#6045
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BBC Monitoring
Russia manoeuvres over energy export routes to
safeguard position in Central Asia
Source: Panorama, p9, Almaty, in Russian 27 Jan 02
In its attempt to counteract the growing US presence in Central Asia, Russia might threaten the Central Asian republics with cutting their gas export routes across its territory if they fail to be loyal to Moscow, Panorama commented on 25 January. During his recent meeting with Turkmen President Saparmyrat Nyyazow, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that an alliance of gas producers be set up between the Central Asian republics and Russia. However, all his proposals might imply a threats to the Central Asian states' infrastructure, as all their gas export routes pass through Russian territory. The following is the text of the report entitled "Moscow, in an attempt to counteract the strengthening of the US position in the Central Asian region, will use the dependence of its infrastructure on Russia".
As was to be expected, Moscow, in an attempt to counteract the strengthening of the US position in the Central Asian region of late, will use the dependence of its infrastructure on Russia as an argument.
In this context, one has to consider the topic of gas, raised by [Russian President] Vladimir Putin during his talks with his Turkmen counterpart, [Saparmyrat] Nyyazow. According to the mass media, Mr Putin spoke about the need to create a regional alliance of gas producers which would unite not only the countries that are extracting gas for export, but, also those across the territories of which export pipelines pass. This, the Russian president thinks, would help us to pursue a coordinated policy in extracting, exporting and transporting gas. Obviously, the talk might be about such countries as, on the one hand, major gas exporters - Russia and Turkmenistan, (which are in the first and second places in the world in terms of explored gas reserves, respectively) - and on the other hand Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, across whose territories international pipelines pass. Russia, incidentally, may come out both in the first as well as the second category, taking into account the fact that the only gas pipeline which provides access for Central Asian gas to the international market also passes across its territory. Obviously, the essence of the issues raised by Putin is behind this. There might be a proposal as well as a warning hidden behind the words quoted by news agencies about "unconditionally taking into consideration the interests of all the members".
First, obviously, this might be connected with certain profitable proposals on the transit of Turkmen and Uzbek gas via the system of [Russian] Gazprom. What concession will Russia make over this? First, there might be talks about concessions in prices for pumping gas. Second, Moscow may propose to the countries in the region that their quota be expanded in its gas pipeline, or even maybe to take part in major joint projects, such as the Blue Stream [pipeline] for supplying gas to the Turkish market. This is in no way outrageous, given that it was decided in Russia itself to start gradually increasing prices for gas on the domestic market (even if only by 25 per cent, as was decided by the Russian government), that means that it will become more profitable for gas producers to sell their gas in the very Russia where the price for gas was considerably lower till now than on foreign markets. Accordingly, a kind of niche in export projects might appear, in which Central Asian countries might be invited to participate, in exchange for a certain loyalty to Moscow in the standoff that is arising between Russia and the USA in the region.
The words spoken by the Russian leader might simultaneously contain an implicit threat: if the countries in the region take on too strong a pro-American tendency, Russia will be able to "put pressure" on them through creating difficulties or even by cutting access to export infrastructure. The issue of gas pipelines more concerns Turkmenistan, which is preserving its traditional neutrality on the presence of US bases in Central Asia for the time being, but Moscow might drop a "hint" for [the Turkmen capital] Asgabat not to change its foreign political traditions.
Apart from that, the issue of gas pipelines might serve as a "mirror" in which each of the countries in the region will see something of its own in terms of what Moscow wants to signal to it: the infrastructure in all post-Soviet republics in Central Asia depend on Russia.
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