#10 - JRL 6408
Eastern Approaches: Belarus in a corner
By Eric Johnson
MINSK, Belarus, Aug. 26 (UPI) -- Last May, Moscow's Mayor Yury Luzhkov traveled to Minsk for a so-called "Moscow Days" celebration in the capital of Belarus. He joined in toasting the rich culture shared by Russia and Belarus, which though split politically after the 1991 Soviet breakup, still maintained intimate economic ties.
Luzkhov also met with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, and they politely reviewed a long-discussed -- and seemingly rusting -- proposal for Belarus-Russian "integration."
A short three months later, Lukashenko was talking about integration again -- but this time in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And at the Aug. 14 meeting, the issue was more than holiday chit-chat over shots of vodka.
Indeed, Putin jolted Lukashenko by unfurling a proposal to fast-track a total union of the two countries. The idea has been kicked around since 1995, and strongly opposed by Belarus nationalists. But this time, Russia may be bent on finally winning control over its western neighbor.
By January 2004, under Putin's plan, the Belarus currency would be the Russian ruble and its 10 million inhabitants divided into seven regions governed by the Kremlin. Belarusians would vote in Russia's next presidential election. The Russian-Belarus border would dissolve. And Moscow Days in Minsk would become a year-round event.
Since the August meeting, Lukashenko has scrambled to defend himself by using every opportunity to attack the integration plan, calling it "unacceptable" and insulting." He's also taken personal jabs at Putin, claiming he's more of a threat to Belarus' sovereignty than Lenin and Stalin ever were.
But Lukashenko -- sometimes called "Europe's last dictator" -- may be backed into a corner by economic and political realities.
The world community including the United States has blacklisted Lukashenko's 8-year-old regime. Charges of oppressed freedoms, torture and cronyism have isolated his government, and last April's bloody put-down of an anti-government march in Minsk added more substance to repeated criticism from a host of human rights groups.
Lukashenko has presided over an entrenched economic dependency on Russia, cutting Belorusians off from closer ties with wealthy western Europe -- unlike neighbors Poland, Latvia and Lithuania for whom entry into the EU seems likely in 2004.
Currently Russia buys 60 percent of Belarus' foreign exports and supplies most of its energy. Belarus' trade with its larger neighbor rose to $11 billion last year from $9 billion in 2000, the Minsk government said.
Meanwhile, the West has been trying to nudge Belarus toward reform. The U.S. State Department in May called for an end to "its self-made isolation." The Washington-based World Bank this year resumed low-interest loan offers. The International Monetary Fund says it will do business if Minsk makes financial reforms.
The head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development recently said in a letter to Lukashenko, "If Belarus were to progress in transition toward democracy and a sound investment climate as other transition countries have done, support civil society (and) hold free elections, then the bank would be in a position to conduct a broader range of operations."
But Lukashenko has scoffed at the West. He maintains that close cooperation with Russia, under a pact he signed with former Russian President Boris Yeltsin, is good enough.
"Belarusians in Russia and Russians in Belarus must not be foreigners, (and) the same goes for economic entities," Lukashenko said in a statement. "If we succeed in making concrete steps in this direction, it will be a most significant initiative of the two presidents."
When Putin took him at his word, it was a case of being careful what to wish for because you might get it. Putin, in short, caught Lukashenko off-guard.
Seeking re-election and having to take Belarusian nationalist sentiments, Lukashenko was forced to side with his opponents, the same people who for years have attacked him for cozying up to the Kremlin.
"Lukashenko went too far in his flirtations with the eastern neighbor," declared the opposition group Charter 97 last week. "He simply placed Belarus on the brink of extinction."
Lukashenko has recently stepped up his criticism of Putin's proposal. And no wonder: A recent poll showed 96 percent of Belarusians oppose absorption by Russia, although most support some sort of integration.
The diplomatic Putin has proposed an alternative -- a "European Union" arrangement, preserving each state's sovereignty but blending their economies. But the Minsk government rejected that plan as well.
Foreign Minister Mikhail Khvostov told Belarusian Television, "The two countries will never form an EU-type of union, and no one should harbor illusions about that."
Lukashenko has offered a third option -- maintaining the status quo. "Let us not destroy what we have today," he urged.
But if Putin is serious about the merger, the Belarusian leader may be facing an offer he can't refuse.
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