March 22, 2001 

This Date's Issues:   5163 • 5164  • 5165

Johnson's Russia List
#5165
22 March 2001
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Segodnya: Georgy Osipov, WILL PUTIN BECOME AN ECONOMIC LIBERAL?
The Cabinet comes up with a long-term development program. It seems that Putin favors Herman Gref's policies after all.
2. Interfax: Source on issues Putin might broach in 3rd April state-of-nation speech.
3. Itar-Tass: Government economic strategy document focuses on investment.
4. Itar-Tass: Wide-ranging price rises built in to Russia's planned economic strategy.
5. Los Angeles Times: John Daniszewski, Like Soviets Who Launched It, Mir's Time Has Come and Gone. Russia: A wave of nostalgia builds as the space station, born in another era, faces its demise tonight.
6. The Wall Street Journal Europe: Igor Malashenko, A Russia the World Can Live With.
7. Novye Izvestia: Igor Vandenko, RESHUFFLING THE DUMA. The Kremlin plans to reorganize the Duma by the end of the spring session.
8. Washington Times: David Sands, Chechen official praises U.S. talks.
9. AP: Missile Crisis Intelligence Ripped. (Cuba)
10. Itar-Tass; Prominent Russian parliamentarian says US expulsion a move to divert opinion. (Rogozin) 
11. Reuters: CHRONOLOGY-Ten years of post-Cold War espionage.
12. AP: Crisis for Russian Crab Industry.
13. Bloomberg: Putin Downplays Tensions in US-Russian Relations, Paper Says.]
 
*******

#1
Segodnya
March 22, 2001
WILL PUTIN BECOME AN ECONOMIC LIBERAL?
The Cabinet comes up with a long-term development program
It seems that Putin favors Herman Gref's policies after all
Author: Georgy Osipov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
TODAY THE CABINET WILL CONSIDER A PROGRAM OF MAJOR DIRECTIONS FOR THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA TO 2010. THE PRESIDENT'S ADDRESS TO THE FEDERAL ASSEMBLY WILL BE BASED ON THIS MATERIAL. THE NATION IS PROBABLY ABOUT TO GET A LIBERAL ECONOMY WITH A STRONG SOCIAL POLICY.

     Today the Cabinet will consider a program of major directions for
the socio-economic development of Russia to 2010. The program is
presented by Economic Development Minister Herman Gref. The draft
decision is to endorse the program, but give its authors two weeks to
shorten it from almost 260 pages to 60. It is these 60 pages that will
be delivered to the president's desk. According to our sources, the
presidential address to the Federal Assembly will be based on this
material.
     Gref's team of liberal reform supporters has been debating the
issues with their opponents for almost a year. Those opponents have
even drafted their own alternative program, led by Viktor Ishayev,
Khabarovsk Governor and State Council member. The debate appears to be
approaching its end. Putin seems to favor Gref's program. Today's
Cabinet meeting is discussing the draft in which Gref's team took into
account only "rhetorical proposals" from the State Council and the
Russian Academy of Sciences. This concerns high-flown passages about
"Russia's transformation into a dynamically developing economic
power", "impossibility of reducing living standards any further", and
so on. Meanwhile, the proposals aiming at increasing the role of the
state in business have been omitted.
     The document on the agenda preserves ideology behind last year's
program. It merely includes some new parts, including a regional
section (formulated on the basis of proposals from regions), and
sections on investment policy, state control over natural monopolies,
socioeconomic aspects of military security, and environmental
protection. The 60-page summary will leave out descriptions of
specific mechanisms of achieving the declared objectives. "These will
be specified in the medium-term program the Cabinet will discuss on
April 19," a source in the Cabinet explained.
     The nation is probably about to get a liberal economy with a
strong social policy. This means liberalization of the rules of the
game for Russians who can make money and want to do so; and assistance
to those who need it. As Gref put it, this will entail a transition
from a "paternalistic" state to a "subsidiary" role for the state.
     For the time being, however, the architects of the strategy
themselves cannot say where the line between the paternalistic and the
subsidiary will be drawn; which benefits, or whose benefits, will be
abolished. All this will be specified in the medium-term program, or
rather in the laws and resolutions drafted in line with it. The
situation is more clear with giving businesses more latitude -
appropriate bills are being submitted to the Duma, and work aimed at
reducing the tax burden continues. It is also clear that if the
liberals win this time, their next move will be reorganizing the
courts system, and perhaps an administrative reform.

******

#2
Russia: Source on issues Putin might broach in 3rd April state-of-nation
speech
Interfax

Moscow, 21 March: A planned message to parliament by President Vladimir Putin
may be published on April 3, a Kremlin source said on Wednesday [21 March].

This source told Interfax he believed "social and economic problems" would
dominate the president's message, but that much of it would deal with
Russia's system of governance.

On the latter subject, Putin is likely to propose a policy "to avoid serious
constitutional changes, making greater and better use of the negotiation
mechanism" in relations between the central authorities and regional
administrations, according to the source.

The president, he said, might have in mind a plan for "a certain enlargement"
of constituent Russian territories and a reduction in their number. But this
would be a "very cautious" process that "would not, of course, lead to the
creation of seven self-sufficient districts instead of the present-day
constituent territories of the [Russian] Federation".

In comments on relations between regional administrations and presidential
commissioners for the federal districts, the source said: "Nobody is making
any claims for the creation of smaller governments in the districts."

******

#3
Russia: Government economic strategy document focuses on investment
ITAR-TASS

Moscow, 22 March, ITAR-TASS corespondent Ivan Ivanov: Widespread
modernization of the economy requires a favourable investment and
entrepreneurial climate, a predictable macroeconomic policy stimulating
growth and structural reorganization of the economy, says the strategy for
state development up to 2010, which is being discussed at today's sitting of
the Russian government.

The government information department has said that the authors of the
strategy document believe that at present the opportunity exists to modernize
the economy with minimal social losses. At the moment there is industrial
growth, an increase in investment, an increase in tax revenue, a reduction in
the budget deficit, low inflation, rising gold and currency reserves and the
purchasing power of the rouble is increasing.

The authors of the strategy are also sure that "only rapid development of the
national capital, creation of a favourable business climate and ensuring
economic freedom will turn Russia into a country attractive to investors".

It is said that the economy is to be modernized in several important phases.
In the first phase, 2001-03, implementation of an economic policy based on
new principles should start. To regulate the economy, guaranteed property
rights and equal conditions for competition have to become basic features of
economic policy. At this stage it will be important to concentrate state
investment on renewing the entire spectrum of the industrial and financial
infrastructure. State financial policy has to be targeted at ensuring
financial stability and reducing the burden of debt in the economy. The main
factor in economic growth at this stage will be the development of "a new
sector" on the basis of freeing up entrepreneurial initiative. Monetary and
credit policy is to concentrate on further reduction in inflation, which
should form the foundation for increasing public confidence in economic
policy, reducing macroeconomic risk and broadening the resource base for
investment.

The next phase, 2004-10, should be a time of widespread structural
reorganization of the economy, which will provide an incentive for a whole
range of socio-economic factors: building up new investment, increasing
foreign competition and setting up more efficient machinery for the movement
of capital and labour, which should result in greater productivity. This
period will be associated with increased purchasing power for the national
currency and a greater role for interest rates in the process of shaping
financial movements. The involvement of the state in redistribution of the
gross domestic product will decrease proportionately as the economy grows,
producing a high level of investment, including an influx of foreign
investment.

*******

#4
Wide-ranging price rises built in to Russia's planned economic strategy
ITAR-TASS

Moscow, 22 March: Consumer prices will grow by about 80 per cent in Russia by
2005 as against the 1999 level and will grow by 140 per cent by the year
2010. This forecast has been taken as a basis during the working out of a
national development strategy for the period up to 2010, which is being
discussed by the Russian government at its meeting on Thursday [22 March].

The average growth rate of electricity and gas tariffs will exceed the growth
rate of consumer prices, a spokesman for the government information
department told journalists, briefing them on the current government meeting.
Cross subsidizing in the power sector will be stopped by 2004-2005. Tariffs
for industrial consumers will be made equal to those for the population. This
means that tariffs for the population will grow more rapidly than tariffs for
industrial consumers. It is quite probable that for some objective reasons a
more rapid transformation of the structure of domestic prices and a more
dramatic growth of the prices of primary energy resources will be needed. In
this case the inflation, under which the national development strategy for
the period up to 2010 will be put into effect, will be even higher, the
authors of the strategy believe.

******

#5
Los Angeles Times
March 22, 2001
Like Soviets Who Launched It, Mir's Time Has Come and Gone
Russia: A wave of nostalgia builds as the space station, born in another
era, faces its demise tonight.
By JOHN DANISZEWSKI, Times Staff Writer

    MOSCOW--"The ship, a fragment detached from the Earth, went on lonely and
swift like a small planet."
    --Joseph Conrad

    For 15 years, it has circled the world, silently keeping aloft the dream
that humans will one day colonize the cosmos. Now, as the Mir space station
drifts toward its demise tonight--a plummet in a blazing cascade over the
southern Pacific Ocean--those who have built and flown the hulking marvel are
mourning the passage of one of history's valiant ships.
    Launched by a country that no longer exists--the Soviet Union--Mir ends
its life as the pride of Russia. As recently as this week, some lawmakers
here were still pleading that it be saved.
     Nevertheless, space officials here are adamant that it must die.
     "My heart hurts when I think about sinking the station, the fruit of our
years of effort, but reason and the numbers convince me that the orbiter
should crash," said Anatoly Nedaivoda, head of the office that designed the
spacecraft.
     Mir was orbiting 132 miles above Earth on Wednesday, the starting point
for its descent, said mission control spokesman Valery Lyndin. Controllers
were working to bring the craft into a stable position and allow its solar
panels to soak up energy for the final maneuvers.
     An unmanned cargo ship docked at the abandoned station is to fire its
engines twice during consecutive orbits early Friday to lower the station
farther. Several hours later, a final ignition of the cargo ship's engines
will deliver the coup de grace and the station will sink into the Earth's
atmosphere.
     The station, at 135 tons, is easily the heaviest spacecraft to be
brought down from orbit, and controllers say they will have no communications
with it or control over its path once it breaks up in the atmosphere.
     Most of the station will burn, but hundreds of pieces--some weighing as
much as 1,500 pounds--are expected to fall into the South Pacific between
Australia and Chile today about 10:30 p.m. PST. The total weight of the
debris could be 27 tons, raining down over an elliptical swath of ocean 3,728
miles long and 124 miles wide.
     When it arrives at the outer reaches of the atmosphere, Mir will be
traveling at more than 1,500 mph. Just before impact, the parts that have not
been vaporized will have slowed to between 100 and 150 mph.

     Analysts Debate Real Legacy of the Craft
     In the spacecraft's waning days, its creators have been happier to dwell
on its achievements than to contemplate its end.
     "Mir has taught man how to survive in space for more than a year and how
a human being changes while in space. Mir helped us conduct new experiments
in microbiology. Mir helped us advance new know-how," said Sergei A.
Gorbunov, spokesman for the Russian Space Agency. "There is no doubt that
mankind should be grateful."
     But U.S. analyst John Pike has a different perspective. He says Mir was
never about science.
     "I think that its singular contribution was as a bridge from Cold War
competition to post-Cold-War cooperation," he said.
     "Years ago, the Soviet Union put up Mir and the Reagan administration
decided to build space station Freedom. When the Clinton administration
decided to engage Russia in 1993, about the first visible thing they did to
signal they had a new policy . . . was to agree to cooperate on [a] space
station."
     At that time, the countries began joint programs aboard Mir. And last
year, they together built and occupied the first modules of its successor,
the International Space Station, or ISS, unofficially called Alpha.
     Earlier this month, Alpha got its first Russian commander, Yuri Usachev,
overseeing a crew of two Americans, something unimaginable when Mir was
built. Russian and U.S. space officials say they hope Alpha will last even
longer than Mir and mark the start of continuous space habitation.
     Sergei V. Avdeyev, the cosmonaut and Hero of Russia who aboard Mir
logged the longest time in space of any human--748 days--said he agreed with
the tough decision to bring Mir down. Its life might have been extended for
one or two years, he said, but what would be the point? "Future missions
would only become more and more difficult."
     Said cosmonaut Musa Manarov, among the first two Russians to endure a
mission of longer than a year: "I see no reason why we should weep. Why
should we care more about a piece of metal than people?"
     But when it falls, Manarov said, "we may well recall the old times, and
even have a drink or two."
     For many Russians, the end of Mir in effect signals the end of an era
when they could claim preeminence in space exploration.
     The Soviet Union sent up the first Sputnik satellite in 1957 and put the
first man, Yuri Gagarin, into orbit in 1961. For Russians, Mir was one of its
last symbols of superpower status.
     But the high cost of its operation--$200 million a year--combined with
diminishing scientific and political returns have spelled its doom.
     "The question is whether Russia is capable of servicing two space
programs simultaneously," said Leonid A. Gorshkov, an official of the
Energiya Corp. space enterprise, which designed Mir. "It is simply impossible
to keep sending cosmonauts and spaceships to both."
     As Manarov noted: "It is impossible to create something new if you keep
clinging to the old."
     That feeling is not universally shared here. Asserting that Russia must
not concede outer space to the United States, Russian parliamentary speaker
Gennady N. Seleznyov tried unsuccessfully this month to persuade President
Vladimir V. Putin to save Mir and order up a new station, Mir-2.

     Russia Could Again Go It Alone in Space
     James Oberg, a U.S. specialist on the Russian space program, said it is
"delusional euphoria" to think that Mir's demise marks the end of big,
one-country space endeavors. He said it is conceivable that Russia might one
day decide to start up its own space station program again, by building a
new, smaller platform or even by taking back the components it has
contributed to the ISS.
     He warned that one should resist "nostalgia based on fantasy" when
discussing Mir. He called the space station really "an expensive toy that
took 10 years to figure out what to do with."
     What the Russians finally figured out, he said, was to use the program
to get them into international commercial space activities. Russia took in
$800 million last year on commercial satellite launches and sales of
space-related hardware, he noted.
     For Pike, director of Globalsecurity.org, a Washington-area policy
group, the geopolitical aspect of Mir's demise is the most important factor.
     "Piloted spaceflight is about politics. It always has been and for the
foreseeable future will continue to be," he said. That Putin agreed to dump
Mir and focus on the ISS is "wonderful news--in the sense that if you were to
add up the pluses and minuses right now, space cooperation is about the only
front in which Russia's relations with America are generally positive."
     Mir's core was launched into orbit in February 1986, and, like a child's
Erector set, it morphed into different shapes as time went on.
     For most of its history, it operated flawlessly--circling the Earth with
dogged reliability, like a Russian-made car that might break down but always
can be repaired. (Mir would have racked up more than 2 billion miles on its
odometer if it had one.) Forty-six spaceflights were made to it; the station
became temporary home to 104 cosmonauts, astronauts and assorted visitors
during a total of 86,220 manned orbits.
     Its worst day was June 25, 1997. During a manual docking test of an
unmanned Progress supply ship, Mir collided with a remote sensing module,
causing a temporary loss of air pressure. Commander Vasily Tsibliyev, Flight
Engineer Alexander Lazutkin, and U.S. astronaut Michael Foale quickly secured
the module and began fixing the damage.
     Although Russia has dismissed the chances of anyone being hurt by the
Mir's fall, the government took the precaution of acquiring a $200-million
insurance policy against all contingencies.
     Russia has the most experience in this. Since 1978, it has ditched 80
Progress spacecraft and five Salyut space stations in the same area where Mir
will fall, with no reported detrimental results.
    
     Reentry Schedule
     Russia mission control began sending computer commands to Mir on
Wednesday that will prepare the station for its return to Earth. Controllers
today will fire engines twice during two consecutive orbits, and then again
to send the station plunging. Estimated PST times for the maneuvers and
impact:
     4:33 p.m.: First burn, lasting 20 minutes
     6:02 p.m.: Second burn, lasting 20 minutes
     9:30 p.m.: Third burn, lasting 23 minutes
     10:30 p.m.: Impact

     Track Mir on the Web:
     * www.space.com.
     * liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/temp/mir_loc.html

*******

#6
The Wall Street Journal Europe
March 22, 2001   
A Russia the World Can Live With
By Igor Malashenko.
Mr. Malashenko is deputy chairman of Media-Most, which owns the only major
independent television station in Russia. He is the prime partner of the
company's founder, Vladimir Gusinsky, whom Russia is seeking to extradite
from Spain on fraud charges.

MOSCOW -- After 10 years of turmoil, Russia remains poorly reformed
domestically and semi-isolated internationally. So far, well-intentioned
attempts to encourage Russian reforms have backfired. Obviously, a new
strategy is needed. To understand the size of the Russian challenge facing
the West, one must attempt to enter the mind of the Russian political elite
and that of its leader, Vladimir Putin.

Mr. Putin has vividly described the frustration and humiliation he felt when
he watched crowds of Germans on both sides demolishing the Berlin Wall with
sledgehammers. Mr. Putin was then a KGB officer stationed in East Germany.
The Russian president, like many other members of the Russian elite, has
never agreed that the demise of the Soviet empire was caused by its own
internal failings and "imperial overstretch."

Perhaps the idea that a Marxist state would be toppled by its own "internal
contradictions" is too much for the former-KGB leadership. Instead, Mr.
Putin's cohort believes that the Soviet Union's downfall was masterminded in
Washington D.C. and implemented by a "fifth column" in the USSR itself.

Wide-Ranging Exchanges

I have heard this incredible scenario from many leading Russians and they
take it quite seriously. Indeed I have been called a member of this "fifth
column." This charge is false, because I do not operate in a clandestine way
-- I seek wide-ranging exchanges between Russia and the West quite openly.

Mr. Putin and his team are not ready to restart a no-win competition with the
United States and Western Europe. They are painfully aware of Russia's
limited resources and capabilities. They know that a new military buildup is
no longer an option. But they would hardly miss a chance to inflict damage on
the United States and its allies at relatively low cost. In the eyes of the
Kremlin, support of rogue regimes -- from Iraq to Cuba -- might be a
cost-effective weapon. To make things worse, Russian leaders do not have any
coherent concept of Russia's national interest and may become rather reckless
in seeking revenge.

Mr. Putin's Russia is not an expansionist power, as the Soviet Union was. But
a combination of nostalgia and vengefulness may cause Russian leaders to
attempt to re-establish, at least partly, Russia's domination over its
neighbors. And some of them are quite vulnerable, both because of their
dependency upon Russia's energy resources and their own internal problems.

As long as Russia continues to decline domestically, it will foment trouble
around the world. Well-aimed U.S. policies can make a difference on both
tracks. Russia's attempts to support rogue regimes or bully its neighbors
should be contained by much the same means as were used to contain the old
Soviet Union. But the goal, of course, will be quite different. A long-term
strategy to integrate Russia into the European Union, and perhaps NATO, will
not only enhance the stability of the international system, but will also
help to steer Russia out of a domestic dead end, where it is now headed.

The West, of course, should strongly discourage Russia from taking any steps
toward political authoritarianism, economic mismanagement and international
troublemaking -- in other words, for any steps that distance Russia from the
West even further. American and European leaders should insist that Russia
pay its debts in full. If they don't expect to be bailed out, Russian leaders
will make sure that the economy will grow and generate more revenues. That
means the West ought to endorse policies that promote economic growth,
because those will enable the Paris Club debts to be paid back more easily.

NATO and EU leaders should equally discourage Russia from wasting hard-earned
tax dollars on military programs or on support for international outcasts. If
Russia continues on its current slide toward authoritarianism or increases
its support for the globe's many troublemakers, then the West can for example
respond by not inviting Mr. Putin to important international meetings of
democratic nations, such as the G7 conferences. These meetings confer real
prestige on Mr. Putin and on Russia; withholding an invitation would truly
sting the Kremlin.

On the other hand, real progress in Russia toward a fuller democracy, a more
market-based economy or more responsible international behavior should be
rewarded with increased Russian participation in Western political and
economic structures. But, always, Western leaders should praise deeds after
they are done, and not just reward mere promises or expectations.

In short, Russia should find itself in an environment where it would actually
seek to join the West. If Russia were to eventually join the European Union,
or become eligible to join it by meeting all of the EU's demanding social and
economic criteria, both Russia and the world would be better off. Policy
makers should also consider the possibility of Russia joining NATO or, at
least, welcoming the alliance's eastward expansion.

Russian popular support for the West has dropped to 25% in surveys, down from
levels of 80% in the initial heady days following the collapse of the Soviet
empire. After 10 years of frustrating reforms, many Russians feel
disillusioned about the U.S. and Western Europe.

Only Alternative

But, again, there is a sizable minority of Russians who realize that
integration with the West is the only long-term alternative. These Russians,
predominantly younger ones, value democratic institutions, a free press, and
a free economy. They already play an active role in Russia's new economy.
With some support and some luck, they may become a critical mass that can
change Russia's future. It is vital for their aspirations that U.S. and EU
foreign-policy goals coincide.

Of course, Russian leaders can make the ruinous decision to confront the West
and thus undermine virtually any hope of Russia's economic and political
recovery. The U.S. and Western Europe should be prepared for such a
contingency. But such a daunting possibility should not thwart Western
attempts to integrate Russia into the Western community.

Nor should the patience needed to make real changes in Russia deter the West
from taking action. The Western policy of "containment" took more than 40
years to bear fruit. Given the magnitude of the new task, it will probably
take just as long to accomplish. But the vastness of the reward -- a
peaceful, prosperous Russia and a more pacific world -- will be worth the
wait.

*******

#7
Novye Izvestia
March 22, 2001,
RESHUFFLING THE DUMA
The Kremlin plans to reorganize the Duma by the end of the spring
session
Author: Igor Vandenko
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
THE KREMLIN HAS HAD ENOUGH OF THE COMMUNISTS, AND AIMS TO REDUCE THEIR INFLUENCE IN THE LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT. THERE ARE PLANS TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF DUMA COMMITTEES FROM 28 TO 16, AND THE COMMUNISTS WILL LOSE CONTROL OF SEVERAL KEY COMMITTEES. HOWEVER, GENNADY SELEZNEV IS LIKELY TO KEEP HIS JOB.

     The Kremlin was offended by the left in the Duma last autumn,
when the Communists and their satellites in the lower house turned
down the 2001 draft budget. Since then, the Kremlin has gone out of
its way to demonstrate its displeasure. The latest saga with the no-
confidence vote was the last straw. Right in the midst of the scandal
before the decisive vote, Gennadi Raikov, leader of the pro-
presidential People's Deputy group, publicly outlined the strategic
objective - revising the structure of the lower house of parliament
before the end of the spring session.
     The goal of the planned reorganization of the Duma is now out in
the open. The ratio of party representation in the Duma's top posts is
to be changed. At present, there are 28 committees in the Duma - and
the left controls 11 of them. Moreover, the left controls at least
five permanent commissions (including the commission on mandates), and
the position of Duma speaker.
     This arrangement dates back to the beginning of this Duma's
operation, in January 2000. Actually, the left owes it to the Kremlin,
to a considerable extent. Amazed by its own stunning success in the
parliamentary election, Unity made a pact with the Communists and
split all leading positions in the Duma between them. It has now been
decided to modify the situation.
     The architects of the upcoming reorganization are working on a
draft resolution which will cut the number of committees from 28 to
16. "Related" committees will be merged. It isn't hard to predict that
the mergers will particularly hurt the left. Presidential
representative Alexander Kotenkov is certain that "the Communist Party
hinders the work of the Duma as such. This is particularly true of the
committees controlled by members of the Communist faction." Kotenkov
adds: "It is time we changed this state of affairs. If the matter is
raised, the majority will agree to revise the package agreement that
gave Duma committees to the Communists."
     One idea is to merge the Duma's two legislative committees, and
take the chair away from Anatoly Lukianov. In the bloc of economic
committees, Sergei Glaziev (economic policy) and Yuri Maslyukov
(industry) will be deprived of their posts as well.
     The position of speaker is a different matter. Gennadi Seleznev
has been openly drifting away from the Communist Party, and striving
to regain the Kremlin's trust. It seems he has succeeded. According to
Raikov, personnel changes will not affect the position of speaker.
Raikov sees Seleznev's current behavior as "absolutely correct". On
the other hand, Seleznev's chances of keeping his position will still
be doubtful if there is a major reshuffle in the lower house of
parliament.

******

#8
Washington Times
March 22, 2001
Chechen official praises U.S. talks
By David R. Sands

     The top official of the breakaway republic of Chechnya yesterday called
the Bush administration's decision to upgrade its contacts with the rebels a
"diplomatic breakthrough" that puts new pressure on Russia. 
     "The current statements we are hearing from this new administration tell
us that there has definitely been a change in attitude and position from the
U.S. government," said Ilyas Akhmadov, minister of foreign affairs for the
self-styled Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, in an interview yesterday.
     News of the proposed meeting provoked an immediate and angry response
from Moscow, which maintains it is battling terrorists and criminal gangs in
Chechnya.
     "Russia views such contacts as absolutely unacceptable," Sergei
Yastrzhembsky, a top aide to President Vladimir Putin, told Reuters. "They
can be understood by Chechen terrorists and separatists as a signal
encouraging them to more action."
     He added: "Such contacts, if they take place, cannot but have a negative
influence on U.S.-Russian ties."
     The United States does not recognize the Chechen entity, which is locked
in a vicious guerrilla struggle with Moscow. The conflict is the second in
the Caucasus Republic in a decade.
     But State Department spokesman Richard Boucher confirmed yesterday that
Mr. Akhmadov would be meeting with John Beryle, acting assistant secretary
for the department's Bureau of Newly Independent States.
     During the Clinton administration, Mr. Akhmadov was only allowed to meet
lower-level State Department desk officers, usually at sites outside the
State Department building. Mr. Akhmadov said yesterday he did not know where
the meeting with Mr. Beryle would be held.
     "We consider this a diplomatic breakthrough, for certain," said Mr.
Akhmadov, speaking through an interpreter. "It gives us more reason to hope
that the Bush administration is going to put relations with Russia on a much
more realistic basis."
     U.S.-Russian relations face a growing list of irritants, aside from the
clash over Chechnya. Among them: differences over a U.S. missile shield;
Russia's human rights and nonproliferation record; and the recent arrest of
FBI agent Robert Philip Hanssen on charges of spying for Moscow.
     Mr. Boucher yesterday attempted to play down the significance of the
meeting with Mr. Akhmadov, noting Clinton administration officials had met
with him on a number of previous occasions, as recently as last October at
the United Nations.
     "We've had meetings before with this gentleman. I don't see anything
unusual or upsetting in it," Mr. Boucher said.
     He said the United States continues to recognize Russian sovereignty
over Chechnya and stands by past statements urging a political solution to
the crisis.
     But Chechnya remains a particularly sensitive issue for Russia.
     Mr. Putin came to power in part because of his decisive handling of the
Chechen situation in 1999. Russian forces largely control the region but have
been unable to subdue determined Chechen guerrilla groups or impose political
or security controls on Chechnya.
     Mr. Akhmadov said yesterday he planned to discuss what he said was a
deepening humanitarian crisis in Chechnya, saying that the latest conflict
has claimed 100,000 lives and driven 400,000 in the republic from their
homes. Because the international community does not recognize the Chechen
state, those displaced inside Chechnya and in neighboring states are not
given the status and protections granted to refugees under international law.
     "It is still very, very hard for our people," he said.
     Separately, New York-based Human Rights Watch yesterday issued a new
report accusing Russian military and security forces of a string of
kidnappings, tortures, and civilian killings in Chechnya â?"charges Moscow
has
strenuously denied.
     "While combat between federal forces and Chechen rebels has for the most
part ceased, the 'disappearance,' torture and summary execution of detainees
continues, marking the transition from a classical internal armed conflict
into a classical 'dirty war,' " the organization charged.

*******

#9
Missile Crisis Intelligence Ripped
March 22, 2001
By DAVID HO
 
WASHINGTON (AP) - A secretive group of advisers to President Kennedy saw the
months leading to the Cuban missile crisis as riddled with failures in
intelligence gathering, contradicting the popular view that the incident was
a definitive success for the United States.

At a meeting on Nov. 9, 1962, less than two weeks after the Soviet Union
agreed to withdraw its ballistic missiles from Cuba, members of the
President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board groused about the lack of
U.S. spy plane activity over the island nation for most of September despite
suspicions by the head of the CIA that Soviet missiles were there.

The insights into the pressurized period are revealed in more than 400 pages
of newly declassified documents now available among the Kennedy assassination
records at National Archives in College Park, Md. The records provide a
glimpse inside a group of civilian experts enlisted to provide the president
independent advice on intelligence matters.

The group also questioned an intelligence-gathering ``paralysis'' that set in
regarding Cuba in the months after the U.S.-backed Bay of Pigs invasion
debacle in April 1961.

``The feeling in responsible parts of government seems to be that things
turned out all right, so why bother the president,'' board member Clark
Clifford is described as saying at another meeting. ``If the president thinks
a good intelligence operation took place, this could have dangerous
implications.''

First formed in 1956, the advisory group's impact has varied among
administrations, but it was particularly influential during the Kennedy
years.

On Oct. 4, 1962, the group discussed the ongoing work of Operation Mongoose,
a once-secret plan to cause disruptions in Cuba, including blowing up power
stations and planting U.S. intelligence infiltrators. Attorney General Robert
Kennedy, tapped by his brother to oversee Mongoose, attended.

``The attorney general informed the group that higher authority was concerned
about the progress on the Mongoose program and felt that more priority should
be given to trying to mount sabotage operations,'' minutes from the meeting
said.

>From other reports, it is understood that ``higher authority'' refers to
President Kennedy, said Anna Nelson, a historian at American University and a
member of the JFK Assassination Records Review Board, which requested release
of the documents.

The records say that there was some discussion of mining Cuban waters with
devices ``appearing to be homemade and laid by small aircraft operated by
Cubans.''

Nelson said that plan didn't become reality.

``Either they never did it or we never knew about it,'' she said.

Kennedy formed his version of the advisory group in May 1961 with an
executive order directing it to review intelligence work, including ``highly
sensitive covert operations relating to political action, propaganda,
economic warfare, sabotage, escape and evasion, subversion against hostile
states.''

The document adds that ``these covert operations are to be conducted in such
manner that, if uncovered, the U.S. government can plausibly disclaim
responsibility for them.''

Among those on the board were Clifford, chairman of the group for most of the
Kennedy years and later Lyndon Johnson's defense secretary for a time;
retired Gen. James ``Jimmy'' Doolittle, who led the first bombing raid on
Tokyo during World War II; and William Baker, head of research at Bell
Laboratories.

Steven Tilley, who runs the National Archives collection of Kennedy
assassination records, said the documents don't specifically deal with the
assassination but fall under a broad definition of related issues, such as
conspiracy allegations and assertions that Cuba was involved.

The records mention the Kennedy assassination only on Nov. 22, 1963, the day
the president was killed. The advisers expressed their sorrow and decided to
hold off on their latest recommendations until after Lyndon Johnson began his
tenure as president.

In a summary of the advisory board's work presented to Johnson, the group
said Kennedy approved 125 of its 170 recommendations, mostly concerning
overhaul of the CIA and the Defense Department's intelligence programs. The
recommendations ranged from launching more satellites to spy on Soviet
missiles to finding a new name for the CIA.

President Bush will have his own version of the advisory board but as yet has
not appointed members, White House spokesman Mary Ellen Countryman said
Wednesday.

On the Net: National Archives JFK Collection:
http://www.nara.gov/research/jfk/index.html

President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/pfiab/index.html

******

#10
Prominent Russian parliamentarian says US expulsion a move to divert opinion
ITAR-TASS

Moscow, 22 March: The US administration is trying to resolve a series of
problems, both domestic and foreign ones, by taking an unfriendly step - to
deport Russian diplomats, [chairman of Russian parliament's lower house
foreign afairs committee] Dmitriy Rogozin believes. He said so in an
interview with TASS today.

The first problem is the campaign for the creation of a national ABM system,
which is meeting with ever-growing resistance in the international arena,
with Russia at the head of that process. In the opinion of Rogozin, "Russia
did not give the USA any objective reason for such a demarche". The thing is
that Washington, displeased with the unexpectedly-independent stand of Moscow
in the international arena, is now acting according to the well-known rule of
Winston Churchill: if the argument is not strong enough, raise your voice.

"The problems the USA is facing in the Balkan Peninsula, where the new
administration is taking in Kosovo and Macedonia the bitter consequences of
the policy, pursued by their predecessors, friction in relations with its
European allies on a number of problems, Russia's first steps for upholding
its national interests and even the first indications of an economic decline
are making Washington nervous and are inducing it to take some noisy step,
that would distract the attention of the American public from the subjects,
which are undesirable for the US administration," Rogozin said.

At the same time, he believes that "even despite the deportation of six
Russian diplomats and rumours about the forthcoming deportation of another 50
Russians, there is nothing resembling a catastrophe in Russian-American
relations. In this situation Moscow should not yield to emotions, but assume
a clear and consistent stand. It should take retaliatory measures in response
to the US step, which should be neither exaggerated, nor insufficient, but
absolutely adequate. By all appearances, this is exactly what Russia is
doing."

******

#11
CHRONOLOGY-Ten years of post-Cold War espionage
 
MOSCOW, March 22 (Reuters) - Moscow weighed its reaction on Thursday to the
U.S. intention to expel around 50 diplomats suspected of being intelligence
officers.

Ten years after the collapse of communism, allegations of spying between
Russia and the West remain common. Russia says it is catching more spies now
than in the darkest days of East-West confrontation.

If the 50 diplomats are expelled it would be be the biggest expulsion of
suspected spies since "Operation Famish" in 1986 when President Ronald Reagan
ordered out 80 Soviet diplomats.

Following are some notable spying incidents in the last decade:

1991-1992 - Norway expels nine Russian diplomats, the Netherlands and Belgium
each expel four and Denmark expels one in a series of spying allegations.

1993 - Australia expels six Russian diplomats. Poland expels another and
Moscow responds by expelling a Polish diplomat.

February 1994 - The United States expels a Russian diplomat in retaliation
for Moscow's alleged payments to a spy at the CIA.

April 1994 - Britain throws out a Russian diplomat in response to Moscow's
expulsion of a man described as the head of Britain's Secret Intelligence
Service in Russia.

January 1996 - Switzerland expels Russian diplomat from Moscow's Geneva U.N.
mission.

1996 - Moscow expels nine British diplomats it says are running a spy ring.
Britain responds by expelling four Russians.

Nov-Dec 1997 - American technician Richard Bliss held for a month on spying
charges. Bliss worked for a U.S. firm using a satellite system to install
mobile telephone equipment in the Russian town of Rostov-on-Don.

March 1998 - Norway expels two Russian diplomats and bars three more from
entering after accusing them of trying to recruit spies. Moscow responds by
expelling two Norwegians. In the same month, a Russian military court jails
former major in the Strategic Rocket Forces for passing secrets to the United
States. Another officer gets three years for spying for Israel.

July 1998 - Russia expels South Korean diplomat Cho Sung-woo. Seoul responds
by expelling a Russian diplomat. South Korean Foreign Minister Park Chung-soo
resigns over the affair.

August 1998 - Russia accuses Israel of harbouring a spy ring at its Moscow
embassy.

Oct 13, 1998 - Retired U.S. army intelligence analyst David Sheldon Boone
arrested at a Washington hotel and charged with selling secrets to Moscow
after an FBI sting.

July 1999 - Russia expels U.S. diplomat amid hints of spying. Newspaper
reports U.S. ambassador asked Russians to quietly cut back their spying
efforts in the United States. Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin says he
discussed spying allegations at a meeting with U.S. Vice President Al Gore.

Nov 18, 1999 - Russia's FSB domestic security service charges Igor Sutyagin,
nuclear specialist at Moscow's USA and Canada Institute, with high treason,
which covers spying.

Nov 29, 1999 - U.S. military officials say they have charged U.S. Navy code
breaker Daniel King with selling data to Moscow.

Nov 30, 1999 - Russian security says second secretary in political section of
the U.S. embassy was caught spying.

Dec 8, 1999 - U.S. orders expulsion of Russian diplomat, saying he was
monitoring listening device at the State Department.

Jan 20, 2000 - Poland expels nine Russian diplomats for alleged spying.
Moscow orders out nine Polish diplomats.

March 15, 2000 - The FSB says it detained a Russian on charges of spying for
Britain with Estonian help.

June 14, 2000 - U.S. arrests retired Army Colonel George Trofimoff, highest
ranking military officer charged with spying.

June 26, 2000 - The FSB says it detained Russian of Lithuanian citizenship on
charges he spied for United States.

Dec 6, 2000 - Moscow court sentences retired U.S. navy intelligence officer
Edmond Pope to 20 years for spying. Pope is later pardoned by President
Vladimir Putin.

Feb 18, 2001 - FBI agent Robert Hanssen is arrested on charges of selling
secrets to Moscow over the last 15 years of his 25-year FBI career.

March 17 - Bulgaria asks Russia to withdraw three diplomats suspected of
spying. Russia hits back telling three Bulgarians to leave Moscow. Visiting
head of U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation Louis Freeh praises Bulgaria for
the move.

March 21 - A U.S. official says the United States is expelling about 50
Russian diplomats suspected of being intelligence officers, partly in
retaliation for the Hanssen case.

*******

#12
Crisis for Russian Crab Industry
March 22, 2001
By ANATOLY MEDETSKY
 
VLADIVOSTOK, Russia (AP) - As the snow melts each year in this Pacific port,
sailors are hard at work in the open seas, taking advantage of the precious
final days of the king crab-catching season. But this spring they've stayed
home, their small crab boats crammed into Vladivostok's Golden Horn Bay.

New policies governing Russia's rich fishing grounds all but canceled the
first crab season this year, leaving the world's biggest supply of the
delicacy largely unharvested. The lost time has left crab catchers predicting
huge losses and local officials sounding the alarm over a looming shortfall
in tax revenues.

Regulations that became effective this year require quotas for crabs and
other fish meant for export to be awarded to the highest bidder at open
auctions. Previously, the quotas - licenses to catch a certain amount of a
given species - were handed out for free or for a flat fee, but the sector
was allegedly ruled by favoritism and bribes.

Economic Development and Trade Minister Gherman Gref told reporters recently
that it was an ``illusion'' that no fees were paid earlier.

``This payment was always collected,'' he said, according to Russian media.
``But it wasn't collected according to transparent rules ... and it certainly
did not go into transparent pockets - needless to say, not into the state
budget.''

However, the transition to the new system brought the industry to a halt this
year, as companies spent the winter waiting for officials to organize the
auctions. The first of two annual crab seasons began Jan. 1 and ends April
21, but the first auction for crab quotas was held only March 20.

In the coastal region of Primorye alone, 90 crab boats float idly in the
harbors, losing a total of about $35 million a month, according to the
region's fisheries committee. The monthly loss to the regional budget is $7
million, which the ships could have paid in taxes.

``I've told the local tax inspectorate not to expect from us the revenues
that we've traditionally contributed in the second quarter,'' says Alexander
Perednya, chairman of the Vostok-1 fishing company in Vladivostok, about
4,000 miles east of Moscow.

The revenue loss could be particularly damaging to a region still suffering
from a severe energy crisis, which left tens of thousands of residents
without heat at the height of winter this year.

``There will probably not be enough money for utilities and housing, and
there may be a collapse again,'' says Nadezhda Smirnova, an economic analyst
in the Vladivostok city administration.

Most of the boats moored in Golden Horn Bay have used the unwelcome delay for
repairs. On a recent day, sailors on the Rublyovo, a 165-foot crab boat, were
replacing the boat's timeworn metal hull, while the ship's engineer was bent
over a disassembled gyrocompass.

Meanwhile, poachers, who never bothered with licenses and quotas in the first
place, continued to ply the seas. According to Gref's ministry, the illicit
catch ranges from $2.5 billion to $5 billion worth of seafood a year.

When it comes to crabs, the delay in handing out quotas has only exacerbated
poaching, says Pavel Tarasenko, commander of the Pacific division of the
Russian border guards. In recent weeks, coast guards have engaged in
high-speed chases after suspected poachers.

In February, a fishing vessel took refuge at the Japanese port of Wakkanai
after a 12-hour chase by Russian coast guards. That boat had delivered 27.5
tons of crab this year before any licenses were handed out, Tarasenko said.
Border guards sank another boat suspecting of poaching.

According to federal authorities, 20 to 40 Russian boats unload crabs every
day in Wakkanai.

But try as they might, the poachers cannot meet demand with the heavyweight
companies out of the game. As last year's stock runs low in Japan, the
biggest export market for Russian crab, the price could soar.

Despite the criticism, the government insists the auctions are essential to
stem corruption. According to one fishing expert, local officials often ask
fishing companies to contribute to public projects, such as the construction
of a school, in exchange for quotas.

A further benefit of the auctions, officials say, is the $1.6 million they
are expected to fetch for the national budget at a time when Russia is trying
to pay off its foreign debts.

The 187 crab quotas sold at auction in Moscow on March 20 were sold for $15
million, or 1.7 times the starting price, the Interfax news agency said.

But fishermen argue the reform comes at the wrong time after years of
industry decline. They say the money they will have to spend on quotas now
could be better spent replacing many of the boats in their aging fleets.

Perednya of the Vostok-1 company says the changes will set off a chain
reaction that will cripple the industry for the foreseeable future. The new
costs will be passed on to buyers, and that will threaten the market, he
argues.

``Demand will be lost and the volume of sales will drop,'' he said. ``I will
have to mothball the fleet and cut people's wages.''

******

#13
Putin Downplays Tensions in US-Russian Relations, Paper Says
 
Moscow, March 22 (Bloomberg)
-- Russian President Vladimir Putin downplayed the significance of
recent tensions with the U.S. in an interview with Russian journalists
published in the daily Izvestiya.

``I don't think anything should be dramatized,'' Putin said when asked about
U.S. President George W. Bush's policy's toward Russia. ``In every country,
every time when there is a new administration, and the U.S. is not an
exemption, there is a rethink of policy of the previous bosses of the White
House.''

Bush has said the U.S. should be more cautious about Russia and that he
supports a missile defense system, which Russia opposes. Putin says he
opposes a ``unipolar'' world dominated by the U.S. and has boosted ties with
Asian and European countries.

The U.S. plans to expel 50 Russian diplomats on suspicion of spying, after
Federal Bureau of Investigation counterintelligence agent Robert Philip
Hanssen was arrested on suspicion of passing secrets to Moscow, CBS News and
the New York Times reported. Russia will take ``adequate steps'' to respond
to such a move, the Interfax news agency said today.

Earlier this week, Moscow said U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was
using language reminiscent of the Cold War by accusing Russia of assisting
countries such as Iran, North Korea and India with missile technology.

``Russia will conduct a foreign policy without any large- state chauvinism,''
Putin told the newspapers. ``We are determined on having relations with other
states that are based on equality. One of the main partners for us, of
course, is the United States.''

Putin said Russia believes the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty should bar
the missile defense system backed by Bush.

``We believe, and will continue to believe, that this treaty and its founding
principles are the base of modern international security,'' he said. ``We
will insist on that, but we are counting on a positive dialogue with American
partners.''

Putin said he concurs with recent statements by Bush that Russia is neither
an enemy nor an opponent of the U.S.

``I think this is a very positive signal,'' he said. ``We heard it, we treat
the U.S. in the same way. We are counting on a positive dialogue.''

******

CDI Russia Weekly:  http://www.cdi.org/russia

Johnson's Russia List Archive (under construction):  http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson