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[Second Issue of the Day]
#5
ANALYSIS-Georgia crisis shows Shevardnadze, reformers
rift
By Margarita Antidze
TBILISI, Nov 2 (Reuters) - A decision by Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze to sack his entire government to defuse angry street protests has widened a growing rift with reformers and left him looking politically isolated.
Analysts said on Friday that more surprise moves could be expected from the veteran Shevardnadze, a wily manipulator and unrivalled master of the Georgian political scene, who on Thursday ruled out resigning himself.
They said he could force new parliamentary elections -- a move favouring the political fortunes of Georgia's reformers who appear to have turned the crisis in their favour.
"I think that these events will end with new parliamentary elections being called...As far as the possibility of the president's resignation is concerned, this is not likely to happen. Our society is absolutely not ready for this," independent political analyst Gia Nodia said.
Shevardnadze went on state television on Thursday to say the sackings were aimed at calming tempers, after two days of street protests triggered by a police raid on the independent Rustavi-2 television station, a regular critic of the president.
Though still in power, Shevardnadze has been politically damaged having been forced reluctantly to sacrifice conservative allies under pressure from reformers, analysts said.
Shevardnadze, 73, once wildly popular but now criticised by Georgia's free media for the disastrous performance of the economy and rampant corruption, at first threatened to quit if parliament punished the interior minister and prosecutor general for their role in the Rustavi-2 raids.
In past crises, Shevardnadze, sure of his role as the country's dominant figure, frequently used the threat of resignation to win the day.
BLUFF CALLED
This time, however, the ploy did not work. As street protests grew, he spoke emotionally of a "battle for power."
Finally, with protesters chanting anti-Shevardnadze slogans, the Georgian leader -- his bluff called -- sacked the whole government including Interior Minister Kakha Targamadze. Prosecutor General Gia Meparishvili also announced he had quit.
Shevardnadze's relations with reformers in the fractious former Soviet state have noticeably worsened over the past year as internal and economic problems have multiplied.
Years of economic hardship and the prevalent corruption have further tarnished the reputation of the former Soviet foreign minister, whose liberal policies in Mikhail Gorbachev's Kremlin won him plaudits in the West.
Failure to secure a breakthrough in the crisis around Abkhazia, a Black Sea region which broke from Georgia in a 1992-93 war, and the possible presence of Chechen rebels on Georgian territory, which have affected relations with Russia, have counted against him.
Two key reformers and erstwhile Shevardnadze loyalists, former parliamentary speaker Zurab Zhvania and the extremely popular ex-justice minister Mikhail Saakashvili, have both turned against their former patron, accusing him of failing to tackle widespread corruption.
RAID AIMED TO TAINT STATION?
Analysts say that Tuesday's raid on Rustavi-2 appeared to have been mounted by conservatives with the aim of discrediting the private television station -- a mouthpiece of reformers -- with the taint of financial irregularities and corruption.
According to this version, the plan backfired on the hardliners when reformers organised street rallies to protest at the abuse of media freedoms, embarrassing Shevardnadze.
Much now depends on Shevardnadze's next move and whether he will opt for fresh parliamentary elections. Analysts were undecided as to whether the unpredictable Georgian leader would seek to resurrect the fortunes of the conservatives or switch to allying himself with the reformers.
"If Shevardnadze presents to parliament the candidature of the same (outgoing) ministers, then the crisis will deepen," said one analyst, who did not wish to be named.
The Russian daily newspaper Kommersant, in a front-page article, focused on Shevardnadze's political isolation -- and the unusual lack of sympathy from Western governments.
"Not a single Western leader has come out to help him with traditional statements of support," said Kommersant.
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