Johnson's Russia List #6005 4 January 2002 davidjohnson@erols.com A CDI Project www.cdi.org [Note from David Johnson: 1. The Independent (UK): Michael McCarthy, Thousands of Russian prisoners are still suffering in Gulag Archipelago. 2. AP: Russia Says Cutbacks in Military. 3. Luba Schwartzman: ORT Review. 4. Interfax: Russia's Putin voted man of the year in Moscow poll. 5. strana.ru: Conduct Code Shines a Light for Russian Business Boardrooms. Corporate governance new first on road to world probity. 6. David Rowell: RE: 6004 DuPey. 7. The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars: CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICS, ECONOMICS, RELIGION. SHOULD THE U.S. CARE? 8. The Guardian (UK): Michael Bourdeaux, Sir Dimitri Obolensky. Distinguished scholar of Byzantium whose infectious enthusiasm drew students to the fields of Russian and Balkan history. 9. Chicago Tribune/AP: Andrew Kramer, Old Believers keep Russian roots alive in Oregon village. 10. The Nation: Raffi Khatchadourian, Letter From Uzbekistan. 11. Moskovsky Komsomolets: CHAOS AT A PEAK. Experts comment on the current situation in Russia. 12. WPS Monitoring Agency: POLITICAL FORECASTS [press review]. THE "STILL WATER" YEAR IS REPLACED BY THE YEAR OF "DARK HORSE"] ******* #1 The Independent (UK) 4 January 2002 Thousands of Russian prisoners are still suffering in Gulag Archipelago By Michael McCarthy Russia's Gulag Archipelago of prison camps in the far north is still functioning, with prisoners enduring "unacceptable" conditions of winter cold and summer insect bites, the conference was told. More than 120 "forest colonies" of remote labour camps dating from the Stalin era of political persecution are being used to house tens of thousands of criminals, said Judith Pallot, a geography lecturer at Oxford University. Reporting on two valleys in the Perm region of the northern Ural mountains, the Kolva and the Berezovaya, Dr Pallot said they containedcompounds ringed by watchtowers on the edge of the forest, They had held prisoners since the Thirties, although the inmates were now typically murderers rather than political dissidents. The average temperature for the region over the whole year was minus 1C, and during the long winter, from October to May, it fell as low as minus 40C, while in the summer insect bites were "absolute hell", Dr Pallot said. The inmates had been regularly marched into the forest to cut timber before the recent collapse of the local timber market. There were believed to be about 10,000 prisoners in the two valleys. The common perception was that the Gulag Archipelago of camps, made famous by the writer Alexander Solzhenitsyn, had been swept away after Joseph Stalin's death, and certainly by the present day. There were tourist trips to the former camps on the Solovietski islands in the Arctic Ocean, Dr Pallot said, similar to those run to the Robben Island prison off the South African coast that once held Nelson Mandela. "But we were surprised to find that there are still whole regions of northern Russia where prisoners are serving out their sentences perhaps thousands of miles from where they committed their offences," she said. "These camps are entirely in the wrong place and it is not acceptable." There were known to be 122 remaining "forest colonies" of prisoners in remote areas, she said. Conditions in them were thought to be particularly bad because in the Russian prison system camps were expected to cover their own costs, but often could not do so. The Russian government was aware of the problem but was struggling to cope with a severely overcrowded prison system, Dr Pallot said. In January 2001 the prison population was 924,000, including 200,000 awaiting trial. With 729 prisoners per 100,000 citizens, Russia had one of the world's highest rates of incarceration. The problem was that people were given custodial sentences for relatively trivial offences, Dr Pallot said. "What they need is a good probation service and the idea of community service for minor theft." Dr Pallot also reported on a neighbouring valley in the Perm region, the Vishera, where a labour camp was abolished in 1990. Many of the former inhabitants, political detainees from the Soviet era or their descendants, had decided to remain in the area. They had reverted to a subsistence economy, growing potatoes, gathering berries and mushrooms and killing game in the forest. ****** #2 Russia Says Cutbacks in Military January 4, 2002 MOSCOW (AP) - Russia will reduce its military by more than 15 percent to one million troops this year, but the cuts will not affect the nation's combat-readiness, a senior officer said Friday. Col. Gen. Nikolai Kormiltsev, the supreme commander of Russian ground forces, told the Interfax news agency that Russia would still be able to defend ``potentially dangerous southwestern and Central Asian strategic lines.'' ``Despite some overall cuts in ground troops, the combat potential of the forces ... has increased through the buildup of constant combat-ready elements,'' he said, citing divisions that have seen action in the current Chechen war, now in its third year. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made military reform one of his main goals, over opposition from many senior officers who want to keep up a Soviet-style, large armed force despite Moscow's lack of cash to support it. Putin's plans include trimming Russia's 1.2 million military personnel by nearly one-third over the next three years, modernizing arsenals, gradually abolishing the draft and turn the military into a fully professional force. Russia's military has been in decline since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, with its 4 million-strong armed forces. ******* #3 ORT Review www.ortv.ru Compiled by Luba Schwartzman (luba7@bu.edu) Research fellow at the Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology and Policy at Boston University HEADLINES, Thursday, January 3, 2002 - A new season of broadcasts has begun on Chechen television. - This year's first Cabinet change was the dismissal of Transportation Minister Nikolai Aksenenko. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Nikolaev made the suggestion at his meeting with President Vladimir Putin, who agreed and signed a corresponding decree. According to the department of government information, Nikolai Aksenenko finds himself morally responsible for the problems in the work of the transportation ministry and thinks that working conditions at the ministry will be better without him. - In the Leningrad Oblast's city of Volkhovo, 128 apartment buildings (housing about 11,000 people) have been left without heat due to an accident along the heating line. 150 people and 50 pieces of machinery have been involved in repair work, but it is expected to take 5-7 days. - An international thief, Gennady Vostretsov (A.K.A. Gennady Arzhanik, A.K.A. Henry Oknyansky), who stole almost $3 million from Cuban entrepreneurs, was detained in Moscow. - In the Tsotsin-Yurt settlement of the Kurchalovsk region, the military is continuing a special operation to destroy a large division of Chechen fighters. They have already liquidated a group of fighters and its leader, Abdull Said Magomed, and removed a large amount of arms and ammunition. - The first tax declarations are arriving from Russian citizens. Tax officials hope that this year, with the changes to the tax code, more declarations will be received. - In the Crimea, forests lost more trees to poachers in the two weeks preceding the New Year celebrations than to forest fires during the entire summer. Lebanese Cedar and Cypress trees are sold to rich Ukrainians and Russians for hundreds of dollars. - Protests against the court decision sentencing journalist Grigory Pasko to 4 years imprisonment for espionage have begun in Vladivostok. - Secret documents have been discovered onboard the Kursk nuclear submarine. None of the information is relevant to the sinking of the submarine. - Starting this year, Russian classes will be compulsory in Moldavian schools. It is possible that, in the future, Moldavia will follow in the footsteps of Kirghizia by adding Russian as a state language. Forty percent of the population consider Russian their native language, while only 5 percent assert that it was forced upon them. - As of today, Russian banks will begin selling the Euro. ****** #4 Russia's Putin voted man of the year in Moscow poll Interfax Moscow, 4 January: In a recent opinion poll held by the Gallup-Media company at the request of Itogi magazine, working Muscovites aged 25 to 55 have named President Vladimir Putin "Man of the Year 2001". Putin ranks first in all categories, winning top marks as the strongest influence on developments in Russia, the most successful official in his post, the person with the most appealing conduct, manners, clothes and looks, and the person who pleasantly surprised people this year. Putin and Moscow mayor Yuriy Luzhkov, who ranks third on the list, were people all of those questioned knew. Emergencies Minister Sergey Shoygu ranks second, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov fourth, TV talk show host Vladimir Pozner fifth, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov sixth, Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov seventh, TV host Leonid Parfenov eighth, Moscow Patriarch Aleksiy II ninth and Moscow Region governor Boris Gromov tenth. There are a total of 73 people on the list. ******** #5 strana.ru January 4, 2002 Conduct Code Shines a Light for Russian Business Boardrooms Corporate governance new first on road to world probity By Michael Stedman New light may begin to shine this year through the opacity that has been Russia's business world. But for sure, there's an uncertain ride ahead for a new initiative that seeks to be more than mere wishful thinking. Despite good intentions, the future of Russia's first-ever try at exposing business practice to the glare of transparent corporate governance is largely in the hands of captains of industry for whom the principles of open books, frank disclosure and protection of investor and shareholder rights have been anathema. Russia has succeeded, though, in putting together a ground-breaking initiative. This seeks to inject into the nation's boardrooms a sense of the disciplines that govern what are effectively the morals that guide business practice throughout much of the world. The credentials of those behind the move are as bluechip as the authors would like Russian business to become. The code won government blessing in late November after a drafting and consultation process organized by the Russian Federal Commission for the Securities Market (FCSM) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Their drive for support and credibility fixed sights on much of Russia's business community - but their horizons were far wider. The skepticism of investors, lawyers, business people and journalists was confronted by FCSM chairman Igor Kostikov at presentations in London and at road-shows in Washington, Boston and New York during consultations designed to give interested parties outside Russia a chance to voice their views on the contents of this landmark document. "It is our primary task to support both public and private initiatives aimed at improving the laws and institutions which support a modern market economy," noted top EBRD specialist Emmanuel Maurice as he unveiled what developed into the bank's largest legal reform project and one backed by 600,000 Euros (nearly $535,000) of Japanese government development money. Encouraged by the moves of several Russian companies which have introduced changes in their own corporate governance practices, the FCSM went into gear to mop up damage to, and lack of investor confidence in, Russia's investment climate through examples of corporate practice which have defied international norms. The code was presented in draft form to State Duma deputies, the business world and the media in September, followed by consultations with around 2,000 Russian and foreign companies, banks, investment firms, stock exchange representatives and federal institutions. Support was significant, according to a commission spokesman. Nearly half of those consulted backed the idea of a code and nearly 30 percent wanted it enshrined in law - a consideration noted by EBRD specialist Maurice when he said, "effective implementation of any legal change…is the crucial test for any legal reform." And here is the rub, the crucial qualification. The code has no statutory force and the extent of compliance has yet to be tested. Government sees its arrival as an important milestone, however. Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said compliance with the code's provisions "should improve the transparency of Russian companies and increase the flow of investment," referring to its safeguards for those with financial interests in an enterprise's operations. Ministers' support "was a decisive factor for building the system of corporate relations in Russia," reflected FCSM Chairman Kostikov after the cabinet gave the code its blessing and urged that its principles should be followed. As Kostinov and his associates contemplated how the code will be received in the coming months, he looked back in an exclusive interview with The Russian Observer on the road traveled so far, and the still rocky route his code might have to take. "An immense number of companies joined discussion on the code - more than 2,000 opinions of support came from international investment institutions, Russian emitters and professional players on the securities market such as the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the EBRD, Gazprom, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs and Siberian Aluminum company," Kostikov said. The process was a key pointer to Russian corporate attitudes to higher standards of governance, the chairman believed, noting that "the bigger the company, the greater importance it attaches to developing corporate management and introducing corporate standards." The more transparent a company was, the greater investment it might expect, he said. Key elements of the code were recommendations for electing an enterprise's corporate secretary, recommendations for electing a defined number of not less than three independent directors to the company's board, proposals for setting up an inspection service in each company, and rules for approving a company's financial plans, Kostikov said. Government had given what the chairman called "very positive support," and ministers had pledged monitoring of how the code was being applied. "Observance of the code's provisions through representatives of the state on the boards of directors of companies will be introduced," he said. Despite the absence of statutory backing, "objective economic laws and principles" were incentives for companies to follow the code's provisions, Kostikov said, noting that the Russian companies Yukos and RAO Unified Energy Systems were among enterprises that had already introduced corporate governance codes of their own. In a November opinion poll conducted among the directors of more than 100 Russian companies, 47 per cent had replied "yes" to the question of whether a corporate conduct code was needed by a company, though only as a recommendation, Kostikov said. Just under 30 per cent said it was needed "as a law" and 20 per cent said it was necessary as a "normative act or a regulating body." Consultations during European and U.S. presentations of the draft code had been positive, the chairman believed, and a number of recommendations, mainly of a technical character, had been suggested. But the most positive response "was evoked by the very emergence of the code, the first in Russia," Kostikov said. Its main provisions were "based on the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development principles of corporate management, long used in the West." ******** #6 From: "David M Rowell" Subject: RE: 6004 DuPey Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 Lois DuPey makes some very sensible comments in JRL 6004 when she cautions us against blindly projecting what we want to see onto the face of Russia and its actions - a sin that the previous US administration was famous for committing. She also sensibly observes that Russia's western movements in no way preclude or prevent it from continuing to develop closer ties with nations less friendly to the west and its objectives. Russia, with its bi-polar nature and geographic spread is perhaps best served of all the countries in the world to align with both east and west. But she then goes on to assert "The risk of destabilization of the current Russian regime due to the malfunctioning economy is at a historical high point." Considering the levels of risk and actual destabilizing acts in Russia over the last ten and one hundred years, this is a very aggressive statement to make. One should consider also Mr Putin's continued extraordinarily high popularity ratings and generally competent and consistent demeanor, the slow but steady resurgence of law and order, the gradual evolution of Russia's businesses and industry away from lawless plundering towards lawful and sensible sustainable development, the wonderful economic growth over the last two years, and the new levels of investment that are flooding into Russia (most notably in the oil industry). Considering all these and many more 'positives' that redound when one looks at Russia and the Putin administration, how can Ms DuPey claim that there is any measurable risk of destabilization at all, let alone that it is present at a historic high level? ******* #7 Date: Thu, 03 Jan 2002 From: "JOSEPH DRESEN" Subject: Event announcement "CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICS, ECONOMICS, RELIGION. SHOULD THE U.S. CARE?" The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars is pleased to invite you to a workshop on Central Asia, to be held in the Wilson Center's 5th floor conference room on Thursday, January 10, 2002. The workshop will enlist the talents and expertise of some of the leading scholars of Central Asia, and will conclude with remarks by one of the most senior Bush administration officials responsible for following events in Central Asia. Session I: Regional Dynamics 1:30 - 3:15 p.m. Kamoludin Abdullaev, Tajik State University, Dushanbe, and visiting professor, Yale University Nayereh Tohidi, California State University, Northridge, and research scholar, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center Nancy Lubin, President, JNA Associates, Inc. Session II: U.S. Interests in Central Asia 3:30 - 4:45 p.m. Hon. B. Lynn Pascoe, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State This workshop is jointly organized by the Woodrow Wilson Center's Asia Program, Conflict Prevention Project, Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, and Middle East Project. Due to limited space in the meeting room, an RSVP is required to attend the event. We hope to see you on the 10th for what should be an outstanding program on a little understood but increasingly important region of the world. Name: ___________________________ Affiliation: ___________________________ Telephone Number: ___________________________ Please let us know whether you are able to join us on the 10th by faxing this form to (202) 691-4184. Please note that due to new security regulations, the outside doors nearest the Wilson Center lobby are not open. For directions, please consult the map on the Center's web site at www.wilsoncenter.org. A photo ID is required for entry. ******* #8 The Guardian (UK) 4 January 2002 Sir Dimitri Obolensky Distinguished scholar of Byzantium whose infectious enthusiasm drew students to the fields of Russian and Balkan history By Michael Bourdeaux Sir Dimitri Obolensky, former professor of Russian and Balkan history at Oxford University, who has died aged 83 of myeloma, had, whether in English, French or Russian, the most beautiful speaking voice - deep, resonant, with a slightly studied perfection, as if he required some reflection before delivering a sentence with every inflection in place. The Russians loved it; his speech recreated a bygone era, the expression of which they thought had been lost for ever. He adored curious words from the old times: a "reject" could be a shanterapa. How? Serfs used to be lined up to see who had a voice good enough to sing in the church choir. In the aristocratic French of the time, the master would say to a failure, "Il ne chantera pas!" Obolensky's contribution to scholarship was in the field of Byzantine studies. For 36 years, from 1949, he was reader in, and then professor of, Russian and Balkan history at Oxford, as well as being a student of Christ Church. Those who heard his lectures on the conversion of the medieval Kievan city-state of Rus to Christianity in AD988, and the subsequent effect of this on Russian medieval culture, will never forget the experience. They were, in their studied, orotund magnificence - and delivered without a note - perhaps greater than any single article or book Obolensky ever published, though his masterpiece, The Byzantine Commonwealth (1971), was a recreation of them. That one needed some knowledge of medieval Russian to appreciate them fully was a disincentive preventing a wide following, but, in an age of great lecturers at Oxford, no one eclipsed Obolensky. Most privileged were his personal students. With his exquisite politeness and tolerance of views differing from his own, he never uttered a harsh word. His pen would be busy while an essay was read, then there would follow a discourse, picking out strengths and weaknesses and delivered as though it were a composed lecture. Though Obolensky was a man totally without side, he took pleasure in tracing his ancestry back to Rurik, the legendary, 9th-century Viking founder of Kiev (his entry in People Of Today actually claims this). His relation to Russia, however, was to be totally different from that of his patrician ancestors. He was a child of the revolution, born in Petrograd (as St Petersburg was then called) a year after the abdication of the last tsar. His parents removed him from danger to the haven of the Alupka palace in the Crimea (later to be Churchill's residence during the 1944 Yalta conference), but a year later they fled to Paris on a British warship. Following a complicated series of events, and his mother's second marriage (to Count André Tolstoy), Obolensky left Paris, where he might have been just another taxi-driver Russian prince, and entered Lynchmere preparatory school, Eastbourne, at the age of 11. It was probably here that he acquired his legendary admiration for racing drivers, whom he would one day try to emulate on the autobahns of Germany. He never mentioned this passion in his autobiography, Bread Of Exile (1999). Nor does he write about lawn tennis, at which he was to win a university blue. After attending a French lycée, he returned to England to take up a place at Trinity College, Cambridge. Though willing, as a stateless person he was prevented from fighting in the war, so was able to develop his interest in Russian history under the redoubtable Professor Elizabeth Hill, who left him largely to his own devices, while pointing him to a study of the Bogomils, medieval Balkan heretics. This launched Obolensky's career: fellow of Trinity (1942-48), then the rest of his days in Oxford, though with many interludes at such places as Dumbarton Oaks, in Washington, and Wellesley College, Massachusetts. While not a prolific writer, he was best known to the wider public for his Penguin Book Of Russian Verse (1962). This included an extract from his beloved Lay of Prince Igor, the cause of one of the few controversies of his life. He believed passionately in the authenticity of this medieval work, the manuscript of which had allegedly perished in a fire, and which Borodin had used as the basis for his opera. Others thought this a forgery, and it caused Obolensky grief that people whom he respected should reject it. However, he remained receptive to new ideas even in his 70s, not least from eastern European scholars whom he had been prevented from knowing earlier by communist authoritarianism. A volume collecting various scattered works would be a treasure-trove: his obituary in the Times of Anna Akhmatova, whose visit to Oxford in the early 1960s to receive an honorary degree he helped organise; an Oxford University sermon on the Russian church today (delivered in the early 1990s), and much else. There were many honours - fellowship of the British Academy in 1974, a knighthood in 1984. But his most valued one was, on his return to Russia in 1988, as an official delegate to the sobor (council) of the Russian Orthodox church, now liberated from its chains and, as he said, "listening to laughter" for the first time since 1917. He became an active vice-president of Keston Institute, a centre for the study of the church in communist countries, and retained an active interest in Greece, Russia and Byzantium to the end. He married Elisabeth Lopukhin in 1947, but the marriage was dissolved in 1989. · Dimitri Dimitrievich Obolensky, Russian and Balkan scholar, born April 1 1918; died December 23 2001 ******** #9 Chicago Tribune January 4, 2002 Old Believers keep Russian roots alive in Oregon village By Andrew Kramer Associated Press WOODBURN, Ore. -- An old woman wearing peasant clothes and a kerchief stands in front of a Russian church topped by gilded cupolas. The scene could be out of a distant century if it weren't for a Ford pickup parked nearby and a TV antenna sprouting from a house. This is "the village," a row of houses and churches in the heart of Oregon's community of Russian Old Believers, descendants of dissident Christians who split from the Russian Orthodox Church in the 17th Century, then fled to the United States to escape persecution. Struggling to preserve traditions dating to medieval times, they cling to strict rules: No meat on Wednesdays or Fridays. Peasant-style clothing must be worn with a belt. Followers cannot eat off the same dishes as non-believers, so some Old Believers eat out only at fast-food restaurants where meals come in disposable containers. "It's never been easy to be an Old Believer," said Brother Ambrose Moorman, an Old Believer monk and curator of a Russian museum at the Mount Angel Abbey. On Monday, the faith will celebrate Christmas according to the Russian Orthodox religious calendar, which runs two weeks behind the Gregorian calendar used in the West. Though most Americans decorate for Christmas, Old Believers do the opposite: All ornaments, such as religious icons, are taken down and the house is cleaned and made as bare as possible before the holiday. Old Believers must fast for periods of time and abstain from alcohol leading up to Christmas. They celebrate the holiday with an all-night mass ending with a festive breakfast and a return of the decorations. "We would go to church on Christmas Eve and Mom would stay home and put up the decorations," recalled Ulita Seleznev, a 1st-grade teacher at Heritage Elementary School in Woodburn. The Old Believers split from the Russian Orthodox Church when the institution enacted reforms to reconcile differences between Russian religious texts and Greek originals. The Old Believers chose instead to adhere to traditional rituals. Many Old Believers fled the country over the years. Those who remained stayed on the fringes of Russian society, typically living in remote villages in the far north or in Siberia. About 3 million people are of Old Believer descent in Russia today. The 10,000 Old Believers in Oregon are the largest concentration of members of their faith in the United States. Some were directed to the state by charities that helped Christians migrate from communist countries during the Cold War. Yavhori Cam, the founder of the Old Believers' village, carved the subdivision from verdant farmland about 30 miles south of Portland in the 1960s. On a recent Sunday service inside Pokrov Church, men in dark robes chanted as women crossed themselves and genuflected before icons illuminated by candles. After the service, girls and boys scampered onto Bethlehem Road in the village in pink and red embroidered clothes, with kerchiefs and leather boots and belts, giving the quaint impression of an Old World peasant festival. Old Believers get their fashion sense at baptism. Eight-day-old infants are dressed in an embroidered shirt, or rubashka, a homemade belt called a poyas, and a cross. They are expected to wear the same style for the rest of their lives. For girls, a flowing dress, or platya, extending to the ankles must be worn tied with the belt. Maintaining such traditions continues to be a challenge. Old Believers have to observe 40 annual religious holidays, and the religion's strict rules make employment with businesses in the larger community all but impossible. About half are farmers--one of the few occupations that mesh with their lifestyle. Many Old Believers don't believe in education past 8th grade and send their children to work on farms or at construction jobs with friends and relatives. Still, Seleznev said she sees more and more Old Believers making compromises. All drive cars and most these days watch television. "Ten or 15 years ago, people were more worried about the outside. Now you hear less about the outside" because Old Believers are becoming more a part of it, she said. "We're still closely knit, but not reclusive as before," Seleznev said. "The kids are more American growing up than when I grew up." ******** #10 The Nation January 21, 2002 Letter From Uzbekistan by RAFFI KHATCHADOURIAN Raffi Khatchadourian is a freelance journalist based in Tashkent. Namangan The main overland route into Central Asia's Fergana Valley is the two-lane A373 highway in Uzbekistan. At first, the road is level. But to enter the expansive dale it must climb over 7,000 feet, wending through snowcapped mountains cut from the Alay and Tian Shan ranges. On the other side of the pass, the horizon rapidly opens up, giving way to the valley's flat and rocky landscape. Leaving the mountains, the highway shoots toward a strip of haze that perpetually clouds distant village skylines. If nature has given the people who live here an awe-inspiring gateway, it has given the governments who rule over them a powerful instrument of control. These mountains effectively wall in Central Asia's most turbulent and crowded area, funneling all traffic into easily regulated chokepoints. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan share the valley, home to nearly 11 million people. But Uzbekistan's harsh authoritarian leadership has been particularly aggressive in its use of this topographical convenience, turning the Uzbek portion of the region, the largest section, into what amounts to a massive minimum-security prison. Numerous police roadblocks are stationed all along the A373. Highways cutting across the valley are heavily patrolled, too. At each checkpoint, Uzbek policemen armed with Kalashnikov rifles wave down cars based on license-plate numbers that identify their place of registration. Documents are checked and the trunk is opened; if anything is deemed suspicious, either the driver is apprehended or the license number is logged into a computer so the vehicle's movements can be subsequently monitored more carefully. Although the roadblocks are meant to stem the flow of Islamic extremists and narcotics, they have evolved into an effective instrument of extortion and bribery, and a source of everyday aggravation. Moreover, the checkpoints are only one part of a broader government campaign. For the past three years, Uzbek authorities have administered a harsh crackdown on virtually all forms of independent religious and political expression. President Islam Karimov's administration--now in its eleventh year--has closed hundreds of mosques and imprisoned thousands of people (the number has been estimated at anywhere from 7,000 to 10,000), often for reasons as simple as praying in the wrong place. Many Uzbeks complain that local police and judges are given arrest quotas. Most trials are carried out with lightning quickness; those on the stand are pressured to confess, so evidence is rarely required. Long prison sentences for minor charges are common. The official justification for this strategy has been to crush the region's violent Islamic insurgencies, along with the drug trade that supports them. But the mass arrests, combined with the government's iron control of the media and economy (the Uzbek currency is virtually nonconvertible, and private land ownership is essentially not permitted), are creating an increasingly desperate population cut off from the rest of the world. Quietly but quickly, Uzbeks are turning to radical Islamic groups, finding legitimacy in the enemies of an illegitimate regime. In essence, the crackdown is fueling the very problem it is designed to correct: Central Asia's Fergana Valley may very well be the crucible for the world's next Taliban. Take Namangan, once a traditional political center, now a scruffy post-Soviet city of roughly 340,000. Many of those in Namangan who have work toil in Uzbekistan's state-run cotton collectives. But poverty and unemployment are rampant. Even within the devout Fergana Valley, Namangan is regarded as a place of intense social conservatism and piety. Not surprisingly, it is the birthplace of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), an insurgency that has wreaked havoc across Central Asia since its founding in the late 1990s. Today the IMU is banned in several countries. It supports the violent overthrow of secular Central Asian governments, especially in Uzbekistan, and wants to bring Islamic Sharia law to the region. Uzbek authorities blame the movement for setting off five car bombs in 1999 in Tashkent, in a plot to assassinate President Karimov. The IMU also participated in the 1992-97 civil war in Tajikistan, which pitted Islamic rebels against the former Communist regime, and it engaged in kidnappings and cross-border skirmishing in Kyrgyzstan. Washington regards the movement as a terrorist group with international reach and links to the Al Qaeda network. In October President Bush included the IMU on a list of terrorist organizations whose assets were ordered frozen. IMU co-founder Jumaboi Khojiev, a near-mythic Uzbek warlord who goes by the nom de guerre Juma Namangani, was reported killed alongside Taliban militiamen during the fight for Mazar-i-Sharif, in northern Afghanistan. But even if he is dead--and it is not clear that he is--and Afghanistan is wiped clean of terrorist groups, the situation here is unlikely to change. The Fergana Valley's radical Islamic fervor has become inseparably interwoven with growing popular discontent. "Frustrations here run very high," said Rustam Azizov, a dissident radio journalist and former opposition leader who lives in Namangan. Azizov, who asked to use a false identity, has traversed the Fergana Valley during both careers to gauge public opinion. Now he works out of his small apartment, mostly from a mat and some pillows set up before a low table strewn with audio equipment and papers covered in his tight longhand. Beside him, he keeps an old Panasonic shortwave radio and cassette player. "Here's a good example," he said, reaching into a bag of microphones and wires and pulling out a Sony MiniDisc player, which he connected to the Panasonic. Through the radio's single, partially blown speaker came a recording of a local woman in her late 40s, her voice utterly woebegone. The woman explained that the authorities had arrested half her family unjustly. Azizov asked whether she would join an Islamic terrorist group if members came to her door offering a gun. "Yes," she said, without hesitation. "I just can't imagine living my life anymore under this regime." In Uzbekistan, talk like this can carry a heavy price, and isn't indulged in lightly. But it is being heard with increasing frequency. "I can't tell you how many frustrated people have told me: 'Just give me the word, and we will fight to get rid of this guy Karimov,'" said Azizulla Ghazi, a political analyst who works from the city of Osh, located on the Kyrgyz side of the Fergana Valley. "They're not necessarily terrorists but are willing to join up with anyone ready to do that." Currently, alongside the IMU in the Fergana Valley are a host of smaller militant Islamic groups, such as Justice Society, Long Beard, Repentance, Mission and Ray of Light, that could potentially take the IMU's place were it to be irrevocably damaged by the death of its leader. There is also expanding popular support for Hizb-ut-Tahrir, or Party of Liberation, an international radical Islamic movement calling for the peaceful replacement of the region's secular governments with a multinational Islamic caliphate. Hizb-ut-Tahrir's leaders have estimated that their organization includes at least 80,000 members in Uzbekistan alone, but because it is also banned, actual figures are difficult to verify. In Osh, a two-hour car drive east of Namangan, Nosir, 37, a Hizb-ut-Tahrir cell leader who withheld his last name, explained that destroying the IMU would have little long-term effect in Central Asia. "If you look at history, no vacuum can stay empty forever," he said, tightening his calloused fingers into a fist for emphasis. "There will always be a group ready to fight for its beliefs. Our organization will never call for violence, but as long as problems remain, there will always be people ready to take up arms." Ironically, the short-term goals of the US-led war on terrorism have pushed Washington into aggravating the problems in Central Asia. Prior to September 11, the United States was Uzbekistan's greatest critic and applied a substantial degree of diplomatic pressure on the Karimov regime to clean up its human rights record. But Uzbekistan, with its strategic proximity to Afghanistan and its reasonably maintained Soviet-era military infrastructure, has proved to be a critical component in the effort to rid Afghanistan of Al Qaeda and its sympathizers. President Karimov has permitted the Pentagon to station more than 1,000 soldiers at an airbase near the town of Qarshi, not far from the Afghan frontier, and has allowed UN humanitarian workers to shuttle vital aid across the Uzbek border into northern Afghanistan. Since September 11, American aid has started flowing into Uzbekistan, and US criticism has notably softened. On December 6, just before Colin Powell arrived in Tashkent, the Uzbek Parliament rubber-stamped a proposal to extend Karimov's presidency. Powell didn't peep. "The US military presence in Central Asia is undoubtedly going to be an irritant if it lasts very long--adding more fuel to the fires of those who are anti-Western and militant," says John Schoeberlein, director of the Harvard Forum for Central Asian Studies. "What is important is that the United States avoid the situation it's gotten itself into so many times in the past, where it is seen as being teamed up with nasty governments. Because what it means is that US citizens get tarred with the same brush as those governments, and Central Asia could be engaged in the same anti-Western process that we have all over the Middle East and in other parts of the world." Just how detrimental the Karimov crackdown is to long-term US interests was illustrated at a recent trial of ten young men convicted for their connection to Hizb-ut-Tahrir. In a shabby courthouse on the outskirts of Tashkent, the men sat behind the thick bars of a large courtroom cage as a judge sentenced them to prison terms of up to seventeen years. Eight soldiers holding batons kept a watchful guard, and when the judge finished, they quickly pushed distraught relatives out of the room. But for an instant, there was a spark of defiance--one that human rights observers say is becoming increasingly popular at such trials--as some in the crowd raised their fists. Praising God, they softly chanted, "Death to the president! Allah-u-Akbar!" ******** #11 Moskovsky Komsomolets January 4, 2002 CHAOS AT A PEAK Experts comment on the current situation in Russia Author: Marina Ozerova, Alexei Borisov, Lyuba Shariy [from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html] WE HAVE ASKED EXPERTS IN CERTAIN FIELDS TO ASSESS THE SITUATION IN RUSSIA, ITS ECONOMY AND OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES. ECONOMIC REFORMS, FOREIGN DEBT, OIL PRICES: WHILE RUSSIA WAS ON THE RISE IN 1999, NOW THE SITUATION IS DIFFERENT, AND THE CONSEQUENCES IN 2002 COULD BE SERIOUS. If we were to compare the economic situation in Russia now and in 1999 - has it changed? And can we say that the government has an overall plan for reforming the economy? We asked two experts - an official and an unofficial one - to answer these questions. Alexander Pochinok, Labor and Social Security Minister: the economic situation in Russia has improved: there is no budget deficit, pensions have risen, minimum wages has increased up to 450 rubles. The social situation has calmed down - the number of strikes has reduced 17 times. And what can be a better sign of economic development than the unemployment rate? In 1999 it was almost 10 million people, and today it is less than 5 million. Obviously, next year the tendency toward economic growth in Russia will only strengthen. As for the global economic reform - it consists of several parts. For example, now we are driving a taxation reform, a budget and a pension reforms. Businessmen have to get less permissive signatures than before. Natural monopolies will undergo changes too. However, this year nobody will be able to see the final results of the reforms: a lot more time is needed for that. Nevertheless, I hope that in a year's time, living standards in Russia will be close to those in Hungary - one of the most stable and highest in Eastern Europe. Mikhail Delyagin, director of the Globalization Institute: In 1999 Russia was on the rise. The ruble had been devalued almost four- fold, and Russian industry livened up; oil prices rose considerably. But the state did not take advantage of these factors, and opportunities of spontaneous development of economy have exhausted themselves. If in 1999 Russia was "going to market", now it is coming back from it, carrying its spent economic growth... The government, having tried to work out comprehensive economic reform, abandoned the idea at last. And its tried to support interests of big business and monopolies. But their interests do not coincide with interests of the society! What will the result be? A system economic crisis, turning into a political one. At best, we will manage to overcome it, at worst - we will face chaos. When? Spontaneous devaluation of the ruble is expected in 2003-04. However, it is not likely that the state will be able to do something about it. And we needed the state social-economic program and a program for developing producing forces of the country yesterday! Roosevelt did it, and the United States not only managed to survive after the Great Depression, but became a hyper-state... What is being done to reduce the dependence of our economy on oil prices? And what should be done? Sergei Ivanenko, deputy head of the Yabloko faction in the Duma: Russian economy heavily depends on world oil prices and other products of slaughtering - aluminum, for example. This dependence was formed in Soviet times, and still remains. There is only one way out of this: we should earn money selling our resources, but we should not spend it straight away, we should invest it in developing the industry. First of all, those branches, which are connected with oil production and oil transportation, for example, production of drilling rigs, pipes, transport infrastructure. Increase in population income will elad to increase in demand for consumer goods - and a good stimulus for developing other industries will come into being. At that, investments can be done only by private business, and we should not hope on the state to do so. The state should secure such conditions, which would make it profitable for raw materials producers to invest money in Russia. Why is all capital leaving Russia now? Because the legislature is unacceptable, the power of bureaucrats is total... Unfortunately, we are losing time again. Oil prices have been on quite a high level for more than a year. For more than a year our raw materials companies were getting huge incomes, but they did not want to invest anything in some big projects. And the matter does not concern personal qualities of their directors, but the conditions in the country. It means that the conditions are not very good yet. And what if the situation in world markets gets worse? I would not like us to treat "oil" money the way they treated it in the USSR. The Soviet Union spent the money mostly on achieving military supremacy, arms race. It would be a pity if now the state spent the money on something stupid, instead of creating normal conditions for business and investments. "GREEN" AGAINST MULTI-COLORED Will the euro replace the dollar for Russians? Alexander Zhukov, chairman of the Duma Committee on budget and taxation: I believe that the euro will not replace the dollar as a means of money saving. Only people going abroad, to Europe will buy this currency. In the long-term perspective if the European currency grows better than the dollar, if its rate of exchange toward the dollar consolidates - maybe, there will be more savings in the euro. The introduction of the new currency will not influence Russian economy. It is important for the economy what rate of exchange the euro will have toward the dollar overall. A big part of our foreign debt is expressed in European currencies, and now it will be repaid in the euro. And sums of repayment will depend on the euro rate of exchange. How much should we repay the West? Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has recently summed up the "debt" totals. It turned out that the state debt of Russia will be reduced to 55-60% of the GDP. For comparison: under Yeltsin in 1992-99 our debt amounted to 140% of the GDP. This year, we will have to pay our creditors $13.75 billion, including $1.448 billion to the International Monetary Fund. After these payments Russia will owe to the IMF another $7.69 billion. Now Russia is among the countries with "manageable volume of debt", and the debt situation in Russia corresponds to the standards of the European community. MISSILE FAIR Which branches of Russian industry, apart from raw materials, are competitive in world markets? Andrei Kokoshin, deputy chairman of the Duma Committee on industry, building and high technologies, the Fatherland All Russia faction: Among the most perspective are such branches as information science: building Russian super-computers for modeling complicated physical processes, neuro-computers and so on. Civil aviation - the project of an AN-70 plane may interest foreign customers. Another competitive product is missile technologies, carrier rockets for launching satellites, and, of course, space systems - connection, navigation, emergencies... Nuclear energy and nuclear safety, means of ultrahigh frequency, laser and biotechnologies... We have achieved specific domestic success in all these industries, there are constructors' schools of world level. What we really need is realization of big national programs in these spheres. But in contrast to former, purely state programs, private enterprises should also participate, and we should define where to invest money, reckoning with political factors, which have always played a special role for high technologies. What consequences for our economy could there be from a real union between Russia and Belarus? Georgy Boos, deputy speaker of the Duma, the Fatherland All Russia faction: Everything depends on the principles of the union. If a common Central Bank is established, a common currency is introduced, common customs regulations and common requirements for the budget then there will be no negative consequences for the Russian economy. There will be only positive ones: both Russian and Belarussian industries will get access to new markets, resume certain economic contacts, which existed in the Soviet era, and were lost. Of course, over the past decade many of such contacts have been destroyed, but it is not so bad: if there is profit, money will flow in, and if one businessman does not understand where the profit is, the other will, and he will profit by it. Apart from all this, the spirits of our people will rise - both Russians and Belarussians. Improving the economy by 6% or even 15% will not be felt at once, while increase in morale will happen much sooner and is more effective. But while integration in economy is a slow process. Right now there is a customs border between Russia and Belarus. Of course, it creates barriers for trade and hinders integration... (Translated by Daria Brunova) ******* #12 WPS Monitoring Agency January 4, 2002 POLITICAL FORECASTS [press review] THE "STILL WATER" YEAR IS REPLACED BY THE YEAR OF "DARK HORSE" [www.wps.ru/e_index.html] Traditionally, the New Year holiday season in Russia is a rest period for both the public and the media. The gradual change from serious and deep analyses of social issues to first various predictions and later to vague anticipations and intricate prophecies is usual for all Russian media, even the best-quality ones. Astrologers replace political scientists everywhere - no periodical missed a chance to entertain its readers. In fact, the new Year of the Dark Horse is the perfect topic fir all kinds of impressive statements. Especially if we take into account that astrologers read political and economic news as attentively as political scientists. For instance, according to Master of Astrology Valery Ledovskikh, whose prophecy was published in the [Argumenty I Fakty] weekly, "The opposition of Saturn and Pluto will again be the burden. These two strong planets are considered to be the most 'vicious'. The process of global transformation of the world will continue." Moreover, 2002 is the year of Mars - consequently the war is inevitable: "The Afghanistan operation will move to other countries." As for economy, the prophecies are as ominous as the political ones: "The economy will become a hostage to the world war. There will be nothing stable, including the dollar." Further on the Master predicts oil price fluctuations and advises to be cautious with money deposits and long-term projects. The recommendations are obviously absolutely sensible. The only comforting prophecy is that the new year will be rather favorable for the Russian president: "The main thing is not to follow America and not to get involved into other's war. If Putin is not scared with independent actions, Russia will have minimum losses in the world crisis." The astrologer is a real patriot. Another astrologer, individualist Mikhail Levin, the rector of the Astrology Academy, purposely warned the [Vremya MN] paper, "I do not depend on the president, I only depend on the Uranus in the sky." According to Levin, "we are to have a difficult spring", as there are likely to be accidents, man-caused disasters and so on. He also predicts instability of the ruble and lack of money in the budget. Nonetheless, Mr. Levin promises that at the end of the year things will be alright, "Overall the year is good for Russia". It will be especially good for President Putin, "He will win the presidential elections as his popularity is growing and by 2004 it will be on its peak." However, astrologers refuse to say anything about the third presidential term. By the way, it is noticed that astrologers' prophecies are as trustworthy as the data of the ROMIR agency or of the All-Russia Center for Public Opinion Research (VTsIOM). On the threshold of the New Year VTsIOM made a popularity rating of the Russian elite by order from the [Kommersant] paper. According to the paper, the criterion is "love and respect of compatriots" no matter what the VIP-persons do. Vladimir Putin, Alla Pugacheva, and Gennady Zyuganov are at the top of the list. So singer Pugacheva left behind not only all political leaders, but spiritual preceptors as well: in particular, Patriarch Aleksy II is only 13th on the list. Overall, the people's love is an amazing thing: for instance, singer Iosif Kobzon left behind Boris Yeltsin, and tennis player Anna Kurnikova is ahead Vladimir Ustinov. On the other hand, are the VTsIOM data trustworthy enough? For instance, the [Izvestia] paper states that Ms. Condoleezza Rice - the US presidential aid - has practically left behind the queen of the Russian variety. As usually, Boris Berezovsky is not lucky. According to the same [Izvestia], the poor tycoon spent a good part of the year trying to attract the Kremlin's attention to himself, "He tried to fund an interior opposition, to establish a party, to support the civil society institutions". However, all was in vain. They say Boris Berezovsky even tried to personally meet with President Putin during the London visit of the latter. Judging by everything, the deeply insulted Berezovsky has finally decided to enter the warpath. For instance, aforementioned astrologer Valery Ledovskikh predicts that Berezovsky is again to lose, "Berezovsky is a real Aquarius, he is a real genius. But he is good in behind -the-curtain intrigues, and is helpless in an open fight. If he starts an open fight, he is doomed to lose." Actually, Berezovsky's prophecies on the per-term end of Putin's presidency the last fall have not come true yet. According to the [Nezavisimaya Gazeta] paper, "the stably high popularity rating of President Putin has been and will be a political puzzle for many analysts". The paper states that this phenomenon has already been called the "Putin phenomenon": "there are no obvious signs of prosperity in the country but the trust to the head of the state is growing with every day". Nonetheless, after [Nezavisimaya Gazeta] impassionedly analyzed this sad fact, it concluded that as strange as it is, but the US mourning day - September 11 - turned to be "favorable" for President Putin. "At the background of total perplexity of the world leaders in front of a new threat to the world civilization, the Russian leader showed his best side and immediately gathered political scores." As for the interior politics, according to some researches, the presidential popularity rating has grown due to the new pro-western course. It is also surprising, as Russia was traditionally considered to be a country oriented to the East. On the other hand, the paper speculates, Russians are so indifferent to the foreign politics that they are likely to support any course chosen by the authorities. Another side of the "Putin phenomenon" is that people trust him but not the power institutions that realize Putin's politics. For instance, the Duma trust rating in the country is only 9%, while the Federation Council collected only 8% of trust. Speaking about political parties, things are also amazing with them: the absolutely loyal to the president United Russia party has only a 30% trust rating, while the Union of Right Forces that mostly supports the presidential politics, gathered only 7% of voices; at the same time the Communist Party that loudly declares its opposition to the presidential course is still on the top of parties' trust rating. Overall, the [Nezavisimaya Gazeta] paper states, "the present power system has exhausted itself", it is unable to achieve its objectives. Consequently, the presidential trust index is likely to start falling soon, as "Hope for the best cannot last forever". The [Vremya Novostei] paper thinks that the popularity of the Communists is easy to explain. Paradoxically, but it is the Communist Party that turned to benefit by continuation of liberal reforms in the country. According to the paper, the "Communists can always offer the yearning for "golden Soviet times" that they actively cultivate, to all who dislike the present policy". [Vremya Novostei] stresses that the position of the right is much more difficult. The Union of Right Forces and the Yabloko movement warned that they would partially support the president as long as his policy coincides with their programs. At the same time the right stated that in case of discrepancies they would be toughly opposing the president. [Vremya Novostei] writes, "Apparently, they counted that they would have to do only one thing: either to oppose or to support". However, last year they had to do both: for instance, to support the military reform and to oppose concerning the Chechen problem; to support the court reform and to defend the NTV television network. At the same time, every time they had to explain their position to the voters. As the program of the authorities coincides with the program of the rights in many positions, the people traditionally prefer to support the authorities, not the right minority parties. According to the paper, all the rights can dream about is that the authorities became "more left", then they would be able to more definitively oppose them, while the "present alliance with the power can lead to a total loss of political self-identification". According to [Vremya Novostei] the 2001 was almost serene for Russia, the calmest year over the past decade, also due to a complete absence of parliamentary fights. The paper called it the "still water year". Will 2002 be the same serene? The [Moskovskie Novosti] weekly confirms that today's liberal essence of the Russian economic policy is undoubted, "In fact, Gaidar's economic program is being realized in a cut form, although the authorities prefer not to talk about it because of obvious reasons." On the other hand, in terms of human rights, establishment of the bureaucratic machine, and "putting the country in order", the liberals have grounded claims to the authorities. According to [Moskovskie Novosti] the rights need to figure out what is more important for them, "Not for the sake of politics, but for the electorate as well, as the latter is tortured with uncertainty." The weekly suggested estimation of the image of the Russian politicians by "liberalism- fundamentalism" scale. No wonder, President Vladimir Putin was again in the top ten, moreover, he left behind Grigory Yavlinsky. However, after this the experts were to compare the presidential liberal rating with ratings of presidential envoys in Russian federal districts. It turned out that almost all of them, beside Sergei Kirienko, turned to be on the opposite negative end of the scale. As [Moskovskie Novosti] writes, these data is a perfect illustration for the sociological phenomenon of the year: "The president is considered to be a progressive, almost liberal politician. However, the conductors of his political will in Russian provinces are rather conservative performers". According to the weekly, it is not only experts' opinion, the rest of the society thinks the same, "the president is Ok, but the surrounding leaves much to be desired." Moreover, the weekly does not doubt that if the scale for the poll is different, for instance patriot - cosmopolites, the president will again be on top, while many representatives of his power hierarchy will be on the shameful bottom of the list. It seems that the paradoxical popularity rating of President Putin and the unbearable hopes he is laid on is a "compensation attempt" for many. Thus the electorate proves its perplexity and inability to cope with the new Russian reality, as well as in its loss of the possibility to influence the authorities. The [Vek] weekly writes that according to sociological researches, the most serious losses in the Russian values system is the loss of responsibility to oneself and the society. As for "active participation in ruling the state", the things are even sadder here: this index has halved against the Soviet times. According to author of the article political psychologist, the Russians are able to long and correctly reflect on the mission of the state and the necessity of reforms. However, speaking of all this they mean that someone else is supposed to take care of everything - of raising the economy, state construction, social needs.... It is curious that over the past decade the number of those who considered richness at the background of total poverty a bad thing has fallen from 20.8% to 17.6%. however, the general belief that it is only the state that is to protect the old people, the invalids, and the sick people has remained: "the people do not even think of moving this burden from the state to their own shoulders". Besides, the author writes that even in mid-1990s 65.9% of respondents thought it was normal that actually a minority ruled in a democratic country. By 2000 this figure fell by 54.8%, but it is still very high, "We are used to being 'ruled' and not 'taken into consideration'." Thus, the paternalism and a belief in a strict but "good" master - or if we are lucky in a kind messiah- of the Russians that is so characteristic of our nation was reflected in Putin's popularity ratings. As [Izvestia] wrote in New Year's euphoria, "Putin is a leading star, loved by almost all and politically unique. He has soothed and equally distanced all, charmed and calmed. Even the West cannot help being happy." In fact, the president managed to carry out not only revolutionary breakthroughs in foreign politics and to open Russia to the West and the West to Russia, but to also lead the country to the "door in the civilized global world", the world of "the World Trade Organization, Investments, acting courts and economy, respected laws and citizens". All we have to do is to enter this door. To do this we will only have to change our country that our president "sincerely loves but that mostly demands something, wants to be 'special' and cannot forgive the mistakes of its idols." So despite all rosy predictions, the Kremlin team should not relax and should treat the creativity of astrologers, political scientists, and other oracles rather skeptically. By the way, in old totalitarian days astrologers usually came to a bad end. According to [Vremya MN] both Stalin and Hitler had their own astrologers; one of Stalin's astrologers even calculated the best time for beginning of the Stalingrad Battle. However, the fate of all of them was similar: Hitler sent all his astrologers to prison, Stalin fired all his. The most notorious astrological story is the one concerning Hitler's astrologer Kraft: as is known, his main prophecy was that Germany would lose the war in March 1945. He was immediately sent to prison with the verdict "To fire on March 31." As is known, he was only one month mistaken.... It is so good that all those horrible times are long over and in our unpredictable country in the Year of Dark Horse we have a reliable and loved president, who is also a former KGB officer. (Translated by Arina Yevtikhova) *******