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[Second Issue of the Day]
#9
Asia Times
February 6, 2002
Moscow revitalizes its old priorities in Asia
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - Russia has dismissed George W Bush's "axis of evil" claims, and appears to be looking to strengthen its old Asian alliances, notably with India and "evil" Iran, to counterbalance United States clout in Central Asia.
Moscow came up with an initially muted but subsequently critical response to the US president's declaration that Iraq, North Korea and Iran were an "axis of evil". Russia was not going to cut its military ties with Iran, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov stated in Rome on February 4. Russia sells conventional arms to Iran - "it's a usual commercial practice and we won't stop it", Ivanov said, adding, "I don't think that Iran, Iraq and North Korea could be described as an 'axis of evil'."
Konstantin Kosachev, deputy head of the Fatherland-All Russia pro-Kremlin faction in parliament, described the "axis of evil" claims as a mistake. Moscow should go ahead with its military ties with Iran, he said. If Russia sides with the US, it will mean ditching Russia's potential for striking international partnership, he argued on Tuesday.
Apart from Iran, Russia has long been nurturing ties with Iraq and North Korea. Some Russian officials and lawmakers argue that Bush had been too harsh in his State of the Union address and that Russia should pursue its policies regardless US warnings.
Russia was interested in economic and political cooperation with Iraq, Ramazan Abdulatipov, head of a Russian parliamentary delegation, stated in Baghdad, also on Tuesday. The Iraqi leadership "is ready to become Russia-oriented", claimed Abdulatipov after meeting up with Iraqi's Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz.
Russia is owed a huge debt by Iraq, estimated at nearly US$10 billion. At the same time, Russian oil companies, both private and state-run, want to tap into Iraq's lucrative oil resources. Not surprisingly, Russian politicians are weary of the threat of US air strikes against Iraq. Dmitry Rogozin, head of the parliament's international affairs committee, said that US preventive strikes against Iraq, without UN approval, could destabilize the international situation.
It is understood that Russia dismisses "axis of evil" rhetoric because the Kremlin is unhappy about increasing US influence in Central Asia. The US military presence there causes "agitation if not a scandal among Russia's politicians", Russia's official RIA news agency commented earlier this month. Now Moscow does not believe US promises and most Russians view the US military bases in Central Asia as a "tragic event, signifying the demise of the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] and end of centuries-long Russian influence in Central Asia".
Moreover, the American "seizure" of Central Asia has a strategic dimension, since a possible deployment of US anti-missile systems at Khanabad base in Uzbekistan could affect Russian strategic facilities throughout vast areas, RIA commented. Although Russian officials are yet to come up with harsh criticism on the record, the comments of the Kremlin's official mouthpiece are indicative of what is to come.
Besides rejecting "axis of evil" pronouncements, Moscow presumably intends to boost its traditional alliances in Asia to counterbalance the US presence in Central Asia. For instance, the Kremlin is apparently prioritizing its Indian policy. On February 4, Russia's Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov met with Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes in New Delhi to discuss defense ties. He also visited Kabul and pledged help to rebuild Afghanistan. Moreover, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov has arrived in India to discuss defense, including arms purchases. And Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to visit India later this year.
Moscow, a traditional ally of New Delhi, is the largest supplier of arms to India and India's orders for Russian warships, jetfighters and tanks are estimated at $10 billion. Now Russia is ready to offer India new arms deals, Klebanov stated. He also hailed the "long-term strategic partnership" with India, which does not depend on international developments such as the September 11 attacks.
Coincidentally or not, the Indian military has offered Tajikistan a measure of military assistance. On Tuesday, the head of the Indian Air Force, Satish Jain, met Tajik Defense Minister Sherali Khairullayev in Dushanbe and offered technical assistance to upgrade Aini military airfield near the Tajik capital. According to the Tajik Defense Ministry, the French military had previously pledged to rebuild Aini but later withdrew the offer.
Meanwhile, foreign ministers of the four Central Asian states met in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, to discuss the launch of a "Central Asian Cooperation" forum - the only multilateral post-Soviet body in Central Asia which excludes Russia. The new organization is supposed to foster regional political, economic and security cooperation, Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Muratbek Imanaliyev stated on Tuesday.
Last December, the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan held a summit meeting in the Uzbekistan capital, Tashkent. They agreed that the Central Asian Economic Commonwealth, one of the groups within the Commonwealth of Independent States, would be transformed into the "Central Asian Cooperation" organization.
The Central Asian states are using their latest get-together to highlight their solidarity. Uzbekistan does not have any territorial disputes with other Central Asian states, Uzbek Deputy Foreign Minister Ilkhom Nimatov announced in Bishkek. In 2001, Uzbekistan signed border delimitation agreements with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, he said.
Kyrgyzstan's Imanaliyev indicated that the new body would not launch any new security initiatives or multilateral military units - despite the fact that Kyrgyzstan and the US are holding joint military maneuvers from February 4-14 (only 100 personnel from both nations are taking part).
Not surprisingly, Moscow has dispatched an envoy to Central Asia to lobby in favor of yet another grouping, the Russia-sponsored Eurasian Economic Commonwealth (EEC). It was created last June and includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. On February 4, the EEC secretary-general, Grigory Rapota, met with Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov to remind him that the EEC is aimed at "long-term and stable integration".
Moscow, thus, is moving towards revitalizing the old priorities of its Asian policy. It remains to be seen whether the re-emerging alliances will prove viable or strong enough to counterbalance the US presence in the region.
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