#6532
#2
Trud
November 2, 2002
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
MOSCOW TRAGEDY: ONE WEEK LATER
Vyacheslav NIKONOV, president, Politics foundation
October 26, 2002 will go down in Russian history as a symbol of national courage and national sorrow.
Quite possibly, fewer people could have died; some experts believe that lack of organization was manifested in some aspects.
Still this is not my subject; let investigators do their work. Meanwhile political-science experts are supposed to analyze specific political consequences.
I'd like to single out seven political consequences.
First of all, we are now witnessing an upsurge of nationalism despite all warnings.
This country urgently needs a powerful anti-nationalist and humanistic antidote. Everyone (and not just hostages) needs an intensive psycho-therapy course.
Second, the Government of Russia will inevitably conduct a tougher anti-terrorist policy. Theoretically speaking, negotiations were still possible before the attack on the Dubrovka theater center; meanwhile such talks can no longer be conducted. If it turns out that Aslan Maskhadov masterminded this terrorist outrage, then he is just another bandit, who deserves the same sorry fate as Osama bin Laden. If he didn't (which is highly unlikely), then this means that nothing depends on him; consequently, Maskhadov is unable to stop the bloody terrorist spree.
Third, a new national-security strategy, i.e. the so-called "Putin doctrine," has emerged in the context of tougher overall policies. The President of Russia said October 28 that Moscow had the right to retaliate after terrorist attacks, implementing measures that would match specific threats facing the Russian Federation. According to Putin, the Russian side can hit all terrorist camps, as well as places where terrorist-act master- minds, ideological and financial organizers are staying. To cut a long story short, Russia has now opted for a US-style pre-emptive strike concept stipulating attacks against the entire terrorist infrastructure, which is spearheaded against our country. However, one should keep in mind that the United States and Russia boast different potentials for such operations.
Fourth, the pre-emptive strike concept increases chances for using Russia's Armed Forces elsewhere. Well, this spells bad news for the leadership of Georgia, which still accommodates Chechen and international terrorists. I don't think that any strikes on Georgian territory will be of any use; still the latest hostage-taking crisis has brought them even closer.
Fifth, we should not harbor any hopes to the effect that the West will react with greater understanding to Russia's Chechen campaign. At the same time, different Western countries have now become divided on our problems. The United States, for one, displayed greater understanding and solidarity. The White House issued a statement, right after hostages were seized in Moscow, noting that they must be released immediately and without any reservations whatsoever. Moreover, the White House Administration blamed the terrorists alone for fatalities among hostages, after the crisis was resolved. Quite possibly, this may highlight mutual rapprochement, albeit to a small extent, during anti-terrorist operations, to say the least.
Sixth, Russia may face greater problems in its relations with the European Union's countries, Surely enough, all EU leaders condemned the terrorists. Nonetheless, they voiced reservations to the effect that the Russian leadership was responsible for the present-day situation, and that the Chechen conflict should be settled by political means. EU leaders, who are still making such reservations, they should specify our possible negotiating partners. The position of the Danish Government, which deemed it possible to organize a Chechen "congress" on the day when the people of Russia were mourning the terrorist act's victims, will go down in history as an unshakable symbol of the EU's attitude toward our tragedies. By the way, the afore-said "congress" involved terrorist emissaries and Danish officials. Danish authorities were really surprised to learn about Moscow's reaction later on. Still I can picture a possible US reaction, had any country organized an official function involving bin Laden's emissaries September 12, 2001. I'm afraid that Russia-EU relations will prove to be even more involved than those with the United States.
Seventh, this terrorist act and the liquidation of the thugs will inevitably enhance the prestige of Russian authorities. The National Public Opinion Center (VCIOM) has conducted an opinion poll not so long ago, with 85 percent of all respondents positively assessing the President's activities. Another 10 percent voiced their negative opinion on this score. The people of Russia can forgive just about anything but weakness to their authorities.
The top Russian leadership displayed its strength and determination October 26, with our people appreciating this in real earnest.
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