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The Russia Journal
February 1-7, 2002
Kremlin and China face new Afghan decision
By JOHN HELMER
President Vladimir Putin and his ministers have been watching for months to see what role China decides to play in Afghanistan, sources in Moscow have told The Russia Journal. But Chinese reluctance to support the United States’ military campaign is now pushing Russian policy-makers into re-evaluating the results of the three-month campaign.
"The Chinese have been correct in not playing an overt role in Afghanistan," said Dmitry Yevstafiev, an expert on Central Asian security at the PIR Center, an independent security-studies group in Moscow. Reflecting the ongoing debate inside the Kremlin over Russian interests in Afghanistan and Central Asia, Yevstafiev said, "The Russians made a mistake of involving themselves too directly with the Northern Alliance."
Yevstafiev said following the Sept. 11 events, Russian officials were hoping to work out a cooperative and consensual approach with Beijing with the help of the Shanghai Six, which includes Russia, China and the Central Asian states of Kazakstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Speaking in Washington on Sept. 27, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told The Russia Journal the Kremlin favored "close coordination between all the democratic states in this area."
"The approach will be continued during the meeting in Shanghai and Putin’s first official visit to the United States in mid-November," he added.
According to Yevstafiev, Putin then decided to give greater emphasis to supporting the U.S. and Western European military campaign in Afghanistan. On the other hand, China – according to the view in Moscow – decided to be more cautious. In September, China faced a choice, Yevstafiev said. As the United States increasingly based its Afghan operations in India, China could increase its involvement through direct relations with the Afghan opposition to the Taliban, the Northern Alliance. It could cooperate with the Americans. Or it could work through the Shanghai Six."
According to Yevstafiev, Russian officials expected to see an increase in Chinese deliveries of munitions and rockets to the Northern Alliance forces. He said that both China and Russia had been supplying Soviet-era equipment and ordnance to the Northern Alliance prior to the September events. The deliveries have been conducted through commercial channels and regional middlemen.
A Kremlin source told The Russia Journal the Russian arms shipped included the portable and mobile anti-aircraft missile and artillery systems Igla and Shilka, as well as anti-tank weapons and transport helicopters. "The aim is to create the capacity to match the firepower and mobility of the Talibs," the source said.
Yevstafiev said the Northern Alliance has "definitely received ground-to-ground arms from China in the past."
However, since September, as U.S.-financed Russian deliveries accelerated, Yevstafiev claims there has been no evidence of Chinese arms shipments. "It didn’t happen," he said.
Now Russian policy-makers must reassess the outcome of the military campaign to determine the impact on Russian interests in Central Asia, Yevstafiev said. "The Taliban and al-Qaida leadership have vanished. It’s one thing if they have gone south to Asia or Africa. It’s quite another if they have moved north into Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan or Uzbekistan."
Russian policy-makers who favor a closer alliance with China are reportedly concerned that the Western campaign in Afghanistan could promote an upsurge of trouble in the Central Asian republics. China’s concern is similar, Yevstafiev said.
"For weeks, the Russian approach emphasized the Western orientation. Now the policy is changing slightly. Chinese involvement will grow if there is a spread of fundamentalism to the Central Asian republics. Russia’s orientation to China would intensify accordingly."
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