Johnson's Russia List
#6123
9 March 2002
davidjohnson@erols.com
A CDI Project
www.cdi.org
[Note from David Johnson:
1. Reuters: U.S. fires new salvo in trade clash with Russia.
2. Reuters: Chechen rebel leader wants war crimes tribunal.
3. Luba Schwartzman: ORT Review.
4. Reuters: Chubais sees no Russian role in 1999 blasts.
5. AFP: Caspian Sea caviar ban lifted after countries join sturgeon quotas.
6. Itar-Tass: Russian president says more women needed in politics.
7. BBC Monitoring: Russian designer advises Lyudmila Putin on clothes and
make-up.
8. RFE/RL: Religions In Post-Soviet States "Emasculated"
9. The Jamestown Foundation PRISM: Aleksandr Tsipko, RUSSIA ON THE BRINK
OF A SYSTEMIC CRISIS.
10. New York Times: Celestine Bohlen, A Little Russia on the Hudson.
11. RFE/RL: Michael Lelyveld, Russia: Inflationary Pressure Eases As Oil
Prices Continue To Slide.]
*******
#1
U.S. fires new salvo in trade clash with Russia
By Elaine Monaghan
WASHINGTON, March 8 (Reuters) - The United States fired a new salvo in its
chickens-and-steel clash with Russia on Friday, saying Moscow had no
grounds for banning U.S. poultry and declaring its own steel tariffs
virtually harmless to Russia.
Secretary of State Colin Powell discussed the issue with Russian Foreign
Minister Igor Ivanov on Friday "because we've been very disappointed by
Russia's precipitous ban on U.S. poultry exports," State Department
spokesman Richard Boucher said.
"We're very concerned that the ban is not based on legitimate safety
considerations," he added, referring to a block announced last Friday on
U.S. chicken and turkey meat for import violations and the use of drugs
banned by Moscow.
Russia's move came amid expectations of big steel import tariffs that
President George W. Bush announced on Tuesday, provoking protests around
the world.
The Russian Agriculture Ministry accused U.S. importers of repeatedly
bringing in poultry meat without a license from the Russian veterinary
department, with incorrect package markings or without certificates proving
their safety.
It said it had stopped issuing U.S. import licenses immediately and that
products unloaded before Sunday, when a full ban is due to take effect,
would only be allowed if "the necessary veterinary requirements are
observed."
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick subsequently slammed the move,
saying, "There's a lot of Americans eating chicken and they don't seem to
be too sick."
He said he told Russia's ambassador that failure to scrap the threat to
half of U.S. poultry exports would hurt Russia's chances of getting
smoother access to radically reduced import tariff levels enjoyed by most
U.S. trade partners.
Moscow has pushed hard for the removal of the so-called Jackson-Vanik
amendment that was imposed in 1974 because of Soviet restrictions on
emigration.
The dispute comes at a time of improving relations between the former Cold
War foes due to a joint focus on terrorism, although U.S. plans to send
army instructors to the former Soviet republic of Georgia have ruffled
Moscow's feathers.
Boucher said Russia's move would hurt American producers severely and limit
choice and increase costs for Russians.
But Bush's tariffs of up to 30 percent on steel would only affect $140
million worth of Russia's exports to the United States of more than $6.5
billion, Boucher said.
"Under the tariff rate quota established for slab steel, Russia will
continue to be able to ship slab, its single largest steel export, at
recent levels to the United States free from additional tariffs," he added.
The Russian government has estimated the new tariffs would cost the country
$400 million to $500 million a year in revenues.
Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said on Wednesday that Russia might back
down on the poultry ban if U.S. documents satisfied agriculture officials.
Boucher said the United States had provided detailed technical information
and was ready for consultations.
"Food safety is a top concern for the U.S. government and all foods
processed in the United States must conform to strict safety standards," he
added.
"Under international trading rules, to which Russia plans to accede, any
actions taken against imports on the basis of food safety must be
scientifically justified," he added.
The United States has backed Russia's efforts to join the World Trade
Organization, although Zoellick suggested recently it could take years of
work to get there.
*******
#2
INTERVIEW-Chechen rebel leader wants war crimes tribunal
By Karl Emerick Hanuska
AMSTERDAM, March 8 (Reuters) - The Chechen rebel leadership is pushing for
the creation of a war crimes tribunal like that for the former Yugoslavia
to try alleged atrocities by Russian forces, a senior Chechen
representative said on Friday.
"Those who committed genocide against the Chechen people must answer for
their crimes. A forum for this is our key goal," Akhmed Zakayev, chief
envoy of the breakaway region's president Aslan Maskhadov, told Reuters in
a rare face-to-face interview.
He was speaking in Amsterdam a day after meeting Carla Del Ponte, the chief
prosecutor at the Hague Yugoslav war crimes tribunal. The chances of Russia
agreeing to subject itself to a similar United Nations institution,
however, are slim.
Chechnya is in its second war in a decade and Maskhadov, elected in 1997
after forcing the Russian army to withdraw, has been waging a guerrilla
campaign against troops sent back into the province in 1999 when the
Kremlin blamed Chechens for bombings that killed over 300 people in Moscow
and other cities.
Chechen officials charge that Russian security forces rigged the blasts
themselves as an excuse to invade the region, which remained formally part
of Russia but de facto a separate entity.
Moscow has accused Muslim Chechen leaders of being allied with Islamic
militants like Osama bin Laden, which they deny.
"No matter what the war's outcome is and whether or not we are acknowledged
as an independent state, the Chechen people must be guaranteed the same
human rights as anyone else in Europe," said Zakayev, a bearded,
soft-spoken former actor.
He said the talks with Del Ponte were purely "consultative," part of a
series of steps to get the international community involved in ending
violence in Chechnya, where tens of thousands have died since the first war
began in late 1994.
Chechens have long called for a greater international role in a conflict
that Moscow says is a purely internal matter.
RUSSIAN ANGER
Russia, which rallied behind the U.S. war in Afghanistan after drawing
parallels between the September 11 attacks and its own problems in
Chechnya, protested in January when officials in Washington, London and
Paris met Maskhadov's envoys.
The creation of a U.N. institution comparable to the Hague tribunal to deal
with Chechnya is highly improbable given that the court for Yugoslavia was
set up by the U.N. Security Council -- on which Moscow has a permanent
power of veto.
Russia denies systematic abuses by its forces and says any wrongdoing by
individual soldiers is properly investigated and punished. But rights
groups note that few cases are brought to trial and not one Russian
serviceman has yet been convicted.
Zakayev praised Del Ponte, who is Swiss, for what he called courage in
ensuring that the victims of war atrocities had been given the chance to
speak out.
"One can only be overwhelmed by her courage in a sea of hypocrisy," he said
during the interview in Amsterdam.
"This tiny woman like no one before has demonstrated the mettle and the
courage to try and show the world that crimes will not be left unpunished."
Zakayev said he was heartened by the fact the Hague tribunal was now trying
former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic for genocide and crimes
against humanity in the 1990s.
"What I saw there was a man who thought he was untouchable, who considered
himself nearly a god...sitting in the dock. That really gave me hope about
what tomorrow might bring," he said.
But Zakayev faulted Western nations for failing to force a settlement in
Chechnya and said that without the involvement of the international
community there could be no peace there.
"That is what was wrong with Chechnya after the first war. It did not have
the financial or political support to stand up to the security services of
Russia and other nations around the world who were active there," he said.
"We are a part of Europe and so Europe and the rest of the West must be a
part of the solution."
*******
#3
ORT Review
www.ortv.ru
Compiled by Luba Schwartzman (luba7@bu.edu)
Research fellow at the Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology and
Policy at Boston University
HEADLINES,
Friday, March 08, 2002
- International Women’s Day is celebrated throughout Russia. The Soviet
Union was the first country to make March 8th a national holiday. In a
couple of former Soviet Republics the holiday has been reestablished this
year. Out of ideological considerations, the holiday was disregarded for 6
years in Lithuania and for 10 years in Georgia.
- The tradition of celebrating International Women’s Day is also being
rekindled in Afghanistan.
- In Europe, however, some feminists are demanding the cancellation of
International Women’s Day as a part of their quest for equal rights.
- A Turkish vessel illegally fishing in Russia’s water has been detained
near the Port of Novorossiisk.
- A woman and a child died when a remote control landmine was detonated in
the Chechen city of Urus-Martan. Another man was hospitalized with severe
injuries. The landmine was intended for a police car, which passed seconds
earlier.
- Another one of the six prisoners who escaped from the Krasnodar prison has
been arrested. In his two days of freedom Andrei Zhestakov committed two
murders and several robberies. He was arrested as he was trying to steal a
car; he was so drunk that he could not talk.
- The bodies of three border troops who were caught in an avalanche last
night have been found near the Genukh settlement of Daghestan’s Tsuntinsky
region.
- In an interview with the Rustavi-2 television channel, Georgian President
Eduard Shevardnadze admitted that his representatives have made contacts
with Chechen field commander Ruslan Gelayev. Shevardnadze declared that he
does not know whether Gelayev has killed anyone or committed any crimes, but
believes Russia should find him acceptable both as a person and as a
political figure.
- Turkish General Tunzhai Chakan, currently in Tbilisi to discuss upcoming
military exercises of Turkish and Georgian border troops, declared that
Turkey will support an anti-terrorist operation in the Pankisi Gorge.
*******
#4
Chubais sees no Russian role in 1999 blasts
BERLIN, March 8 (Reuters) - Former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Anatoly
Chubais poured scorn on Friday on claims that his country's intelligence
services plotted a series of bombings in 1999 to justify an attack on
Chechnya.
Russian media magnate and former Kremlin insider Boris Berezovsky said this
week in London that Russia's FSB domestic intelligence service had staged
the bombings which killed 300 people.
The explosions were used by the Russian government to justify a new war in
the breakaway Chechen republic and aided President Vladimir Putin's
meteoric rise to power.
"As someone who knows Russian power quite well, I can say that there is no
possibility of an order by Russian secret services for a deal like this,"
Chubais said in Berlin, where he spoke to German business leaders. "I don't
believe this at all."
Chubais was the father of Russia's privatisation programme and served in a
variety of top positions in the 1990s. Although he is no longer in
government, he is a negotiator for Russia on committees dealing with
relations with the European Union and is chairman of the RAO UES Russian
energy system.
Berezovsky, who at first supported Putin but then became his opponent,
lives in self-exile in London to avoid corruption charges in Russia.
"Berezovsky fights until the end, that is his style and I know him very
well," Chubais said.
"His (London news) conference was broadcast widely in Russia, but I think
the real influence of this for Russian political life will be zero."
******
#5
Caspian Sea caviar ban lifted after countries join sturgeon quotas
AFP
March 8, 2002
Four ex-Soviet states around the Caspian Sea were allowed to resume
commercial sturgeon fishing after a UN conservation agency said it had
lifted an eight-month-old ban on caviar traded by the countries.
The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES),
announced that Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan had joined
Iran in a regional agreement on managing stocks of the sturgeon fish, which
produces caviar.
Iran was the only country which had been permitted to carry on fishing
throughout last year in the Caspian, which produced about 95 percent of the
world's caviar supply before the ban on the other states was imposed last
June according to CITES.
"There has been fantastic co-operation by countries that have not
collaborated in the past," CITES Deputy Secretary-General Jim Armstrong said.
For the first time, Caspian Sea's wild sturgeon population is to be managed
through a unified system rather than by competing national systems.
The international ban was lifted in time for the beginning of the sturgeon
fishing season, which coincides with the end of winter.
CITES said it had accepted the five states' proposal for a total quota of
142 tonnes of caviar from five sturgeon species, about 9.6 percent below
the 2001 quota levels.
But Armstrong warned that there was still concern about illegal fishing in
Russia, and called for a drastic reduction in the "enormous" illicit trade
there.
"They must improve on this and put in place a regulation mechanism," he
added.
The ban on the four ex-Soviet states was originally imposed by CITES last
year because it was not satisfied with their management of sturgeon, which
is classified as a grade two endangered species after years of overfishing
depleted stocks of mature fish.
"The resumption in caviar sales will bring in much-needed funding so that
the hatcheries that are so vital to the sturgeons' long-term survival can
be expanded," CITES Secretary-General Willem Wijnstekers said.
His comments went some way to meeting recent criticism of the ban from
Moscow, which had complained that the freeze was hampering attempts to set
up hatcheries to restock the Caspian with young fish.
CITES estimate that with the destruction of natural spawning grounds, about
50 percent of all sturgeon in the Caspian now comes from fish farms.
The agreement gives the countries until June 2002 to set out a long-term
management programme including enforcement and more hatcheries.
Russia is the only country to be allowed caviar exports above its previous
2001 quota, up from 28.2 to 29.4 tonnes in 2002, according to data released
by CITES.
It was also allowed to sell all its remaining registered stocks from the
spring 2001 harvest, along with Kazakhstan.
Iran agreed to the largest cut in its overall quota by 12.4 percent to
75.76 tonnes.
*******
#6
Russian president says more women needed in politics
ITAR-TASS
Moscow, 8 March: President Vladimir Putin has congratulated representatives
of the fair sex on the occasion of International Women's Day celebrated on
8 March.
According to Kremlin tradition, on the eve of Women's Day the head of state
plays host to women in the Kremlin. Last year, he met business women, and
this year, the president greeted teachers and kindergarten personnel. Putin
cordially congratulated the guests and all women of Russia on their behalf,
saying he wished their life "be always imbued with warmth and affection".
"There is something special women can offer to society without which
development is impossible - intelligence, intuition, kindness and beauty.
Associating with women not only ennobles, but brings experience and
knowledge," Putin said.
"The extent of freedom and democracy of a society is judged by the position
of women in this society," Putin said. "Regrettably, we have very few women
in power structures in Russia, and we have many problems in this field...
[agency's ellipsis] It is in politics, which need compromise and ability to
smooth things over, that we lack women's traditional qualities most of
all," he said.
Although the president said that the situation should be improved, in the
Kremlin administration only ten per cent of posts are occupied by women,
including deputy chief of the Kremlin administration Dzhahan Polyyeva,
chief of the presidential department for legal affairs Larisa Barycheva,
head of the presidential awards department Nina Sivova, first deputy chief
of the presidential press service Natalya Timakova.
Nonetheless, the "female minority" in the Kremlin administration, like all
the women in Russia, can hope for one privilege at least promised by the
president himself: "Women should have one unquestionable privilege - the
right to be protected by men."
*******
#7
BBC Monitoring
Russian designer advises Lyudmila Putin on clothes and make-up
Source: NTV, Moscow, in Russian 0900 gmt 7 Mar 02
[Presenter] For the first time ever Russia's First Lady has received a
couturier and make-up stylist by correspondence. A fashion designer from St
Petersburg, Janis Chamalidy, has created the designs for 13 suits. As early
as tomorrow [8 March] Lyudmila Putin may receive a parcel from St Petersburg.
Here is a report from our colleagues.
[Correspondent Yuliya Leshchenko] Until now the position of Mrs Putin's
personal fashion designer has officially remained vacant. The First Lady is
not interested in fashion magazines and prefers to choose items for her
wardrobe herself. She herself selects the cloth for her suits and does not
advertise her tailors' names.
There is no single style found in Mrs Putin's clothes, believes designer
Janis Chamalidy [spelling as given] from St Petersburg. On the eve of
International Women's Day he took the risk of offering to the First Lady his
own services to creating her image.
The portfolio from the Chamalidy Fashion House contains the designs of 13
suits for every occasion, as well as 10 make-up options with detailed
commentary including the lipstick type and number.
[Chamalidy] There is a wonderful violet make-up design, as well as a nice
pink one. And here we have suggested that she wear a red lipstick with a
golden shade - I think it will suit her very well and highlight the colour of
her eyes.
[Correspondent] For the first time in his practice Janis had worked with his
client by correspondence. He had to study Mrs Putin's face, figure and nature
on the basis of newspaper interviews and TV broadcasts. Chamalidy has the
courage to recommend to Mrs Putin a small black Chanel dress for evening
functions as well as a patchwork jacket for official meetings.
Chamalidy recommends that Mrs Putin wear a trouser suit of a refined peach
colour for St Petersburg's 300th anniversary.
[Chamalidy] St Petersburg is such a monumental city, all grey, and there is
Lyudmila, with a wonderful tenderness in her suit. I believe it is beneficial
for her to play with the contrast.
[Correspondent] Mrs Putin is not an admirer of superficial lustre which does
not lessen her chances of introducing her own special unique fashion style,
following Elizabeth II, Jacqueline Kennedy and other first ladies.
[Sergey Khromchenkov, captioned as Janis Chamalidy Fashion House managing
director] She will introduce the Russian woman's image into fashion because
Russian women have both a unique and elegant style, as well as transparency.
Inclined to needlework, Lyudmila Ivanovna will not be able to refuse such a
sincere impulse at least due to her woman's curiosity. It is no accident that
the courier is obliged to deliver the present from the designer to the
Kremlin on International Women's Day.
[Video shows Mrs Putin at various functions, archive pictures of first
ladies, fashion designer at work]
******
#8
Subject: RELEASE: Religions In Post-Soviet States "Emasculated"
From: jonesme@rferl.org
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2002
Religions In Post-Soviet States "Emasculated"
(Washington, DC--March 7, 2002) An expert on the state of religious
freedom in Communist and
ex-communist countries told an RFE/RL audience today that the secular
authoritarian governments of most of the successor states of the former
Soviet Union have "emasculated" the traditional religious confessions of
the region.
Lawrence Uzzell, Director of the Oxford-based Keston Institute,
said that "seventy years of official atheism has secularized religion,
even Islam" in most of the countries which emerged from the Soviet Union.
Uzzell noted that the old Soviet practice of providing state subsidies to
recognized confessions remains in place, more than a decade after the
collapse of the Soviet Union. "Corruption is what dominates church-state
relations, particularly in Russia," Uzzell said. As a result, local
religious leaders rarely take a position on state matters that have a
direct impact on their moral teachings and beliefs, "such as the homeless
in major cities, abortion, war atrocities in Chechnya or forced
expulsions."
In Russia, however, Uzzell said that in the last six months there
has been "mounting tension between [Russian President] Putin and the
Patriarchate in Moscow," because the Kremlin "has not consulted with the
Patriarch over a draft law that would create a new category of extremist
religious organizations, and make membership in the organizations a
criminal offense punishable by imprisonment." Uzzell said that the
Russian Orthodox Patriarchate objects to the draft law--not on grounds of
religious tolerance, nor religious freedom, but because this category will
"be determined by state authorities ... effectively setting up a rival
power center."
******
#9
The Jamestown Foundation
PRISM
A monthly on the post-Soviet states
February 2002 Volume VIII, Issue 2, Part 1
RUSSIA ON THE BRINK OF A SYSTEMIC CRISIS
By Aleksandr Tsipko
Aleksandr Tsipko is a senior associate at the Russian Academy of
Sciences' Institute for International Economic and Political
Research and a columnist for Literaturnaya Gazeta.
It has long been held that the Achilles heel of the Putin regime
is the contradiction between his strong and effective policies
and the weakness of the economy. Vladimir Putin has not been
able to provide the necessary economic base for his power
vertical and his great-power ambitions. This has been on the
minds of many experts again in recent weeks.
He solved the problem of consolidating his personal authority
with relative ease and speed. He has subordinated the Federation
Council in its entirety and gained complete control of the Duma.
He has at last put the regional elite--unbridled under
Yeltsin--in its proper place, and reduced the centrifugal drift
to nil. "The Putin party" today controls all the main state
institutions and all the security structures. But its authority
still does not extend to either the main mass media outlets or
the main financial flows. Putin's ability to take control of TV
channels is greatly exaggerated in the West. But it's no
surprise that, yet again, the restoration of order and state
discipline in Russia is tied up with the consolidation of a
regime based on personal power.
Strictly speaking, in Russia, where there has never been any
mechanism to allow for the democratic transfer of power, and
where political forces and parties do not have a free hand,
neither can there be any system of checks and balances. Yeltsin
came to power in August 1991 as a result of a democratic
revolution. Putin was merely nominated by Yeltsin as his
successor, and his administrative resources and promotional
talents proved sufficient for the unknown Vladimir Putin to win
over the population and get himself elected. But a man who comes
to power by means of a pact with some clan or other will clearly
be obliged to create his own power base if he is to escape from
the domination of those who appointed him. There is no other
way: Either he remains a puppet in the hands of the Yeltsin
clan, or he fights for his personal independence. Putin has
chosen the latter path, and is therefore determined to
strengthen his authority as much as he can. Clearly, the Family,
to safeguard themselves and their wealth, must in turn
constantly seek to limit Putin's power. The very fact of this
struggle between the Family and their nominee Putin is nudging
the country towards authoritarianism, though none would claim
that Putin has the qualities of a dictator or aspires to be
another Stalin. Rumors of a danger of authoritarianism in Russia
are, in this sense, greatly exaggerated.
The main danger for Russia lies neither in the struggle between
the Yeltsin clan and Putin's new St. Petersburg clan, nor in the
struggle between the so-called old Kremliners and the new
Kremliners, but in the weakness of the postcommunist economy.
Putin has, in fact, no serious economic resources either for
strengthening the Russian state or for strengthening democracy.
As the experience of the last two years shows, with a budget of
just US$50 billion--less than that of the average American
state--it is impossible to tackle a single serious task. This is
a truth that has become especially clear in recent days.
The continuing enrichment of the oligarchs, who acquired almost
cost-free the tastiest morsels of the property previously owned
by the Soviet Union--above all in the fuel and energy
complex--has not been accompanied by any enrichment of the state
or Russia as a whole. As has become apparent, Russia's survival
depends solely on the fuel and energy sector and on energy
exports. But the problem is that the new post-communist
state--and, by extension, Putin--is incapable of collecting
taxes or getting hold of its legitimate natural income. Experts
now hold that no more than 20 percent of this natural income,
which is needed for the provision of social services, is
actually being collected, while the bulk of it, like the bulk of
the super-profits of the fuel and energy companies, is tucked
away in off-shore zones or funding the super-consumption and
further enrichment of the corporate management. As a result, the
population's spending power remains extremely low, which has a
stalling effect on the development of all the other sectors of
the economy.
In 2001, Putin tried to tackle this weak point in the economy by
liberalizing it, and giving open incentives to big business by
freeing up the export of capital and granting tax breaks. He
judged that, given these incentives, big businesses would be
prepared to share their spoils more generously with the
government. Liberalization of the economy and the acceleration
of market reforms, as Putin saw it, was the only real
alternative to a return to direct government control and
renationalization of the fuel and energy sector. And it must be
admitted that at first, until the fall of 2001, this policy did
bear some fruit. More taxes were collected, the economy picked
up and there was a perceptible growth in production by the food
and light industrial sectors, as well as in metallurgy and even
machine-building. But by the fourth quarter of last year
stagnation was setting into the economy. Big businesses were
still in no hurry to share their superprofits with the state. A
curious combination of circumstances enabled the largest and
most successful oil companies to continue evading taxation. In
January, the state of the Russian economy deteriorated. Last
week, Goskomstat, the government's committee on statistics,
reported that national consumer prices had risen on average by
3.1 percent that month, while in a number of regions, including
Moscow, the figure exceeded 5 percent. Actually, prices in
Russia are rising faster than this, which has the greatest
effect on the poorer sections of society. This is all the more
surprising given that the country is seeing a marked
overproduction in the energy sector, which might, in other
circumstances, be the basis of an investment boom. But the ruble
is maintaining its relative stability only at the expense of the
currency reserve, and with the support of the Central Bank's
dollar investments. The people's confidence in the ruble is
fading. The government is trying to stave off rising inflation
by capping the earnings of state-salaried workers, a policy
already causing widespread discontent.
Economic hardship is beginning once gain to provoke public
dissatisfaction. Some pessimists are already writing openly
about "Russia's deepening systemic crisis." They maintain that
last December's squeeze on the ruble supply available for the
wages of state-salaried workers, doctors, teachers and
government employees led to an explosive growth in January of
"deviant" dissenting behavior. The army is losing more men to
desertion, and these are taking their weapons with them. In the
prisons, both break-outs and suicides are on the increase. One
can see a growth in the already dangerous criminalization of
society, with rising numbers of senseless crimes committed on
social grounds, against victims who are often well-known
figures, including famous academics. The network of crime and
murder extends to every layer of society. In response to this, a
group of professors from Moscow State University has sent a
collective letter to Putin, requesting him to lift the
moratorium on the use of capital punishment and to toughen up on
the punishment of murderers.
In Chechnya, military helicopters are continually going missing
or crashing for uncertain reasons. A sort of spontaneous,
elemental disorganization seems to be affecting every aspect of
social life. The public has reacted very badly to the shutting
off of electricity supplies even at top secret space defense
installations.
The Left has wasted no time in exploiting popular disenchantment
with Putin's liberal course. They have won the support of the
"siloviki" (former KGB and Army men) most of whom take a
negative view of their President's pro-Western, liberal agenda.
A tacit alliance has been formed between the Left and the
siloviki, and together they have launched a war against the
liberals, especially the group headed by Anatoly Chubais.
On February 6, the Communist faction of the Duma, having reached
an understanding with 'patriotically inclined ex-special
servicemen', set about collecting the signatures of lawmakers
for a petition to the Audit Chamber, requesting a detailed
investigation into the activities of EES Russia, Chubais's giant
energy corporation. They very soon had more than the ninety
signatures needed, which means that, depending on how events
turn out, the Chubais team may not survive long enough to see
the start of the real reforms planned for EES.
Last week, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which has been
a bastion of conservatism since Evgeny Primakov's arrival,
published a new proposal for Russia's entry into the World Trade
Organization, demanding a marked expansion of the list of
sectors which should be placed under state protection. Experts
take the view that the Primakov proposal is designed in effect
to torpedo the whole notion of joining the WTO in the
foreseeable future.
On January 9, the Deputy Commander of the Tula Airborne Landing
Division and "Hero of Russia" Valentin Polyansky gave a joint
press conference with Viktor Anpilov, in which he made an ardent
declaration of his support for Anpilov's Trudovaya Rossiya
(Workers' Russia) party. This was significant, in the first
place, because Polyansky would surely not have taken this step
without the approval of his immediate superior, and secondly
because, even in their most difficult days under Yeltsin, such
high-ranking officers have never before allowed themselves to
speak out in this way. And then suddenly, to everyone's
surprise, the notorious Pavel Borodin announces that he still
belongs to the Communist Party, and is even a member of the
Yakutsk party organization.
In the capital Moscow, the number of "technical faults"
(electrical power cuts, breakdowns in heating and water supplies
and so on) reported in the period from November to January was
several times higher than in the same period the previous
winter. There are plenty of similar examples. But the main
message is that these and many more instances show how Russia's
systemic crisis has risen to a qualitatively new level.
What is Putin's reaction to this new and essentially dangerous
situation? This is the chief question to which Russia's
political elite and the expert community are awaiting an answer
today. Only now has it become clear how difficult is the burden
that Putin has inherited. He is not being precipitate; he is
steering clear of radical conceptual resolutions. And he's
probably right. There is simply no easy way out of the
cul-de-sac in which Russia finds itself, due above all to the
ill-conceived and crumbling reforms of the past. Putin is not
talking about reinforcing "statism" in the economy. He is not
changing his team, and there's an equilibrium in the Kremlin
between the old Kremliners and the new. The key positions in his
administration are still held by proteges of the Family, who
maintain close links with the liberals.
But Putin has nevertheless put his liberal reforms on hold, in
particular the planned break-up of the natural monopolies. To
continue pursuing a liberal course in a moral and political
situation of such complexity would quite simply be dangerous.
Poverty-stricken Russia is not ready for the inevitable costs of
major structural reforms. Putin has had to drop his plans for a
substantial hike in the tariffs charged for services provided by
the natural monopolies, and the reform of the Ministry of
Railways has been postponed indefinitely. The restructuring of
Gazprom has been put on hold for ideological reasons. Even
Chubais cannot realistically do anything to commercialize his
EES utility. Against this background, Putin has no choice but to
use administrative measures to supplement his budget. There has
been a tightening of control over the financial flows. The
prosecutor's office is exploiting the oligarchs' fears of
imprisonment to extract their super-profits from them. It is not
what you'd call a civilized method, but Putin probably has no
alternative. In order to recover the billions of dollars
embezzled by the Sibur president, Goldovsky, it was necessary to
arrest him and remand him in custody. Such is the reality of
Russia's new capitalism. Yet it is clear that the Russian
economy cannot be turned around by enlisting the help of the
public prosecutor's office. Already, Yukos chief Khodorkovsky
has quietly begun to move his company's assets overseas.
Thus Putin faces some difficult decisions, and he cannot afford
to put them off.
******
#10
New York Times
March 8, 2002
A Little Russia on the Hudson
By CELESTINE BOHLEN
For the full impact of a certain Russian experience, nothing quite beats
"War and Peace." The book is long, and so is the opera. It has falling snow
and ballroom dancing, soul-searching and vodka bingeing, honor and dishonor,
not to mention the main themes, which are, of course, war and peace. ("Some
subject, eh?" as an American tourist said upon exiting the Leo Tolstoy
Museum in Moscow.)
But Prokofiev's "War and Peace," now on at the Metropolitan Opera in a
stunning production with the Kirov Opera of St. Petersburg, is also a sign
of something else. The Russians are here, and what's more, they are all over
the place — not only Russians but also Russian-speakers from all over the
former Soviet Union, recreating in different ways and in different places
what they used to do back home in the old U.S.S.R.
There are flashes of Odessa, the Black Sea port city, in Brighton Beach,
Brooklyn; of Bukhara and other exotic stops on the Central Asian Silk Route
in Rego Park, Queens; of the overheated salons of Moscow and St. Petersburg
in Midtown Manhattan; and of the cutting-edge Russian art scene in SoHo.
While Tolstoy is on at the Met, Turgenev is in previews on Broadway with
"Fortune's Fool," an adaption of the 19th-century writer's play "A Poor
Gentleman," directed by Arthur Penn and starring Alan Bates and Frank
Langella. Chekhov, the great dramatist whose "Seagull" took over Central
Park last summer, is now on the big screen with "The Cherry Orchard,"
produced and directed by Michael Cacoyannis, starring Charlotte Rampling
and, again, Mr. Bates.
These are the golden oldies of Russian culture, but this spring, the roster
is filling up with more contemporary offerings.
The choreographer Boris Eifman returns to City Center on March 27 with the
Eifman Ballet of St. Petersburg, which will be presenting two New York
premieres, "Don Quixote" and "Pinocchio." The St. Petersburg Philharmonic,
conducted by Yuri Temirkanov, will perform at Carnegie Hall tonight and
tomorrow night at 8 (related article, Page 3).
From March 14 to 31 the Actors' Playground Theater in Manhattan will stage
"An Absolutely Happy Village," a folksy tale of love, war and peace (what
else?) based on a novel by Boris Vakhtin, with sets by Alexander Solodukho,
performed in English with folk songs arranged in the Russian choral manner
by the Russian composer Sergei Dreznin.
For old times' sake, the Millennium Theater on Brighton Beach Avenue in
Brooklyn is presenting Red Star, an ensemble made up of members of the old
Red Army Chorus for an evening of song and dance, on March 22, at 8.
Aquarium, the Russian rock band that rode the wave of perestroika in the
late 1980's to international fame, is back in town on June 5, playing at the
Elbow Room in Greenwich Village; on April 18 the club will feature the Red
Elvises, a Russian rock- and-surf band from Los Angeles.
For art lovers, there are just as many offerings. The Museum of Modern Art
will have an exhibition of illustrated books of the Russian avant-garde from
March 28 to May 21. The Russian-American Cultural Center, which has held
exhibitions in the waterfront district near Brooklyn Heights known as Dumbo
and elsewhere, is back in its own downtown space in Lower Manhattan. This
month, it will have a show of works by Daria Deshuk and Aimee Koch. The Mimi
Ferzt Gallery in SoHo has a show of small works by contemporary Russian
artists from March 21 to April 7.
A Demand for Russian Art
At the A.B.A. Gallery on East 19th Street, Anatol Bekkerman, who welcomes
visitors by appointment only, has a room full of paintings and drawings by
top Russian artists from the late 19th and early 20th centuries, including
Natalia Goncharova, David Burliuk and Boris Ainsfeld. Their works have
enjoyed a huge boom in price and demand in recent years, driven largely by a
new class of Russian collectors.
The newly relocated Grant Gallery, which now occupies a light, airy space in
SoHo, has a show of Russian postwar avant-garde artists. On March 11 Mikhail
S. Gorbachev, the former Soviet president, is to attend a preview of an
auction of Russian and Russian-American art to benefit families of victims
of Sept. 11. "We thought it was our turn to offer some help, in return for
all the help we have received over the years," said Tatyana Grant, owner and
founder of the gallery.
For a Russian weekend in New York, you can have your pick of experiences,
particularly culinary experiences. You can try a bowl of spicy lagman, a
meat soup with noodles from Central Asia; a plateful of pickled tomatoes,
cucumbers and mushrooms; and a wide choice of shish kebabs and lula kebabs
at the Registan, a down-to- earth neighborhood resturant in Rego Park, in an
area that is home to Queens's booming community of Bukharan Jews from the
former Soviet republics of Central Asia.
Or you can stroll down Brighton Beach Avenue in Brooklyn, beneath the El,
pushing your way through the dense crowd of Russian-speaking shoppers, past
elderly couples dressed in their weekend best, avoiding the clusters of
broad-backed men in black leather jackets. Here the store signs come in two
languages and two alphabets, and the store windows have not lost that musty
Soviet look, with last season's holiday lights, frilly dresses and the
occasional plastic plant.
Russians love to go food shopping here, in particular at M & I International
Food on Brighton Beach Avenue in Brooklyn, where you can buy smetana, thick
Russian sour cream ladled out of vats, or various calibers of tvorog,
Russian cottage cheese, or kefir, the yogurtlike drink, powerful Russian
mustards and horseradish. Or you can sample offerings from an ample
selection of ready- made Russian foods, from blini to dumplings to stuffed
cabbage. (And if all this doesn't make the shoppers think of the old
country, then the ladies behind the counter, in their doctors' coats and
paper hats, certainly will.)
La Brioche is the misleading name of a very Russian bakery that, like other
bakeries on the avenue, sells brown bread, gingerbreads and the full and
varied array of cookies, cakes and piroshkis much loved by Russians. But
what makes this shop special is its old-fashioned wooden shelves, its
tablecloths and a brilliant display of candy bins, each stuffed with a
seemingly infinite variety of brightly wrapped candies, which turn the place
into a child's fantasy.
On a recent trip to Brighton Beach, after a stroll down the boardwalk, and
then onto the wide sandy beach, a group of us — including friends and
children — walked past the big restaurants that face the sea. Instead, we
ended up at a little cafe on Brighton Beach Avenue that goes by the name
Kafe Shashlychnaya in Russian and Cafe Shish Kebab in English. The soups and
shish kebabs were good, the salads fresh and excellent, the prices very
right (22 varieties of shish kebab, including quail, sturgeon and chicken
liver, priced from $3.50 to $5.50).
There are of course, bigger, fancier, pricier, certainly noisier restaurants
in and near Brighton Beach. Rasputin on Coney Island Avenue is now said to
be the best for an old- fashioned evening of high-pitched drinking and
dancing.
Moscow in Midtown
But for a new generation of Russians, the place to be is not the old
ethnically dense neighborhoods of Brighton Beach, or Rego Park. It is
Manhattan, which in the last 10 years has accumulated its own critical mass
of Russian hangouts, now clustered in Midtown at the upper end of the
theater district.
Of these, the Russian Samovar is the most famous, run by Roman Kaplan, who
has made the establishment on West 52nd Street a gathering place for the
Russian literary and artistic elite, both those who live here and those who
make a habit of passing through. The food is good, the piano-playing lively,
and on certain evenings, Mr. Kaplan organizes poetry readings on the second
floor, which gives the restaurant its salon quality.
Literally across the street is the Russian Vodka Room, founded several years
ago by former waiters at the Samovar, who turned a long, dark room into a
hip, smoke-filled, jam-packed watering hole for young Russians and
Americans, offering all kinds of vodka, food like blini and caviar, but
also, in a distinctly Russian touch, sunflower and pumpkin seeds in lieu of
pretzels.
Two blocks north, on West 54th Street, is Uncle Vanya, a small restaurant,
open for lunch and dinner, founded by Marina Troshina, a former Moscow
actress with an equally loyal clientele, who fill the place up on weekends
for some very Russian karaoke singing. Here the atmosphere, true to the
name, is very homey, like the living room of an older relative, complete
with prints and posters, collections of Russian china, a table lamp in the
window and some leftover New Year's lights.
The Tea Room? So Klukva
There have always been Russians in Manhattan — certainly since 1917, the
year of the Bolshevik Revolution. Think of À la Vieille Russie on Fifth
Avenue, with its fabulous jewels, or the Russian Tea Room, founded in 1926
and frequented by émigré musicians and ballet teachers looking for a cozy
place to have tea with jam. The vodka came later, after Prohibition. Later
still came the over-the-top restaurant of today that may be Russian in name
but in the view of most Russians is a prime example of what they call
klukva: literally cranberry but also a word used to sum up fake and cloying
clichés of Russianness. The Firebird restaurant on West 46th Street is also
described by most Russians as a place that may serve Russian cuisine, but is
somehow not, you know, Russian.
Russians have continued to come to New York in waves. Following the first in
the late teens, the second wave arrived here after World War II and the
third in the 1970's, with the immigration of Russian Jews, most of whom
gravitated to Brighton Beach, which continues to thrive as a center of
another kind of Russian experience.
What is new in the last four or five years is yet one more immigration, of
young professionals, artists and musicians, but also lawyers, computer
programmers and business school graduates. Some are the bilingual children
of recent immigrants; some are here for the same reason that people from
France, Italy, Israel and other places are in New York: because this is a
good place to be when you are young, smart, ambitious and curious. It can
also help to be cool.
These young Russians — their numbers are uncountable — have different
backgrounds. Katya Varlamova, 26, and Michael Zaitsev, 30, both from St.
Petersburg, are working in finance after finishing American universities.
Their friend Marina Neustadt, who came from Los Angeles and is the child of
Russian Jewish immigrants, runs a French boutique downtown on West Broadway.
But when they get together, they consider themselves Russian, and every once
in a while they feel like doing Russian things. They go to the opera — "War
and Peace" is at the top of their list this season — and to the ballet.
Every fall, they attend the Russian-American Film Festival, usually at the
Ziegfeld Theater. Downtown, they hang out at the Grant Gallery, where Ms.
Grant has plans to open her space for small theatrical productions and other
performances.
Sightseeing and Shopping
This crowd rarely goes to Brighton Beach; they tend to view it as
claustrophobic and a little bit menacing. But if they do, it is either to
take visitors from Russia on a sightseeing trip or to go shopping — for
books, videos and CD's at the sprawling St. Petersburg bookstore on Brighton
Beach Avenue, or for the dairy products and other Russian delicacies that
are difficult (although not impossible) to find in Manhattan.
But mostly, they like to hang out together in the great tradition of the
Russian tussovka, which means more or less a group of friends who get
together regularly. This group, no doubt one of many, even went so far as to
give their tussovka a name — nash krug, or our circle — and to organize
regular parties every three months or so for their closest friends, or
roughly 150 people.
The numbers are too great for the Midtown venues, so the leaders of nash
krug are on perpetual lookout for new places to hang out. Once upon a time,
they went to Club Moscow on the East Side, which has since closed. Another
time, they strayed and went to a Brazilian restaurant. Most recently, they
took over Ms. Neustadt's store and ordered in prepared food from
International Food in Brighton Beach.
"Russians are like lounge lizards," Ms. Neustadt said. `'They are always
looking for a place where you can go hang out, talk and drink. Right now, we
are down to just a few places in Manhattan, and they are packed all the
time."
But there is another place where some young Russians like to go, not to hang
out but to find peace and quiet in the middle of the city. It is the
Nicholas Roerich Museum on West 107th Street near Riverside Drive, dedicated
to a Russian painter and archaeologist famous for his exploration of Tibet
and Eastern religions (and for his designs for Nijinsky's 1913 ballet to
music by Stravinsky, "Le Sacre du Printemps"). Chamber music concerts are
often held at the museum on Sunday afternoons.
`'Sometimes I go there if I need a rest for my soul," said Ms. Varlamova, a
graduate of Fordham University. "There is something about the atmosphere
which is almost spiritual. I find myself keeping coming back because it is
one place in this city that gives you a quiet moment."
Beyond Borscht
Events and places in the article on a Russian weekend in New York City.
Performances and Film
"AN ABSOLUTELY HAPPY VILLAGE." Thursday through March 31. Thursdays through
Saturdays at 8 p.m.; Sundays at 2 p.m. Actors' Playground Theater, 412
Eighth Avenue, at 30th Street, Manhattan, (212) 567-3356 or
www.ahappyvillage.com. Tickets: $15.
AQUARIUM, Russian rock. June 5, the Elbow Room, 144 Bleecker Street,
Greenwich Village, (212) 979-8434.
"THE CHERRY ORCHARD," a film by Michael Cacoyannis, starring Charlotte
Rampling and Alan Bates. Quad Cinema, 34 West 13th Street, West Village,
(212) 255-8800; daily screening times, 2:40, 5:20 and 9:40 p.m. through
Thursday. Tickets: $9; $6 for children and 65+.
EIFMAN BALLET OF ST. PETERSBURG. Opens March 27. "Don Quixote," March 29 at
8 p.m., March 30 at 2 and 8 p.m., March 31 at 2 and 7 p.m. "Pinocchio,"
April 12 at 8 p.m., April 13 at 2 and 8 p.m., April 14 at 2 and 7 p.m. City
Center, 131 West 55th Street, Manhattan. Tickets: $40 to $60.
"FORTUNE'S FOOL," in previews through April 1; opening April 2. Tuesdays,
Thursdays and Fridays at 8 p.m.; Wednesdays and Saturdays at 2 and 8 p.m.;
Sundays at 3 p.m. Music Box Theater, 239 West 45th Street, Manhattan, (212)
239-6200. Tickets: $20 to $75.
THE RED ELVISES, Russian rock-and-surf music from Los Angeles, April 18. The
Elbow Room, 144 Bleecker Street, Greenwich Village, (212) 979-8434.
RED STAR, members of the old Red Army Chorus in an evening of song and
dance, March 22 at 8. Millennium Theater, 1029 Brighton Beach Avenue, at
11th Street, Brighton Beach, Brooklyn, (718) 615-1500. Tickets: $20 to $50.
ST. PETERSBURG PHILHARMONIC, conducted by Yuri Temirkanov, in Shostakovich's
"Leningrad" Symphony and Rachmaninoff's First Piano Concerto, with Leif Ove
Andsnes as soloist tonight at 8; Dmitri Alexeev is the soloist in
Rachmaninoff's Second Piano Concerto tomorrow at 8 p.m. Carnegie Hall, (212)
247-7800; www.carnegiehall.org. Tickets: $23 to $101.
"WAR AND PEACE," Metropolitan Opera. Remaining performances: tomorrow at 8
p.m.; Tuesday, March 15 and March 19 at 7:30 p.m. Metropolitan Opera House,
Lincoln Center, (212) 362-6000. Tickets, sold out, but returns may be
available.
Museums and Galleries
A.B.A. GALLERY, 47 East 19th Street, Manhattan, (212) 677-2367. Open by
appointment only.
À LA VIEILLE RUSSIE, 781 Fifth Avenue, at 59th Street, (212) 752-1727.
MIMI FERZT GALLERY, 114 Prince Street, SoHo, (212) 343-9377. "Small Works:
Group Exhibition Featuring Contemporary Russian Artists," March 21 to April
7. "Nikolai Makarov: New Works," April 25 to May 13. Hours: Mondays through
Saturdays, 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.; Sundays, 11 a.m. to 6 p.m.
GRANT GALLERY, 7 Mercer Street, SoHo, (212) 343-2919 or
www.grantgallery.com. "Russian Postwar Avant-Garde," through today.
MUSEUM OF MODERN ART, 11 West 53rd Street, Manhattan, (212) 708-9400. "The
Russian Avant-Garde Book: 1910-1934," March 28 to May 21. Hours: Thursdays
through Tuesdays, 10:30 a.m. to 5:45 p.m.; Fridays, to 8:15. Admission: $12;
$8.50, students and 65+.
NICHOLAS ROERICH MUSEUM, 319 West 107th Street, Morningside Heights, (212)
864-7752. With works by the artist. Also concerts most Sundays at 5 p.m.
This Sunday, a violin and piano recital; March 17, piano and cello; March
24, viola, violin and piano; April 5, violin (7:30 p.m.); April 7, piano,
violin, clarinet and soprano. Hours: Tuesdays through Sundays, 2 to 5 p.m.
Donations accepted.
RUSSIAN-AMERICAN CULTURAL CENTER, 14th floor, 55 John Street, at Broadway,
Lower Manhattan, (212) 744-5168.
Restaurants and Food Store
"LA BRIOCHE" CAFE, 1073 Brighton Beach Avenue, at 12th Street, Brighton
Beach, Brooklyn, (718) 934-7709.
CAFE SHISH KEBAB, 414 Brighton Beach Avenue, near Fourth Street, Brighton
Beach Brooklyn, (718) 368-0966.
FIREBIRD, 365 West 46th Street, Manhattan, (212) 586-0244.
M & I INTERNATIONAL FOOD, 249 Brighton Beach Avenue, at Second Street,
Brighton Beach, Brooklyn, (718) 615-1011.
RASPUTIN, 2670 Coney Island Avenue, at Avenue X, Coney Island, Brooklyn,
(718) 332-8111.
REGISTAN, 65-37 99th Street, Rego Park, Queens, (718) 459-1638.
RUSSIAN SAMOVAR, 256 West 52nd Street, Manhattan, (212) 757-0168.
RUSSIAN TEA ROOM, 150 West 57th Street, Manhattan, (212) 974-2111.
RUSSIAN VODKA ROOM, 265 West 52nd Street, Manhattan, (212) 307-5835.
UNCLE VANYA, 315 West 54th Street, Manhattan, (212) 262-0542.
Books and Videos
PUBLISHING HOUSE ST. PETERSBURG, 230 Brighton Beach Avenue, near First
Street, Brighton Beach, Brooklyn, (718) 368-4128.
******
#11
Russia: Inflationary Pressure Eases As Oil Prices Continue To Slide
By Michael Lelyveld
Russian inflationary pressure has eased after a sudden jump in January,
giving officials more hope of meeting their budgetary targets. The
anti-inflation effort may be helped along by low domestic oil prices due to
high production, despite promises made by the Kremlin in December to the
OPEC oil cartel.
Boston, 8 March 2002 (RFE/RL) -- Russia won a round in its fight with
inflation in February as steep price rises eased, but pressures on energy
policy may keep Moscow on guard for the rest of the year.
Government officials voiced confidence this week as monthly inflation fell
to 1.2 percent after hitting a three-year high of 3.1 percent in January.
On 4 March, the head of the presidential economic department, Anton
Danilov-Danilyan, said the January price spike "was of a purely temporary
nature," the RIA Novosti news agency reported.
The government has been cautious since the sudden surge in January raised
fears that it would miss its budget target to keep annual inflation below
14 percent. Scheduled tariff increases for natural monopolies on gas,
electricity, and railways were slowed down or left up in the air.
Last year, Russia's inflation crept up to 18.6 percent. The February mark
was lower than in 2001 but higher than in 2000, when consumer prices
climbed over 20 percent. Despite a sense that seasonal price pressures may
have abated, the government remains wary of its biggest economic concern.
Officials are being pulled in several directions at once over energy and
economic policy this year.
This week, the International Energy Agency added its input with the release
of a study on Russia's energy sector in Moscow. The Paris-based agency said
that Russia "must implement energy price reforms" in order to attract the
$550 billion to $700 billion it needs to invest in energy infrastructure by
2020.
A Reuters summary of the report said that up to 60 percent of Russia's oil
fields are declining due to lagging investment. Among other things, the
study urged Russia to close the huge gap between domestic and export prices
of oil.
The IEA said that higher gas and electricity tariffs would also yield major
energy savings by promoting efficiency. The report said that "Price reform
is probably the single most important policy for the gas -- and perhaps the
entire energy sector -- in the first decade of the 21st century."
The recommendations come at a time when Russia's domestic oil prices have
fallen to about one-fifth of world market levels, while gas sells for
one-tenth of European prices. The government has kept gas rates in check
because of the inflation problem, despite its goal of ending the old Soviet
subsidies and the practice of providing gas virtually for free.
But domestic oil prices have slumped in part because of seemingly contrary
policies being pursued by the government.
Last December, the government promised the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) that Russia would cut oil exports by 150,000
barrels per day in the first quarter of this year to help keep world prices
from falling too far. There has been vast confusion about the pledge, and
from what level Russia promised to cut.
Some officials referred to a drop in production, while others talked about
exports. Still others said the reduction would apply only to exports by
pipeline and not by ship. Some compared the new level to the fourth quarter
of last year, while others cited third-quarter figures.
After meeting with OPEC officials in Moscow on 4 March, Energy Minister
Igor Yusufov told reporters that Russia "strictly fulfills" its promise to
OPEC, RIA Novosti reported. But there has been little evidence that is the
case.
On 6 March, the IEA's executive director, Robert Priddle, said Russia had
yet to reduce its exports. Priddle said that "According to our preliminary
figures, Russia's crude exports are holding up," the Dow-Jones news agency
reported.
Interfax reported that Russia's oil exports outside the CIS rose 8 percent
from the year-earlier period, while the industry newsletter Petroleum Argus
said this week that "Russia shows no sign of cutting exports."
In Moscow this week, OPEC officials tried to get Russia to renew its
supposed cuts, but they received no further pledges.
The doubts about Russian promises have made little difference to world
prices, which have stayed firm because of optimistic OPEC statements, signs
of recovery in the United States, and fears of a possible war with Iraq.
But within Russia, oil prices have dropped because the oil companies are
producing even faster than they export. In the first two months of this
year, production is up 8.7 percent. The production boom seems to be more
responsible for flooding the domestic market than the export promise to OPEC.
The result seems to be in keeping with two goals announced by President
Vladimir Putin's economic adviser, Andrei Illarionov. The first is to curb
inflation. The second is to restore Russia's share of the world oil market
from Soviet times.
For the time being, low domestic oil prices seem to be helping keep
inflation under control even though some gas and electricity tariffs have
been raised. The effect may make it less likely that Russia can afford to
change its oil policy soon.
This week, Petroleum Argus also quoted an unnamed senior government
official as saying that Russia "will never allow OPEC (to) manipulate its
oil exports." The official said the government would rather risk losing
revenue due to low oil prices than the share of the world market that
Russia has gained.
The reasons may explain why OPEC officials left Moscow empty-handed this
week and why the cartel may be unable to count on Russian promises again.
*******
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