyrev/. - During the current week the world will finally find out how correct were the predicted changes in the Chinese leadership, which are to be given a start at the 16th Congress of the Communist Party of China that opens on Friday. At this Chairman Jiang Zemin is expected to announce his resignation from the supreme party post and his replacement by his current first deputy Hu Jingtao.

The new leader will have to gradually accept from his predecessor all the remaining reins of government and, especially the post of head of state.

The old generation of leaders will evidently retain considerable influence - however, judging from information that has leaked from the informal annual meeting of the PRC's supreme leadership at the health resort of Beidaihe, the key positions are practically guaranteed to leaders of the "fourth generation" which Hu Jingtao and others belong to.

Apart from Hu, among the supreme leadership will also be Wen Jiabao who, it is believed, will occupy the post of Premier of the State Council - the head of the PRC's government. In general, according to Chinese notions, a great many peers and associates of Hu Jingtao are being named for the leading posts - a real personnel shake-up lies ahead.

At the same time, the "old guard" - i.e., Jiang Zemin himself, the current premier Zhu Rongji, the current head of the party's personnel department Li Lanqing and others may, while retaining membership in the party leadership and particularly in the military commission of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, restrain the young impulses of the new leaders up until the next party congress in 2007.

Experience shows that the first and absolutely logical question asked in this connection in Russia is: does the new leader speak Russia as Jiang Zemin does? The reply is: No. The political face of the leaders of the new generation, whose youth coincided with the time of hongweibings and other upheavals of the "cultural revolution", in general, differs from that of the current one.

Coming to power in China now are pragmatic people who have been accustomed to hide their thoughts and feelings in the course of many years. Hu Jingtao is a hydrological engineer and is known, though a graduate of the Qinghua university, as a very unsociable and cautious man who never made any mistakes on his long road to power.

But that does not at all mean that he will not "open up" some time after ascending to the top posts.

Wen Jiabao, a trained geologist, is also known as just as quiet and untalkative a coordinator and conflict-evading man. Politically both were nicknamed "tilting dolls," above all, because both are, in general, not too much interested in politics as such. But they and their associates have the reputation and service records of people who are extremely hard-working, capable of settling complicated economic problems, including in remote provinces.

One can see behind the fourth generation of leaders already of the fifth generation. The matter concerns that part of the over a billion-strong population of China which the journal Far Eastern Economic Review from Hongkong already today calls people who take the basic decisions.

They are men and women, writes the journal, from the generation of 30-year olds, who are doing business at private or government enterprises, as well as working in the administration, either central or local. They receive about 600 dollars a month (though women are paid considerably less than the men), have their own houses or flats, and mobile telephones, as a must.

They read papers every day, and cannot exist without computers. Incidentally, the line between the computer generation and the previous ones in the PRC runs along the age line of 55 years.

These are not "pro-western" people but, on the contrary, rather patriotic or, if you like, nationalistic-minded people. As many as 54% of the people who take the decisions whom the journal polled believe that in 5 years' time China will be the world's strongest power; 24% are not too sure of that, and 23% believe that the Chinese will take the first place on the planet much later.

And finally, by far not all know English, although they strive to learn it; but Russian is known by very few only.

Evidently, it is clear from these figures alone that the era of special relations between Moscow and Beijing, which is rooted in the 1950s, is really coming to an end with the going out of the so-called "Russian-speaking generation" of Jiang Zemin and will be entirely forgotten with the appearance in power of Hu Jingtao's successors. This, however, does not mean that it will be followed by a period of mutual cooling. Above all, because the new generations of Chinese are in their mindset very similar to Russians of the same age.

Only a really businesslike approach towards each other that rests on mutual benefit can bring success in the new era. This approach can provide a more reliable foundation for real trust and friendship, particularly, since on the whole quite a good attitude towards Russia is characteristic for all generations of the Chinese people.