#7 - JRL 6407
Washington Post
August 26, 2002
Saber Rattling In Russia's No-Win War
By Masha Lipman
The writer, deputy editor of the Russian newsmagazine Ezhenedel'ny Zhurnal, writes a monthly column for The Post.
In the past month, relations between Russia and its neighbor state Georgia have come perilously close to conflict.
In the last days of July a fierce battle took place between Russian border guards and Chechen rebels in the mountainous region on the border between Georgia and Chechnya, where a group of fighters from the rebellious province had entered Russia from Georgian territory. Both sides suffered numerous casualties. Shortly after that, Georgia accused Russia of bombing its territory. On Friday, Georgia's government said Russia had killed a Georgian villager in an air raid. Russia said it didn't happen.
Russian officials have repeatedly claimed that Chechen fighters take refuge in the Pankisi Gorge separating Georgia from Chechnya. With the Georgian border guards looking the other way, they say, the Chechens use mountain paths to carry weapons and bring reinforcements across the border.
After the battle last month, the tone of these complaints grew menacing. Russia's foreign ministry has condemned Georgia for its alleged reluctance to prevent terrorism and has claimed that the Georgian side has full responsibility for the armed invasion. A prominent member of the upper house in Russia said his chamber will approve the use of force on Georgian territory. The speaker of the upper chamber sounded even more bellicose, saying Russia should follow the Israeli example and launch "preventive attacks" on Chechen terrorist bases located in Georgian territory.
Georgia's border guards reportedly arrested seven Chechen fighters as they were crossing the Chechen-Georgian border. Russia, apparently feeling this wasn't enough, demanded that the Chechens be extradited to Russia. In fact, President Vladimir Putin has gone so far as to say that the sincerity of Georgia's pledge to combat terrorism will be tested by how soon border-violators end up in Lefortovo prison in Moscow. So far Georgia has refused to extradite the prisoners, at least until the necessary legal requirements are fulfilled.
The summer's troubles mark the second time this year that Russia and Georgia have come close to military conflict. A similar outbreak took place in early spring. Georgia, though trying not to submit to Russia's pressure and threats, still is unable to neutralize the Chechen fighters hiding in the Pankisi Gorge. (It is also true, however, that, according to numerous reports, the gorge is impassable for most of the year because of snow. If it is indeed used for arms traffic during the summer, it may account for only a tiny fraction of the armaments used in Chechnya.)
American aid that might help the situation has been welcomed by Georgia, but so far it has not amounted to much. U.S. specialists are supposed to help Georgia build its own state-of-the-art anti-terrorist units.
For Russia, the problem is grave and chronic. It's the war in Chechnya itself. Almost three years into the war Russia has lost more than 4,300 soldiers, with more casualties reported every week. The Russian forces cannot keep the situation under control: Reports of clashes and casualties continued even as the Russian minister of defense was on a visit to the Caucasus. Despite Russia's pugnacious rhetoric, it is unthinkable that the Russian army would get involved on a new Georgian front. It is badly stuck in Chechnya as it is.
Russian saber rattling is another awkward attempt to blame the failure to resolve the Chechen conflict on anybody but Russia's decision-makers and its military. The frustration of the Russian government is aggravated by the fact that public opinion in Russia has shifted away from support of the war. A July survey by Russia's most respected polling institute showed that only 29 percent support the war -- a sharp decline from 70 percent in early 2000. Most Russians do not believe the Chechen conflict can be resolved by military force. Warlike rhetoric -- whether anti-Chechen, anti-Georgian or directed against international terrorism -- isn't likely to cause them to change their minds.
Back to the Top
Next Article
August 26, 2002:
#6407
- Back to the Top -