#8 
BBC Monitoring 
Uzbek bid for special role may gain momentum - Kazakh newspaper 
Source: Panorama, Almaty, in Russian 12 Oct 01

According to Kazakh newspaper Panorama, if Uzbek-US cooperation continues to increase after Uzbekistan made its air force facilities available to the US military and the USA helps the Uzbek government tackle economic problems, this will add momentum to Uzbekistan's bid for a special role in Central Asia. The situation in the region becomes even more complex if Russia is factored in, the newspaper says. The following is the text of the report, published on 12 October. The subheadings have been inserted editorially:

Kazakhstan has unexpectedly faced a geopolitical situation, which was impossible to imagine until quite recently. The country is having to deal with pressing questions. Most analysts think that the military operation in Afghanistan will be quick and effective. Some think that it will drag on, even might be unpredictable at all in the long run. And here another version puts Kazakhstan in a complicated position.

US influence is expected to increase

In the first place, according to many local analysts (see, page 5) the influence of the USA in the [Central Asian] region will sharply grow through the US military presence with the support of Uzbekistan. [Note: page 5 is full of speculation by about more than 10 people on the US-led attack on Afghanistan and its possible consequences to Kazakhstan] If it is implemented, it is not difficult to imagine, in what way [Kazakhstan's] relations with [the Uzbek capital] Tashkent will develop. Uzbekistan's claim for regional leadership that has already become obviously palpable enough will get stronger. One can assume that territorial claims by our southern neighbours, as a tool for implementing these claims, will get more sensible. At this point, if the USA also helps the Uzbek government to tackle part of its economic problems, then Kazakhstan will be a serious loser in terms of regional proportion of forces in the region. Of course, one can hope that the USA will produce certain influence to contain these processes, however, obviously, it will also demand something in return.

Russia is a serious geopolitical factor

The scenario is realistic, of those, who say that all the events around Afghanistan has been stirred up by the USA in order to force out Russia's influence from the region, are right. However, with all its present weakness Moscow remains quite a serious geopolitical player and will always find a set of tool for counter pressure on Kazakhstan (the recent statement by Kalyuzhnyy on the Caspian is a part of these tools) [Note: Kazakh Commercial TV reported on 3 October that Russian president's special envoy to the Caspian region, Viktor Kalyuzhnyy called on Kazakhstan to back Russia's principle of dividing the sea at December 2001 summit of Caspian littoral states , if it wants to get bigger share of the sea] As a result, Kazakhstan runs the risk of finding itself between several serious players, at the same time remaining much weaker part of the game - an object of this game. That means, the picture of rivalry around Kazakhstan - often drawn by native specialists on geopolitics and has been fairy-tale till this moment - might now become reality. Can our young diplomacy behave itself as it is supposed to under the circumstances?

Uzbekistan seeks regional leadership

Another version of the development of events in Afghanistan is a long drawn-out war, spreading destabilization. With all the might of the US military pressure, such a development of events cannot be ruled out. In this case, our neighbours will not have time for claims for "northern territories", however, this will not make Kazakhstan, say, too happy, either. The spread of the Afghan conflict, sooner or later will cross the CIS borders, and join the fermentation in [eastern Uzbek] Fergana Region, the dissatisfaction, caused by social and economic tension virtually in the whole of post Soviet Central Asia, and all this fulminating mixture will blow up the fragile peace in the region. The emergence of the inter-Tajik conflict of the 1990s near our southern borders - even not immediately directed against the republic [of Kazakhstan] but more of a larger scale than was in Tajikistan - is more terrifying for Kazakhstan than the neighbour's territorial claim for regional leadership. The military possibilities of our country to defend itself against possible problems in this case cause big doubts, even despite the fact that we have recently begun to think more about our army and other power-wielding agencies.

Southern areas are facing economic problems

Any of these two version of the development of events in Afghanistan does not directly touch upon Kazakhstan, however, is fraught with serious problems in future. Kazakhstan has a very small set of tools for counteracting these problems. Of course, these are the increase in financing and reinforcing all power-wielding structures, of course - active diplomatic game, although there is a very narrow opportunity for manoeuvring. However, main efforts should be exerted not [to improve] outside, but [to improve] inside of the country. In the first place it is necessary to take measures to improve social and economic situation in the country's southern and southeastern regions. Under the circumstances, which will become simpler neither in five nor in ten years time, it is necessary to invest not very plentiful resources of the country to the development of the north, but to keep the south "afloat", the border area which is vulnerable in geopolitical terms.