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BBC Monitoring
Russian political analysts on Putin-Yeltsin relations
Source: Channel 3 TV, Moscow, in Russian 1450 gmt 24 Jun 02
On his arrival in Belarus on 21 June former Russian President Boris Yeltsin made some remarks evidently showing his disagreement with his successor Vladimir Putin's approach to Russian-Belarus integration. Russian political analysts Igor Bunin and Sergey Kurginyan see Yeltsin's trip as a part of undercover struggle between the old Kremlin guard and the so-called St Petersburg team of Putin's old friends. They also describe Putin's foreign policy as more pro-Western than that of Yeltsin. The following are excerpts from the Russian Channel 3 "Crossroads" studio discussion:
[Presenter Yekaterina Shergova] The director of the Centre for Political Technologies, Igor Bunin, and the president of international public foundation Experimental Creative Centre, Sergey Kurginyan, are the guests of the Crossroads programme today.
Sergey Yervandovich, how do you explain that journalists were so excited over the relations between the first President [Boris Yeltsin] and the incumbent one [Vladimir Putin] today?
[Kurginyan] It was a combination of natural journalistic interest in this hot subject, everybody is missing drama and a political conflict. When there is no conflict journalists have nothing to do...
[Shergova] Igor Mikhaylovich, what is the present drama and is there a political background to the situation?
[Bunin] Sergey Yervandovich thinks that this is virtual reality and that there is no conflict and journalists have made it all up. In fact there is a latent conflict and it is very serious. Boris Nikolayevich [Yeltsin] came to Belarus like an arbiter... He did it rather delicately but he took up the position of a dominant male. I think that from this point of view our president [Putin] could not tolerate this and made some statements. First, yes, there is a succession, but on the other hand, I am the president and though Yeltsin can say whatever he wants I bear the responsibility. As for Belarus - yes, we agree to have one state that is a federation rather than a confederation. Yeltsin's course was always aimed at building a confederation. Russia and Belarus should have remained two separate states within a confederation. Now Putin speaks about one state. This is a very big change in our relations with Belarus.
[Shergova] As I know, political analysts used to put two questions: why it has been done and who benefits from it? Boris Yeltsin has been absent from political life for one and a half years, but recently he began to appear at various cultural events, then he gave a big interview to [state-run] Russia TV. Why does he do this, I wonder? Is he dissatisfied with the present state of affairs? Is he trying to demonstrate a special position?
[Bunin] First, Boris Nikolayevich grew young again in recent times. He lost weight, grew young again and he wants an active life... In the past he also made critical remarks on certain aspects of Putin's policy, in particular, on the [restoration of the Soviet-era national] anthem and on freedom of press... A certain conflict really exists. [In a conversation with correspondents in Belarus] Yeltsin spoke about Putin and [Russian Prime Minister Mikhail] Kasyanov as of two political leaders. There is a conflict between two teams: the St Petersburg team [Putin's old cronies] and the Family team [officials who made careers during Yeltsin's presidency]. Yeltsin pretends to be an arbiter in this conflict. I think Putin is not satisfied with it.
[Kurginyan] I would say that Yeltsin does not want to be an arbiter. He wants to escalate this conflict and become a key player for his team... [Bunin] An information war began last winter, and Yeltsin so far is playing his role rather successfully... The struggle does not lead to a direct clash between the two clans but a certain tension is felt...
[Shergova] What is the possible outcome of the conflict?
[Bunin] It may either end with a compromise on different terms or lead to a complete break-up between the two groups.
[Shergova] What would happen in case of a complete break-up?
[Bunin] In this case the leading figures of the Family group would have to leave the scene.
[Kurginyan] Apart from the domestic policy aspect, the situation more and more acquires an international dimension... Look, Putin says that NATO may expand as it likes. It's not Yeltsin's policy... Putin is following the course of maximum rapprochement with Bush and the creation of a Russian-American coalition targeted against Islam. This course worries Europe, it worries China very much and it worries the Islamic world. It's not a secret that the Chinese still see Yeltsin as the best political leader of Russia since Stalin. He did not try to restore the USSR and at that time he was distancing himself from America...
[Bunin] I think it is an exaggeration. Yeltsin was fighting for every piece of land that did not belong to him, but every time he had to surrender... Yeltsin resisted up to the end because of his bull's nature. Putin is a more rational person, he understands that he can do nothing... His main task is the westernization of Russia... Yeltsin wanted the same, but he was a romantic, he believed that Russia would immediately acquire a status comparable, at least, with that of France. When he saw that it did not work, he got angry...
[Shergova] As our time comes to an end, I want to get back to the conflict between the so-called Family and the so-called St Petersburg clan. Can it end without a showdown? Can they settle it behind the scenes?
[Bunin] It's possible, but I think that in this case the elite would see Putin as a person who lost his dominant position.
[Kurginyan] I think this conflict cannot end peacefully.
[Shergova] Well, the only thing we can do is to follow further developments.
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