#9
Moskovsky Komsomolets
January 14, 2002
A LABORATORY OF RUMORS
Forecasts on year 2002 by Russian political observers
Author: not indicated
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

BLITZ INTERVIEWS WITH DUMA DEPUTIES AND POLITICAL SCIENTISTS.

FORECASTS FOR 2002 ARE OFFERED BY EVERYONE BEGINNING WITH ASTROLOGERS AND ENDING WITH POLITICAL SCIENTISTS. THE OVERALL PICTURE IS GLOOMY - PROBLEMS AND UPHEAVALS ARE IN STORE FOR RUSSIA. THE CORRIDORS OF POWER WILL ENGAGE IN A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT. THE US DOLLAR IS CREEPING UP, THE GDP IS FALLING...

Duma deputy Viktor Pokhmelkin: As I see it, 2002 will be a year of a growing longing for freedom on the part of the people, the year of liberalization of all aspects of life of the state and society. Concentration of power as a tendency will drop. This will take the form of aggravation of struggle in all spheres. In the economy, for example, it will take the form of struggle between bureaucracy (it will try to solidify its positions and put pressure on businesses) and free businesses (which will fight for freedom from state interference). Discord between the federal center and the regions will escalate along with social problems. A lot of Russians will grow convinced that despite all their expectations, the authorities cannot pay them decent wages or pensions. All of that will feed socialist moods on the one hand, and liberal on the other. Disappointment in Putin and in the government will be related to disappointment in the state as such.

Andrei Tsunsky, an expert with the Center of Political Technologies: 2001 was a clear indication that President Putin advocates a process of modernization of Russia. Unfortunately, the condition of the country as such and of the moment leave him with few instruments to wield. Moreover, he has to overcome resistance from the elite.

This is going to be the year of checking Putin's model of relations between society, businesses, and authorities for resilience. Relations via non-governmental structures, I mean. The question is whether or not these non-governmental structures are ready for stiff competition against the bureaucratic apparatus and traditional models of lobbying. The situation in the sphere of free speech and human rights will deteriorate. The security structures will try to build everything into a single vertical structure.

Amendments to the Constitution are what we should not expect soon. The same applies to redistribution of power.

Georgy Satarov, President of INDEM Foundation: I do not think there will be any cataclysmic changes in political life. Nothing fundamental will happen. The processes that are currently underway will proceed at their own rate.

Reshuffles have taken place in the government but they are insignificant. It would be of no use to expect something significant from the opposition. What opposition are we talking about? Opposition is an alternative to the regime that stands a chance of coming to power in the election. Berezovsky and his quasi-party are not an opposition. Neither shall we expect any economic or financial cataclysms...

(Translated by A. Ignatkin)