#6534
#14
Vek
November 1, 2002
Who is Behind the Groups?
Nikolai Zlobin, Director of the Russian and Asian Programs at the
Center for Defense Information, discusses the Chechnya card in Russian politics.
After the capture of the hostages inside the theater center, US President George Bush was one of the first to contact Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin. Is it possible to say that major changes in America's foreign policy toward Russia will follow this incident?
Major changes have already been happening anyway. For example, the new American doctrine of national security talks about Russia in the kindest terms heard in the 20th century. A fundamental reevaluation of American-Russian relations is already underway, although it's not very evident from the sidelines. The majority of American politicians gave their due to Putin's decisiveness. Members of the enforcement agencies gave a rather high score to the professionalism of Russian special services, who took part in the operation to free the hostages. Although the press always notes that while Russia may be America's ally, Russian values are still different from American ones. This might possibly be a serious long-term problem in our relations.
The people who overtook the theater center, it seems, were tied to international criminal organizations. Because of this, can Russia rely on support from the US in the liquidation of foreign financial channels supporting the Chechen terrorists.
Undoubtedly, if Russia turns to the US with such a request, the White House will do everything possible to help the Russian side. The financing of terrorist activity is one of the major problems worrying the American establishment. And if turns out that Chechnya, even if indirectly, is mixed up in the disbursement or transport of this "dirty" money, then of course the US will be highly interested in cutting off those channels. But Russia must demonstrate to the world the danger of Chechen terrorism from the point of view of being a threat to the European civilization in general and the US in particular. I would advise Russian specialists to try and show to the West the ideological, political, and financial connection of your separatists to armed Muslim groups.
The time of pondering over the events has come. Some suggest that behind the terrorists who took the theater center stand certain people in Russian power structures. It is not impossible that in such a manner, using the Chechen problem, these people tried to destabilize the situation inside the country in order to then dictate their conditions to Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin. How do you feel about this hypothesis.
I think such a scenario is entirely possible. Throughout a long period of time certain political forces in Russia have been playing the Chechnya card in their interests. Some people would like to see Chechnya as an unhealed wound on the country's territory, which brings into question the future of this strategic region in world politics. Today Chechnya is a bomb that could blow up President Putin at any moment. With the situation in the theater center this was avoided, but who knows, might the president's opponents try once more to play the Chechen card somewhere else? It could blow up in such a way that Vladimir Putin will not recover, or he will have to accept a compromise that would devalue his entire political line. And his opponents in this case don't have to re-enter the Kremlin to control the country.
In that case all purpose of negotiating with Aslan Maskhadov is lost, because the establishment of peace in Chechnya will depend on the defeat of that same political group we were talking about earlier.
Yes, it generally seems so. Maskhadov reminds me of Araft, he controls something, but this "something" is not enough to be president of Chechnya. It is useless to talk to him, since all agreements may be broken at any point by forces not under Maskhadov's command. That's why the solution to the Chechen problem lies not in the regulation of relations with various groups in the republic itself, but with those who stand behind these groups. I'm 99% sure those are representatives of the Russian political elite. Unfortunately, there are no signs that Putin's analysts are searching for the true masters of the Chechen fighters. Interview by Stanislav Stremidlovsky
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