#11 - JRL 6407
Vek
No. 32
August 23, 2002
RUSSIA'S POLITICAL ELITE TRIES ON KHAKI
Political intrigues have turned into a political battle
Author: Sergey Norka
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
THE POLITICAL SITUATION AT THE TOP SEEMS TO BE VERY UNSTABLE. IN THESE TERMS, IT IS VERY SURPRISING THAT THE POLITICAL POTENTIAL OF ANATOLY CHUBAIS IS NOT BEING USED. CHUBAIS IS KNOWN AS A GOOD NEGOTIATOR WITH BOTH THE CIS NATIONS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ORGANIZATIONS.
Like Boris Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin remains above the current languid political fight between various business and political groups. However, Yeltsin was always attentively following the battles, ready to step in if necessary. Now and then, he played the role of a supreme arbiter. Putin, on the contrary, seems to have fenced himself off from all political squabbles.
It is very interesting that the media unanimously report the highest and steadiest popularity rating of the president. However, if analyze the results of the past two years, it becomes evident that so far the hopes of the majority of voters connected with coming of the Yeltsin's successor to power have not come true and, consequently, the president's high popularity rating is likely to fall. The present development of the economic situation in the country may cause the presidential rating fall next year. It should also be remembered that the political and business elite groups are uninterested in the president's high popularity rating on the threshold of the coming elections - they hope to reach certain agreements with the president in exchange to their support at the election. It is not ruled out that the aforementioned forces will make some steps to "correct" the presidential popularity rating "in the necessary direction".
Besides, it should not be forgotten that the elite groups of Yeltsin's times have a very powerful resource in the form of the prime minister. There are reasons to believe that the popularity rating of Prime Minister Mikhail Kasianov reported by the media is considerably understated. The prime minister's popularity rating has certainly grown among the population. Unlike Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Kasianov has been able to form a team which is effective because it is professional and united. Members of his team do not have disagreements and obey only their leader. Undoubtedly, Kasianov will be able to form a loyal to him and highly professional government within a short period of time. There are also reasons to believe that if there are economic difficulties next year, not the prime minister but Finance Minister Kudrin and Minister Herman Gref will be to blame officially. In short, the elite groups have an odd player in the person of Mikhail Kasianov, who can come to the field at any moment.
Taking into account all the aforementioned, it is possible to conclude that the political situation in the top circles is far from being stable. In these terms, it is very surprising that the political potential of Anatoly Chubais is not being used. In short, Anatoly Chubais is an ideal figure for negotiating with leaders of the former USSR republics, including the Baltic states. Undoubtedly, Chubais would be able to resolve the Georgian issue: he can make a proposal to Shevardnadze, which the latter will be unable to reject. If the head of the Russian Joint Energy Systems starts acting against Shevardnadze, he may easily lost his position and he realizes it very well.
If there are financial issues connected with Russia's foreign debt, Chubais is the only person, beside Kasianov, who can come to agreements with the West. It is not a coincidence that Boris Yeltsin always used Chubais as his representative during negotiations with the international financial organizations. Besides, Kasianov cannot carry out such negotiations due to his position.
Finally, Chubais has always been known as the most effective election campaign manager.
(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova)
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