#6402 #6403
#11 - JRL 6403
Kompaniya
No. 30
August 12, 2002
THE CLOUDS ARE GATHERING
The political autumn of 2002 promises to be hot
Author: Elmar Murtazayev
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
PRESIDENT PUTIN IS SAID TO BE TIRING OF BEING THE ARBITER IN DISPUTES BETWEEN RIVAL CLIQUES AT THE TOP: THE ST. PETERSBURG PEOPLE AND YELTSIN'S FAMILY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT NO SUBSTANTIAL DECISIONS ARE BEING MADE OR IMPLEMENTED WHILE THESE POWER-STRUGGLES CONTINUE.
The two-year period of stability in the executive branch seems to be drawing to a close. According to our sources, President Vladimir Putin may start making some changes in both the economic and security blocs of the Cabinet over the next six to eight weeks.
Signs of the impending upheavals appeared long ago. State officials have spent all of the past year focusing on the opposition between competing factions at the top. Any substantial issue placed on the Cabinet agenda - whether banking sector reforms or the auto industry - has become the object of destructive political bargaining between the St. Petersburg and the Family teams.
It has been destructive because none of the substantial issues have been conclusively resolved. At best, everything ends in a public scandal, as in the takeover of Slavneft; or a quiet scandal, as in the abortive consolidation of state banks. At worst (which happens most often), there are neither scandals nor solutions. The issue is merely suspended, since the St. Petersburg and the Family groups only have enough strength to disturb each other.
A vivid example is provided by the story of choosing a contractor for rebuilding the Sheremetyevo Airport. The idea of reconstructing Sheremetyevo arose as far back as 1999. A French company, Aeroport de Paris, supported by Moscow officials, was competing for the contract to construct the terminal. Besides the French, a Swedish company - Skanska, apparently backed by the officials of St. Petersburg - was among the contenders.
Rumor has it that Herman Gref supported the Swedish company, while Transportation Minister Sergei Frank supported the French company. After some battles in the bureaucratic trenches, both parties seemed to have arrived at a compromise. In March 2002, Gref and Frank signed a development plan for the airport. However, a month ago Gref altered the tender terms once again; i.e. a year of tense negotiations between the St, Petersburg and the Family teams turned out to be wasted. This whole flurry has taken place against the backdrop of Western companies fleeing Sheremetyevo.
This is only the tip of the iceberg. The customs service has been fending off attacks from the Prosecutor General's Office and putting pressure on the Tri Kita (Three Whales) furniture store chain, reportedly owned by the security officials of St. Petersburg.
Oleg Deripaska is engaged in an uncompromising and fruitless battle against Herman Gref over the terms for Russia joining the World Trade Organization.
With the prime minister's support, Pension Fund head Mikhail Zurabov is successfully repelling attempts by the St. Petersburg liberals to topple the pension monopoly.
Until a certain time, the opposition between the groups was convenient for the president, enabling him to be in the advantageous position of arbiter. However, according to sources in the Presidential Administration, Putin is now beginning to realize the futility of such a pattern of governance. Sooner or later, the lack of an economic policy becomes clear; this has happened before in Russian history. Anticipating the impending changes, state officials have frozen in tense suspense.
Two staff scenarios can be implemented under such circumstances: either backing one of the opposing teams, or eliminating the most controversial and disliked individuals from each of them. In the first case, however, the head of state might later find himself dependent on the victorious group. The second option also has its disadvantages, since both groups would resist any such moves. Most likely, the identities of the most disliked individuals are being established right now.
(Translated by Andrei Ryabochkin)
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