#6162
[Second Issue of the Day]
#4
From: "Peter Lavelle" <plavelle@metropol.ru>
Subject: A Reluctant Russophile - JRL Weekly Review (JRL #6150 - # 6159)
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2002
Peter Lavelle: A Reluctant Russophile - JRL Weekly Review (JRL #6150 - # 6159)
[Note: With David's permission, I have volunteered to write a short weekly review of the JRL on a trial basis. My aim is two fold. First, I believe a critical overview of some of the postings can be helpful for those who have a strong interest in things Russian, though due to time constraints cannot fully digest David's heroic efforts. Second, I hope to generate more discussion on the List. We all are presented with a huge corpus of material to think about, I hope I can help focus our "imagined community" to better understand the subject so many of us are obsessed with and to promote more interaction among subscribers. At the outset I would like to make clear what I intend to comment on. Almost all news service reports will not be reviewed, unless there is something unique or compelling in the report. I am most interested in analysis, especially from those who post original material on the JRL. This posting will be made, if it is eventually deemed helpful after a number of weeks, every Friday (COB - Moscow time). Additionally, this will not be a forum agitating my occasional "Untimely Thoughts"; others review my thoughts much to my satisfaction without me blowing my own horn. "Untimely Thoughts" will continue uninterrupted. Lastly, I represent myself and not the JRL or David. I am very appreciative that David has created a forum for me to express my opinion how others write and think about Russia.]
JRL #6150
UPI: Martin Sieff, Analysis: Experts fear for Russia's future: Sieff's piece is exactly the kind of analysis that is not analysis. Unfortunately, this kind of "Russia-watching" is what many politicians and the international business community is exposed to. Anyone paying attention read Lilia Shevtsova's excellent Carnegie presentation and Vogel's longer, through more general analysis, should come away with a very different interpretation. After reading both, the word "fear" did not come to my mind. If any single word is be used to describe what both scholars stressed it is "challenge". Putin's reform-restructuring project has a long way to go. But Putin's Russia has a way to go before the word fear should be invoked. I know titles are part of the journalistic trade and in this case Sieff should have used the title "Experts see complex and challenging decisions ahead for Putin". Not too sexy, though closer to what the experts actually said.
Richard J. Thomas' response to Peter Gallo's "Hermitage's Browder Say Being An Activist Investor Pays in Russia" is spot on when thinking about Russia's equity markets - pre-1998 and after. For those of us who have observed the markets on a daily basis since the August meltdown, it is fair to say that investing in Russia has only slightly improved . I also agree with Thomas about rolling-up the sleeves and getting directly involved - these are the folks who make the real super-profits. Thomas is also right about investors having short memories. I have always preferred the phrase "greed is stronger than fear". Thomas' experience and insights are as good as it gets. However, I do very much appreciate Browder's hard work. He helps the greedy and those with memory loss to remember what it really means to invest in Russia today.
Are Duma deputies worth listening to? Most of the time the answer is an unequivocal no. However, Vladimir Ryzhkov's "No Modernization Without Representation" is an example of a parliamentarian who reflects seriously about Russia's battle to become more democratic. He is not very optimistic. Comparing Russia's experiment with democracy of 1906 - 1917 to 1989 to the present has its limitations. He suggests that France's Fifth Republic experiment might be the best model for Russia. Many in France have reservations about the Fifth Republic; I cannot see how Russians would be happy by emulating the French. But then again, most Russians I know could give a hoot about democracy. A good car, dacha, and foreign vacation on a hot beach are much higher in the wish list. Ridding Moscow of the "blacks" is high on the list too.
JRL #6152
I will be shamelessly short and to the point. Stratfor.com's "Crisis Looming Between US, Russia" should be re-titled and re-analyzed. Stratfor.com's analysis of Russia is in crisis. Go back to the drawing board guys, in our 9/11 world your doomsday scenarios are dwarfed by the "superior intelligence" of CNN's Wolf Blitzer. Bill Bennett's title "The Death of Outrage" should be appropriated to Starfor.com's level of analysis. I am relieved that I am not alone in thinking this way. Please see (#JRL 6154) Mikhail Tsypkin's comments on the Strarfor piece.
JRL # 6153
Golts in "The Battle of Pskov" of the RJ provides an update on one of Putin' s biggest headaches - military reform. Rumor has it that military reform will be high on Putin's list when he discusses Russia's priorities during his annual address next month. Golts looks at the barriers the military establishment creates to slow reform and block the introduction of a volunteer army. Golts' assumption that the General Staff has already decided that the experiment with the 76th Division will fail is well reasoned. However, I would go even further. Considering how Putin has ruled to date, if the experiment with the 76th Division is deemed a failure, more than just a few heads will roll in the General Staff. Putin will not accept failure, someone else will be found to accept failure for him. JRL # 6154
US News and World Report: "Moscow's Vlad and Gorby show": When will western commentators get over their fascination with Gorbachev? Putin does not mind that the man who inherited a superpower and then left behind a country in complete decay travels to foreign capitals. Just listen to his interviews - and don't blame what he says on poor translation. He has little meaningful to say. If Yelstin was a big disappointment for most Russians, Gorbachev remains a disgrace. His influence in Russia is even dwarfed by the midget size of Zhrinovsky. I had lunch with him a few months ago (ok, with about 100 other people too). The local feeling was to be respectful, but "Gorby' s" time is long over. (I am the first to agree that the American lecture circuit is lucrative).
Panarin asks the reader to compare Pax Americana's liberalism with Social Darwinism in his "On Totalitarian Utopianism and Liberal Realism". His words and ideas reflect well what much of "Russia's thinking society" is talking about at present. "We ... see that regress in civilized conduct in modern international relations, which have been simplified in favor of the naked dictate of power. The body of contemporary liberal analysis, describing the nature of US actions, finds in them one simple but all encompassing explanation and justification. It is because they are stronger." Maybe these words are sour grapes from the weak. Nonetheless, foreign policy commentary should be allowed a margin for sober expression, beyond the almost hysterical sound bites coming out the Pentagon.
JRL # 6155
A quick comment on John Lloyd's: "The ever-so-popular Mr. Putin". First the main part of the title almost has nothing to do with what is presented. Second, Lilia Shevtsova's Carnegie presentation is misinterpreted (again) or simply not understood. Much of what Lloyd tells us what Russia must do to become a real and reliable ally of the west will not be (according to Shevtsova) accomplished for a very long time. Shevtsova claims that Putin is working with a new set of assumptions about Russia's place in the world. She does not claim that those have become a reality.
Novaya Gazeta's "TO BE EQUAL FRIENDS. Interview with Alexei Arbatov of the Yabloko party" is matter of fact interview about the personal and personnel politics of military reform. For those interested in a smart and well-reasoned presentation on Russia's concerns related to arms control and the present state of the US-Russia, Arbatov's interview is a worthwhile read.
Marina Shakina's "PUTIN, TWO YEARS ON" presents how one writer sees Putin's political evolution since being elected president. For her the President's evolution is positive though incomplete. She suggests the Soviet bureaucratic legacy will be with Russia society for the foreseeable future. Political discourse has changed and new political agendas advanced but institutions lag beyond. Sitting here in a Moscow office, her words ring very clear.
JRL # 6157
Svetlana Babayeva and Georgy Bovt in "PRESIDENT'S MIDDAY" give a different spin on the President's first two years. The authors are less enamored by achievements as they are by the change in perception under Putin. Putin is the right man to lead Russia; he just lacks the right kind of people around him. They also argue that if Putin does not attempt some kind of breakthrough in the economic sphere, his reform drive will stall. Forget the last half of the article - it is only street gossip that clouds rationality.
JRL # 6159
Russia Business List #288 - Tom Adshead on political events. This List needs to hear more from Tom Adshead of the brokerage house Troika Dialog - my most worthy competitor. My experience is that he usually applies a convincing balance between rumors and analysis. I like the comment that Putin is probably really on vacation! No deep-seated political intrigue should be garnered from the fact that the President is relaxing and thinking about his address to the nation. He also has a reasoned spin on the Seleznov saga. He also has some thoughts on the Borodin case that should be given consideration.
Back to the Top Next Article
- Back to the Top -