Johnson's Russia List #6117 6 March 2002 davidjohnson@erols.com A CDI Project www.cdi.org [Note from David Johnson: 1. Moscow Times: Patrick Henry, Berezovsky Says Putin Knew About FSB Role. 2. The Independent (UK): Patrick Cockburn, Deadly attacks that made leader a hero. 3. AP: Tycoon: EU Should Probe 1999 Attacks. 4. New book coming: Strobe Talbott, The Russia Hand : A Memoir of Presidential Diplomacy. 5. The Electronic Telegraph (UK): Clem Cecil, Glossy magazines illustrate Russia's female revolution. 6. AP: Russia Voices Steel Tariff Concerns. 7. UPI: Russia, U.S. move closer to trade war. 8. AP: Ex-Adviser Urges Russia to Rebuild. (Brzezinski) 9. Moscow Times: Robin Munro, 'Arrogant' U.S. Comes Under Fire at Forum. 10. Reuters: Putin wants new cultural code to help children. 11. BBC Monitoring: Russia's Putin calls for new cultural values in rearing, educating children. 12. eurasianet.org: Ariel Cohen, CRIMINAL ACTIVITY, NOT TERRORISM, MAIN SOURCE OF PANKISI INSTABILITY - OPINION POLL. 13. BBC Monitoring: Chechen web site sees first signs of Russia's changing attitude to Chechnya. 14. The Moscow Tribune: Dmitry Polikarpov, Website to integrate all info on Moscow. 15. New book: Kevin McKenna, All the Views Fit to Print. Changing Images of the U.S. in Pravda Political Cartoons, 1917-1991. 16. EastWest Institute announces a conference "Ukraine and the West 2002: Policies for Progress." 17. Jamestown Foundation Monitor: The "Strangler of NTV" will represent Leningrad Oblast in Federation Council. (Kokh) 18. RFE/RL: Jean-Christophe Peuch, Caucasus: Chechens See No Threat In U.S.-Georgia Antiterror Drive. 19. Baltimore Sun: Mark Matthews, U.S. believes Russia is shifting on Iraq. White House official says Moscow appears ready to accept possible attack.] ******* #1 Moscow Times March 6, 2002 Berezovsky Says Putin Knew About FSB Role By Patrick Henry Staff Writer LONDON -- Boris Berezovsky announced Tuesday that President Vladimir Putin "definitely knew" that the Federal Security Service was involved in four bombings that killed more than 300 people in Moscow and two other cities in the fall of 1999, as well as a foiled bombing attempt in Ryazan. "At a minimum Vladimir Putin knew that the FSB was involved in the bombings in Moscow, Volgodonsk and Ryazan," Berezovsky told reporters, adding that Putin's failure to order a full investigation of the attacks constituted a coverup. Berezovsky said that Liberal Russia, a political movement he bankrolls and co-chairs, would file formal appeals with the European Parliament and other international organizations in a bid to force a full investigation of the bombings. Putin would be specifically named in those appeals, he said. Berezovsky noted, however, that he had no evidence suggesting that Putin had ordered the bombings. In Moscow, an FSB spokesman said Berezovsky's allegations were "untenable and devoid of common sense," Interfax reported. "Berezovsky's behavior is predictable. In anticipation of charges against him, he is trying, well in advance, to present himself to the world as a victim and a fighter for political freedoms in Russia," the spokesman was quoted as saying. Putin resigned as FSB chief to become prime minister shortly before the spate of bombings began in Buinaksk, Dagestan, on Sept. 4, 1999. That blast leveled an apartment building, claiming 62 lives. Two apartment buildings were subsequently destroyed by explosions in Moscow, killing 215. A fourth bomb was detonated outside an apartment building in Volgodonsk on Sept. 16, leaving 18 dead and 288 injured. The government has blamed Chechen rebels for the attacks, though it has never produced evidence to back up this claim. The FSB announced last month that all of the bombers were known, and that some had been detained, though no details have since emerged. The only convictions to date concern the first bombing at Buinaksk. Two men were sentenced to life in prison by a Dagestani court last year and four others were given lighter sentences. Berezovsky called Tuesday's press conference in order to release what he billed as new evidence of the FSB's involvement in the 1999 bombings, but no new information relevant to the bombings was in fact made public. Asked if the press conference was primarily a political stunt, the former Kremlin insider refused to comment. Reporters were shown a 10-minute clip from "Assassination of Russia," a 52-minute documentary soon to be released by a French company, Transparences Productions, using footage originally shot by NTV. The film focuses on the foiled bombing in Ryazan on Sept. 22, 1999. A bomb was discovered in the basement of a 12-story apartment building in Ryazan by local police. The device consisted of several bags of a white powder connected to a timer and a shotgun shell detonator. Investigators in Ryazan initially identified the powder as hexogen, a powerful explosive. But FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev quickly dismissed this finding, claiming that the whole incident was merely a training exercise with a dummy bomb, and that the bags contained sugar. According to Berezovsky, four explosives experts from Britain and France had examined the available evidence from the Ryazan incident -- including photographs of the explosive device made by investigators -- and concluded that the bomb was authentic. All physical evidence from the Ryazan crime scene has been classified and sealed for 75 years, he said. Berezovsky said he had initially planned to air the documentary in Russia on TV6, which he controlled until recently. The film would nonetheless be offered to the Russian networks, he said, and could serve as an acid test of the government's determination to find those responsible for the 1999 attacks. If the networks refuse to air the film, he said, this will indicate that the government fears a transparent inquiry. The closest thing to a "smoking gun" presented Tuesday was a statement by Nikita Chekulin, who was presented as the former acting director of Roskonversvzryvtsentr, a research institute affiliated with the Education Ministry that deals with explosives. Chekulin claimed to have documentary evidence showing that the institute had purchased tons of the explosive hexogen from military installations in 2000. That hexogen was then falsely labeled and transferred to "various cover agencies in the regions," he said. An internal Education Ministry investigation led Minister Vladimir Filippov to ask for the FSB to get involved. Among those Chekulin said knew of this "possible terrorist activity" were Deputy Prime Minister Valentina Matviyenko, then-Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov, Patrushev, then-Interior Minister Vladimir Rushailo and then-Security Council Chairman Sergei Ivanov. "Mr. Patrushev forbade the investigation, and his deputy Yury Zaostrovtsev informed the Education Ministry of this decision," Chekulin said. Chekulin produced no documents Tuesday, however, and added after the press conference that the information in his possession -- copies of official documents -- has no direct bearing on the 1999 bombings. ******* #2 The Independent (UK) 6 March 2002 Deadly attacks that made leader a hero By Patrick Cockburn A series of bomb attacks on civilians in Russia two and a half years ago killed 300 and set the scene for a new war in Chechnya and the sudden elevation of Vladimir Putin, a little-known intelligence officer, as the unchallenged leader of Russia. The bombs terrified Russians, as they were designed to do, because they were left in working-class apartments. The worst was in Kashirskoye Shosse, in central Moscow, where an explosion at 5am on 13 September 1999 killed 124 people as they slept. A wave of fear and rage swept Russia. Chechens were widely blamed. Islamic militants in Chechnya had invaded the neighbouring republic of Dagestan a few weeks before. Russian troops were soon ordered across the Chechen border. Within weeks Mr Putin became a symbol of Russian patriotism and the most popular man in the country. From the beginnings there were suspicions about who was behind the bombings. Foreign newspapers, in the summer of 1999, had reported that officials in the Kremlin had discussed launching a "terrorist" campaign against their own people. When The Independent interviewed survivors of the Kashirskoye Shosse explosion before the presidential election, which was easily won by Mr Putin, many doubted the official explanation. "It was only at the beginning that we thought it was the Chechens," said Svetlana Nikolaevna, who worked in a kindergarten. "Now we think it was people in the Kremlin administration who wanted to stay in power." A number of Muslims from the North Caucasus, though few from Chechnya, were arrested but security officers admitted they did not know who had given the orders for the attacks. A problem for investigators is that those who bombed the buildings may not have known for whom they were ultimately working. ******* #3 Tycoon: EU Should Probe 1999 Attacks March 5, 2002 By JILL LAWLESS LONDON (AP) - Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky said Tuesday he would ask the European Union to investigate allegations that Russia's secret service carried out a series of deadly apartment bombings. Berezovsky, a former Kremlin insider who fell out of favor after President Vladimir Putin's election, called the 1999 attacks that killed more than 300 people unprecedented ``Two and a half years later, no one can say the people who did it are in jail, nor can we really say who did it,'' he said. The explosions in Moscow and the city of Volgodonsk in 1999 blew up several apartment buildings, killing scores of sleeping residents. Moscow blamed the attacks on Chechen rebels, and several months later sent troops back into Chechnya after a three-year absence. On Tuesday, Berezovsky accused Russia's Federal Security Service, or FSB, of orchestrating the bombings. At a news conference in London, Berezovsky played segments of a French documentary outlining circumstantial evidence of alleged FSB involvement in the explosions. Sergei Yushenkov, who with Berezovsky chairs the political movement Liberal Russia, said the group would ask the Council of Europe to investigate the explosions. In Russia, a spokesman for the FSB told the Interfax news agency that Berezovsky's allegations were ``groundless and lacking in common sense.'' Russian officials instead accused Berezovsky of channeling money to Chechen rebels, and said Tuesday that they were considering asking Interpol to issue an arrest warrant on charges that Berezovsky financed the separatists. Berezovsky has evaded the charges by moving to London. He calls the charges politically motivated. The evidence Berezovsky presented Tuesday centers on an incident in September 1999 in the city of Ryazan, where police evacuated a building after finding what appeared to be explosives. Police and government officials initially said they had foiled a terrorist attack, but the FSB later said the explosives had been fakes used in a training exercise. The incident has been extensively examined over the years. Berezovsky and his supporters also point to claims by Nikita Chekulin, a former government explosives expert who says he has amassed evidence of an alleged FSB plot to move combat-grade explosives across Russia disguised as ordinary industrial material. Berezovsky also said the investigation should look at the actions of Putin, who headed the FSB, the main successor to the Soviet KGB, until August 1999. Putin was prime minister at the time of the apartment bombings. He said Putin ``knew that such things were taking place ... Either he could have prevented a terrorist attack and didn't do it, or he was passive.'' But Russian authorities have their own claims of Berezovsky's alleged connection to Chechen rebels. Pavel Barkovsky, deputy head of the Russian prosecutor general's special investigations department, was quoted by ITAR-Tass as saying authorities were investigating claims that Berezovsky was involved in the 2000 abduction and murder of the Interior Ministry's envoy to Chechnya, Gen. Gennadi Shpigun. Prosecutors could soon issue an international arrest warrant for Berezovsky if they can find evidence to back up their claims, he was quoted by ITAR-Tass and Interfax as saying. Once one of Russia's richest and most powerful businessmen with interests in banking, oil, broadcasting and airlines, Berezovsky was closely linked to former President Boris Yeltsin. He was an early supporter of Putin, but in the last two years he has become a vocal Kremlin critic. ****** #4 amazon.com The Russia Hand : A Memoir of Presidential Diplomacy by Strobe Talbott List Price: $29.95 Hardcover - 480 pages 1 Ed edition (June 2002) Random House; ISBN: 0375507140 Editorial Reviews From Library Journal Deputy secretary of state during much of Clinton's administration, Talbott was charged with helping Russia save itself after the collapse of communism. From the Back Cover "A unique document, by turns racy, scholarly, shamelessly personal, and always of our time. We shall not read its like for a long while." -- John Le Carre "Strobe Talbott has written a wonderfully rich and revealing account of the turbulent relationship between the U.S. and Russia during the first post-Cold-War years. Colorful, full of surprises and intimate portraits of the key people involved -- by the man who was at the center of it all -- this book is and will remain essential for any understanding of this critical and even dangerous period." -Elizabeth Drew "A fascinating portrait of diplomacy as it really works (and sometimes doesn't), written with clarity and grace by a wise man." -Evan Thomas ****** #5 The Electronic Telegraph (UK) 3 March 2002 Glossy magazines illustrate Russia's female revolution THIS week's International Women's Day - traditionally marked by a Communist-inspired public holiday - is increasingly irrelevant to a new career-driven class of Russian women, reports Clem Cecil The rash of glossy magazines adorning Russia's news stands testifies to a new breed of women who expect more from life than to run the household, punch the factory time card and be celebrated waving the hammer and sickle on Stalinesque posters. The reality, in which the husband would more likely roll home high on vodka and expect dinner to be on the table, was always somewhat different. March 8 in Russia is a cross between Mother's Day and Valentine's Day, when every female, from infants to old women, is given a present by the opposite sex. President Putin, sticking to tradition, will receive three "Hero Mothers" who have 24 children between them, in the Kremlin. They are, however, the last of a dying breed of woman as a new generation of post-Yeltsin high achievers emerge with career - rather than motherhood - aspirations. Russia's Vogue magazine bears witness each month to the country's "new woman" as it highlights the lives of successful business women. Last week, for the first time, a Russian - Olga Dergunova, the head of Microsoft in Russia - was named by The Wall Street Journal as one of the 25 most successful female directors in European business. Daria Razumikhina is the only Russian fashion designer selling abroad. Her clothes, under the label Razu Mikhina, are in demand in international department stores. She achieved her success by willing herself to take on and beat the stultifying red tape of Russian bureaucracy. Such women are the new role models for the younger generation, who 20 years ago, worshipped the astronaut Valentina Tereshkova, a symbol of Soviet, rather than personal, achievement. The change is visible everywhere: only a few years ago it was rare to see a woman driving a car in Russia; now they drive taxis. The attitude to the woman's role in the family is also changing. "Women realise that they don't have to marry to have a successful life," says Anastasia Kupriyanova, the editor of Peasant Girl, a former Soviet women's magazine. Most young Russian women still are born into poverty and hurry to marry in order to move out of the family home. Now, however, those who have managed to forge their own career can afford to rent accommodation. Before perestroika the average age for a young woman to marry was 20, now it is 24 or 25. A Soviet woman who was 25 when she gave birth was labelled "old" by doctors; now it is the average age for childbirth. Despite women choosing to marry later, Alyona Doletskaya, the editor of Russian Vogue, thinks that the Bridget Jones phenomenon, when career girls panic about marriage, is still a long way off. "My staff loved Bridget Jones, but it has not reached that stage here. Also, Russian women are more secure in their beauty than Western women." The new glossies such as Vogue are the bibles of the new generation of affluent middle class women. Cosmopolitan came to Russia eight years ago, and has since been joined by the other big names: Elle, Harper's Bazaar and Marie Claire. A celebrity culture, needed to swell the pages of society magazines, is still in its infancy in Russia. "The trouble is it is always the same 50 people on the guest list who get photographed in our party pages," says Elena Myasnikova, the publisher of Russian Cosmopolitan. A Russian version of Hello!, aptly named Who? lasted only a year after its launch in 2000. "There were not enough people to write stories about," says Ms Myasnikova. "The Russian celebrity list is quite short." With their luscious advertising and visions of glamour, the glossies all but killed their Russian counterparts. The unglamorously named Peasant Girl is the exception, and continues to sell well outside Moscow and St Petersburg. Peasant Girl stays true to its roots; together with gardening advice, it lists recipes which use ingredients that are available in Russian shops. Vogue this month features recipes using summer fruits, which can only be found in elite city supermarkets. A by-product of the outbreak of glossy magazines is the emergence of a number of "It-girls", young women from rich Russian backgrounds who are easy on the eye and wear designer clothes. One of these girls, Ksenia Sobchak, is the daughter of the former mayor of St Petersburg, and is part of the small group of socialites who go to every Moscow party. For women such as these and the new careerists, March 8 is of little interest. "For me it is simply a welcome day off on which I can expect a bunch of flowers," says Ms Myasnikova. There are still millions of Russian women, however, for whom it is a day of rest from a life of hard grind. "It's the only day when I get breakfast in bed," says Vera Ivanovna, an attendant on the Moscow underground, who spends most of the day on her feet. ****** #6 Russia Voices Steel Tariff Concerns March 5, 2002 MOSCOW (AP) - Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday it had summoned the U.S. ambassador to voice concerns about American anti-dumping sanctions on steel imports. President Bush slapped punishing tariffs of 8 percent to 30 percent on several types of imported steel including that from Russia in an effort to aid the ailing U.S. industry. At the Monday meeting, U.S. Ambassador Alexander Vershbow was told that sanctions violate the spirit of bilateral trade agreements, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. ``Such actions, hard to explain from the international legal and the economic points of view, could seriously affect the atmosphere of Russian-American relations,'' the statement said. Vershbow would not comment on the meeting. Russia's NTV television reported that the new tariffs could cost Russia up to $1.5 billion. In what Russian analysts have called Moscow's response, Russia's Agriculture Ministry has introduced a ban on U.S. poultry imports as of March 10. Russian officials said the temporary ban was an effort to increase pressure on American producers to divulge what antibiotics, preservatives and other substances are used in the industry. Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov denied the poultry ban and the steel sanctions were related. The disputes come amid an overall improvement in U.S.-Russian relations since Russia's President Vladimir Putin sided with the U.S.-led anti-terrorist campaign in Afghanistan. ****** #7 Russia, U.S. move closer to trade war MOSCOW, March 5 (UPI) -- Russia and the United States edged closer to a trade war Tuesday as President George W. Bush imposed 30 percent tariffs on imported steel while Moscow announced it would ban the import of U.S. poultry. Shortly before Bush announced the tough steel tariffs, the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the U.S. ambassador to Moscow, Alexander Vershbow, to express its deep concern with the protectionist move being made by Washington. A Foreign Ministry statement said the new tariffs, which are being imposed by the United States as an anti-dumping measure, "go against the grain of procedures and conditions of bilateral agreements on trade." "Such actions, which can hardly be explained in terms of international law or economic expediency, could seriously damage bilateral Russian-American ties," the statement said. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said the high tariffs would have a "negative impact on the (Russian) steel industry." Former Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov told Russia's ORT television network that Russian steel exporters stand to lose as much as $1.5 billion once the U.S. tariffs are in place. Zadornov warned that a large number of jobs could be lost because of the cutback in Russian steel exports to the United States. At the same time, Russia's veterinary service said imports of U.S. poultry would be banned as of March 10 because of "serious lapses in U.S. quality controls." The veterinary service said recent tests of nine samples of chicken imported from the United States had come out positive for salmonella. The tests were conducted in the northwestern Leningrad region, near the port of St. Peterburg, which is used for the bulk of U.S. poultry imports to Russia. The Russian Agriculture Ministry has stopped issuing import licenses for U.S. chicken and turkey meat in a move expected to cost U.S. poultry producers almost a billion dollars in losses. Russia accounts for almost half of U.S. poultry exports, importing approximately 1 million tons of poultry from the United States last year. Ambassador Vershbow said the stakes were much higher than the endangered poultry exports, as the latest developments threatened to put a chill on Russian-American trade links ahead of the planned U.S.-Russian summit in May. Russian Premier Kasyanov insisted Tuesday that the poultry import ban was unrelated to the steel tariffs, stating that "there is no trade war between Russia and the United States." Russian officials were quick to add that imports of pork, beef and poultry from China would also be banned because of lax quality controls. ***** #8 Ex-Adviser Urges Russia to Rebuild March 5, 2002 By MARA D. BELLABY MOSCOW (AP) - A former U.S. national security adviser urged Russia on Tuesday to rebuild itself as a strong, successful democracy if it wants to provide a counterbalance to U.S. power. Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to former President Carter, told the former Cold War foe he understands its ``sense of resentment at the unusual position the United States occupies in the world today.'' But Brzezinski said it is Russia's task to create a new role for itself in Europe and in the international community. Brzezinski's plea at a Moscow conference echoes remarks by former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who urged a Russia-Europe relationship free of old barriers. ``If we improve relations between Russia and Germany, that is not aimed against anyone. It is a sensible act,'' said Kohl, who presided over German reunification in 1990. ``German-Russian relations have always been a yardstick of the political climate in Europe.'' Kohl's successor, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, has pursued closer ties with Russia based on a strong personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin - who speaks fluent German from his time as a KGB agent in former East Germany. Putin has also reached out to President Bush, by offering Russia's strong support after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. But despite warmer ties, many Russians remain wary of what they see as U.S. dominance and a march eastward by NATO and the European Union. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, created as a mutual defense against the Soviet Union, is expected to welcome later this year the three small Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The three made NATO membership a top foreign policy priority after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia strongly opposes their membership, which would bring the military alliance to its doorstep. ``NATO is a military bloc that carries out large-scale exercises in Poland and Norway. Who are those exercises aimed against?'' moderate Russian lawmaker Andrei Kokoshin asked Tuesday. He accused the United States of ``proceeding from a policy of supremacy in solving international problems,'' ignoring the views of Russia and other nations. But Brzezinski said that while he accepted that there was a ``disproportion'' of U.S. power in the world today, he bristled at the suggestion that the world was more stable during the Cold War when Soviet and American power balanced one another. ``I find it a little difficult to accept this sentimental nostalgia for that kind of situation,'' Brzezinski said. ``We are much more secure today than when we had pistols, cocked and loaded, pointed at each other's heads.'' He said the world should work toward building broader security alliances, and that the best counterweight to U.S. power would be ``the emergence of other powers that are at the same time democratic.'' ``I will be very happy to see a very successful, democratic Russia playing a major global role someday,'' Brzezinski said. ****** #9 Moscow Times March 6, 2002 'Arrogant' U.S. Comes Under Fire at Forum By Robin Munro Staff Writer A symposium with former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl as a guest of honor was supposed to assess Russia and Germany's place in a post-Sept. 11 world. But participants quickly realized that they could not define the roles without first figuring out where the United States fits in -- and the discussion, amid talk of the "arrogance of power," turned into a heated debate over whether Washington was acting as a global police officer. "I'm afraid that the U.S. will launch a unilateral attack on Iraq and that its action will be imperfect and a war will start," said Sergei Karaganov, head of the Council of Foreign and Defense Policy. "The United States, whether we like it or not, is the world's policeman," he said, adding, "It's worse than having no policeman at all." Kohl got a warm reception as he opened the symposium, organized by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, which is affiliated with the German Christian Democrat party. However, much of the interest was focused on the only U.S. representative, Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. "I can fully understand the sense of resentment at the unusual position that the United States occupies in the world today," Brzezinski said in response to barbed remarks. However, Russia and the world will not be secure if Russia continues to regret that the "imperial" period of its history is over, "and it's over," he said. Brzezinski said that U.S. dominance would likely continue for another 20 years but that the most successful balance to this would be the development of other strong international players. Europe does not have a consistent foreign policy while it is undergoing a process of amalgamation, but this could be rectified in a couple of decades, and Japan should also play a greater role than it does, he said. An economically strong and democratic Russia might be ready for such a role in about the same period of time; for the past 120 years, Russia has always been among the world's five most important nations and is likely to continue to be so, Brzezinski added. He rejected arguments by Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, and by Alexander Vladimirov, vice president of the Collegiums of Independent Military Experts, that world security was greater in Cold War times with two clearly defined poles of power. "The Soviet Union is dead, but Homo sovieticus is alive and well," Brzezinski said. "And I am glad to see that there is a healthy democracy in Russia, because you have been able to express in public ideas that are diametrically opposed to the policies of your president, Vladimir Putin." Asked by Putin's economic adviser Andrei Illarionov how he viewed the current geopolitical situation, Brzezinski described the improvements in weaponry of the past 300 years as having enabled a very small number of people to use weapons of mass destruction. The inhabitants of a contemporary, so-called Balkans situated between the Suez Canal and China's Xinjiang province and between Kazakhstan and Sri Lanka now have or are trying to get access to such weapons, he said. "My hope is that we will be able to sustain the degree of cooperation that was generated by Sep. 11," he said. "My sense is that we will because it signaled the beginning of a whole new phase of international politics." Earlier, Illarionov told Kohl that fears, misconceptions and apprehensions about potential partners was a major obstacle to Russia's integration in international economic, political and security structures. "They exist in Russia, Germany, the United States and elsewhere in the world," Illarionov said. Kohl replied that some matters take generations to work out but that attitudes are improving. The achievements of the past 15 years were thought impossible even by key figures such as himself who was one of the driving forces, he said. In what was perhaps the closest the symposium got toward defining Germany and Russia's place, Kohl declared that German-Russian relations are as good as they have ever been and that when relations between the two nations are good, it is good for all of Europe. ******* #10 Putin wants new cultural code to help children By Ron Popeski MOSCOW, March 5 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin called on Tuesday for a new code of cultural values to help guide children, now reading half as much as they were 10 years ago, through the complex society of post-Soviet Russia. Addressing leading cultural figures at a Kremlin meeting, Putin said new rules had to be established for television, dominated by crime and violence, and new communication means such as the Internet. He called for more money to be pumped into education programmes on television and for the creative elite to invent role models to help children "who find themselves one-on-one with a complicated world." "It is clear that we need a new system of teaching and social instruction in schools, in the home and in institutions dealing with children," Putin told the meeting of the Council for Culture and Art in televised comments. "And for that system, we need to create a new system of cultural values consistent with our times. And not only create it but also make it a part of the broad public consciousness." Ten years after the fall of communism, strict and often puritanical Soviet-era cultural values are in tatters. No new set of values has replaced them against a background of unbridled consumerism for those who have acquired wealth, and alcoholism and growing homelessness for those who have not, particularly outside the capital. Speakers at the meeting said children were reading half as much as they were a decade ago. People in rural areas, their monthly pay often equivalent to $50 or less, could not buy books or send their children to theatres. Putin said television channels were violating agreements by devoting insufficient air time to children's programmes. Educational programmes, he said, had all but ceased to exist. "It is up to the creative elite, if you like, to create such cultural examples able to evict squalid characters from the media," he said. "This is too sensitive an area to be approached crudely without taking account of the consequences. Whatever minimal savings the government may make, the losses (to society) could be colossal." Participants emerging from the meeting said a blueprint for further action had been agreed but no concrete decisions. "This is not so much about treating problems in isolation as finding something around which to unite our people," said Academy award-winning film-maker Nikita Mikhalkov. ******* #11 BBC Monitoring Russia's Putin calls for new cultural values in rearing, educating children Source: Russian Public TV (ORT), Moscow, in Russian 1200 gmt 5 Mar 02 [Presenter ] The problem of the rising generation was discussed in the Kremlin today. The president held a sitting of the board for culture and art today. Vladimir Putin said that having left behind the old Soviet ideology, society has not yet developed a new system of values and children, the most vulnerable, are the first to suffer as a result. [Vladimir Putin] We will concentrate on those problems which hinder the establishment of a normal, spiritual environment for the development of children and young people in general, an environment which is of such importance in raising a generation of fully-fledged citizens in the country. We have left behind the domination of ideology in upbringing. However, we have not managed to replace it by the right approaches, appropriate to modern conditions. The loneliness of children, their neglect even in families, devaluation of cultural values and models, educational shortcomings - all these are grounds for the growth in juvenile delinquency, drug addiction and neglect. A new system of teaching, a new system of upbringing are necessary in schools, families, in children's and public facilities. And for this system of teaching it is necessary to create a system of cultural values in keeping with our time. The task of the creative intelligentsia, the creative elite, if you like, is to set up such cultural models which could be able to force out wretched characters and topics from the mass media. The majority of central, national television channels violate their conditions of licence concerning broadcasting of programmes for children. In this connection, it is necessary to control the observance of licence requirements as a minimum and I want to draw the attention of the ministry to this. It is also necessary to develop principles of licensing, bearing in mind the expansion of broadcasting programmes for children. I consider that state TV channels need to return to the practice of scientific-cognitive and educational programmes. For instance, I consider the increase in prices for children's books, fiction and scientific literature which has taken place over the last few months to be absolutely intolerable. And it is also my fault and the fault of the government. ******* #12 eurasianet.org March 4, 2002 CRIMINAL ACTIVITY, NOT TERRORISM, MAIN SOURCE OF PANKISI INSTABILITY - OPINION POLL By Ariel Cohen A large majority of Georgians do not believe al Qaeda and Afghanistan-linked terrorists are the main problem in the Pankisi Gorge. Instead, they suspect Georgian officials of involvement in criminal wrongdoings in the region. These are two of several paradoxical findings of a recent opinion poll in Tbilisi. The Georgian Opinion Research Business International (GORBI), a political and commercial pollster, also found in its February 28 poll that while a majority of respondents believe that the United States is the country best suited to address the security concerns in the Pankisi area, over two-thirds believe that US involvement in security operations would cause Georgian-Russian relations to deteriorate. At the same time, "most Georgians see Russia as the only way to improve national and household economic conditions," according to a prepared statement released by GORBI. The polling results suggest that Georgian society views the looming deployment of US military advisors with mixed feelings. [See related EurasiaNet story]. Many Georgians believe that the Pankisi Gorge has become a center for drug trafficking and smuggling. Fully 44 percent believe that high-ranking Georgian officials may be involved in criminal activities in the gorge. This finding is consistent with very high numbers of Georgians, over 80 percent, who believe that their government institutions are corrupt. Only 21 percent of those polled believe that high ranking Russian officials may also be involved in criminal activities in Pankisi. Meanwhile, only 8.9 percent of respondents believe that terrorists from Afghanistan are residing in the Pankisi area. A large majority of Georgians seems anxious about the situation: 84.2 percent say they are "concerned" or "very concerned," and only 1.5 percent say they are "not concerned." 73.3 percent of respondents believe the situation is dangerous: 45.2 percent consider it "very dangerous" and 28.1 percent "dangerous." Only 2.5 percent of the polled believe it is "not dangerous." Despite a recent increase of sympathy towards Russia, 51 percent of those polled believe that the United States is the country most capable of bringing about an improvement of the security situation in the Pankisi region. Almost 28 percent think that Russia can improve Pankisi security, while only 11 percent believe Georgian forces can do the job. Just over 10 percent say Western Europe can help. Georgians distinguish between American military assistance and direct involvement on the ground: while a majority, 57.5 percent, would support US military advisors equipping and training Georgian forces for a mission in Pankisi, only 43.4 percent would support direct American action there. An overwhelming 75.1 percent would oppose Russian military action, while only 10 percent would support or "strongly support" Moscow's involvement. A plurality of Georgians (41. 5 percent) would prefer not to see foreign troops deploy in the Pankisi Gorge. If such deployment is unavoidable, Georgians would prefer Americans to Russians by a wide margin - 23.8 percent would favor US troops, while 9.4 percent would welcome Russian soldiers. Meanwhile, 22 percent would favor an international force under UN auspices. The notion of a joint US-EU-Russian military operation received only a lukewarm response from Georgians - only 44.3 percent would support it, while 26.7 would oppose it. The GORBI poll is based on interviews conducted February 28 with 500 Tbilisi residents, selected at random. There was no margin of error cited for the poll. GORBI was founded in 1992 and has broad experience in public opinion research throughout the Caucasus region. Editor's Note: Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation and author of Russian Imperialism: Development and Crisis (Praeger/Greenwood, 1998). ****** #13 BBC Monitoring Chechen web site sees first signs of Russia's changing attitude to Chechnya Source: Chechenpress web site, Tbilisi, in Russian 0700 gmt 5 Mar 02 5 March: It is not known yet whether these changes will translate into the weakening or tightening of measures, although it is obvious that there is no room for further tightening of the bolts in Chechnya. The civilian population of Chechnya has endured the most severe pressure of the Russian military over the last three years. Further clearance operations can only trigger large-scale civil disobedience. And there is not a great deal left to plunder. Anything that could have been physically taken, has been taken. The plight of refugees in Ingushetia and elsewhere has been assessed by independent observers as approaching the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. One of the most noticeable signs of the fact that it is high time Russia reconsidered its Chechen policy, has been put on the Unified Russia Party's agenda and the party intends to discussed the situation in Chechnya at its forthcoming council meeting. After Unity and Fatherland parties recently merged into Unified Russia, the new party has become a truly leading force on the entire pro-Kremlin political scene. Chairman of the party's general council Alexander Bespalov, explaining his colleagues' intention to focus on the Chechen issue, said on Monday [4 March] that "something wrong is going on in Chechnya and it is necessary to look into that." Bespalov indicated that the situation in Chechnya is so important to his party that one of the general council's meetings may take place in Groznyy itself. The party's representative in Chechnya, Lecha Magomadov, confirms that "the situation in Chechnya remains tense, while the counterterrorism operation drags on." [The pro-Moscow head of the Chechen administration] Akhmad Kadyrov spoke on Monday [4 March] against the continuation of the so-called "total clearance operations". He hinted that further struggle with the opposing forces must be waged by the so-called "Chechen militia" and "under the supervision of local authorities". Finally, the former Speaker of the Supreme Council of the RSFSR [Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic], Ruslan Khasbulatov, met journalists again on Monday and reiterated his suggestion to provide the Chechen Republic with the status of an international autonomy. Khasbulatov said : "As a matter of fact, Chechnya is no longer a constituent part of the Russian Federation. The people of Chechnya do not trust the Russian federal authorities at all and would like to distance themselves from them and seek an international guarantee!" . While giving credit to his political tactfulness and translating his statement into plain language, one has to say that the ex-speaker of the Russian parliament is openly speaking about a nationwide support for Chechnya's independence. Moreover, Khasbulatov mentions that it is necessary to start the withdrawal of Russian troops from Chechnya immediately so that the situation in Chechnya could eventually be controlled by such international organizations as the OSCE, PACE, etc. Khasbulatov believes that the problem of a post-war restoration in Chechnya must also be controlled by the international community, including the UN and the Organization of Islamic Conference. In the meantime, certain Russian observers think that the sudden return of Russia's former and current politicians to the Chechen theme is also explained by the tensions that Moscow has encountered in connection with a potential US presence in Georgia. The State Duma committee on the CIS affairs has prepared a draft statement about the possible deployment of American troops in Georgia. According to the deputy chairman of the Duma committee, Anatoliy Chekhoyev, should this happen authors of the statement are going to suggest that the Duma ought to consider the issue of Russia's endorsement of the sovereignty of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Observers say that if this threat of Russia materializes, instability will prevail all along the Russian-Caucasus border for many years, even if peace is restored in Chechnya. But if not, the forces of the Caucasus resistance can become the spark capable of igniting a major war in the Caucasus. ******* #14 The Moscow Tribune March 1, 2002 Website to integrate all info on Moscow By Dmitry Polikarpov Have you ever dreamed about reaching every Moscow service, official organisation or even apartment building via Internet, with a single click? Sounds unrealistic? Quite so. However, with the launch of the new information and inquiry system molnet.ru earlier this month, this distant dream seems somewhat closer. The service will feature all available information about Moscow and the Moscow area. "Our idea is to integrate all the services, both official and commercial, all information that could be useful to Muscovites, in a single place on the Internet so that it can be reached at one click. We hope that in the future it will be possible to find any information concerning Moscow and the area on our website," said Kirill Ivanov, spokesman for the www.molnet.ru project, in an interview with The Moscow Tribune. The Comcor corporation, over 50 per cent controlled by the Moscow city government, sponsors the project. Comcor is a major Moscow company that constructs telecommunications and services optical fibre networks. The new informational website allows visitors to inquire about any kind of information, which is classified in accordance with the territorial principle. It is also possible to place any official, commercial or private information concerning specific Moscow areas. "This is an interactive system that relies and expands through active cooperation coming from all those interested. This website is not only designed for Muscovites, but also designed by Muscovites," Ivanov said. According to Ivanov, the new service not only allows one to find official organisations, housing and communal services, shops, and theatres or cinemas, but also offers an in-depth scheme featuring the shortest and the most reasonable way to reach the place by car or using city transport. Those interested may also learn whether their apartment buildings will soon be demolished in accordance with the Moscow general reconstruction plan, ask city officials questions or make specific complaints. "The main obstacle to our project is the low level of Internet development in Moscow. However, we have already started receiving calls even from housing and communal services wishing to integrate their pages with our portal. This means that in some Moscow areas it has become possible to contact a local pipe fitter via Internet," Ivanov said. ******* #15 From: pattym@plang.com (Patty Mulrane) Subject: New book: All the Views Fit to Print Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2002 All the Views Fit to Print Changing Images of the U.S. in Pravda Political Cartoons, 1917-1991 By Kevin J. McKenna All the Views Fit to Print is a comprehensive, century-long study of the changing images of the United States in Pravda political cartoons, appearing from the newspaper's founding (1912) through its final days as the official news organ of the Community Party of the Soviet Union (1991). Based on quantitative as well as qualitative content analysis of Pravda's editorial caricatures, the book provides a lively study of the newspaper's agitational and propaganda mission to define and reflect the "American way of life" for its Soviet readers. This book is illustrated with nearly one hundred political caricatures, as well as eleven tables depicting cartoon themes and trends over nearly a century of anti-American agitational-propaganda. Kevin J. McKenna received his Ph.D. in Slavic languages and literatures from the University of Colorado. He currently teaches Russian language, literature, and culture in the German and Russian Department at the University of Vermont, where he also serves as Director of the Area and International Studies Program. He has been published in journals on the subjects of Russian political cartoons, eighteenth-century Russian literature, and paremiography and is co-author of Reading Russian Newspapers and editor of Proverbs in Russian Literature: From Catherine the Great to Alexander Solzhenitsyn. Paperback . $39.95 (US) . 256 pages . ISBN 0-8204-50081 . November 2000 (ORDERING INFORMATION IS BELOW!) Attention Teachers! If you'd like to examine this book for possible course use you can do so for 30 days. If you choose not to adopt the book for your class you can either return it to us or purchase it for your own collection. Table of Contents List of Figures List of Tables Acknowledgments Introduction Chapter One: Russian Propaganda and the Political Cartoon Chapter Two: Images of the United States, 1917-1945 Pravda Cartoons (1919-1943) Chapter Three: Pravda Political Cartoons in the Early Years of the Cold War Chapter Four: U.S. Images in Years of Peaceful Coexistence and Detente Pravda Cartoons (1945-75) Chapter Five: American Images in the Reagan Gorbachev Era Epilogue: The End of the Communist Party-The Fall of Pravda Pravda Cartoons (1982-91) Bibliography Index TO ORDER Contact Peter Lang Publishing/USA @ 1800-770-LANG (within the US) or 212-647-7706 (outside of US). Or fax us at 212-647-7707 or send an email to order at customerservice@plang.com or simply go to our web site www.peterlangusa.com to order Kevin McKenna's book! ******* #16 Subject: Announcement of Ukraine Conference Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2002 EastWest Institute announces a conference "Ukraine and the West 2002: Policies for Progress" on April 27, 2002 in Kyiv. The confernece will bring together policymakers and thought leaders from Ukraine, Europe and North America to focus on the strategic issues facing Ukraine and its integration into Western institutions. Former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari is chairing the conference and will give the opening presentation, entitled "A Vision for a Broader Europe: A Place for Ukraine." The conference will take advantage of the political energy coming out of the March parliamentary elections and deal with the political, economic, and security agendas for both Ukraine and the West. For more information or to register for the conference, please see the http://psp.iews.org/events.html or send an e-mail to ytretyak@iews.org ****** #17 Jamestown Foundation Monitor March 5, 2002 The "Strangler of NTV" will represent Leningrad Oblast in Federation Council LENINGRAD APPOINTS VETERAN LOBBYIST AS ITS SENATOR. Last week Alfred Kokh was elected to represent Leningrad Oblast in the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the Russian parliament. Kokh, one of the most controversial Russian politicians, is chairman of the board of the Montes Auri investment fund. He served as a deputy prime minister in 1997 but hit the headlines only when he headed Gazprom-Media, which the Kremlin used not too long ago to subordinate Russia's main independent television channel, NTV (Russian agencies, February 26). Kokh was assumed to have dropped out of politics after that affair, because of alleged contradictions with Gazprom-Media's parent company, the state-controlled natural gas monopoly Gazprom. His return is therefore all the more remarkable. Legislators in Leningrad Oblast showed particular interest in Kokh, and rejected his competitor, even though the latter had been nominated by the governor of the oblast himself (Polit.ru, February 27). Deputy V. Leonov commented: "Kokh is an outstanding person, a personality known above all for cynicism and odiousness: But better the devil you know than the angel you don't." Fellow deputy V. Zakurdaev was even more to the point: "We don't need someone who follows the letter of the law, but a lobbyist who knows how to get money" (Gazeta, February 27). Kokh himself promised to lobby effectively for the economic interests of the oblast. He has himself, along with his partners, already invested US$10 million in building the local port in Ust-Lug (Izvestia, February 27). Some observers link Kokh's decision to enter parliament with his failure in the media business and attribute his appointment to foolishness on the part of Leningrad's legislators (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February 27). This is debatable, however, given that lobbying has been a key activity of the Federation Council since the start of this year, when regional executive and legislative leaders lost their ex officio seats in the upper chamber (Vedomosti, February 27). Observers point to another aspect of the Federation Council's activity that may not be without importance for Kokh. Those entering the council these days are doing so not merely in order to acquire immunity from prosecution and avoid unpleasantness from the Prosecutor's Office. They see parliament as a forum where they can periodically attract the attention of a wider public (Polit.ru, March 1). As a senator, Kokh will be able to take his bearings and keep himself in the public eye while he decides where next to exercise his political abilities. ******* #18 Caucasus: Chechens See No Threat In U.S.-Georgia Antiterror Drive By Jean-Christophe Peuch While the United States is preparing to dispatch up to 200 military advisers to Georgia, officially to train local armed forces to combat terrorism, there is still uncertainty over the real motives behind the decision. Despite Tbilisi's claims that the U.S. military personnel will not be involved in military operations, Russia has apparently not given up hope that the presence of American troops might bolster its war in the neighboring republic of Chechnya. RFE/RL correspondent Jean-Christophe Peuch discusses Washington's initiative in the context of the U.S.-Russian relationship with Ilyas Akhmadov, the foreign minister of the Chechen separatist leadership. Prague, 5 March 2002 (RFE/RL) -- The late-February announcement that the United States will send advisers and equipment to help the Georgian army combat terrorism has raised speculation that the move might harm the leadership of Russia's breakaway republic of Chechnya. "The Americans are preparing to launch a military operation against the Chechens. Without us," wrote "Rossiiskaya Gazeta," the Russian government's official newspaper, on 1 March. Since Russia's second Chechen military campaign started more than two years ago, the Kremlin has claimed that thousands of armed separatists are hiding in the Pankisi Gorge, a mountainous area in Georgia that borders Chechnya to the south. Moscow has insisted Tbilisi take steps to evict them. Only last fall did Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze first admit that several dozen Chechen fighters might be using Pankisi as a rear base. On 11 February, the U.S. charge d'affaires in Tbilisi, Philip Remler, told a Georgian weekly that Washington has information showing that a few dozen Al-Qaeda fugitives from Afghanistan have sought refuge in Pankisi and are in contact with an Arab-born Chechen commander known as Khattab. News that the U.S. has apparently decided to bring its global antiterror war to the Caucasus sparked an initial wave of public outcry in Moscow. But Russian President Vladimir Putin later said he sees "no tragedy" in a U.S. military presence. Putin's remark could indicate Moscow has decided to make the best of it in the hope the U.S. will help contain the Chechen resistance. As Russian political expert Vyacheslav Nikonov wrote recently in the Moscow-based "Trud" daily: "Our claims that Chechnya and Georgia are home to nests of international terrorists -- including to Al-Qaeda fighters -- are being fully vindicated. The elimination of the Pankisi-based [terrorist] nest will help us reach a final victory in Chechnya. And nobody in the West will have any reason now to criticize us for that." However, the Chechen leadership also sees the U.S. deployment in Georgia as a good thing. In a telephone interview with RFE/RL, the foreign minister of the Chechen separatist leadership, Ilyas Akhmadov, said he welcomes the U.S. decision, calling it a "stabilizing factor for the region." Although he does not rule out that some Al-Qaeda militants might have appeared in Pankisi in recent weeks, Akhmadov believes Washington will now be in a better position to see that there are no organized links between Chechnya's independence fighters and Osama bin Laden's terrorist network. "Once there, the Americans will see what these 'terrorist bases' Russia keeps talking about really are. They will see that [we have] no links with Al-Qaeda. They will be able to see for themselves what the real situation is," Akhmadov said. "Up until now, unfortunately, [the U.S. perception] was mostly based on information provided by the Russian secret services. The presence of U.S. troops will also prevent Russia from bombing the [Pankisi] area and destabilizing the situation there with complete impunity. The situation there is dangerous enough without that." Akhmadov was referring to a border incident that occurred in November, when unidentified warplanes bombed Pankisi. Tbilisi claims the aircraft were Russian and violated Georgia's airspace -- a charge Moscow denies. The incident elicited strong criticism from Washington. Most Western analysts generally agree that one of Washington's aims in sending military personnel to Georgia is to try to defuse a confrontation between Moscow and Tbilisi. They say the U.S. is deeply interested in the security of the Caucasus region, both to protect its regional oil projects and to secure a safe supply route to its new military bases in Central Asia. Shevardnadze seemed to sustain these views, saying the arrival of U.S. advisers is part of a long-standing plan to strengthen Tbilisi's independence and territorial integrity. Akhmadov also appeared to cast the move in broad geopolitical terms. Asked what he believes the main U.S. objective is, he said: "The situation in the region is explosive, and this goes back a long way. It goes back to 1992, and it concerns not only the Transcaucasus region [Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan] but also the entire Caucasus. I think the Americans have finally decided what their policy regarding the Caucasus should be and have started implementing it. The time has come now, and the Americans have just taken the first step." U.S. President George W. Bush has said one of Washington's objectives in sending military personnel to Georgia is to combat international terrorism. In comments made recently in Paris, Akhmadov reportedly praised Washington's apparent efforts to distinguish between Chechen separatists and alleged terrorists and to press Moscow to enter Chechen peace talks. But a few days before, in Washington, he also noted that the U.S.-Russia alliance against international terrorism is fueling Moscow's sense of impunity in Chechnya. The Bush administration has come under fire both at home and abroad for voicing only mild criticism of Russia's crackdown in Chechnya. Critics say Washington tack is prompted by fears of offending Russia, a valuable partner in its war against terrorism. In late February, the State Department ordered the Broadcasting Board of Governors -- the federal agency responsible for overseeing U.S. international broadcasting -- to postpone indefinitely the inaugural transmissions, set for 28 February, of RFE/RL's North Caucasus Service, including broadcasts in Chechen. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said the Bush administration fears the broadcast could hamper possible peace negotiations between Russia and Chechnya. Both sides held brief talks in November in Moscow, but they have not met again since then. Akhmadov questioned the U.S. attempts to justify what he described as a "bureaucratic concession" to Russia, which opposes the North Caucasus broadcasts: "Despite all my esteem for the State Department, I cannot describe these explanations as other than absurd. There is no prospect for negotiations at this stage, and this has nothing to do with the decision to postpone the inauguration of the [North Caucasus] service. It just reflects the general [U.S.] policy regarding the [Chechen] resistance, Maskhadov, and Chechnya in general. It clearly shows that the new [U.S.] administration has made little progress toward a reassessment of the Chechen problem." Another matter of concern to the Chechen leadership is the military help they say Russia has recently received from its partners in the antiterrorism coalition. Akhmadov said Russian troops have recently received sophisticated equipment that allows them to better intercept telephone conversations. Asked by RFE/RL to elaborate, Akhmadov said: "We suspect that a Western European country -- or maybe the U.S. itself -- is helping Russia within the framework of the new fight against terrorism. I have expressed my concerns to the State Department, but I haven't received any reply so far. Of course, I know I should not expect a reply. I can assure you that our suspicions are not unfounded, but I do not want to elaborate on how we conceived them." Chairing a meeting of Russia's Security Council on 26 February, Putin gave no indication that Russia might step down its military action in Chechnya in the near future. On the contrary, he said one of the goals of federal troops there is "to eliminate the heads of the armed groups and to cut off their weapons and money supply channels." ******* #19 Baltimore Sun March 5, 2002 U.S. believes Russia is shifting on Iraq White House official says Moscow appears ready to accept possible attack By Mark Matthews Sun National Staff WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is becoming more confident that Russian President Vladimir V. Putin will not oppose possible military action against Iraq, a senior official said yesterday. If Russia were to agree, it would mark a major shift from the policy that the Kremlin has pursued since the late 1990s, when Moscow became Baghdad's principal defender in the United Nations Security Council and pushed for an early end to sanctions against Iraq. The administration is beginning to prepare the diplomatic ground for military action to remove President Saddam Hussein if he continues to bar U.N. weapons inspectors from Iraq or blocks their access to sensitive sites. Unlike the Clinton administration, which used airstrikes merely to try to force Iraq to cooperate with the inspections, the Bush team has made clear that its goal in any new military action would be to end Hussein's regime. The senior official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, has been involved in recent talks with the Kremlin. He said conversations with Russian officials indicate that the kind of Russian cooperation already evident in the U.S.-led war on terrorism might now extend to Iraq. "I think they acknowledge our analysis that if the Iraqis refuse to let the inspectors in, or obstruct the inspectors once they are in, they're in violation of 687," the official said, referring to the U.N. resolution laying out the terms of the cease-fire that ended the 1991 Persian Gulf war. Russia also agrees that if the cease-fire has been violated, "the authorization to use force comes back into effect," the official said. A Russian Embassy spokesman, Yevgeniy Khorishko, declined to comment on the U.S. official's statements other than to say, "We are cooperating with the United States in the U.N. on the Iraq issue." Even if Russia supported military strikes to force Iraqi compliance on inspections, getting the Kremlin to agree to the forced removal of Hussein would be "a lot harder" the American official said, because of historically close ties between Russia and Iraq. "But on the other hand, the cooperation the Russians have shown since Sept. 11 in a whole range of things - operations in the Central Asian republics, operations in Georgia - are things that nobody would have predicted pre-Sept. 11. So I don't even rule that out necessarily." Since President Bush's State of the Union speech, in which he labeled Iraq part of an "axis of evil" along with Iran and North Korea, U.S. officials have made it increasingly clear that the president is intent on what they call "regime change" in Iraq. But they have said no decision has been made on when or how to do it. The official who spoke in an interview yesterday said military action, if it occurs, would not come before the May summit between Bush and Putin. Even if Russia acquiesces, U.S. military action against Iraq faces opposition in Europe and among a number of Arab leaders, who would face strong domestic opposition to an American attack against an Arab state. And because Hussein himself would be threatened by the United States in a way that he wasn't during the 1991 war, the United States needs to prepare for the possibility that he would take desperate measures to save his regime - perhaps by unleashing an arsenal of chemical or biological weapons against U.S. forces, Israel or Gulf Arab states. "The Hitler-in-the-bunker mentality - 'If I'm going down, I'm going to take everything else with me' - is not something you can discount," the senior administration official said yesterday. "And therefore the threat to other nearby countries in particular is something you have to worry about before you make any of these decisions." Vice President Dick Cheney's trip to the region this month "will be part of the process of finding out what people think so we can get a better handle on that." In an apparent move to prevent or forestall a U.S. military campaign, Iraq shows signs of relenting on its refusal for the past three years to allow U.N. inspectors back into the country. Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri is due to meet Thursday in New York with U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan. Most U.S. officials don't believe Saddam Hussein will allow inspections that might uncover weapons of mass destruction or weapons-development that he has been determined to keep hidden. But U.S. allies see a value to trying to get the inspectors back into Iraq. And Secretary of State Colin L. Powell indicated over the weekend that he did, too. "I have no illusions about the ability of inspectors to find everything, but I think they can play a useful role," Powell said in a CNN interview. The senior official added, "It's important to go through the exercise one more time so that there's no doubt in anybody's mind that the Iraqis are never going to really comply with 687, which requires free and unfettered access to the inspectors." The official's optimistic assessment of a changed Russian attitude toward Iraq is supported by some Washington analysts who watch the Kremlin closely. Dimitri K. Simes, president of the Nixon Center, said, "What choice does [Putin] have? He's not going to go to war against the United States. He's not going to postpone the summit, and if [the military action occurs] after the summit, he's not going to reject U.S. help in joining" the World Trade Organization. But Simes said it is important for the Bush administration "to appreciate Russian concerns," particularly the likely negative reaction by the Russian public, as well as Russian economic interests in Iraq, which owes a multibillion-dollar debt to Moscow and has also signed long-term oil-development contracts with Russian firms. The United States should assure Russia that it would press a post-Hussein regime in Iraq to fulfill its obligations to Russia and that it would "not promote American companies at the expense of Russian companies," Simes said. The U.S. official, referring to Russia's economic concerns, said, "I can't believe that we wouldn't be willing to accommodate them. We're not trying to exclude them from trade with Iraq or anything else, or to prevent them from getting their debts paid off. It may well be easier for them to achieve those objectives with regime change in Baghdad than it would be otherwise." Lilia Shevtsova, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia wants to be America's "ally and partner" on Iraq, but is "unhappy about the unilateralist overdrive." "If the inspectors are not returned, then Russia definitely will support the American approach - even military action," she said. ******* Web page for CDI Russia Weekly: http://www.cdi.org/russia Archive for Johnson's Russia List: http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson With support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the MacArthur Foundation A project of the Center for Defense Information (CDI) 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW Washington DC 20036