April 18, 2001 

This Date's Issues:   5208 • 5209 • 5210

Johnson's Russia List
#5208
18 April 2001
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Reuters: Gusinsky accuses West of being blind to Putin.
2. RIA: MISS RUSSIA 2001 BEAUTY CONTEST ENDS IN MOSCOW.
3. Transitions Online: INTERACTIVE DISCUSSION: Hear the latest about the NTV takeover.
4. LIVE AT CARNEGIE: "Gazprom: A Test Case for President Putin." FEATURING: BORIS FEDOROV, former deputy prime minister of Russia.
5. Aleksei Mozhin at CSIS April 18: The IMF and Russia.
6. gazeta.ru: New Atom Minister Backs Nuclear Waste Imports.
7. Reuters: Russia defence minister downbeat on NMD talks.
8. Dmitri Glinski-Vassiliev: From market Bolshevism to market Stalinism.
9. Chicago Tribune: Andrew Kuchins, A LITTLE REALISM FOR THE REALISTS.
10. Moscow Times: Yevgenia Albats, How Private TV Was Killed.
11. Christian Science Monitor: Jonathan Maslow, Russia's dying free press.
12. RIA: VGTRK HEAD OLEG DOBRODEYEV: FAILURE OF THE JOURNALIST SYSTEM IS WHAT IS HAPPENING IN RUSSIA.
13. Reuters: FACTBOX-Who owns what in the Russian media?
14. Carol Dunn: The 90's 'ideological manipulation' of the media.
15. Novaya Gazeta: Anna Politkovskaya, BATTLES OVER THE NEW CRIMINAL CODE
CONTINUE. An interview with Yelena Mizulina on the new draft Criminal Code.
16. Newsday: Robert Cooke, The Siberia Effect. When snows there are early, deep and persistent, winters here are more severe.]

******

#1
Gusinsky accuses West of being blind to Putin
 
GENEVA, April 17 (Reuters) - Russia's embattled media mogul Vladimir Gusinsky
on Tuesday accused the West of turning a blind eye to what he called
President Vladimir Putin's "authoritarian drift" and his silencing of
independent media and judiciary.

In a full-page interview with the Geneva daily Le Temps, conducted in Spain,
he expressed bitter disappointment with the mute reaction of Western European
governments, singling out German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

Gusinsky also said he had reached a deal to sell his remaining stake in NTV
television -- by far the most influential source of information outside
Kremlin control -- to U.S. magnate Ted Turner three weeks ago.

"But I strongly doubt that Turner still wants to have a shareholding of a
medium henceforth controlled by the authorities," Gusinsky was quoted as
telling Le Temps from his residence in Sotogrande, Spain.

Gusinsky, who is fighting extradition to Russia from Spain on graft charges,
which he denies, says the Kremlin is using the state-dominated gas monopoly
Gazprom (GAZP.MO)(GAZPq.L) to silence a vocal critic.

He said NTV television had not been running a deficit, but this pretext had
been used for the takeover last week by Gazprom of his former star asset.

The company says a substantial Gusinsky shareholding pledged to Gazprom as
collateral for loans gives it de facto control. But the takeover has been
challenged as illegal in a case due in court on May 10.

Gusinsky received a new blow on Tuesday when co-owners of his key political
weekly magazine Itogi sacked all the editorial staff, just hours after
closing Sevodnya, its liberal sister daily.

In his interview with Le Temps, Gusinsky said that he hoped Spanish judges
would rule in his favour and not send him back, but criticised the West for
remaining "nearly silent" on Putin.

"Europe's reaction in the face of the authoritarian drift of Putin distresses
me profoundly -- it has been non-existent. What would have been heard during
the period of (former Yugoslav president Slobodan) Milosevic if he had taken
over the main independent Yugoslav television station?"

Asked if NTV was finished, he said: "Last year we had a profit of $14
million, on which we paid $4 million in taxes. In reality, the financial
situation of NTV was stable.

"The version which the Russian authorities are trying to give credence to is
that it was a simple conflict between shareholders. This is a lie: it is a
fight between one shareholder, Media-Most, which represents journalists, and
another, Gazprom-Media, which directly represents the state.

"When Putin explained his version of the facts at the start of last week to
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who was visiting Moscow, he simply lied
to him," he was quoted as telling the Geneva daily.

He said: "Schroeder mentioned the NTV affair in Putin's presence, but seemed
to keep his distance, without insisting."

"Most of the European governments have adopted a policy of appeasement
regarding the Kremlin, which consists of saying nothing even when the acts of
the Putin regime go violently against their own principles. We saw it in
Chechnya and now we are seeing it with NTV," he added.

Gusinsky also said that lawyers in Moscow and Washington were looking at the
NTV shareholders' meeting of April 1, which he had good reason to believe was
"fixed."

But asked his expectations, Gusinsky replied: "Today, the (Russian) judicial
system has sworn allegiance to the political power at all levels, it enjoys
no independence.

He said that he expected nothing to come of the appeal filed to the Russian
Supreme Court, to be examined on May 10.

Asked whether he might try to emigrate to Israel, Gusinsky said: "Like all
Jews, I have two homelands, Russia and Israel. I remain attached to Moscow,
but my attachment has limits.

"Whatever happens, I will never return to Putin's Russia. It is not my
Russia," he was quoted as telling Le Temps.

******

#2
MISS RUSSIA 2001 BEAUTY CONTEST ENDS IN MOSCOW

MOSCOW, APRIL 17, 2001, /RIA-NOVOSTI CORRESPONDENT OLGA ZUBKOVA/ -- Moscow
hosted the national Miss Russia 2001 beauty contest's finals in the evening
of April 16. 77 most beautiful girls representing many Russian regions vied
for victory during two days running.

Oksana Fedorova from St. Petersburg became Miss Russia, what with Oksana
Kovandareva from Western Siberia's Khanty-Mansi autonomous area becoming
first runner-up; and Tatiana Pavlova from the Republic of Tatarstan (Russia's
Volga region) was second runner-up.

Police lieutenant Oksana Fedorova, 23, who is now undergoing a post-graduate
course at the Russian Interior Ministry's St. Petersburg university, received
a Mercedes-Benz limo. Apart from that, Fedorova won a hairdo contest,
receiving a diamond-studded watch as a result. And, finally, she received a
$1,000 check from the Wild Orchid ladies' shop.

The audience was entertained by well-known Russian performers, such as
Vladimir Presnyakov Jr., Igor Nikolayev, Alla Dukhova's Todes ballet troupe,
as well as the Moralny Kodeks (Moral Code), Mark Twain and Dynamite music
groups.

******

#3
Date: 17 Apr 2001
From: "Transitions Online" <mail@tol.cz>
Subject: INTERACTIVE DISCUSSION: Hear the latest about the NTV takeover

- - - INTERACTIVE DISCUSSION: Hear the latest about the NTV takeover - - -

Transitions Online, in association with Washingtonpost.com, presents a live
online discussion on the Russian NTV crisis with media specialist and
advisory board member Alexei Pankin. Join us on Wednesday 18 April at 11 a.m. Eastern
Daylight Time, 5 p.m. Central European Time.
http://discuss.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/zforum/01/world_pankin041801.htm

******

#4
Date: Tue, 17 Apr 2001
From: "Julie Shaw" <jshaw@ceip.org>
Subject: Live at Carnegie: Boris Fedorov

LIVE AT CARNEGIE: "Gazprom: A Test Case for President Putin"
FEATURING: BORIS FEDOROV, former deputy prime minister of Russia
Wednesday, April 18, 2001, 12:45 PM (E.S.T.)

Tune in on Wednesday, April 18 at 12:45 PM (E.S.T.) to listen to Boris
Fedorov,
Russia s former deputy prime minister, discuss his investigation of Gazprom,
the state energy monopoly that recently gained notoriety for taking over the
independent television channel NTV. A non-executive member of Gazprom s board
of directors, Dr. Fedorov has examined how Gazprom has transferred assets
cheaply to private companies owned by relatives of the company s top
executives. He will also discuss Gazprom s role in the NTV drama.

Dr. Fedorov will be speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
in Washington, DC. You can hear the audio of his presentation LIVE by tuning
into the Carnegie Endowment s website on Wednesday, April 18 at 12:45 PM
(E.S.T.). The audio of the event will be archived, remaining available on the
site.

To listen, click on the following url:
http://www.ceip.org/files/events/fedorov.asp

If you need Windows Media Player, it can be downloaded from:
http://www.microsoft.com/windows/windowsmedia/en/software/playerv7.asp

BORIS FEDOROV served twice as Russia s deputy prime minister and minister of
finance and now works in the private sector. Dr. Fedorov founded the
investment bank United Financial Group. He is also a member of the board of directors of
the Unified Energy Systems and of Sberbank.

For more information on the Carnegie Endowment, visit
http://www.ceip.org

******

#5
Date: Tue, 17 Apr 2001
From: "Keith Bush" <KBush@CSIS.ORG>
Subject: Mozhin at CSIS April 18

Forthcoming Event at CSIS

Wednesday, April 18, 3:305:00 PM, at CSIS, 1800 K Street, NW
Aleksei Mozhin, Executive Director for the Russian Federation at the IMF
"The IMF and Russia"
On the record
No fee, but those who wish to attend are requested to register with
jthomas@csis.org, giving their name, affiliation, and telephone number.

*****

#6
gazeta.ru
April 17, 2001
New Atom Minister Backs Nuclear Waste Imports
By Lisa Vronskaya

On Wednesday the lower house of the Russian parliament will give the second
reading to a draft bill of amendments to effective environmental protection
laws, which if passed will allow for the import of spent nuclear fuel into
Russia.

On Monday Alexander Rumyantsev, who recently replaced Yevgeny Adamov as the
head of Russian Nuclear Ministry, held a news conference whereat he
declared his support to the draft bill which would clear the way for Russia
to earn billions of dollars from importing, storing, and reprocessing
nuclear waste. Rumyantsev's predecessor Adamov also supported the bill.

If enacted, amendments to clause 50 of the Law On Environmental Protection,
would allow the Nuclear Ministry to import nuclear waste from abroad for
storage and reprocessing.

Rumyantsev's predecessor, Yevgeny Adamov, sacked at the end of March,
succeeded in winning the Duma's approval of the amendments in the first
reading last New Year's Eve. The ministry's proposed amendments were
approved by an overwhelming majority of 338 votes for and 39 against.

The second reading was scheduled for March 22nd, but was rescheduled after
the lawmakers requested more time to consider the bill more carefully.

The Nuclear Ministry claims nuclear waste imports and reprocessing could
bring Russia $21 billion, but environmentalists have staunchly opposed the
project from the very start.

After Yevgeny Adamov's dismissal three weeks ago, Russian environmentalists
placed great hopes on the new minister. However, on the first day following
his appointment Alexander Rumyantsev refused to comment on the issue,
saying he needed time to study all the issues involved.

And on Monday he eventually revealed his position.

Alexander Rumyantsev said that project to import nuclear waste has been
endorsed by the government, and therefore the bill of amendments will more
than likely be passed by the obedient Duma. "Any production is dangerous
for a human being, and the spent nuclear fuel imports project is not the
most complicated of all projects carried out by the Atomic Ministry," the
minister argued.

Rumyantsev mentioned that the Ministry has stored and reprocessed its own
spent nuclear fuel since 1977 and claimed that Russia has all the
technology to guarantee the safe handling of nuclear waste. The Atomic
Energy Minister said that due to the current ban, Russia is losing
potential income to Ukraine and Finland.

Alexander Rumyantsev has also not changed the atom ministry's policy of
cooperation with foreign states. At Monday's conference Rumyantsev said his
ministry would complete its contracted projects at Iran's Bushehr nuclear
power station. However, he was non-committal about a potential project to
build a second reactor there.

"If we are lagging behind schedule on the construction of the first Bushehr
nuclear power plant, then we will catch up. We must fulfill our contractual
obligations," he said.

The minister asserted that the Bushehr contract signed in 1995 did not
violate Moscow's international treaty obligations as the power station is
strictly for civilian use.

The United States, which opposes the sale of nuclear technology to Iran,
which it considers a "rogue state", has expressed alarm at suggestions that
Moscow could build more reactors for the Islamic republic.

******

#7
Russia defence minister downbeat on NMD talks
 
MINSK, April 17 (Reuters) - Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov said on
Tuesday he was not optimistic about the prospects of U.S.-Russian dialogue
over Washington's proposed national missile defence (NMD), as plans for the
system remained unclear.

Russia has opposed the U.S. plans for NMD as it says the system would
undermine its own arsenal and would also amount to tearing up the key 1972
Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty, which it sees as the cornerstone of
nuclear deterrence.

"I don't feel any optimism after recently returning from Washington. The new
U.S. administration needs to define its approach," Ivanov told a news
conference in Minsk.

Ivanov visited Washington in March to meet top officials in President George
W. Bush's administration in his previous capacity as secretary of the
influential Security Council, a presidential advisory body comprising top
security officials. Russian President Vladimir Putin named him defence
secretary at the end of last month.

"In my view, the U.S. administration still has more questions than answers,"
said the defence minister, who was in the Belarussian capital for talks on
military affairs.

Washington says it needs the NMD shield to protect its territory from
surprise rocket attacks by so-called "rogue states," such as Iran or North
Korea.

The United States has offered to extend NMD to cover Europe to encourage its
NATO allies to back the plan.

Moscow has tried to rally European support behind an alternative scheme,
already submitted to NATO, which stresses diplomatic efforts to defuse any
crisis but could ultimately involve stationing missiles close to countries
causing concern.

"The kind of safety net we are proposing does not violate the treaty, but
would counter threats," Ivanov said, adding that other Western states were
also concerned at U.S. intentions to back out of international agreements.

Ivanov said if faced with the prospect of the United States' exit from the
1972 ABM treaty, Russia would initiate the creation of a "Euro NMD."

Ivanov said a date had not yet been fixed for the next round of talks between
Moscow and Washington on NMD issues.

******

#8
Date: Tue, 17 Apr 2001
From: "Dmitri Glinski-Vassiliev" <dmitri_glinski@mtu-net.ru>
Subject: From market Bolshevism to market Stalinism

With the latest raids and newspaper takeovers, I wonder whether people in
the West will begin at last to get the message that "bankruptcy" and similar
words have become Russian newspeak for the tools of
government terror.

The question is whether such an old-fashioned thing as the public opinion of
intellectuals independent of their corporations and governments is by now
dead. If all this were to happen in the 70s or the 80s, we would already
have seen some committee in support of Soviet journalists, and the issue
would have been brought up in US Congress and, more importantly, in European
parliaments. How much easier to run a dictatorship in Russia when the West
does not care (and most Russians do not care when it does).

In this context, it was predictable that nobody would pay attention to the
recent police takeover of a part of Yury Afanasyev's Humanitarian
University, done with participation of the Orthodox Church. The same about
the completion of the coup in the Jewish community, with Gusinsky-friendly
rabbi now expelled from the President's council on religions and replaced
with a Putin-loyal foreigner (I guess, same idea as putting Boris
Jordan in charge of NTV). I don't think the latter two events were even
registered in Western media. In the following months, expect the shutting
down of more newspapers, plus financial blockade and fiscal harassment of
select academic institutions.

Dmitri Glinski
IMEMO
dmitriglinski@yahoo.com

******

#9
Chicago Tribune
April 17, 2001
A LITTLE REALISM FOR THE REALISTS
By Andrew C. Kuchins. Andrew C. Kuchins directs the Russian and Eurasian
program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Spy expulsions, spy plane and now "Spy Kids;" looks like 2001 will be
regarded as the "Year of the Spy." But the recent spymania, which has
captured the attention of the public, is only window dressing as the Bush
administration reviews key U.S. foreign and security policy challenges. Bush
gave a visionary speech on the campaign trail about the opportunities to
decisively break away from the Cold War paradigm that continues to frame the
U.S.-Russian strategic nuclear relationship despite the fact we are nearly a
decade past the collapse of our former super-power adversary, the Soviet
Union.

Russians anxiously monitor every word from Washington and have been dismayed
in recent months with high-level administration officials talking about
Russia as a threat to U.S. national security in ways they have not heard for
more than a decade. Is this the "new Realism" promised by the Bush team and
initially welcomed by Moscow after their disappointment with unfulfilled
Clinton promises, or is it the rhetorical underpinning to support a future
U.S. decision to abandon the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in order to
deploy a national missile defense? The missile defense issue is potentially
the next great train wreck in U.S.-Russian relations, but it also can
possibly lead to genuine security cooperation between Moscow and Washington.

The Russians have acknowledged that the threat of a ballistic missile attack
has grown in recent years. In February they proposed to NATO to discuss this
threat and explore diplomatic and technical means to address it. While many
have been quick to dismiss this proposal as a tactic to delay deployment
and/or split the U.S. from its European allies, we should take the Russians
up on their offer and engage in serious discussions to find out if there is a
"there" there. Terrorist attacks in Russia, Taliban support for destabilizing
weak regimes in Central Asia and a second war in Chechnya have sensitized
many Russian foreign-policy elites to imminent threats from its south.
Russian President Vladimir Putin chewed out his National Security Council in
February for failures to control the leakage of sensitive technologies. Some
Russians have informally discussed collaboration on boost-phase missile
defense systems that were all the rage in Republican circles last year.

How the Bush administration handles missile defense will go a long way in
defining the parameters of international security. We will not live in the
"post-Cold War era" forever, and Russian concern about U.S. plans on missile
defense is not simply Cold War neuralgia.

Realists understand that international security is a little like physics in
that actions induce reactions. Failure to reach agreement to modify the ABM
treaty, or better yet, reach agreement with the Russians on a new framework
that addresses both offensive and defensive strategic systems, in order to
develop and deploy a national missile defense system will, as the president
was fond of saying during the campaign, "have a consequence."

Russia will be pushed to closer strategic cooperation with China, something
neither we nor many Russians welcome. China will build more nukes and
missiles faster than currently planned, and this will affect Indian and
consequently Pakistani deployments. Japan may even reconsider the credibility
of the U.S. nuclear umbrella and embark on its own nuclear weapons program.

The list of potential consequences goes on, but the net result is likely a
more unstable international strategic environment. The president is right in
noting that the enduring Cold War strategic framework is an anachronism.
Let's just make sure we replace it with something safer and not more
dangerous.

******

#10
Moscow Times
April 17, 2001
How Private TV Was Killed
By Yevgenia Albats  
 
So, it has happened. The so-called "tough plan" developed by the Kremlin's
top secret analytical group has been put into action. As opposed to the
"mild" one that was in use before, this one envisions the quick silencing
of any dissident voices - of course, with the aim of making Russia a
paradise of imperial glory.

Early Saturday morning, broad-shouldered guys from Invest-Security (the
private security of Boris Jordan's Sputnik fund) with the help of the
Ostankino's FSB and police bosses walked into NTV. Except for the company's
own security, there was almost no one there. The cameras that had monitored
the entrance the previous week had been removed a couple of days earlier.
The state of emergency that kept shifts of reporters in the offices around
the clock had been abandoned as well.

Why? The journalists were certain that no siege would happen that day. For
one thing, President Vladimir Putin had said that the courts must settle
the dispute and a hearing is set for May 17. For another, Jordan himself -
as late as Friday afternoon, just 12 hours before the seizure - had said,
"no seizure of NTV by force is going to happen." So the rebellious
journalists relaxed.

But their opponents did not. The takeover was carefully prepared. The new
guards had lists of journalists who were to be admitted into the NTV
newsroom on Saturday and of those who were not. The building's elevators
had been re-programmed so that they did not stop at NTV's eighth floor.
Special guards in unmarked Zhigulis were stationed around the building.

The raid was also perfectly timed. Most of NTV's supporters were busy
cooking Easter cakes and dying eggs. In keeping with Orthodox traditions,
people visit their relatives' graves on the day before Easter night. After
70 years of repression and murder, the urge to share something positive
with the nation's dead is very strong, and the authorities knew that people
would not abandon it in order to protest in support of NTV as they had the
previous weeks.

Further, no newspapers come out on Sundays. No protests would come from the
print media. The two other national television stations were already under
state control. They didn't disturb the peace with any significant coverage.
The entire burden of covering the weekend's events fell to Media-MOST's
radio station, Ekho Moskvy.

Jordan's NTV was able to fill its airtime with documentaries and shows that
had been taped earlier by journalists who walked out. Thus, viewers
throughout the country were led to believe that nothing dramatic had
happened. They continued to see the familiar faces of NTV. Thus, Sunday
night viewers saw the satire "Kukly," criticizing Putin as uncompromisingly
as ever. Only later, if ever, did they learn that the show's main writer,
Viktor Shenderovich, had left NTV together with his colleagues.

Finally, the seizure allowed the Kremlin to resolve its "Ted Turner"
problem. The authorities by no means wanted any foreign investor to become
an owner of NTV, but in view of the June G-7 meeting, the Kremlin wanted to
maintain a democratic facade. Now, Turner will most likely cut off the
negotiations himself.

We should give the Kremlin team its due: The plan was very well thought out.

But a bad thing - perhaps even a real tragedy - did in fact happen Saturday
morning. As of that moment, all three major national television channels
came under complete state control. The Kremlin achieved its goal of
acquiring an unchallenged monopoly in the information field. Now its hands
are untied. Just as people in Leonid Brezhnev's Soviet Union knew nothing
about the existence of Perm-35, the special labor camp for political
prisoners, now the public will be unaware of the unfolding of the rest of
the Kremlin's "tough plan."

The yearlong drama of NTV was first and foremost about the state's plan to
monopolize Russia's information field. That is how this story differs from,
say, the editorial changes at the once-famous Atlanta Journal-Constitution
(the public demonstrated when editor Bill Kovach was fired there as well)
or the reporters' strike at the New York Daily News when it was purchased
by the Chicago Tribune Co. in 1990.

Don't be fooled. The NTV story is essentially, fundamentally different. It
is not about business and it is not about the demand of reporters to choose
editors they like. It is about politics. It is about democracy in Russia, a
democracy that perished early Saturday morning.

Yevgenia Albats is an independent, Moscow-based journalist.
 
******

#11
Christian Science Monitor
April 18, 2001
Russia's dying free press
By Jonathan Maslow
Jonathan Maslow is a Knight International Press Fellow on a year-long
assignment assessing Russian media for the International Center for
Journalists in Washington.

Valery Popov, the gaunt, snow-haired editor of the Russian newspaper Voronezh
Times, pulls his turtleneck up to his chin in his heatless office and regards
the day's edition with evident distaste: four pages so thin you could sip
borscht through them. There's a full page of television listings, because
Russians buy newspapers these days mostly to find out what's on the tube.
Only an occasional, small advertisement pokes out of the gray masses of text
and posed photos.

"We don't sell advertising," says Mr. Popov sarcastically. "We sell our
political influence. Or whatever is left of it."

As the struggle in Moscow over the independent national TV station, NTV,
concludes with a takeover by the state-owned gas company, independent news
media throughout Russia are suffering their own crises and crucifixions.
Since the ruble's sudden devaluation in August 1998, newspaper circulation
has plummeted, dailies have become weeklies, and weeklies have bit the dust.
TV advertising bases have eroded, profits have disappeared, and staff
salaries have stagnated or remained unpaid.

"Now we work only out of journalistic enthusiasm," says Sergei Trushnikov,
editor of the Perm Star, a 75-year-old staff-owned daily in the Ural
Mountains.

Like a shark sensing blood in the water, federal, regional, and local
governing powers - which Russians refer to with one word, vlast - have been
doing exactly what Gazprom has done to NTV: move in on the independent media
to make sure the nation that lost Marx and Lenin as guiding lights 10 years
ago will never find a Jefferson or Pulitzer, much less their own Woodwards
and Bernsteins. The aim of the state, bureaucracy, and oligarchic elite is to
use the mass media to shape a fake democracy just as the Soviets shaped a
fake socialism.

"In Russia, financial tools are more important than legal tools," says Sergei
Levitan, a publisher in Perm who recently put his 5-year-old newspaper out of
its misery, after losses mounted.

The vlast, explains Mr. Levitan, has a big chest full of financial tools,
short of censorship and outright repression, with which to murder the infant
Russian free press in its cradle. It can raise the cost of newsprint, an
industry still firmly under state control. It can stop the printing presses,
also still a state monopoly. It can arrange for the state-monopoly postal
service to hike newspaper delivery rates for media that "misbehave." Or tell
the state-owned kiosks to stop selling a newspaper that criticizes the
government. Or raise the rent of a newspaper or TV station's offices, almost
always located in a state-owned building. Or raise utility bills. Or send in
the tax authorities. It can pressure advertisers to shun media that speak
out.

Russian politicians and oligarchs, whose skins are thinner than the average
Russian potato's, also don't hesitate to punish outspoken media in the
courts, taking full advantage of the fact that neither judges nor lawyers
have a firm grasp on the contradictory laws governing freedom of speech and
of the press.

"During last year's election campaign, we published a story comparing our
incumbent governor's previous campaign promises to his actual accomplishments
in office," said Natalia Sirota, editor of the weekly Liziukova Street
Gazette in Voronezh.

"He sued us under the Election Law, which forbids commentary on a candidate
during the election campaign. We defended our story under the Media Law,
guaranteeing freedom of the press. No one really knew which law was higher.
But the judge ruled against us."

Well aware that only the mass media can nourish the Russian people's
less-than-confident belief in their right to have their own ideas and express
them, the oligarchic state from Moscow to Magadan has used its tools to
eliminate the mass media as serious participants in a democratic process. The
majority of Russia's 3,000-plus newspapers and TV stations have been
recaptured by the state. They exist now as the timid official organs of
regional or city administrations or legislative bodies, just as in Soviet
days.

Much of the rest of Russia's media have digested the message and turned to
"yellow" journalism, publishing vlast-friendly crime-sex-celebrity stuff -
along with the inevitable TV listings - just to make money. Some have been
gobbled up by Russia's oligarchs, who find it useful to own media to further
their business, political, or egomaniacal agendas.

What few molecules of free air still survive in Russia's information space
have done so, up till now, through sheer pluck and self-sacrifice. Russian
journalists do not lack these qualities. After all, they are Russians and
have a millennium of experience with harsh rulers. But they understand all
too well for whom the bell tolls in the vlast's move against NTV last week.

As Mr. Popov puts it, "We cut down the poison tree. But the roots remained
and are growing back. The main thing now is to prevent a return to
totalitarianism."

******

#12
VGTRK HEAD OLEG DOBRODEYEV: FAILURE OF THE JOURNALIST SYSTEM IS WHAT IS HAPPENING IN RUSSIA

MOSCOW, April 17, 2001. /From RIA Novosti correspondent/--Oleg Dobrodeyev,
who heads the VGTRK, or the All-Russia State TV and Radio Commission, thinks
the NTV business has gone "too far to be just a squabble over a TV company."
"Failure of the journalist system is what is happening in Russia now,"
Dobrodeyev told the Izvestiya newspaper.

According to the VGTRK chief, "it is not just the status of journalists
inside the corporation that is changing, their role in society, their
relations with the state, with owners, with money are all changing too."
Before the scandal, journalists "were free to harbor an illusion" that "we
get paid because we are good," but now they will have to "answer the same
question every day -- where do we get the money and how do we earn it?" In
Dobrodeyev's opinion, over the past year the situation with NTV "could have
gone in different directions." The whole business might have "evolved into a
catastrophe," noted Dobrodeyev, who thinks he is also "partially to blame for
that." "When I realized it was time to join the negotiating process, it was
too late," he said, recalling that "on two occasions, Kiselyov refused to
join Pozner in a live discussion" with the VGTRK head.

"The management, the owners of the channel should have talked things over
instead of driving journalists to despair, to this half-crazed state," but
the NTV management apparently "had already thought of a way out" and were
keeping it to themselves, said Dobrodeyev, who thinks "NTV will be replaced
by a new company now." "Being the best non-governmental company, NTV must
survive," went on the VGTRK chief. "Strange as it may seem, today it has a
better chance of surviving." As soon as the crisis is over, "the new
management will have no other option but do what it can to make NTV more
independent and more respectable than it is now." "The task facing the new
management is to get rid of all that's alien to the company and prepare it
for public sale," believes Dobrodeyev.

Hopefully, "we have a normal life ahead, a life that is calmer and less
hysterical, but, alas, poorer. I mean metropolitan stars. No more big
'political' salaries for them." Dobrodeyev does not think the NTV conflict
jeopardizes freedom of speech. "The worst situation with freedom of speech is
not in Moscow or at NTV, it's in the regions where they really crush
journalists, remove chiefs and sack editors," he stressed.

As far as TV-6 goes, Dobrodeyev believes it will have "a new team, new people
and different news." "Clearly, TV-6 shareholders are building a bridgehead, a
bulwark, a belt of information defence."

******

#13
FACTBOX-Who owns what in the Russian media?
 
MOSCOW, April 17 (Reuters) - Co-owners of Vladimir Gusinsky's key political
weekly magazine Itogi sacked its editorial staff on Tuesday, hours after
shutting down a daily newspaper belonging to the same Sem Dnei publishing
house.

The state-dominated gas company Gazprom seized control of Gusinsky's NTV
television station last week and he is in Spain fighting extradition on fraud
charges he denies.

He says he is the victim of a Kremlin crackdown on independent media. The
Kremlin denies this, saying it is a commercial matter.

Following is a breakdown of who owns which Russian media outlets, compiled
with the help of industry experts, analysts and the companies involved where
possible.

TELEVISION

RTR and Kultura national channels -- state-owned.

ORT - Majority state-owned; Russian media have reported that media-to-motor
cars oligarch Boris Berezovsky sold his 49 percent stake to businessman Roman
Abramovich, who has close links with the Kremlin, according to political
analysts.

NTV national station, Prometei regional channel -- owned by Gazprom.

TV6 channel, which broadcasts to 69 Russian cities -- controlled by
Berezovsky, who was close to former President Boris Yeltsin. He has lost
influence under Putin but is talking to old rival Gusinsky about creating an
independent TV channel.

Regional Ren TV -- electricity monopoly United Energy System (EESR.RTS) has a
controlling stake and oil major LUKOIL or its affiliates also own a large
share.

NTV Plus satellite channel and TNT, a smaller station where ex-NTV
journalists are broadcasting. Owned by Gusinsky.

NEWSPAPERS

Liberal daily Sevodnya -- closed down this week by Vladimir Biryukov, who is
co-owner with Gusinsky of the Sem Dnei publishing house.

Business daily Kommersant and popular dailies Nezavisimaya Gazeta and Noviye
Izvestia -- controlled by Boris Berezovsky.

Komsomolskaya Pravda and Izvestia dailies -- both more than 50 percent owned
by Prof-Media, an arm of Vladimir Potanin's Interros holding. Interros also
owns huge Siberian metals firm Norilsk Nickel (NKEL.RTS) and major bank
Rosbank.

Business daily Vedomosti -- a joint venture between the Moscow-based
Independent Media Group, the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal. Vremya
Novostei - formally controlled by Russia's central bank and state-controlled
savings bank Sberbank.

RADIO STATIONS

Radio Mayak, Radio Rossiya -- state-owned.

Ekho Moskvy -- part of Gusinsky's Media-Most group.

FOREIGN PLAYERS

Independent Media Group (IMG).

Founded by Dutch businessman Derk Sauer, who still owns 54 percent with his
associates. Dutch publisher VNU (VNUN.AS) owns 35 percent and Menatep SA,
which belongs to Mikhail Khodorkovsky, holds nine percent. Khodorkovsky is
CEO of oil major YUKOS (YUKO.RTS). IMG publishes:

Vedomosti, English-language dailies The Moscow Times and The St Petersburg
Times; Russian versions of Playboy, Cosmopolitan and Men's Health among
others.

StoryFirst Communications.

The largest Western investor in Russia's media, with holdings in a range of
TV and radio stations. Its main concern is a 75 percent stake in the CTC
entertainment TV network. Alfa Bank, Russia's largest private bank, is the
other shareholder in CTC with 25 percent. StoryFirst owns eight television
stations and seven radio stations.

******

#14
Date: Tue, 17 Apr 2001
From: "Carol Dunn" <MaximTv@hotmail.com>
Subject: The 90's 'ideological manipulation' of the media

I have read references in many Russian and Western articles about
misinformation by the Western and Russian media to imply that reforms in
Russia were going better than they really were.  It is usually implied, or
stated openly, that this misinformation was planned and carried out by the
US government to purposely manipulate the media in a sinister attempt to
mislead the World's public and promote American interests.

As a participant in the process, I suggest that there is a simpler
explanation, that is far less sinister.  The authors of these claims are
forgetting the nature of the Western technical assistance programs
(undertaken, by the way, by almost every developed country, not just the US)
the programs were primarily short term projects staffed with Western
Consultants.  Anyone who has ever worked with Consulting firms know that the
primary role of any consultant, though unstated,  is to extend the length of
the project they are working on.  The way consultants do this is to work to
convince everyone that that the project they are working on is important and
successful.  The way this is done is to provide glowing press releases and
reports. Anyone who has worked with consulting firms also knows that it is
very easy for consultants to describe something that is very simple in a way
that makes it seem quite impressive and worthy of the outrageous fees.

I am sure that the US government, in particular USAID, did not go to much
work to counter the volumes of reports discussing how brilliant each project
is--having the projects seem successful and important fit their interests as
well, since it ensured continued funding, but this is not the same thing as
conducting a systematic campaign designed to knowingly mislead Russia.  The
misinformation provided in the mid 90's was not a result of a sinister plot,
but the result of thousands of consultants on hundreds of projects trying to
extend their projects and stay employed indefinately.

******

#15
Novaya Gazeta
April 16-18, 2001
BATTLES OVER THE NEW CRIMINAL CODE CONTINUE
An interview with Yelena Mizulina on the new draft Criminal Code
Author: Anna Politkovskaya
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
RUSSIA'S EXISTING CRIMINAL CODE IS A RELIC OF THE STALIN ERA, AND
ONLY GENERATES AND FACILITATES CORRUPTION. THE NEW DRAFT CRIMINAL CODE INTRODUCES SOME RADICAL CHANGES TO SEPARATE POWERS, REDUCE CORRUPTION, AND INCREASE ACCOUNTABILITY. PROSECUTORS, INVESTIGATORS, AND JUDGES WILL ALL BE AFFECTED.

     A few questions for Yelena Mizulina: Duma deputy, leader of the
team working on the draft Criminal Code, deputy chairwoman of the Duma
Legislative Committee.

     Question: Why can't we just take the old Criminal Code and make
some appropriate amendments?

     Yelena Mizulina: That is impossible. The Criminal Code we have
now was adopted in 1960. In fact, it preserved the system of relations
between the state and the individual that existed back in 1937. Do you
know what that is? It is an operational mechanism for instigating
criminal proceedings. It is a mechanism which exerts great pressure on
all aspects of our lives.

     Under the existing Criminal Code, real power over society is
wielded by those who use criminal-procedural tools. Please understand
this - they are not even the top state officials. The greatest
influence is wielded by the prosecutor and chief of the investigation
department (a mere administrator in charge of police detectives). They
control many mechanisms enabling them to promote their own interests
and the interests of their associates. From this point of view, the
Criminal Code we have now only generates and facilitates corruption.
Hence we have a situation where a mechanism created in the 1930s (the
main postulates of the 1960 Criminal Code were taken from the Code
adopted in 1938) to fight dissent is being used for this particular
purpose today. The NTV case is a perfect example. Moreover, this
mechanism is used in business rivalry.

     This situation suits the law enforcement system perfectly. It
doesn't have to strain its intellectual resources or try to prevent
crime - it just instigates criminal proceedings by the million, and
makes life as hard as possible for individuals. After all, charges can
be quietly dropped afterwards. These days, about 3 million Russian
citizens a year are charged - but only 1.4 million cases actually go
to court. No one is held accountable for unfair and unjustified
harassment, or for incompetence on the part of investigators and
prosecutors. This ineffective system is horrible, and it affects the
lives of too many Russian citizens.

     Question: Which aspects of the new Criminal Code will compel the
law enforcement system to change?

     Mizulina: This will be an entire system of measures, well-
balanced and tough. First and foremost, we propose a separation of
powers. Only one structure should handle investigation. These days,
everyone is involved, even the courts. Courts are a different matter.
Courts should not be allowed to instigate criminal proceedings or
demand an additional investigation. Actually, additional investigation
as a universal means of correcting the investigation's mistakes will
be abolished entirely. Neither should the courts do the prosecutors'
work for them any longer. The function of investigation should be
separated from that of prosecution. The prosecutor alone will be
responsible for prosecution. The prosecutor will have to take the
evidence and present it. Investigators will be collecting all sorts of
evidence in any given case; an investigator should compile all
evidence, all pros and cons.

     Something similar was initiated in Russia in 1864. It took us
some time then to produce highly professional and capable
investigators. Afterwards, there were constant attempts to split
investigation into minor cases (we have very many of them, cases in
which the penalty is two or three years imprisonment) and major
crimes.

     Our working group considers that minor cases should be left to
the police and tax police. At the same time, investigation of all
complex cases should be concentrated in the hands of a single state
structure independent of all law enforcement agencies. Something like
a Federal Investigation Service. Such a body might be formed from the
existing Investigation Committee of the Interior Ministry. Needless to
say, the Investigation Committee should be withdrawn from the Interior
Ministry first.

>From our files:

The Interior Ministry has 63,000 investigators. In 2000, they
investigated almost 90% of all criminal cases in Russia (a total of
almost 2 million cases were investigated). Interior Ministry
investigators handle a third of bribery cases, half of cases involving
gangsters and organized crime, and over 90% of all white-collar crime
cases.

     Mizulina: There is nothing new about the idea of a Federal
Investigation Service. The idea has existed since 1864. Unfortunately,
it was not implemented before 1917. The Investigation Committee of the
Interior Ministry was established under Yerevan; it was another step
toward a Federal Investigation Service. The government didn't go as
far as making the investigation absolutely independent. We have to
summon the courage now to take the final step.

     Moreover, we suggest that courts be given the power to issue
arrest warrants (individuals may only be detained for 48 hours without
a court warrant); to choose measures of restraint; to authorize
telephone surveillance and opening private correspondence; to issue
search warrants, and so on. The courts should authorize all this. The
president supports us on this point.

MARA POLYAKOVA, A HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST AND CHAIRWOMAN OF THE INDEPENDENT EXPERT-LEGAL COUNCIL: WE THINK WE SHOULD GO FARTHER THAN THAT. WHENEVER A PERSON IS CHARGED WITH A CRIME WHICH CARRIES A PENALTY OF IMPRISONMENT, THIS PERSON SHOULD HAVE THE RIGHT TO TRIAL BY JURY. THE PRINCIPLE IS SIMPLE. IF I DISTRUST THE STATE OR THINK IT IS BIASED, I SHOULD HAVE THE RIGHT TO A JURY TRIAL. THE CRIMINAL CODE SHOULD REMOVE RESTRICTIONS ON JURIES. JURY TRIALS ARE ONLY AVAILABLE IN NINE RUSSIAN REGIONS AT PRESENT. IT IS COMMON KNOWLEDGE THAT WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF TORTURE DURING INVESTIGATION FOR THE PURPOSE OF OBTAINING CONFESSION. WITH JURY TRIALS, THE USE OF TORTURE WILL BECOME POINTLESS.

     Question: Unfortunately, the quality of judges leaves much to be
desired. Corruption among judges appears almost universal. It isn't
hard to see that judges depend on the police, investigators,
prosecutors... Given this situation, can we expand their powers and
expect an immediate improvement?

     Mizulina: Yes, all this is unfortunately true. On the other hand,
despite all the flaws in the court system, courts in Russia nowadays
are better than the prosecutor's office or police investigation from
the point of view of human rights. The prosecutor and investigator are
part of a hierarchy; the judge is not. Moreover, a court is an open
structure where opponents can meet and argue. The court system is
transparent now. It may even be checked out by the European human
rights tribunal...

     Question: What do you think awaits the prosecutor's office?

     Mizulina: We believe that prosecutors should participate in all
criminal cases. This is not the case in Russia at present, and judges
are forced to substitute. After all, the prosecution should be
represented in the courtroom, right? Most members of the working group
agree that the prosecutor should handle criminal prosecution, and
should represent the state in criminal proceedings. Paradoxically
enough, no one wants to be the prosecution on behalf of the state; the
prosecutors only aim to observe. But observation is Vyshinsky's
concept. You lord it over the courtroom, without being accountable for
anything. But if prosecutors are made the state prosecution, they will
be accountable for its quality.

     Question: Is it true that the institution of public defense is to
be abolished by the new Criminal Code?

     Mizulina: It is. We believe that people should have professional
lawyers.

>From our files:
The population is so impoverished that free legal aid for defendants
must be provided by the courts in half of cases in Moscow, and 80% in
the regions...

     Question: Russians are so poor that public defense provided by
human rights groups is frequently the only kind of defense they can
hope to get. And from the point of view of results, this kind of
defense is usually very effective.

     Mizulina: We insist that legal representation is mandatory at all
stages. It makes public defense unnecessary.

     Question: Despite all innovations, your draft Criminal Code
deviates from defending human rights every now and then. For example,
it doesn't stipulate a parallel investigation by lawyers, on which
human rights activists insist...

     Mizulina: Yes, we decided to abandon the idea as very expensive.
Few will be able to afford it.

HENRY REZNIK, CHAIRMAN OF THE PRESIDIUM OF THE MOSCOW BAR: WE SHOULD NOT ALLOW INVESTIGATORS TO REFUSE TO QUESTION DEFENSE WITNESSES, AND TO REFUSE TO ACCEPT THE EVIDENCE COMPILED BY THE DEFENSE. THAT WOULD AUTOMATICALLY SOLVE A LOT OF PROBLEMS. AS FOR THE DEFENSE, I THINK IT SHOULD BE REPRESENTED ONLY BY PROFESSIONAL LAWYERS...

     Question: Who is your major opponent on the matter of the draft
Criminal Code?

     Mizulina: The Prosecutor General's Office.

     Question: And your major ally?

     Mizulina: The president, I hope.
What will happen now?

     First and foremost, the presidential side is not unanimous on
this issue. It includes hardliners longing for totalitarianism,
advocates of a return to the much-feared NKVD, and liberals. Deputy
Director of the Presidential Administration Dmitry Kozak is head of
the commission on improving the legislation pertaining to courts.
Kozak, a brilliant lawyer, advocates the most progressive ideas.

     The last parliamentary hearing is scheduled for April 23. The
last week of April will be spent on finalizing all proposals and
amendments. On May 24 the Criminal Code will be debated by the Duma in
the second reading, and in June it will face the third reading.

*******

#16
Newsday
April 17, 2001
The Siberia Effect
When snows there are early, deep and persistent, winters here are more severe
by Robert Cooke
Staff Writer

IN THE LONG, complex effort to understand why some winters are harsher than
others, scientists now see evidence that the autumn snows in Siberia may
actually be in control.

In other words, the severity of the winter that engulfs people in New England
and northern Europe seems to be governed by the snowfall on the vast
territory known as Siberia. If Siberia's snows are early, deep and
persistent, expect an extra-cold winter here.

The new suspicion among weather experts is that the weather in Siberia
directly influences a huge atmospheric pressure system known as the Siberian
high. This high-pressure zone hovering over the vast reaches of Siberia
appears to push and pull the flow of weather systems across much of the
Northern Hemisphere. And when the Siberian high is strong and persistent,
more cold air is driven into the northeastern United States and into the
northern areas of Europe.

Bundle up.

This observation, which is still being researched and refined, comes from
Judah Cohen and his coworkers at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, a
firm in Lexington, Mass., and at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in
Cambridge. Their scientific report appeared recently in the journal
Geophysical Research Letters.

"Think of Siberia as the refrigerator for much of the Northern Hemisphere,"
Cohen told the British magazine New Scientist. Last fall, for example, the
amount of snow in Siberia was abundant, a possible explanation for the colder
weather experienced here in the Northeast this winter.

"A lot more work is needed" before the connection between Siberian snow and
winter here is really considered a fact, Cohen said in an interview. But "I
think the snow cover [in Siberia] can be used to predict" the oncoming
winter.

"It works best when there is no strong forcing going on" from other
phenomena, such as the notorious El Niño events. In fact, Cohen added, the
Siberian snow may be a more accurate predictor of winter than El Niños, which
don't seem to have much impact in northeastern America and northern Europe.

The Siberian-based mechanism that researchers suspect governs the
year-to-year differences in winters stems from the cooling effect of snow on
the ground. As large expanses of Siberia remain covered with snow, more
sunlight gets reflected back into space, the ground remains cool, leaving the
overlying air cool and dense. Alternatively, if the ground is bare, it
absorbs more of the heat and warms the overlying air. In physical terms, the
colder the air gets, the denser it gets, while warmed air expands and wants
to rise, reducing pressure at ground level.

As a result of thick snow, the heavy mass of air of the Siberian high becomes
stronger than usual and spreads out to cover a bigger area. This strengthened
high-pressure zone then acts as an atmospheric barrier that steers storm
systems in different directions.

According to the findings of Cohen's team, mountain ranges such as the
Himalayas between India and Tibet and others in Russia tend to keep the flow
of cold air from going east and south. So in response, the atmospheric
currents that drive storms around the globe get diverted near Siberia.

One result is that the formation of a strong Siberian high tends to steer
winter storms west into Europe, and also up across the North Pole and then
down into the eastern United States. Of course, the chilly air, and loads of
moisture that come with it, bring winter's white.

This seeming connection between autumn snowfall in Siberia and the winter
weather half a world away came from analysis of winters between 1972 and
1999, Cohen explained. The correlations found seem strong enough to explain
about one-third of the variation seen in temperatures in the affected
regions.

The new conclusions arose because Cohen, while doing advanced work at MIT,
was using a highly sophisticated computer model of the Earth's climate and
the weather that occurs in the global atmosphere. "We were looking to see if
maybe the snow cover in North America can influence climate," he recalled.

"So we changed the snow cover and saw how the climate was changed" in
response in the computerized model. What they saw was not much.

"We were looking at the Pacific-North American pattern" of annual weather, he
said, "but we didn't find much of an effect." What they did see, however,
were changes in a phenomenon called the North Atlantic Oscillation, which
consists of a well-established low-pressure zone near Iceland and a higher
pressure zone in the subtropical Atlantic, near the Azores. This system tends
to oscillate in terms of its strength from north to south.

Meteorologists have known that when the cold, dense northern end of the
oscillation is stronger than usual, the winter storms that migrate up the
U.S.

East Coast have to go farther north to get around it, leaving New York and
the New England states with a relatively mild winter. But when the Icelandic
low is weak, the storms are allowed to follow a more southerly course,
marching across the northeast United States, bringing extra cold, snow and
the famed nor'easter storms to New England and New York. This winter was a
good example of that phenomenon, Cohen said.

In their computer model at MIT, Cohen and his colleagues could see this
effect, so they went back to the real data -the records of what actually
happened in past winters-to see if it matched what the computer found. "We
looked at North American snow cover, then the whole Northern Hemisphere, and
finally the snow in Eurasia," Cohen said.

"We thought North America would be the big influence" on the North Atlantic
Oscillation, he said, "because it is upstream from the North Atlantic" in
terms of climate and weather patterns. "But it turned out, when we looked at
them separately, we couldn't find any strong signal between North American
snow cover and the oscillation" in the North Atlantic.

Surprisingly, however, "there was a very strong signal coming out of the
Eurasian system." The conclusion, Cohen said, was that "the signal is
strongest from the Eurasian snow cover, and it influences the weather here in
winter.

When the snow is early and deep" in Siberia, "it means cold weather here."
This past winter, he added, seems to be an example of how that works. There
was no El Niño effect while the snows came early and stayed on the ground in
Siberia. The seeming impact here, and in northern Europe, was a colder,
snowier winter than usual.

In the past few decades, weather and climate experts have focused intensively
on the impact of the now-notorious El Niño system, because of its obvious
disruption of many global climate patterns. An El Niño event occurs about
every six or seven years, beginning with an unusual warming of the Pacific
Ocean surface in a zone extending from the coast of South America toward
Indonesia. As the sea surface warms, the near-constant tradewinds along the
equator diminish, and the normal upwelling of deep, cold water offshore from
Peru and Chile fails, decimating the rich sea life there.

An El Niño event-named for the Christ child because it usually strikes around
Christmas-also brings severe flooding to some areas in South America and
causes droughts in regions such as northern Australia. And fewer hurricanes
slam into the southeastern United States.

An opposite effect-La Niña-alternates with El Niño but tends to be less
disruptive of global climate and varies considerably in strength from
occasion to occasion.

Clearly, Cohen's new idea is something of a departure from the ideas that
weather scientists have been pursuing for decades. A few weather experts
trying to understand North American winters have focused on phenomena such as
sea-surface temperature in the North Pacific Ocean. Scientists such as the
late Jerome Namias felt there was a relatively consistent connection between
the huge expanse of seawater, its temperature and what happens downstream as
air masses migrate soggily over North America.

But recently scientists watching the weather have focused more intently on
climate changes linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. This system can
expand and contract, and the differing pressure zones can shift, or
oscillate, north or south, somewhat. A change in its strength from north to
south, or vice versa, tends to alter the paths that winter storms follow
across the northeastern part of America and Canada, and into northern Europe.

The validity of Cohen's thinking about Siberian snow and its impact on
winters here still needs to be determined.

Jim Hurrell, an atmospheric dynamics specialist at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research, in Boulder, Colo., agrees the snow cover does have an
effect, even if just locally in Siberia itself.

"Judah has done some work that suggests snow cover can modulate or affect the
planetary wave structure, the waviness in the atmosphere that controls things
like storm tracks." Hurrell said. "There could be some influence, but just
how strong an influence that is, I don't think has been established." The
North Atlantic Oscillation's role in climate, he added, "has gained a lot of
attention in the past few years. Indeed, we're very much trying to understand
what it is that controls most of the variability of things like the
oscillation. And Siberia's snows could be one factor." One problem, Hurrell
added, is that "from one winter to the next, most of the variability in the
oscillation is due to processes within the atmosphere itself, the weather
processes. So the oscillation tends to be unpredictable...And these processes
are chaotic in nature."
 
*******

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