#6038
[Second Issue of the Day]
#15
BBC Monitoring
Central Asian nations may prefer USA to Russia - Tajik
newspaper
Source: Biznes i Politika, Dushanbe, in Russian 18 Jan 02
The Central Asian leaders are beginning to realize the advantages of the United States' presence in the region, says Tajik newspaper Biznes i Politika. They expect it to result in greater Western investment and financial aid, the newspaper says. According to Biznes i Politika, Russia may not be able to compete with the USA as far as economic assistance is concerned. The following is the text of the article on 18 January. Subheadings have been inserted editorially:
Following a long period of thinking over the Central Asia geopolitical drawing board, the Russian leadership - running out of time - has stated that "Russia must increase its presence in Central Asia".
What is this? Is this a warning to the Central Asian leaders who have felt euphoric and rushed into the embrace of the very rich "American uncle" or a challenge to the world's only superpower - the USA - marking a new stage in the "big game" in the Central Asian geopolitical arena? What will the Russian leadership undertake in order to increase its presence in this region - [resort to] economic and political pressure or [provide] powerful economic support? Central Asian developments are causing a large number of questions and problems to arise.
US presence desirable for Central Asia
For the Central Asian countries themselves, the presence of America is more desirable than that of Russia. Certain countries in the region have already begun to realize the advantages of cooperation with the USA. This is primarily true as regards economic cooperation. The Central Asian ruling elites have no other route to take. Firstly, the external enemy which is embodied by "Islamic extremism" coming from Afghanistan and which makes it possible to control the public opinion in the region, is disappearing. Acute social and economic problems are coming into the forefront. Large injections of financial aid are needed to deal with them. That is why for the ruling elites in the region's countries, alliance with the USA means staying in power and getting enormous financial aid. Taking into account that the powerful US propaganda machine is already in operation in this area - that is to say that it is laying out the prospects for cooperation between the region's countries and the USA, it is possible to believe that the choice has already been made. Thanks to the efforts of the US media, the interest of large Western economic associations in the region has sharply increased. The positive image of the Central Asian countries will attract additional investment. Thanks to the USA, the region's countries and even Russia are getting rid of the problems of contagious trouble and drugs coming from Afghanistan. Furthermore, economic restoration work in Afghanistan is of strategic significance for the Central Asian countries. The US presence in the region is a guarantee that interethnic and interstate relations will harmonize.
The trend is already visible. For example, relations between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have improved. It is possible to say that it is very important for the USA that peace should be established in the region and all conflicts should be settled or the conflict zones should be localized. The fact that the competing Central Asian countries will very soon begin to interact economically and politically is more a reality than just an idea. Take relations between Greece and Turkey which are the United States' partners. These countries have various claims towards each other but they are developing good-neighbourly relations under the United States' mediation. The same will happen in Central Asia.
USA needs its presence in the region
Stability in Central Asia is a guarantee that the US strategic ideas will be successfully carried out in the Middle East. There is a different question - how will the USA and Russia, which wants to increase its influence - interact in the region? The USA will not want to share a tasty bit such as Central Asia with anyone else. The stakes are too high. Even if the US political leadership wants to work in tandem with Russia, the US transnational corporations will never agree to this. It is noteworthy that the US powerful economic circles have contributed to the intensification of the US influence in the region. As many experts in political sciences have correctly predicted, the struggle of cultural-historical cycles for resources is an attribute of the new century. The struggle has increased over the globalization period. There are economic motives behind every combat action in the Middle East. The USA has paid a high price for this and it will not give Central Asia away for nothing. There is a question. What was the basis for the statement by Russian State Duma speaker Gennadiy Seleznev that "Russia must increase its presence in Central Asia"? Was it based on Russia's actual capability or was this just a populist slogan?
The usage of the verb "increase" perhaps suggests political pressure, something the Russian leadership has often used towards the CIS countries. It is true that this will slow down the development of certain countries in the CIS. The effect of this will be that firstly these countries will develop strong immunity and lose any desire to cooperate with Russia at their own free will. Secondly, their sympathy towards the USA and the West will grow and it is with them that relations will be developed.
If the verb "increase" applies to Russia's comprehensive "economic aid" to the Central Asian nations, where is an appropriate item in the Russian Federation's budget for 2002?
No-one is refusing to cooperate with Russia if this is what it really wants. What currently exists in relations between Russia and the Central Asian countries cannot be called partnership relations. That is why the statement by Russian State Duma speaker Seleznev may cause differing comments. However, one wants to hope that relations between Russia and the Central Asian countries will embark on a qualitatively new level which will be for the good of these countries' peoples.
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