#5512
[Second Issue of the Day]
#4
BBC Monitoring
Test cancellations signal greater US flexibility on ABM
says Russian paper
Source: Izvestiya, Moscow, in Russian 27 Oct 01
The USA's decision to postpone several National Missile Defence tests suggests that, in the run-up to the November summit between Putin and Bush, the Americans are in a mood for compromise over their plans to ditch the ABM treaty, although a future unilateral US withdrawal still cannot be ruled out, according to the Russian newspaper Izvestiya. The following is the text of the article by Valeriy Volkov, published on 27 October under the headline "We'll not be flying before November":
The USA has abandoned three tests within the framework of the building of an National Missile Defence system. As Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld said, the tests would be in violation of the 1972 ABM Treaty, and so it has been decided to postpone them. Observers have interpreted this as the Bush administration' s preparation for the Russia-US summit that will be held in three weeks' time in Texas.
The Pentagon said that the ABM Treaty was "inspected" by lawyers of President Bush's administration, who concluded that the tests, which were to have been conducted with the use of mobile radars, could be considered a violation of clauses of the treaty.
The postponed tests immediately evoked a negative response from fierce supporters of the abolition of the ABM Treaty. They altogether believe that an agreement that was concluded by the USA and the Soviet Union almost 30 years ago cannot be valid owing to the demise of a party to the treaty - the USSR. But the Bush administration has decided to bide its time at least until the meetings in Texas, something that clearly testifies to a change of the US position in respect of Russia.
As Russian experts told Izvestiya, from the formal standpoint, the radar with which it was contemplated tracking both the interceptor missile and the target could be classed as an "ABM system radar" (protocol of 1 November 1978). Since it is ship-based, the test would technically be in violation of the ABM Treaty. But technically, the experts are sure, avoiding violations of the treaty would be easy. They theorize that the tests have been postponed for some other reasons.
It is interesting that, as the American military itself has announced, the tests were to have been a precise copy of those that were conducted in July. But Washington lawyers did not consider them in contravention of the treaty at that time.
"The fact that Rumsfeld has remembered the tests means, it would seem, that the USA is in a mood for compromise," is how Russian experts commented on the decision. "The problem is that for compromise a form has to be found, all the same."
By postponing the tests, Bush signalled that the USA has no wish to take unilateral actions in respect to the treaty and will wait for an easing of Moscow's position. Announcing the postponed tests, Rumsfeld gave a reminder of this also. At the same time, the scenario of unilateral withdrawal from the document is not ruled out, as before. Since 11 September Bush has reiterated repeatedly (on the last occasion, a week ago, at the joint news conference with Vladimir Putin) that the creation of a secure missile shield is now even more urgent.
Experts are talking about two possible scenarios. The first is that the treaty is partially modified and the USA can conduct tests without violating its clauses. The second scenario is that Washington does unilaterally withdraw from the treaty to avoid tormenting itself and throwing an army of lawyers into finding various "weak points" and "grey areas" in the document.
- Back to the Top -