#6334 #6335
[Second Issue of the Day]
#6
Vek
No. 20
June-July 2002
THE COMMON CAUSE OF PUTIN AND YELTSIN
The first president of Russia is back: but not in politics
An update on the latest Russia-Belarus dispute
Author: Andrei Ryabov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
THE CONFLICT AROUND THE RUSSIA-BELARUS UNION, ACCOMPANIED BY POLEMICS WITHIN THE PUTIN-LUKASHENKO-YELTSIN TRIANGLE, REVEALS SOME OF THE COVERT MECHANISMS IN RUSSIAN POLITICS. RUSSIAN COMPANIES HAVE A UNIQUE CHANCE TO PARTICIPATE IN THE PRIVATIZATION OF BELARUSSIAN COMPANIES.
At his recent news conference, President Vladimir Putin mentioned relations with his predecessor three times, emphasizing the independence of his own policies each time. This was probably the first time Putin had spoken out so strongly on the subject. Why?
The conflict around the Russia-Belarus Union, the conflict accompanied by polemics within the Putin-Lukashenko-Yeltsin triangle, reveals some of the covert mechanisms in Russian politics.
Yeltsin's involvement in the political debates is a key factor here. It is common knowledge that Yeltsin still considers the Russia- Belarus Union as one of his major foreign policy achievements, and is sensitive to any criticism. All the same, no matter what the former president might say about his own influence - his regular meetings with ministers, Duma members, and regional leaders - most politicians and observers know that it is not Yeltsin who makes the decisions nowadays. Putin emphasized this repeatedly at his news conference. That is why all speculation about Yeltsin allegedly wanting to set up the Russia-Belarus Union and take on Lukashenko as his second-in- command (vice president), reducing Putin to the status of leader of a republic, is actually groundless. In other words, Yeltsin went to Belarus to talk to Lukashenko as a lobbyist. Lobbying whose interests? It is widely thought in Russia that if the Russia-Belarus Union is established, Belarus will be a burden for the Russian budget.
As far as the budget is concerned, those who hold this opinion are probably right. However, if we look at the issue from the point of view of Russian companies penetrating into the Belarussian economy and strengthening their positions in a nation which is Russia's path to Europe - then the overall picture is entirely different. As long as Lukashenko is in power, and Belarus is semi-isolated from the international community and therefore cannot play an active role in international politics - making it economically dependant on Russia - Russian companies have a unique chance to participate in the privatization of Belarussian companies without any competition. It is probably no coincidence that during Yeltsin's visit to Belarus there were reports about a likely merger of Belavia (the Belarussian airline) and Aeroflot. The question of privatizing other Belarussian companies may also be raised soon. So the large Russian companies which arose in the Yeltsin era are shaping their own foreign policy.
The recent establishment of the gas consortium involving Russia, Ukraine, and Germany is another event in the same pattern. Gazprom is unlikely to remain an independent player in the international arena much longer. It will be incorporated into long-term strategic projects of a different kind, where debt problems will not be settled by covert agreements. It will have to deal with Germany. The consolidated interests of the leading Russian business groups will create a new framework for Russia's foreign policy. And for domestic policy as well, since these interests are vital for the national budget. It means that the nation's leader will be forced to operate - in both foreign affairs and domestic policy - within the limits established by business elites and legitimized by international treaties and agreements. These will be policies of a different kind from those to which we are accustomed.
Back to the Top Next Article
July 2, 2002:
#6333 #6334 #6335
- Back to the Top -