#6278
[Second Issue of the Day]
#7
Novaya Gazeta
No. 37
May 27-29, 2002
PATROLS MARCHING STERNLY
In order to achieve progress the president needs to disperse the
"blockade"
Author: Aleksander Dobrovinsky
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
RUSSIA SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE: INTRIGUES BETWEEN THE AUTHORITIES MIGHT BEGIN SOON. ALL SECURITY STRUCTURES, ALL FINANCE, STATE MONOPOLIES, THE DEFENSE INDUSTRIES, OTHER INDUSTRIES, LEGISLATIVE AUTHORITY AND THE PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION ARE IN THE HANDS OF THE ST. PETERSBURG PEOPLE.
Reading the list of people from St. Petersburg is very interesting. Putin is the President, S. Ivanov - Defense Minister, Gryzlov - Interior Minister, Patrushev - FSB Head, Mironov - Speaker of the Federation Council, Zubkov - Financial Monitoring, Stepashin - Chamber of Public Accounts, Gref - Economic Ministry, Klebanov - is in charge of defense industries, Matviyenko - Deputy Prime Minister, Kudrin - Finance Minister, Ignatyev - the Central Bank, Kozak, Sechin, Medvedev and one more Ivanov - the Presidential Administration, Reiman - the Communications Ministry, Shevchenko - the Healthcare Ministry, D. Vasilyev - the State Customs Committee, Illarionov - presidential advisor, Chubais - RJES, Miller and Krasnenkov - Gazprom, Smirnov - Spetssnabeksport of the Atomic Energy Ministry, plus a few tens of less ranking officials.
All security structures, all finance, state monopolies, the defense industries, other industries, legislative authority and the Presidential Administration are in the hands of St. Petersburg - a so- called "Leningrad blockade" of power.
What might this mean?
Historically, there as always been two strategies of coming to power: to gather friends-compatriots and appoint people to positions holding to a principle of professionalism divided into loyalty.
What advantages and disadvantages do these strategies have? When one's friends are at power, you sit on the chair firmly. You know everything about them: what are they capable of and what can be expected of them. However this is where the danger lies: they know you, your weak points and your past as well.
The fact that these people are by no means always professionals is the most significance flaw.
To select a team according to skill is not easy either. Professionals know what they're doing, but they will not be owned. It is impossible to approach a professional and say: "Do that because I want it." A professional would answer: "Give me your written instruction."
It is hard to come to power using professionals since this process entails cutting back on principles, which the professionals do reluctantly. It will be necessary to divide the power with them, rather than responsibility alone.
The first variant - the "Leningrad blockade" complied of friends and compatriots is evident in our case.
"New natives of St. Petersburg" always find common language between one another and therefore there are no conflicts among them. Even if Gref exchanges punches with Illarionov in public, this is more likely to be a strange form of holding a scientific discussion.
"Blockaded people" continue observe integrity of relations, what enables keeping the country afloat for some reason.
The fact that besides "new natives of St. Petersburg" there also "old Leningrad natives" is quite the other case. Relations between them are more complicated: they are accommodating themselves to one another. However, as any emigrants both these groups at least have common reminiscences. A Ryazan resident can only discuss business with a Perm resident. As is known, major affairs are solved at friendly meetings, rather than at offices.
Therefore, the roster of the injured looks logical enough: all of them are either Muscovites of representatives of the CIS - Berezovsky, Gusinsky, Aksenenko, Goldovsky...
Psychologically, the "new" feel themselves stronger than their predecessors. The latter have probably stayed for to long and the time might have come to replace them? Therefore, the "old" are sometimes bitten in order to check their stamina, whereas nobody touches the "new."
The "new" are more active, they show of on TV more: Mironov is very talkative, Illarionov is a TV star. The "old" have been scanning the situation, adapt themselves and doing business, because they managed to become professionals, for instance, Stepashin, Chubais...
It is not clear when the "new" will become professionals, if ever. Similarly, it is unclear whether the president needs a similar metamorphosis.
Thus far, we know nothing about professionalism of these people, but what we see is more likely convince us of the reverse. One phrase is the distinctive trait of them all: "The president is always right," and it is impossible to judge about politicians' professionalism.
There arises an impression that all these "blockaded people" make a mere warding team, the task of which is to prop the president until he doesn't learn to walk by himself.
They were given the role of monitors, whose main task is to retain what they were entrusted with, but nothing more.
Alleged oligarch Pugachev falls out of this team alone. He is the only person whom it has been permitted to curse loudly. All the rest are not vulnerable to public ostracism.
Putin has some guaranteed time, during which the St. Petersburg team won't surrender him; the president's authority will strengthen and then he will be demanding for results not from Kasianov alone. Sooner or later there will come time to change the team. How? There are two options: either to shuffle the deck having appointed Ivanov as Minister of Healthcare and Miller as FSB head, either dismiss all and hire professionals.
The second option would mean that the St. Petersburg team fulfilled their task, alleviated the situation after Boris Nikolayevich. If they are not replaced, they would begin intriguing, eat each other, loosening the blockade in such a manner.
Since the St. Petersburg team is not a family, which is stewing in its own juice and where everything is common.
It is the family where they can flog hair to one another and break cut-glass ware, but nobody of the team would be let be offended. Offenses always present in the situation of friendly collective.
"Blockaded people" do not resemble a family; more likely, they are an organized community. For instance, Klebanov was downgraded and nobody was outraged. Such tricks wouldn't pass with the family, since it would immediately rebel.
If Putin seems to realize all of this and decides to select a new team of professionals after all, it will, firstly, be the only correct step and, secondly, it would mean that our president is rather competent manager.
However, former friends would get offended and start recall something. Rather soon we might be able to see intrigues of the "St. Petersburg court." Moreover, among "blockaded people" there are ones, who are able to form interior groupings and those who are inclines for designing with cannibalism.
In order to snatch a moment when the wind of changes starts blowing, it is indispensable to observe Voloshin, who had over his long term at power outlived everything the "new natives of St. Petersburg" haven't yet experienced and everybody, having become a professional manager. As soon as he is appointed to a certain key post, it would mean that Putin had counted on what we are talking about.
If Voloshin is forced to resign, our theory would have an error, and the most important for the president will be to maintain calm in the sea.
The salt is how precisely Putin had calculated the duration of the "blockade," since the form of power which is now being built of "monitors" in no way influences its contents - the country is still managed on its own. However, the first stage - seizing the throne and retention of power - is accomplished, it is time to change something, while non-professional "monitors" start manifesting enthusiasm and collapse what is preserved thus far.
The time hasn't been working for the "blockaded people" anymore and neither it has been working on Putin. Therefore, in order to achieve progress the president needs to disperse the "blockade" himself. If our calculations are correct, this is to happen within the next 6-8 months.
(Translated by Andrei Ryabochkin)
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