Johnson's Russia List
#6133
14 March 2002
davidjohnson@erols.com
A CDI Project
www.cdi.org
[Note from David Johnson:
1. George Breslauer: New book GORBACHEV AND YELTSIN AS LEADERS:
2. Reuters: Bush 'optimistic' on US-Russia nuclear arms pact.
3. Reuters: Bush calls for end to Russian poultry trade ban.
4. Interfax: Putin speaks of legacy of the past in Russian-US relations.
5. UPI: Putin wishes Izvestia happy 85th birthday.
6. Montgomery Journal (Maryland): Sara Michael, Books get reprieve.
Agreement Allows Bookstore to Find Homes for Volumes.
7. Kommersant: PUTIN TO APPOINT GOVERNORS.
8. RIA Novosti: Yuri Filippov, COMMENTARY: LAND--RUSSIA'S ETERNAL QUESTION.
9. pravda.ru: REFORM OF HOUSING AND COMMUNAL SERVICES: “JUST PAY AND YOU
WILL BE HAPPY”
10. Moscow Times: Pavel Felgenhauer, Bomb Makers' Trade Union.
11. AP: Gazprom Denies Evading Russian Taxes.
12. Reuters: Chechnya villagers display bodies in protest.
13. RIA Novosti: REPORTS ON SHOT STARYE ATAGI VILLAGERS IN CHECHNYA IS A
PROVOCATION AGAINST FEDERAL FORCE.
14. Vremya MN: Viktor BULGAKOV, ANALYTICAL FORECAST FOR SOCIAL TENSIONS
IN 2002.
15. RFE/RL: Michael Lelyveld, Moscow's Rift Widens With OPEC.
16. Luba Schwartzman: ORT Review.]
*******
#1
Date: Wed, 13 Mar 2002
From: George Breslauer
Subject: GORBACHEV AND YELTSIN AS LEADERS
Dear David,
I am pleased to inform readers of JRL that my book, GORBACHEV AND YELTSIN
AS LEADERS (344 pp.) is about to appear and can now be ordered from
Cambridge University Press. It appears in a simultaneous paperback
edition, which is priced at $23.00.
Brief endorsements of the book, by Jack Matlock, Strobe Talbott, Dennis
Ross, and Archie Brown, appear on the back cover. To quote just one of
them, Jack Matlock, former US Ambassador to the USSR and an accomplished
scholar, writes: "George Breslauer's Gorbachev and Yeltsin as Leaders is
the most insightful analysis of recent Russian statecraft yet to appear.
Unlike many scholars who treat Gorbachev and Yeltsin as either heroes or
failures, Breslauer carefully balances their successes and their
shortcomings, examines conflicting interpretations of events, and offers a
fascinating comparison of their respective styles of leadership. The book
is a landmark in the study of political leadership and of Russian politics.
It cannot be ignored by anyone seriously interested in present-day Russia."
Here is the thrust of the book:
How did Gorbachev and Yeltsin get away with transforming and replacing the
Soviet system and its foreign relations? Why did they act as they did in
pushing for such radical changes? And how will history evaluate their
accomplishments? This book compares and evaluates the leadership
strategies adopted by Gorbachev and Yeltsin at each stage of their
administrations: political rise, political ascendancy, and political
decline. It focuses on how these men used the power of ideas to mobilize
support for their policies, to seize the initiative from political rivals,
and to mold their images as effective problem-solvers, politicians, and
symbols of national elan. The book also systematically compares these men
with Khrushchev and Brezhnev, yielding new insights into the nature of
Soviet and post-Soviet politics and into the dynamics of "transformational
leadership" more generally. I have tried to write a book that is both
subtle and lucid, and one that will be of equal interest to area
specialists and leadership theorists.
The Table of Contents follows:
Preface
1. Leadership Strategies in Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics
2. Gorbachev and Yeltsin: Personalities and Beliefs
3. The Rise of Gorbachev
4. Gorbachev Ascendant
5. Gorbachev on the Political Defensive
6. Yeltsin versus Gorbachev
7. Yeltsin Ascendant
8. Yeltsin on the Political Defensive
9. Yeltsin Lashes Out: The Invasion of Chechnya (December 1994)
10. Yeltsin's Many Last Hurrah's
11. Explaining Leaders' Choices, 1985-1999
12. Criteria for the Evaluation of Transformational Leaders
13. Evaluating Gorbachev as Leader
14. Evaluating Yeltsin as Leader
Best wishes,
George
*******
#2
Bush 'optimistic' on US-Russia nuclear arms pact
By Charles Aldinger
WASHINGTON, March 13 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush expressed
optimism on Wednesday that the United States and Russia would reach formal
agreement on joint nuclear arms cuts in time for a May summit meeting.
Bush spoke at a White House news conference after Russian Defense Minister
Sergei Ivanov said he and U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld had made
key progress on a binding arms agreement in two days of Pentagon talks.
"I share the minister's optimism that we can get something done by May. I
would like to sign a document in Russia when I'm there. I think it would be
a good thing," Bush said of his May 23-26 summit with Russian President
Vladimir Putin in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
"We have got to work hard to establish a new relationship," with Russia,
Bush added. "I also agree with President Putin that there needs to be a
document that outlives both of us. What form that comes in we will discuss."
Bush and Putin have agreed to cut their current nuclear arsenals of between
6,000 and 7,000 nuclear warheads by two-thirds over the next decade, but
Russia has objected to announced Pentagon plans to store instead of destroy
some of those American warheads.
Bush said the United States was talking with Russia about "storage versus
destruction" of nuclear warheads.
"I think the most important thing, though, is verification," he told
reporters.
IVANOV CITES PROGRESS IN TALKS
Ivanov met Bush on Tuesday and said after ending talks with Rumsfeld on
Wednesday that key progress had been made.
"I think that some specific results have been achieved," he said. "The
issue of transparency was also clarified."
Questioned about the U.S. plans to store rather than destroy some of its
warheads, Ivanov declined to say whether Russia might shelve some of its own.
But he made clear that "equal security" was a concern in Moscow.
"So all options are being discussed," Ivanov said, adding that if Russia
developed plans to store such weapons it would inform Washington.
"It is true that for some period of time those warheads (removed from
weapons) could be stored or shelved. But the time will inevitably come when
those warheads will have to be destroyed," he added. "The same is true
about delivery systems."
Putin and Bush have pledged to slash their strategic arsenals to somewhere
between 1,500 and 2,000 warheads.
Rumsfeld and Ivanov, stressing cooperation rather than confrontation in a
post-Cold War world, discussed closer ties in a number of areas, including
the war on terrorism.
NO COUNTRY TARGETED-RUMSFELD
Rumsfeld also moved to soften the controversy over a recent Pentagon
nuclear posture review that reportedly included the possibility of
developing new types of nuclear arms and contingency plans for using them
against Russia, China, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Libya and Syria.
"The review says nothing about targeting any country with nuclear weapons.
The United States targets no country on a day-to-day basis," Rumsfeld said.
At the White House, Bush said, "We've got all options on the table because
we want to make it very clear to nations that you will not threaten the
United States or use weapons of mass destruction against us, or our allies
or friends."
"The reason one has a nuclear arsenal is to serve as a deterrence," Bush
said.
*******
#3
Bush calls for end to Russian poultry trade ban
By Richard Cowan
WASHINGTON, March 13 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush Wednesday waded
into a poultry trade dispute between the United States and Russia, saying
the spat needed to be resolved, but predicting it would not sour bilateral
relations.
With a wry smile on his face during a White House news conference, Bush
said: "We got to get this chicken issue resolved and get those chickens
moving from the United States into the Russian market."
Earlier this week, Russia banned imports of chicken and turkey from the
United States, citing salmonella contamination concerns and other
troublesome practices on U.S. shipments.
But U.S. officials have dismissed those concerns.
During testimony Wednesday before a House panel, U.S. Agriculture
Undersecretary J.B. Penn said: "There is absolutely no merit in claims by
Russia about quality or safety of our product."
Penn labeled Russia's concerns a "trumped up charge" and the U.S. industry
has accused Russia of erecting trade barriers to protect its domestic
poultry industry.
"We laugh, but nevertheless it is a problem. We must honor agreements, but
I believe we're going to have great relations with Russia," Bush said.
He volunteered remarks on the poultry dispute as part of a broader
discussion of U.S.-Russia relations.
The trade dispute has gotten attention at unusually high levels within the
U.S. government. Besides Bush's remarks, U.S. Secretary of State Colin
Powell raised the poultry dispute during a Monday telephone conversation
with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov.
That is because poultry is a major U.S. export to Russia, with half of all
production being shipped there.
Last year, about $640 million worth of U.S. chicken and poultry, mainly
low-cost chicken leg quarters, were sold to Russia.
Bush might also have taken a personal interest in the dispute because the
leg quarters are known as "Bush legs" among Russian consumers.
That name was popularized during Bush's father's presidency, when the
United States first shipped the chicken to Russia as part of a food aid
program, which subsequently grew into a large commercial venture for the
U.S. industry.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman was supposed to meet Wednesday with
the Russian ambassador to call for an immediate end to the poultry ban.
The trade dispute comes as Russia is seeking entry into the World Trade
Organization and U.S. officials have suggested the ban could hurt its chances.
*******
#4
Putin speaks of legacy of the past in Russian-US relations
Interfax
Moscow, 13 March: Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Russian-US
relations "are developing positively, and their quality has changed for the
better".
In an interview in Moscow on Wednesday [13 March], on a visit to the offices
of the Izvestiya newspaper to mark its 85th anniversary, the president at the
same time said that, nevertheless, there were points in relations between
Russia and the USA on which their positions did not coincide. To eliminate
the problems that arise, Vladimir Putin said, "it is necessary continuously
to clarify each other's positions". He said that work in that area was
particularly important.
The president went on to say that, to some extent, the "heavy legacy of the
past on the part of both countries and their people" was in the way of the
development of relations between the two.
In Vladimir Putin's view, more people in the USA than in Russia still think
in the terms of the past. His explanation for this was that over the past
decade Russia had undergone radical transformations after the Soviet Union
had disintegrated, whereas no cataclysms on such a scale had taken place in
the United States.
That is why, the president remarked humorously, the USA has "more of a
concrete-and-steel approach to problems of bilateral relations".
The Russian president said it was necessary " to build up strenuously and
methodically the whole system of new relations between Russia and America".
He said that points should be chosen where the two countries' interests
coincide, and advantage taken of these points and areas as a firm basis for
joint work.
"Our countries have a mutual interest in each other, and that is a good
foundation," the president said. At the same time, he said, Russia will
defend its interests, in particular military, "without hysterics, noise and
dust".
*******
#5
Putin wishes Izvestia happy 85th birthday
MOSCOW, March 13 (UPI) -- Russia should not lift a moratorium on capital
punishment, will leave unchanged the current income tax rate and will pass
a law allowing pacifists to serve without arms under an alternative program
of military service, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday.
The president tackled these and other issues during a rare visit to
Moscow's influential Izvestia daily newspaper, which celebrated Wednesday
its 85th birthday.
Accompanied by Press Minister Mikhail Lesin, Putin was taken on a tour of
the newspaper's offices by Izvestia Editor-in-Chief Mikhail Kozhokin.
At the meeting with the paper's staff, Putin praised the daily that has
become a trademark of Russian journalism since its foundation in 1917 in
Russia's imperial capital of Petrograd, today's St. Petersburg.
The meeting also included Rada Adzhubei, Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev's
daughter and widow of 1959-64 Izvestia editor Alexei Adzhubei.
Adzhubei headed the paper during its heyday when the circulation hit 6
million copies, a print run that dwarfs today's figure of 230,000.
Until 1991, the paper was the official mouthpiece of the Supreme Soviet of
the Soviet Union.
The president said he was Izvestia's regular reader and credited the paper
with its "creative survival" in the post-Soviet era.
"Not only did you manage to survive economically -- which isn't hard to do
if you cling to a 'money bag,'" Putin said, alluding to Russia's super-rich
oligarchs whose control over the media marked the 1990s, "you also survived
creatively.
"When there is an economic freedom, there is also a creative freedom," the
president added, welcoming the paper's announcement of handing out
dividends to its shareholders.
According to Putin, Izvestia "did not abuse press freedom" and preferred
accuracy and credibility to the "drive to report a hot piece of news at any
price."
Putin admitted that he didn't read publications and books written about
him, but highly valued analysis in journalism, which he likened to a
conversation with a "wise man."
"I don't read about myself, I haven't even read the books about me. I know
everything about me anyway, so such reading would be a waste of time," he
said.
The daily's senior correspondents and editors flooded Putin with questions
as his visit spontaneously turned into an impromptu press conference.
The president firmly rejected the idea of restoration of the death penalty
in Russia, which was suspended in 1996 as a pre-condition of the country's
entry in the Council of Europe.
"Lifting the moratorium on the capital punishment is senseless. Such a move
would only raise some people's political ratings, but would not resolve the
fight with crime," said Putin, commenting an initiative by some of Russia's
lawmakers to reintroduce the death sentence.
The president was equally unequivocal on the issue of the alternative
military service which had sparked in recent months heated debates as the
government and military worked on a bill that would allow young men of
draft-age to choose between regular army service and its civilian alternative.
Putin defended the right of conscripts to have the same choice as their
counterparts in other countries, but warned, "no one has the right to
speculate on this issue before the appropriate law is passed."
Putin was referring to a pilot program launched by the mayor of Russia's
third-largest city of Nizhny Novgorod where a group of conscripts who
refused to serve in regular army units were assigned to work as orderlies
at a local hospital in what was tagged as "alternative military service."
Putin said that the issue was exploited by the city chief who thus
attempted to boost his "paltry rating" ahead of the upcoming mayoral election.
Russia's constitution provides for alternative military service, but the
failure of Russia's lawmakers to pass an appropriate law has created a
legal gap that de facto annulled the constitutional right as the military
continued calling up all males age 18 to 27 to do their tour of duty.
Putin also said he welcomed the experiment launched in one of Russia's
elite paratroop units in the northwest city of Pskov in which drafted
servicemen will gradually be replaced by professional soldiers serving
under contracts.
The issue of Russia's current income tax rate proved to be no less
sensitive as the president had to address the journalists twice in order to
convince them of a steady taxation policy.
"This year, the income tax must not be changed," said Putin, in response to
forecasts of a possible tax increase.
At the same time, Putin said that "there was no room for decreasing the
income tax (further), we need to improve the entire taxation system."
Russia currently has a flat, 13 percent income tax rate that has been
widely advertised in the media as one of the lowest in the world, calling
on reluctant taxpayers to "step out of the shadow" and declare their true
incomes in order to fight widespread tax evasion.
The president replied rather diplomatically to a question regarding the
situation in the television business with the March 27 bidding for Russia's
Channel Six being in the focus of the Russian media.
"We have a special man," Putin said, pointing at Lesin whose ministry
oversees the bidding process.
On a number of previous occasions, Putin has tried to distance himself from
the issue as many analysts said Kremlin orchestrated the recent shutdown of
the independent TV-6 television network.
The president's comments were copious, however, on the issue of
U.S.-Russian ties which he said were "developing positively, their quality
has changed for the better."
Putin added that bilateral ties were still hampered to a certain extent by
the "complicated legacy of the past."
"I think that there may be even more people in the United States than here
whose mental frame still echoes the times past. That's because Russia has
radically changed over the last decade while in the United States
everything remained the way it was," Putin said.
"Our countries share common interests and that is a good foundation" for
building ties further, he added.
Asked to comment on the project to decentralize government authorities
structure, Putin said that he "agreed in principle" with the initiative
that could see some of the ministries moved to his birthplace, St.
Petersburg, and some other cities.
"Distribution of centralized (government) functions throughout the country
is a good proposal," Putin said, citing examples of other European
countries that had successfully transferred authority from their capitals
to provincial cities.
*******
#6
Montgomery Journal (Maryland)
March 13, 2002
Books get reprieve
Agreement Allows Bookstore to Find Homes for Volumes
By SARA MICHAEL
Journal staff writer
Employees of a Rockville Russian bookstore began the daunting task
Tuesday of finding nearly 2 million books a new home, following an
agreement to allow the owner an extra three weeks before being evicted.
Igor Kalageorgi, owner of Victor Kamkin Bookstore, was facing eviction
Monday, and until his landlord agreed to extend his stay, the books were
being threatened with incineration.
The agreement gave Kalageorgi until April 1 to divide his stock; the
books he can't fit into his planned new locations will be donated to
libraries and museums rather than being burned.
``We are going to be working here to frantically organize for our
move," Kalageorgi said Tuesday at the Rockville store, which is closed to
walk-in customers.
With the help of members of the Library of Congress, Kalageorgi said he
will have all of his staff, and possibly a few more hires, arrange the
stock that has filled two massive buildings on the Boiling Brook Parkway
since 1989. He plans to rent one large warehouse where most of the books
will be housed and the mail-order, subscriptions and Web site orders will
be operated. Kalageorgi plans a second, smaller store in an easily
accessible area to provide customers a walk-in retail space, he said.
Exactly where both would be located has yet to be determined.
U.S. Rep. Connie Morella, R-8th District, facilitated the accord by
contacting both sides over the weekend and negotiating with them and the
Librarian of Congress, James Billington. The stock left over after the move
will be distributed by the landlord and the Library of Congress to various
libraries, universities and organizations.
``A number of these books have historical and cultural significance,"
said Jonathan Dean, a spokesman for Morella.
Kalageorgi's landlord, Allen Kronstadt, said Monday Kalageorgi was nine
months behind in rent, which Kalageorgi estimated at more than $100,000.
Kalageorgi said he had fallen on hard times financially and had been unable
to pay the rent. The agreement released Kalageorgi from all his past debt
and required him to pay rent for the next three weeks.
And though he didn't want the books burned, Kronstadt said the eviction
required any contents left in the store to be destroyed by the Sheriff's
Office.
``I never had possession of the property. It wasn't mine to give,"
Kronstadt said. ``It was never my intention to have the books burned."
However, had they not reached the agreement, the books would have been
put onto the street, as is done with property from an evicted building. The
amount of books would be left on the street to get wet and become a mess,
Kalageorgi said.
``It's a lot of books. Putting them out on the street is just an
extreme public nuisance," Kalageorgi said. ``It would create mountains of
books."
While the Sheriff's Office was threatening to burn the books,
Kalageorgi said he was skeptical that it would have actually happened.
``It's appalling this is even contemplated of being done," he said.
``On the other hand, I'm sure people would come to their senses and it
wouldn't have been done."
******
#7
Kommersant
No. 42
March 13, 2002
PUTIN TO APPOINT GOVERNORS
By Irina NAGORNYKH
On March 12, central election commission head Alexander
Veshnyakov declared that this year the president may get
additional rights to appoint heads of Federation members. The
deputies of Duma centrist factions and the central election
commission will work together for the application of this norm
in case elections in regions are recognized invalid.
Alexander Veshnyakov and Duma deputies actively negotiated
amendments to the law "On the main guarantees of election
rights and the right to take part in the a referendum of the
citizens of the Russian Federation." The central election
commission backed the initiative of centrist factions on the
introduction of the norm of electors' turn-out in regional
elections, although it used to turn this idea down until now.
Alexander Veshnyakov said that he was prepared to back the
centrists' idea, but in a compromise variant: holding regional
elections after the so-called presidential pattern - fixing
electors' turn-out at the level of 50% of those who have come
to polling stations, with elections being held in two rounds.
In case electors' turn-out is less than 50% and elections are
recognized invalid, Veshnyakov proposed to give the president
the right to appoint governors for a term of two years upon
agreement with regional parliaments. Veshnyakov considers that
the president's right to appoint governors is not at variance
with the constitution, although the full list of his powers
does not contain this right.
Since 1998, elections in 33 regions have been held with a
less than 50% turn-out. If the amendments proposed by the
centrists were in force, governors appointed by the president
would have worked in these regions. However, the supporters of
the amendment are not embarrassed by this circumstance.
Centrist factions are prepared to formulate and formally make
the amendment on elections after the presidential pattern with
the support of the central election commission, said Oleg
Morozov, a member of the centrist coordinating council and head
of the parliamentary group "Russian Regions."
******
#8
COMMENTARY: LAND--RUSSIA'S ETERNAL QUESTION
MOSCOW, March 13 /from Yuri Filippov, RIA Novosti political analyst/ -
Farmland is one of the few Russian immovables staying immune to market
patterns to this day--juridically immune, to be more precise.
As things really are, thousands of enterprising private farmers sell,
purchase, lease, inherit or donate land plots to prove the validity of their
transactions by the federal Constitution without waiting for a respective
federal law to appear. Tomorrow's cabinet session will discuss a bill "On
Farmland Turnover in the Russian Federation".
More than 60% of Russian farmland is in private holding by now, say
statistics. Does it mean that the long-awaited bill will merely fill in a
legislative gap in a practical arrangement well underway?
That is true only in part, considering an essential importance of the land
issue in Russia's public mentality. It is, all too often, a basis on which
politics are made, to say nothing of economic developments and the mode of
life. Grassroot hopes for a better future are closely tied in with landed
property, for that matter. Russia went through three revolutions in the 20th
century--and arable land was what their mottos revolved round. Later on, too,
the issue stayed in the focus of the public mind.
Russia met the 21st century with utterly new concepts of landed relations.
Those concepts, again, were revolutionary, in a sense as the Land Code, which
entered into force quite recently, regards land on a par with any other
object of the civil law and so overturns the ideas of land and landholding
relations which took firm root within the Soviet decades.
The Land Code is not dotting all i's and crossing all t's in the crucial
matter. It regulates the turnover of a mere 2%--believe it or not--of Russian
lands--such whose removal from the commercial turnover thwarts whatever
sizable market-oriented endeavours, meaning urban and industrial plots.
Farmland exceeds that area 14-fold. Russia has 406 million hectares of arable
land--a fantastic wealth whose thrifty use will suffice to make every family
affluent.
If Russia brings its land reform to a success, that reform may have a no
smaller impact on political and economic arrangements than the restructuring
of all natural monopolies put together. Responsible and rational attitudes to
the land we live on forms our personality. If we Russians involve land in the
market turnover we shall get mentally closer to other European countries,
which regard land as merely one, those essential, of the many aspects of
routine personal contacts. Land can be sold and bought, exchanged plot for
plot or another commodity, or, again, received as gift--provided all that is
done in compliance with the law.
Many practical questions have to find their answer before Russia forms a
civilised attitude to land. To what an extent is the state to take part in
arranging land turnover? What land purchasing limitations ought to go without
saying? What are we to regard as farmland misuse, and what should be the
terms for land confiscated from the culprit holder? What rights land
shareholders are to enjoy? That is an essential matter as such
holders--former collective and state farmers--account for 90% of Russian
landholders. Last but not least, are foreigners to be involved in Russian
farmland transactions?
Upcoming government and ensuing parliamentary debates are expected to clarify
many of those questions, and even cancel some. The State Duma, parliament's
lower house, is ready with a package of land bill.
We are not to think, however, that those crucial questions will soon be
settled, what with centuries-long antecedents of the Russian land issue. What
matters most now is that the matter is being tackled--and we hope we have
taken the right attitude to it.
******
#9
pravda.ru
March 13, 2002
REFORM OF HOUSING AND COMMUNAL SERVICES: “JUST PAY AND YOU WILL BE HAPPY”
Debates about the reform of housing and communal services in Russia are
still continuing. As a matter of fact, everybody admits that something
should be done, for, if the situation does not change to the better in the
nearest future, there will be simply nothing to reform. The main question
is how to carry out the reform without damaging Russian citizens’ incomes.
This dilemma was the subject of all-Russian forum on housing and communal
services, which took place on March 12. In particular, the participants of
the forum discussed the reform’s plans for 2002-2010. There were also some
positive moments at the forum: the best plants of housing and communal
services were awarded.
Though, in general the situation with housing and communal services is far
from being prosperous. According to the first deputy chairman of State
Construction Committee of the RF (Gosstroy), Sergei Kruglik the total
square of tumbledown dwellings in Russia increased twice within recent 10
years. According to his information, there is over 50 million square metres
of tumbledown dwellings, which makes about 2 percent of the whole housing
resources of the country. About 2 million people live in almost ruined
houses, while number of breakdowns in communal sphere increased 5 times.
S.Kruglikov expressed on the forum the government’s position, that the
situation could be bettered through 100-percent payments for communal
services, which must be introduced as soon as possible.
This idea is not new from Russian functionaries, as well as that pensioners
and disabled persons will receive subsidies to pay for their flats.
According to Kruglik, the 100-percent payments for housing and communal
services could allow to yearly save about 60 billion rubles (2 billion
dollars) for budgets of all levels since the year 2004. In this way, in
2002-2010 about 514 billion rubles (approximately 17 billion dollars) could
be released in budget system of Russia, what practically corresponds with
possible expends for housing and communal services.
Of course, this idea is great, both in words and on the paper. Moreover,
this tradition of equal payments for communal service should be cancelled.
Though, is there a guarantee that immortal Russian principle “We did the
best – you see the rest” will not be put into practice?
For the time being, nobody could explain how the communal services would
start to work better, if even most of Russian citizens pay fully for their
flats. Because plants of housing and communal services have always been
monopolists in their sphere.
Who could compete with them, if many houses in Russia are in a very bad
condition? A private businessman will be a bankrupt soon, only supplying
water pipes and paints. Though, in principle, the state could render
assistance to a brave person, if such manifests. For example, through
decreasing taxes for some time for businessmen who invest money in housing
and communal services plants. On the other hand, who knows, probably
dwellers of some houses should be then protected from these businessmen.
And if such a businessman decides to collect debts for communal service by
force? In this case, who is right?
It is well known that communal services’ prices grow several times a year.
But nobody could notice that the service’s is getting better. Even on the
contrary, in some regions of Russia, plants of housing and communal
services stopped to exist at all. Therefore, the question is not only about
communal service price, but about something else.
Though, at the moment it looks like the government prefers to shoulder on
average citizens the burden of the reform. Finally, the citizens will pay
the prescribed 100 percent. The only question is, who will feel better as a
result?
Vasily Bubnov
PRAVDA.Ru
Translated by Vera Solovieva
*******
#10
Moscow Times
March 14, 2002
Bomb Makers' Trade Union
By Pavel Felgenhauer
The recent disclosure of a secret Pentagon report naming Russia as a prime
target of possible U.S. nuclear attack -- together with China, Iraq, Iran,
North Korea, Syria and Libya -- caused a lot of noise in the West but not
much of a stir in Russia.
Two weeks ago the press, the public and the political elite in Moscow went
ballistic over an alleged U.S.-led plot to deprive Russian athletes of gold
medals at the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. Then the planned deployment
of U.S. military instructors in Georgia caused uproar in Moscow. So why
didn't Moscow get enraged when finally it seemed to have serious reason to?
Most likely, Russian intelligence agents got a copy of the Pentagon-produced
Nuclear Posture Review much earlier than its publication in the Los Angeles
Times so the Kremlin had time to evaluate the document. It's also possible
that many in Moscow actually liked what they found in the text.
That the Pentagon is still targeting Russia more than 10 years after the end
of the Cold War is indeed not big news for the Russian military. Russia is
the only country in the world that could obliterate the United States at any
time in a volley of thousands of warheads. Today, such an attack seems almost
impossible, but still it could happen.
In 1994, Moscow and Washington signed an agreement to target their warheads
away from each other. But the military in both countries always suggest in
private that this "detargeting" is superficial. It's understood that both
sides preserve and update lists of primary targets on the other's territory.
In fact, target lists are on computer disks in nuclear command centers in
Russia and the United States that work 24 hours a day. The targets and launch
orders can be instantly wired into on-board computers of land-based ballistic
missiles at the push of a button.
The true novelty of the Nuclear Posture Review is that it indicates the
United States is preparing to deploy a new generation of small and minute
nuclear weapons with low explosive yields -- nuclear bunker-busters and
surgical warheads -- that "reduce collateral damage." It's also proposed that
old Cold War-era warheads be modified so that their explosive yield can be
changed. The idea is that by pressing a button or two, the explosive yield of
a warhead could be decreased from, say, 500 kilotons of TNT to 5 or even 0.5
kilotons. Such a warhead could be used to destroy a terrorist target in
Central Asia or the Middle East.
Russian military sources suggest that "surgical" low-yield nukes have been
researched and developed by U.S. bomb-makers for many years, but now these
plans have been given higher priority by the emergence of new threats. Small
nukes could be used in local conflicts or antiterrorist operations to destroy
enemies hiding in deep caves and bunkers. In Afghanistan, U.S. forces have
been extensively using conventional incendiary bombs to hit underground
targets, but nukes are clearly more effective.
The deployment and possible use by the U.S. military of new battlefield nukes
may drastically lower the nuclear threshold and trigger numerous local and
regional nuclear wars in coming decades. One might think that Russia would
strongly oppose such plans, since most of the potential targets are not far
from its own borders. But in fact the Russian nuclear bomb makers have been
for many years lobbying the Kremlin to deploy their own "surgical"
battlefield nukes.
In April 1999, the Security Council approved a concept for developing and
using non-strategic low- and flexible-yield battlefield weapons. Nuclear
Power Ministry plans speak, using exactly the same language as their U.S.
counterparts, of making new low-yield bunker-busters and of surgical strikes
by bombs with an explosive yield of "just" tens or hundreds of tons of TNT.
Now the Nuclear Posture Review will give Russian bomb makers additional
arguments to press ahead with testing and deployment. If the United States
resumes real nuclear tests to make the new weapons, Russia will soon follow.
Informed sources say the Novaya Zemlya testing range in the Arctic is ready
to resume testing whenever the authorities give the go-ahead.
If the United States actually uses its new surgical nukes in its war on
terrorism, Russia may do the same in Chechnya or somewhere nearby. It seems
bomb makers on both sides of the Atlantic are members of one trade union and
are closely coordinating their moves. It's also clear they do not care much
about the potential fallout.
Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst.
*******
#11
Gazprom Denies Evading Russian Taxes
March 13, 2002
By ANGELA CHARLTON
MOSCOW (AP) - Russian authorities suspect natural gas giant Gazprom of
widespread tax evasion from 1999 through mid-2001, but the the nation's
biggest company - and largest taxpayer - denied it.
The head of the Moscow department of the Federal Tax Police, Viktor
Vasiliyev, said Tuesday that a recent audit found that Gazprom had failed to
pay hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes from January 1999 to July 2001.
He said his agency could sue Gazprom for tax evasion by the end of this
month, according to the tax police press service.
Gazprom, which has long been dogged by allegations of insider dealing and
other dubious financial practices, said in a statement that it denies the
tax-dodging accusations and has presented the tax police with formal
responses to its questions.
``Making public the results of an unfinished audit is not only unethical, it
can also cause damage to the reputation of Gazprom on the domestic and
foreign markets as well as to the reputation of the government, which holds
38.7 percent of shares and a majority on the board,'' Vitaly Savelyev, deputy
chairman of Gazprom, said in the statement.
Gazprom, which supplies more than a quarter of Europe's gas, has been accused
of manipulating the Kremlin to protect its interests at home and abroad.
Russia's biggest company and the world's largest gas producer, Gazprom was
seen in the 1990s as epitomizing the immense power a few tycoons and
companies had garnered over Russia's post-Soviet economy.
President Vladimir Putin sought to boost control over the company's
management by installing an ally to run it last year, and his choice, Alexei
Miller, has pledged to clean up Gazprom's financial reputation.
Investors hope the changes at Gazprom will lead to more accountability and
broader reforms throughout Russia's economy.
The Kommersant and Vedomosti newspapers reported Wednesday that the taxes in
question are on gas export revenues and on gas that Gazprom produced for its
own needs. The reports said Gazprom threatened a countersuit if the tax
police accusations were not retracted within two weeks.
Gazprom's shares fell 8.3 percent on the Russian Stock Market after the tax
police announcement Tuesday.
*******
#12
Chechnya villagers display bodies in protest
By Ron Popeski
MOSCOW, March 13 (Reuters) - Villagers dragged through Chechnya's capital on
Wednesday the charred remains of what they said were victims of a rampage by
Russian soldiers, prompting local officials to launch an investigation into
the allegations.
Russia's military denied any wrongdoing during operations last week to root
out separatist rebels in mountainous districts south of the capital Grozny. A
spokesman said the villagers had been paid to stage the demonstration.
Russian television showed hundreds of people from the village of Stariye
Atagi staging what officials said was an illegal protest outside the
headquarters of Chechnya's pro-Russian local government.
Soldiers stood by as the protesters, many of them elderly, waved their arms
in fits of tears and hysteria.
A number of blackened bodies were displayed outside the building, where they
were laying on sheets and carpets. At least one charred corpse was entangled
in the twisted wreck of a car.
"An armoured car ran over the car and it was then set on fire," one
unidentified villager in his thirties told NTV. "Four others were tied up,
thrown into a house and set on fire."
Stariye Atagi was one of several villages where Russian forces said they
killed 10 insurgents and detained more than 80 people in a "special
operation" last weekend to root out rebels.
A similar operation was also conducted in the village -- a favourite
guerrilla haunt -- during the last Russian offensive through the mountainous
region over the New Year holidays.
Human rights groups complain of excessive violence during such operations,
particularly detentions and beatings of young men. German newspapers reported
this week that Russia's military was still conducting systematic torture and
illegal executions.
Stanislav Ilyasov, prime minister of the local government, told Russian
television after a 40-minute meeting with village elders that a team of
investigators had been dispatched to investigate the scene, about 20 km (12
miles) south of Grozny.
"They will deal with this and establish who is guilty," Ilyasov said. "It is
in everyone's interest that we deal with this thoroughly."
VILLAGERS "PAID TO DEMONSTRATE"
But Ilya Shabalkin, a senior military official in Chechnya, told Russian
television that the villagers had been "paid to do this. They paraded the
bodies of dead fighters whom they refused to bury in their own village
because they were bandits."
Alexander Zdanovich, a spokesman for the FSB domestic intelligence agency
which oversees Russia's Chechnya campaign, also ruled out any excesses in an
operation he said had led to the capture of several prominent rebel fighters.
He said fighters had been killed after barricading themselves into a house
and security forces had not retrieved the bodies immediately. A check by
prosecutors, he said, had revealed no complaints about the troops'
activities.
Russian forces returned to Chechnya in 1999 to crush separatists three years
after a 1994-96 war ended in a humiliating retreat from the region on
Russia's southern fringe.
With Russian losses in the second war standing at more than 3,000, President
Vladimir Putin and other officials say the forces control the entire region,
but they are constantly subject to ambushes and attack.
Criticism of Russian actions died down after the September suicide airliner
attacks in the United States, when Washington and other Western capitals
accepted the Kremlin's contention that rebels had links with Osama bin
Laden's al Qaeda network.
Russian news reports try to portray life as returning to normal, with
Ilyasov's government trying to persuade more than 100,000 refugees to return
to Chechnya from nearby regions.
*******
#13
REPORTS ON SHOT STARYE ATAGI VILLAGERS IN CHECHNYA IS A PROVOCATION AGAINST
FEDERAL FORCE
KHANKALA, March 13. /From a RIA Novosti correspondent/ -- General Alexander
Zdanovich, official representative of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of
Russia, has called "a pre-planned provocation against the federal forces" the
reports on ostensible shooting of villagers of Starye Atagi in Chechnya.
In real fact burnt bodies of militants have been brought to the Chechen
capital Grozny, Zdanovich said.
In a RIA Novosti interview, Alexander Zdanovich said that on March 5 through
11 in the village of Starye Atagi federal forces were conducting a special
pinpoint operation intended to destroy the bandit groups of Rezvan Akhmadov
and Issi Sadaev.
On March 7 a fight against one of these groups was held. Militants showed
fierce resistance to the federal forces. During the drawn-out fight the
group, which was entrenched in a building, was destroyed by a Shmel
flame-thrower. The building was partly destroyed.
Five Kalashnikov submachine guns, one pistol, seven grenades, two antitank
grenade-throwers RTG-18 were seized on the site. At night the bodies of
militants could not be taken from under the ruins and could not be
identified.
During the night assistants of the killed bandits found their bodies and hid
them.
On March 9 on the outskirts of Starye Atagi another four bandits in an
automobile were also destroyed by Shmel for showing active resistance. Their
burnt bodies and those which had previously been removed from the ruins were
secretly taken out of the village into Grozny, where they were shown as a
"proof" of the federal forces' "atrocities" against Starye Atagi civilians.
"I personally was present in this operation", said Alexander Zdanovich. "I
wholly confirm the correctness and legality of actions by the federal units".
Another confirmation is the report signed by the chief of the administration
of Starye Atagi. He assured he had no claims to the conduct of this operation
by the federal forces.
"Village elders thanked for the destruction of the bandits, which terrorised
villagers", said Zdanovich.
Alexander Zdanovich also said that in answer to the yesterday's special
operation bandits blasted an armoured car and a Kamaz truck near the Starye
and Novye Atagi villages. Two Chechen locals were killed. Ten servicemen were
wounded.
Alexander Zdanovich was indignant over the provocation staged, which followed
after the terrorist acts.
*******
#14
Vremya MN
No. 35
2002
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
ANALYTICAL FORECAST FOR SOCIAL TENSIONS IN 2002
Analysis of publications in the open press makes it
possible to forecast the emergence of crisis situations in the
life of society. The author of the article, a systems analyst,
has been conducting such studies for ten years by using
mathematical models. The aim of forecasting is to draw the
attention of politicians and public organizations to the
potential time and the very fact of the possibility of the
emergence of a crisis situation capable of causing mass
violations of human rights.
Viktor BULGAKOV, chairman of the Russian
committee of the Helsinki Civil Assembly
The Roots of Potential Conflicts in 2002
Due to the obvious financial-economic component of the
conflict in Afghanistan and a certain stabilization of the
western economy in the first six months of 2002, international
tensions caused by accusations of international terrorism are
expected to lessen to a certain extent. The most probable time
of another outburst of "anti-terrorist" activity of the USA is
the end of spring-the beginning of summer.
The decisions of authorities in the field of reaching
consensus with Russia's civil society are rather peculiar. On
the one hand, the idea of creating a Civil Forum is being
implemented, while on the other - persecutions of citizens for
their civil position are still common practice and are even
growing. The most graphic examples are a rather dubious ruling
by a regional court of law on the Grigory Pasko case, which
caused repercussions throughout the world, and placing of the
question of pardon within the competence of regional
authorities. These measures discredit central authorities, on
which thousands of ordinary Russians, subjected to
departmental and regional arbitrariness will stop count. These
are ordinary people because they have no means of influencing
law-enforcement agencies.
Combined with continuing infringements on the interests of the
population of remote areas, a constant threat of a fall in
incomes due to a higher cost of public utilities and a forcible
eviction of insolvent citizens to shabby housing, this can
steal 25-30% of the vote in elections and cause serious social
instability.
Three Peaks of Tensions
The general character of change in tensions from January
to December 2002 points to three clearly expressed peaks:
- at the end of March-April;
- at the end of June- July;
- in December (most probably, in the latter half).
The public's assessment of the country's current leaders
will remain favorable until the latter half of 2002. Then, most
probably, it will begin to change radically. It is not ruled
out that this, combined with other circumstances, determines
the growth of tensions in June-July. There are also individual
forerunners of change in mass conscience. Say, over the past
year, the rating of the Kremlin's chief of staff Alexander
Voloshin has grown, coming close to Putin's. These are the
results of a poll conducted by the public opinion research
center Glas Naroda. It does not matter that the point at issue
is Voloshin. What really matters is the very fact of the
narrowing gap between the first person in Russia and a
politician who is the closest to him in rating, whatever his
name may be and whomever he may represent. This proves that
there are doubts as to the lack of alternatives to one's choice.
Social Policy
The nation's biogenetic potential, which plummeted in the
past decade, continues to fall. The social policy pursued in
2001 slightly improved it. Probably, by the results of this
year, the ratio between birth and death rates in Russia will be
slightly more favorable and the condition of qualified
specialists of some technical professions will somewhat improve.
The hope for a certain improvement of the situation as a
result of social programs may appear only in the latter half of
the year. The influence of the factor of the nation's
psychophysical exhaustion may become particularly strong by
late summer.
In connection with this, one should expect a growth in the
influence of political parties, whose electorate has a large
share of citizens from desocialized groups of the population,
first of all - the LDPR.
Education
In the near future, the factor of the degradation of
public education, caused by changes in the social and cultural
orientation of children and young people is likely to become
the most alarming.
This was proved by another research conducted by the
Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). In
ability to work with a written text - understand and analyze
it, single out the main points and use the information obtained
in further work - 15-year-old Russians occupy one of the last
places among their coevals from 32 countries. This is a
catastrophe, because degradation in this field is not just a
fact but a tendency. OECD spokesman for education Andreas
Schleicher said:
"At the beginning of the 1990s, when the first such research
was conducted, Russia topped the list. In 1995, Russia was
still in the first third of the list, whereas now - at the very
bottom." It is time society recall that apart from respectable
lawyers, psychologists, businessmen and bodyguards, there are
also a lot of professions vitally needed by a state, without
which, just like without comprehensive and mass education in
general, it turns into a notorious "banana republic," only in
our case - without bananas.
However, things will not change for the better as long as
a set (not a system!) of values, which consists of a limited
number of consumer preferences, will continue to take root,
instead of a system of values abolished by fiat and destroyed
by reality.
The Church
Constant attempts to involve the Church into the process
of creating an alternative system of values as a moral support
in society cause some doubts, because they often produce the
opposite result. Financially dependent, the Church itself is
being involved at all levels in secular life, compromising the
ideas and principles proclaimed by it. As it is officially
affirming itself in society, it is increasingly losing on the
one hand, intellectuals, who clearly see that the Church, as a
public institution, does not correspond to the idea of the
Gospel, and on the other - ordinary people, who see church
hierarchs even of a local scale drive limousines, which
ordinary people cannot afford.
In actual fact, in recent years all social structures,
which have been trying in one way or another to set the public
an aim which is an alternative to communism, have been either
compromising themselves or degenerating. Probably, the new way
of life just has not yet given most people the basis for
formulating the ideas of the good and the evil in the form of a
system of socially acceptable values.
This phenomenon is proved by reports for 2001. Suffice it
to recall that FSB director Nikolai Patrushev stressed the
importance of interaction between the military and the Church
"from the viewpoint of national unification" after meeting the
leaders of the board of guardians of the All-Russian National
Military Fund in the Patriarch's residence. For his part, Alexy
II said then that "the Fund has come up against some
difficulties, in particular, in taxation and these problems are
being solved now."
Is this good or bad? Let us imagine a church hierarch
discussing corroboration with the KGB in Soviet times. What
would we say in this case? I believe that the public is saying
exactly this. Moreover, I am sure that this does not contribute
to improving the psychological climate in society.
Army
As distinct from the last year, the influence of the
"army" factor in 2002 is highly perceptible and specific. Any
serious change in its influence leads to a fall or lowering of
the level of tensions during the former half of the year and
from the middle of the year - to a stable and fast growth of
tensions, whose peak will fall on November. The only
explanation that offers itself is: in the latter half of the
year the role of the army in ensuring social stability will
grow, which will require utmost effort to ensure a sensible and
commensurate control in this field. What factors could be
brought into play in this case?
The point at issue is arms production and sales, control over
arms stocks, control over the army as such, the legal and
social status of servicemen, international conflicts in the
sphere of Russia's geopolitical interests and conflicts in
so-called "hot spots."
Economics
The macroeconomic component has again gained in strength
as a factor regulating the level of tensions. Obviously, this
points to a marked growth in manufacturing high-tech
industries, which are a powerful socium-forming instrument, and
the growing role of the public sector of the economy. It stands
to reason that a dramatic growth will cause social tensions.
These resembles one of the characteristics of the
administrative economy or the recent crisis in Argentina: the
lowering of the level of tensions by the year end would have
been striking if a social-economic catastrophe would not have
followed as early as the first months of the year. However, it
seems that a certain optimal variant could be found: say,
innovation costs could be intensified by another half.
Foreign Policy
Evidently, such an optimal variant could be found in
international relations, too. Both, ruling out the influence of
this factor on the level of tension and its growth lead to the
same result: a higher level of tension. The preservation of the
optimal balance of the international factor's contribution to
tension is most probably due to both the successes of Russian
foreign-policy structures and the current international
situation, which will be favorable to Russia until the middle
of 2002.
This may be a consequence of a relative stabilization
after the general economic decline, first of all, in the USA
and the west's interest in coordinating its foreign-policy
efforts with Russia in the new geopolitical reality, which
formed in 2001.
Internal Policy
The achievement of a stabilizing effect as a result of
internal political compromises may bring about a marked
decrease in tensions in December but will not influence the
situation in mid- or late summer.
The national factor is still a source of tension. Two
states of the national idea are being modelled - patriotism
(not chauvinism or jingoism), but patriotism as a person's
self- respect, which makes him respect other people) and
national- extremism.
The changes in tensions being forecast for 2002 point to
the existence of rather serious problems of national-extremism
and regionalism. The latter factor retains its influence,
despite a number of obvious and not unsuccessful, although not
always correct, steps made by the federal center to reduce it.
Regrettably, we have practically no examples of progress in the
field of human rights at the regional level, while there are a
lot of examples to the contrary.
Secret Services
Secret services will play just an auxiliary role until the
fourth quarter of the year, despite a wide-spread opinion to
the contrary. Then, in late October, some events will make them
resume their activities. It is not ruled out that this will be
due to structural and personnel changes. In general, the social
and power status of secret services will resemble more and more
the position of the KGB in the latter half of the 1980s, i.e.,
it will depend on the top leaders (the presidential
administration, the leading party).
General Assessment
The whole process of the development of social tensions in
2002 can be divided into two clearly different periods. In the
first six months of the year, social stability will still be
based mainly on mass self-conscience. After that, simple ideas
about justice will begin to gradually give way to the awareness
of difficulty in implementing them. The awareness of positive
changes will hardly become mass by this time, which means that
from the latter half of the year, the country's current leaders
will be coming up against more and more serious social problems.
In the economy, difficulties related to its
intensification may arise in this period. In politics, this is
an extremely unfavorable period from the point of view of
forming a base for a potential conflict between state
structures and citizens, as well as inter-party conflicts. A
tentative analysis makes it possible to suppose that the Right
parties will make the main contribution to tensions. At the
same time, problems may arise in the federal center's relations
with regions and part of the business elite ("oligarchs"). An
important point to note is that the political coalitions to be
formed in this period are also likely to contribute to
heightening tensions.
Preventive Measures
Russia should make efforts to ensure its independent
economic development in case of a global economic crisis. As
soon as economic activity, spurred on by the war and cataclysms
of 2001, slows down, the signs of such crisis will be quick to
appear again. Just as a year ago, such program should be based
on multi-polar economic orientation, balanced structures inside
the Russian economy, the state's active influence on a sped-up
development of production, especially in high-tech and basic
industries. The first version of the 2003 budget should be
submitted for discussion as early as possible. It should be
accompanied by a program for the foreseeable future and include
clear-cut adjustments in social programs. It should single out
top state priorities and define the main mechanisms of
interaction between the public and private sectors in
industrial and economic development. An open discussion in the
press, launched in advance, will make it possible to find out
citizens' preferences and make them feel involved at least in
the discussion of society's vital problems at the state level,
if not their solution.
Analysis of information shows that legislative amendments
still do not reach law-enforcement agencies. As a result of
communication with power agencies, most ordinary citizens lose
trust in authorities. This situation has been existing
throughout the past few years, constantly provoking reaction on
the part of citizens.
In the light of this, it is worth noting the importance of
depoliticizing state, especially power structures. It is
important to prevent members of one political party from
concentrating in them.
It is extremely important to prevent power from being
divided between regions, preserving all the elements of
federalism. Particular attention should be paid to providing
ordinary citizens in any region with an opportunity to get
prompt and efficient assistance from the federal center in case
of violation of their rights.
The main forms of human rights violations in the
foreseeable period, just like in two previous ones, will be:
military conflicts, persecutions for party-political activity
and what is most important, conflicts ensuing from
property-legal stratification.
The threat of an extended interpretation and
"irresponsible use" of the notions "terrorism" and "a call for
a forcible change of the constitutional system" remains. It is
to be recalled that such violations may involve in
confrontation with authorities considerable masses of not
indifferent, active and independently thinking people who,
under a different approach, could be involved in the efforts to
transform life in Russia.
******
#15
Russia: Moscow's Rift Widens With OPEC
By Michael Lelyveld
A Russian oil baron has called on the government to spurn OPEC's request for
an extension of export curbs to prop up oil prices. The stand reflects the
growing power of independent producers as Russia seeks to recapture the
Soviet share of the world oil market.
Boston, 13 March 2002 (RFE/RL) -- Russia's top private oil executive
yesterday called for a public break with the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) over demands that the country continue to limit
its exports of oil.
Writing in the London-based "Financial Times," Mikhail Khodorkovsky, head of
Russia's Yukos oil company, said the government "should act with
determination and decisiveness and say no to OPEC's demands." The statement
by the chief executive of Russia's second-largest oil company appeared to
mark a new level of open conflict with OPEC, as well as assertiveness by
independent producers.
Russia's biggest oil company, LUKoil, has supported first-quarter export cuts
announced by the government, which controls 15.5 percent of the firm. But
Yukos, which has grown far faster than LUKoil, has already announced plans to
boost output by over 24 percent in 2002. Those plans, made public in
December, were a sign that Russia's pledge to lower exports by 150,000
barrels per day would not be honored for long, if at all. The Yukos increase
is nearly double the amount of the promised reduction, even before other
producers are taken into account.
Reuters reported this week that Russian companies have increased their rail
and ocean exports to get around the pipelines that were the only subject of
the government pledge. Huge rises have also been reported in refined-product
exports.
In recent days, top OPEC officials have renewed their frequent visits to
Moscow in hopes that the government will extend its pledge past March to keep
oil prices firm. An OPEC meeting on 15 March in Vienna is likely to decide
that the 11 participating nations in the cartel cannot take more cuts on
their own.
Venezuelan Energy Minister Alvaro Silva Calderon was received yesterday by
his Russian counterpart, Igor Yusufov, but he left with nothing concrete.
Khodorkovsky suggested that if OPEC had gone beyond polite requests, it would
have been shown the door.
Khodorkovsky wrote: "OPEC and Russia have so far avoided a dispute. But we
shall surely not be able to prevent one for long. It will remain like this as
long as OPEC assumes that it can continue to act as producer, exporter and
global regulator all in one."
While calling for cooperation and coordination with OPEC, Khodorkovsky openly
blasted the cartel, saying, "Its market-rigging tactics have resulted in
volatility, not price stability."
As an independent, Khodorkovsky appears to be saying what the government will
not. Russia has kept up the fiction of cooperation with OPEC for years. A
declared conflict could have consequences in the Middle East, where every oil
dollar that goes to Russia may come out of government revenues.
But Russia has now invested a big part of the proceeds of its economic
recovery in future oil production and the prospect of taking back the world
market share that the Soviet Union once held.
Khodorkovsky made clear that his investments in Siberia cannot be turned on
and off like a tap. He said, "It is impossible simply to close the pipelines
and wait 18 months until the price changes -- the dormant wells would freeze
up and be completely destroyed in the bitter cold of the Russian winter."
But Khodorkovsky's logic seems to turn naive when he calls for cooperation
with OPEC "to develop procedures for regulating production in the medium
term." Khodorkovsky said, "Production levels should be established for a
period of between three to five years, helping supplies to become more
predictable and giving consumers and producers greater protection against
external shocks." In other words, he would like to reduce his investment risk.
That goal is understandable, considering Russia's catastrophic experience
with plunging oil prices and the ruble crash of 1998. But after the latest
crisis, the September attacks on the United States, few analysts were able to
predict whether oil prices would rise or fall.
While fear of war pushed prices up, fear of recession pulled them down even
more. When the threat to oil supplies failed to materialize, prices fell
again.
In the past week, worry about a possible war with Iraq has driven prices up
over $23 per barrel once more. But figures from the International Energy
Agency indicate that worldwide demand has been flat for the past year. Even
though prices have risen, OPEC fears another drop.
In the end, there is no way to keep outside forces from upsetting the market
and the best-laid plans. Whether it breaks with OPEC or not, the market will
not be Russia's to control.
******
#16
ORT Review
www.ortv.ru
Compiled by Luba Schwartzman (luba7@bu.edu)
Research fellow at the Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology and
Policy at Boston University
HEADLINES,
Wednesday, March 13, 2002
- One year and more than 400 corrections after the first reading, the
Russian State Duma accepted a bill on mandatory car insurance in the second
reading. If passes in the next and final reading, is accepted by the
Federation Council and signed by the president, the laws will go into effect
on July 1st, 2003.
- In Omsk, only one out of five cars is insured -- most drivers prefer to
settle problems on their own. Rates currently run about $100 a year; experts
estimate that once it becomes mandatory, the cost will decrease.
- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov is finishing up his official visit
to Washington. Earlier today he met with US President George W. Bush and
attended discussions with representatives of the US Army and special
services.
- One sailor died and five are missing after the A. M. Vella ship collided
with a cargo ship from Singapore near the Port of Hong Kong. A search and
rescue effort will continue for at least 2 more days. None of the 23
sailors from the other vessel were injured.
- The Kursk nuclear submarine has been transferred to the jurisdiction of
the North Fleet. The investigators have completed their work. Roslyakovo
dockworkers will now prepare the submarine for transport to the Nerpa
shipbuilding factory.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov
to discuss national economic development over the first two months of the
current year. Prime Minister Kasyanov also briefed the president on his
trips to Minsk and to Kaliningrad.
- President Putin signed a decree establishing 300 2-year grants for
scientific research. The first grants will be awarded at the start of the
next year.
- President Putin congratulated the staff and the readers of Izvestia on the
newspaper’s 85th anniversary.
- In Irkutsk, 60 women and 30 newborn babies were evacuated from the
maternity ward of a hospital that caught fire earlier today. According to
an investigator, the fire was caused by a short circuit along the
electricity line on the second floor. The hospital will now need to be
completely renovated.
- Several dozen picketers blocked the entrance to the territory of Grozny’s
administrative complex. They demand an investigation of the murder of seven
civilians during a special operation that took place on March 7th.
- Federation Council Chairman Sergei Mironov announced that he will
definitely meet with Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat. He
explained that he made the decision to cancel the meeting on his own, and
added that his choice will benefit the Palestinian people.
- Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov spoke to State Duma deputies and refuted
rumors that Russia and Japan are secretly negotiating the future of the
Kurile Islands. He explained that only border-troop positioning is being
discussed.
- The State Duma also reviewed a bill banning beer advertisement on
television.
- Interim leader of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai is wrapping up his visit to
Russia. Today he met with Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov, State
Duma Chairman Gennady Seleznev and representatives of the Afghan diaspora in
Russia.
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