#7
Argumenty i Fakty
June 26, 2002
TYCOONS ARE GATHERING THEIR STRENGTH
Yeltsin appears on the scene
Author: Andrei Uglanov

THE RECENT ARGUMENT BETWEEN THE PRESIDENTS OF RUSSIA AND BELARUS WAS PRECEDED AND FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER PUZZLING EVENTS. FORMER PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN MET WITH ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO. COULD THIS BE THE PRELUDE TO YELTSIN'S POLITICAL COMEBACK - AND WHAT WOULD BE THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT?

Quite unexpectedly, former president Boris Yeltsin is spending the first two weeks of his summer vacation in Belarus. This was preceded by a no less puzzling four-hour meeting with President Alexander Lukashenko at Yeltsin's residence in the Moscow region. It took place during the Belarussian president's latest visit to Russia. The meeting involved Yeltsin's daughter Tatiana, her husband Valentin Yumashev, and Yeltsin's wife Naina. The substance of the conversation remains secret, of course.

Thus, against the backdrop of the subsequent dispute - when the fate of the Russia-Belarus Union was called into question - Yeltsin's visit to Belarus doesn't seem like a coincidence. Recently, Yeltsin has repeatedly let it be understood that he is tired of being a pensioner and ready to return to politics at a new level. It is not ruled out that Yeltsin will say something about the possibility of heading the Russia-Belarus Union. However, this is apparently the tip of the iceberg, playing to the audience.

It can't be ruled out the conflict between presidents Putin and Lukashenko was deliberately provoked. By whom? And for what purpose?

From a certain time, there has been talk in Moscow's highest political circles that President Putin creates a number of problems for the established tycoon community. Among them is the intention to make Russia a member of the World Trade Organization as soon as possible. For some tycoons, this would mean serious competition with western companies within Russia, and the loss of any opportunity to take over more state property in the lead-up to deregulation of land sales. On top of this is Putin's unambiguous hint at the intention to return capital from abroad. This is premature, according to the reasoning of the leaders of large companies established during the Yeltsin era - known to the media as "Yeltsin's Family".

There are also some lesser contradictions. Thus, Roman Abramovich is reportedly prepared to do a great deal to gain control of Slavneft. And this is the point on which he has differences with the president. Therefore, Yeltsin will have to have a word with Lukashenko in favor of Abramovich, as Belarus owns a stake in this company.

It's unnecessary to describe all the great capacities of Yeltsin's financial old guard. Apart from oil and banking billions, it has huge influence both in the Kremlin and in the Cabinet, as well as in the media. They say that even Boris Berezovsky's flight abroad was not due to any threat from the Kremlin. It's more likely that he was in conflict with his former partner over Sibneft.

So Yeltsin's unexpected visit to Minsk might also be viewed as a serious admonition to the present master of the Kremlin - say, there are other fish in the sea. As for the squabble between the Russian and Belarussian presidents, it was a convenient pretext for a show of strength; and most likely it did not arise by chance.

One thing remains unclear in all these developments - why President Putin has made no response as yet. Everything remains as before, although every participant is known. Perhaps Putin simply doesn't see it as significant? However, the head of state is more likely to be permitting everyone to reveal their hand, finally and publicly. Then, he will draw some conclusions about personnel.

(Translated by P. Pikhnovsky)