[Second Issue of the Day]
#10
ANALYSIS-Putin juggles options in Afghan government
dilemma
By Richard Balmforth
MOSCOW, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin is juggling tricky options after a summit with President George W. Bush and unscripted dead-of-night talks in Tajikistan on the future of Afghanistan.
As the international community wrestles with the question of who will rule Afghanistan after the U.S.-led campaign, analysts say Putin is weighing up alternatives that affect Russia's standing in the region and his personal prestige.
U.S. policy on Afghanistan, involving deep diplomatic manoeuvring with Pakistan, poses a particular dilemma for Putin who has to balance Russia's relations with other regional partners such as India and Iran.
But he is eager to exploit the golden opportunity of forging a new relationship with Washington and maintain Russia's high political visibility in the U.S.-led "anti-terrorist" campaign.
"Putin is having to manoeuvre between involvement in settling a very important international problem and his position as the person who will be blamed for any failures," Izvestia newspaper said on Tuesday.
Putin appears to have been alarmed by indications now that Washington, under pressure from Islamabad, is ready to agree to a role for moderate representatives of Afghanistan's ruling Taliban in any future Afghan government.
After meeting Bush in Shanghai on Sunday, Putin broke with his programme and hurriedly took a plane to Dushanbe where he met Tajikistan President Emomali Rakhmonov and Burhanuddin Rabbani, head of the U.N.-recognised Afghan leadership-in-exile, in the early hours of Monday.
The three men agreed that a future Afghan government should comprise all of Afghanistan's ethnic groups, but Putin ruled out participation by the Taliban, saying it had "compromised itself by cooperating with international terrorist organisations."
Putin, whose round-the-clock energy drew him applause at home, also used the meeting to demonstrate his support for Rabbani's Northern Alliance, one of the major Afghan groups fighting the Taliban.
EAGER TO AVOID FALLING OUT
"We want the authorities in Afghanistan to represent all ethnic groups in Afghanistan. We want them to enjoy broad international backing," Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said on Tuesday, confirming Kremlin policy.
Analysts were quick to point out, however, that this failed to clarify which political group would represent Afghanistan's Pashtun majority, which forms more than half of the population and dominates the ruling Taliban.
Given the high stakes involved, Putin is eager to avoid an open dispute with Washington on the issue, commentators said. And Putin will have in mind the Kremlin's previous failed attempts to impose pro-Moscow rulers in Kabul.
The crisis stemming from the September 11 hijacked airliner attacks in the United States and the subsequent U.S.-led "anti-terrorist" drive has presented Putin with an opportunity he does not want to waste.
After years of being excluded from decision-making on major international issues ranging from the Middle East to the Balkans, Putin knows he now has the ear of the White House.
"Today Putin is the number one newsmaker," Izvestia said. "He has now got the right to a voice and the feeling of a real partnership (with Washington), a feeling that Russia needed."
INDIA AND IRAN
Putin has also to bear in mind Russia's ties with other regional partners, commentators said.
Too close an identification with U.S. policy could harm Russia's relations with Iran, a significant economic partner which shares Moscow's view that Taliban rule should be ended.
Commentator Sanobar Shermatova, writing in Moskovskiye Novosti, said Moscow was also aware of unease in India -- a major arms client and partner of Russia -- which has taken the same line as Moscow against the Taliban.
"It is not in India's interests just now that the position of its rival Pakistan be strengthened in the region," Shermatova wrote.
Back to the Top
Next Article
October 24, 2001:
#5506
- Back to the Top -