#5
Baltimore Sun
June 21, 2002
Editorial
Russia’s turn on Kyoto
The temperatures in Moscow these days are the same as they were 30 years ago in Voronezh -- 250 miles to the south. The city is saving money in winter and doing less environmental damage by using a milder blend of road salt, because of the warmer conditions.
At the same time, all of Russia is experiencing an explosion in its tick population. Plagues of locusts have appeared where they never visited before. Flooding becomes ever more commonplace.
None of this confirms global warming, much less a human role in global warming -- but the circumstantial evidence is likely to be enough to prod the Russian government into action.
Already, climatologists are warning that the fertile Black Soil region in the south is in danger of turning into a Dust Bowl; farmland farther north, even with the benefit of warmer weather, is nowhere near rich enough to make up the losses.
And so Russia turns to the Kyoto Protocol. The key to the treaty on greenhouse-gas emissions is in Moscow's hands, because it will go into effect once Russia, as the world's third-largest producer of such gases, ratifies it. Japan and the European Union have already done so. Moscow is expected to follow sometime next winter, setting Kyoto in motion -- even as the United States remains aloof. Government agencies are exploring costs and benefits, but there is little doubt about the outcome.
That will leave the United States alone among the major industrialized countries. America will continue to be the source of one-third of all greenhouse gases, and no one will be doing anything about it.
That's not to say that the rest of the world is filled with virtue. The Kyoto treaty is a ramshackle collection of compromises, and one of them allows Russia to turn back to 1990 in establishing its baseline on pollution. With economic collapse in the decade that followed, Russian fuel use today is about 36 percent lower than it was 12 years ago. Russia would have to play pollution catch-up just to meet its Kyoto commitments even as everyone else was cutting back -- or, alternatively, it could trade its emission quotas to other, wealthier nations.
That's right. Russia stands to gain financially from Kyoto -- by as much as $20 billion in new foreign investment taking advantage of the pollution rights -- and until 2012 at the earliest wouldn't have to do anything to reduce its own emissions. That doesn't make the air any cleaner, but in a curious way it's progress nonetheless.
Russian industry would be modernized by the investment, and that's a good way to cut pollution. The treaty sets up a collective and strict monitoring system, which is an important start. The initial effect on global warming is likely to be modest, but countries that ratify the treaty declare themselves willing to take action, and commit themselves to a second round of negotiations. That round, ideally, will devise some measures with teeth in them.
Kyoto marks the beginning of a process (much as the White House hates that idea) rather than the attainment of a goal.
Russia would love to see the United States come on board. The United States would have more need of pollution rights, and more money to spend on them, than anyone else, for one thing. But just because something's good for Russia and a lot of other countries doesn't mean it can't be good for America, too. Greenhouse gases are a serious issue anywhere, and so is the responsibility for them; the way things are now, the United States looks not only reckless but also as if it's intent on sponging off the rest of the world.
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