December 8, 1999    
This Date's Issues: 3668 • 3669  • 3670

Johnson's Russia List
#3669
8 December 1999
davidjohnson@erols.com


[Note from David Johnson:
1. Reuters: Russia eases deadline to leave Chechen capital.
2. The Guardian (UK): Bruno Stevens, Slow death of a city without hope. 
For the thousands trapped inside Grozny, there is little food and few 
supplies. There is only the wait.
3. Boston Globe: Ruth Daniloff, A Chechen asks, 'Why does everyone say 
we are terrorists?' 
4. Reuters: Russian region set to stay Red. (Krasnodar)
5. Reuters: IMF lists reasons for Russia cash delays.
6. St. Petersburg Times: Galina Stolyarova, Intelligentsia Meets To Mull 
Direction and Identity.
7. Obshchaya Gazeta: Duma Candidates Income Examined.
8. Moscow Times: Igor Semenenko, Growth Surge Gives Kremlin Cash for War, 
Debts.
9. BBC MONITORING: ELECTION BROADCAST BY MOVEMENT IN SUPPORT OF THE ARMY.
10. Reuters: Russia ``red'' governor backs pro-govt bloc. (Aman Tuleyev,
Kemerovo)
11. Financial Times (UK): SURVEY - GUIDE TO THE NEW MILLENIUM: Russia.] 


******


#1
Russia eases deadline to leave Chechen capital
By Ron Popeski

MOSCOW, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Russia's leadership, faced with a barrage of 
Western criticism, appears to have eased a military deadline for residents of 
Chechnya's capital to flee to allow for an assault to crush Islamic fighters 
defending the city. 


Interior Minister Vladimir Rushailo told NTV television on Tuesday that a 
checkpoint being organised outside Grozny would operate beyond Saturday, a 
deadline set in leaflets dropped by warplanes in the region a day earlier. 


``We will allow people able to leave before the 11th to pass through,'' 
Rushailo, dressed in battle fatigues, told NTV from hilly countryside. 


``But as the...checkpoint will realistically take the bulk of displaced 
persons after 11th December, this work will also be actively pursued after 
the 11th. Those able to leave areas of military activity should do so as 
quickly as possible in order not to endanger their lives and those of their 
loved ones.'' 


No refugees were in sight. 


Rushailo said anyone offering armed resistance to the Russian army ``will 
simply be destroyed.'' 


Senior officers denied any ultimatum had been issued at all. The leaflets, 
they said, were merely a warning drafted out of concern for the welfare of 
civilians still in Grozny. 


Various estimates put the number remaining in the city at between 20,000 and 
40,000, many reduced to sheltering in basements from nearly constant 
bombardments. Russian news reports quoted people leaving the city as saying 
most were unaware that a deadline had been issued to clear the city to allow 
for an all-out attack. 


Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, his popularity soaring since the drive began 
in September, has made several televised appearances to say the campaign 
would proceed. But he softened his stand over time, saying Russia had failed 
to explain to the West the reasons behind the campaign. 


The United States, Canada and European Union countries unleashed a torrent of 
condemnation of Russia's three-month-old campaign to restore control over 
Chechnya, abandoned by Russian troops after a 1994-96 war with the 
separatists. 


WASHINGTON SAYS UNLIKELY TO CURTAIL AID 


In Washington, White House spokesman Joe Lockhart said the United States was 
unlikely to cut off aid to Russia despite President Bill Clinton's statement 
that it would ``pay a heavy price'' for its onslaught on the region on its 
southern rim. 


German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer urged Russia to withdraw the 
deadline, Italian Prime Minister Massimo D'Alema described events in Chechnya 
as ``horrible, unacceptable'' and British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook said 
the EU could issue no aid ``if Russia does not respect basic humanitarian 
norms.'' 


Amnesty International called on Russia to abide by its obligations under 
international law and refrain from indiscriminate or direct attacks on 
Chechen civilians. 


Military operations proceeded without any respite, with warplanes flying 
almost continuous missions west of Grozny, apparently aimed at the rebel 
stronghold of Urus Martan. 


NTV showed Russian soldiers crouching in foxholes outside Urus Martan and 
said rebel counter attacks were preventing Moscow's forces from making any 
headway into the town. 


Rushailo was shown at a school in the village of Tolstoi-Yurt, in 
Russian-controlled territory north of Grozny, being taken to task by 
residents suggesting Moscow might withdraw from the region as it did after 
the 1994-96 war. 


``No one has any intention of deceiving anyone. Let's not talk about what 
happened back then. A lot of things happened,'' he said. ``I can tell you 
officially now -- we will not be leaving. No one will turn you over to the 
bandits.'' 


******


#2
The Guardian (UK)
8 December 1999
[for personal use only]
Slow death of a city without hope 
For the thousands trapped inside Grozny, there is little food and few 
supplies. There is only the wait
By Bruno Stevens
Bruno Stevens is a Belgian freelance photographer who returned from Chechnya 
on Sunday evening. He works for Stern and other magazines. 


Arriving in Grozny is like stepping back into the horror of Beirut. There is 
hardly a building left standing; it is a city of rubble and broken metal. 


The first impression is that it is deserted. Then, as you move further into 
the city, you slowly realise that there are a surprising number of people 
living in the middle of the devastation of the Chechen capital. 


Something like 20,000-30,000 people are still there. Most of them are 
elderly, or women with children. Ethnic Russians and Chechens live side by 
side with no tension. They don't blame each other for the suffering and there 
is no resentment towards the fighters; they blame the Russian government. 
Moscow is bombing civilians regardless of their nationality. 


Everybody, even the Chechen fighters, know that the Russians will take 
Grozny, and there will be many casualties. They are afraid that they will be 
killed in the fighting. When the Russians attacked the city in 1996, they 
were throwing hand grenades into basements. But the people have neither the 
will nor the physical ability to leave their city behind. 


They live in the ruined apartment blocks and spend the nights in the 
basements, up to 30 of them crowded together to escape the bombing and cold. 
It has been well below zero for two weeks, and there is more snow coming. But 
they have no gas for heating, and no water. 


It is too cold and too dangerous to spend time outside, so people go out only 
when they have to and only for a few minutes. Supplies are dwindling fast. 
The central market was destroyed by a Russian rocket which killed almost 200 
people. It happened more than a month ago, yet everything still lies exactly 
as it fell; stalls blown apart and twisted by the blast into ragged sharp 
edges. It is a terrible sight. 


But a few metres away, on the crossroads of Lenin Avenue and Peace Street, 
there are a few stalls still working. The traders have little to sell, hardly 
any fresh meat, a few vegetables, some cans and virtually nothing else. 


One old Russian man, Sergei, had walked a mile from the remains of his tiny 
apartment - no heating, no water and no glass in the windows - to buy noodles 
and some vegetables. His cooker was a metal bucket. "I have lived here for 55 
years. I am 85 and I will not leave," he told me. "I have no family left in 
Russia, I have nowhere else to go." 


The Russian air force is deliberately toying with these people. Even outside 
Grozny, I have watched as they fly low over a village, then turn back and 
fire rockets into the coun tryside in sight of the villagers. A little while 
later the planes return and this time the rockets fall a few hundred metres 
away. Women and children scream, the men try to appear strong. But they know 
that when the planes return again in half an hour, the rockets will be coming 
for them. 


Twenty kilometres away from Grozny is Shali, the only important flatland town 
still free of Russian control. There is a small hospital there with 40 beds 
and six doctors. They do their best but the conditions are bad. It is filled 
with people with dreadful injuries, all from the bombing: legs blown off or 
faces half missing. There are almost no drugs or bandages to treat them. 


Half an hour after we heard bombs fall on a nearby village, a 10-year-old 
boy, Adam, was brought into the clinic with a piece of shrapnel in his skull. 
The doctor removed it, stopped the bleeding, gave him some glucose and sent 
him home still unconscious. 


Shali was filled that day with Chechen fighters retreating from Argun, which 
had just fallen to the Russians. It was an orderly, well-planned retreat. 
They had fought until they ran out of ammunition and now they were collecting 
supplies before digging in again on another front. 


Late one night, I was taken to a secret location to see the Chechen 
president, Aslan Maskhadov, who told me that his fighters would never give 
in. That is why Moscow will never defeat them. 


When Grozny is taken, they will fight from the hills. 


******


#3
Boston Globe
7 December 1999
[for personal use only]
A Chechen asks, 'Why does everyone say we are terrorists?' 
By Ruth Daniloff
Ruth Daniloff is a freelance writer. 


Ibraghim is much in my thoughts as the Russians troops take his native 
Chechen city of Argun. Honor requires Ibraghim to defend the city, but with 
the wounds he received in the 1994-96 war, I doubt he will survive. Ibraghim 
had been caught in cross-fire on the banks of the Argun River and lay in icy 
water for eight hours before being rescued. Shrapnel riddled his body.


The Russians would call Ibraghim a terrorist. I call him a freedom fighter. 
In today's world, one nation's freedom fighter is another nation's terrorist.


The last time I heard from Ibraghim was a few weeks before the Russians moved 
on Chechnya. He sent a message that he had married and his wife was pregnant. 
The news was good, even miraculous. Doctors who treated him feared he 
wouldn't be able to have children.


A Muslim, Ibraghim has no desire to see Chechnya operate under Shariat 
(Muslim) law as is happening in Afghanistan. Before coming to the United 
States, he had never been outside the Russian Federation. He had studied 
engineering. The unemployment rate in Chechnya is 90 percent, so he couldn't 
find a job in his field.


Instead, he became a merchant, traveling from city to city, obtaining goods 
at one price and selling them at another to support various family members.


Like most Chechens, Ibraghim was convinced Russia has always wanted Chechnya 
without the Chechens.


And like most Chechens, he could recite the biographies of seven generations 
of ancestors, most of whom had resisted Russia. For him, resistance is a fact 
of life: Chechens have been resisting for 400 years. Nothing to make a fuss 
about. The male population is battle -hardened and the women ready to fight 
if necessary.


Ibraghim didn't talk about the war, though. In Chechnya it is bad form for a 
man to talk about killing.


As rocket shells pound the city and Russian artillery and tanks roll over the 
snowy terrain toward Argun, I worry about Ibraghim's family.


I imagine his mother, sisters, and the orphaned children he is caring for, 
sitting in a cellar, waiting for the bombs to hit. Or did Ibraghim find the 
necessary bribes to get them over the border to a refugee camp in Ingushetia? 
Did Russian planes strafe them on the way? Maybe the more robust members of 
the family escaped over the mountains into Georgia. There they will huddle in 
the snow under plastic sheeting; that is, if they are lucky enough to escape 
the avalanches and rock slides caused by the Russian bombs.


Genocide. What other word is there to describe the Russians' systematic 
elimination of towns, villages, and civilians? The Russians claim the bombing 
is in a good cause, that they are fighting global terrorism and we should be 
thankful to them. And if a few civilians get killed in the process, they are 
only doing what NATO did in Serbia. And when Western criticism becomes too 
shrill, the Russian propaganda machine hints that the Chechens are in contact 
with Osama bin Laden. Mention of bin Laden is guaranteed to muffle criticism. 
It might even bring in some Western help.


Of course, terrorists and bandits exist in Chechnya, as they do everywhere 
else. However, Ibraghim is no more a terrorist than all the other Chechens 
scheduled for slaughter in this bestial onslaught.


According to Webster's dictionary, a terrorist is someone who uses terror and 
violence as a political weapon. That is not Ibraghim.


''The Koran prohibits anything like that,'' he says. He says that Russian 
soldiers lobbing hand grenades in cellars where women and children huddle for 
protection is terrorism. If I could ask him, I am sure he would say that the 
recent explosions in Moscow apartment buildings were the work of the cynical 
Kremlin strategists - explosions purposefully set off to encourage popular 
support for retaliation and war.


''What do you think about us?'' Ibraghim asked after he had overcome his 
shyness with me. ''Do you think we're are barbarians and terrorists like the 
Russians tell everyone?'' The question took me off guard. In so many ways, 
this Chechen could teach us all something about civility and family values.


In Chechnya, the elderly are treated with enormous respect. Hospitality 
requires Chechens to invite refugees into their homes. Even Russian 
prisoners-of-war held in Chechen homes eat and sleep with the family. No 
dead- beat dads in Chechnya. It is dishonorable for a man not to support his 
family. Ibraghim is also obliged to care for brothers and cousins and the 
children of relatives killed in the war.


When I told Ibraghim last spring I admired these qualities, he beamed. But he 
looked surprised, too. 


''So why does everyone say we are terrorists?'' he asked.


******


#4
Russian region set to stay Red
By Aleksandras Budrys

KRASNODAR, Russia, Dec 8 (Reuters) - There is a corner of Russia which seems 
forever red. 


Sandwiched between the Black Sea coast and the turbulent North Caucasus, 
Russia's southern Krasnodar region is the heartland of the country's 
communist ``Red Belt.'' It is largely immune to political shifts towards the 
centre ground in the run-up to the December 19 national parliamentary 
election. 


The region's governor, Nikolai Kondratenko, is a proponent of unreconstructed 
communism, seasoned with a dose of populist nationalism, espousing the cause 
of unpaid pensioners while using rhetoric seen by many as anti-Semitic. 


Kondratenko has in the past voiced support for communist parliamentarian 
Albert Makashov, who said last year that Jews in Russia should be rounded up 
and jailed. Kondratenko says criticism of Makashov has been blown out of 
proportion. 


The governor leads his own political bloc called Fatherland, a name that 
causes controversy because it recalls the entirely unrelated Fatherland-All 
Russia centrist bloc led by former prime minister Yevgeny Primakov and Moscow 
Mayor Yuri Luzhkov. 


Fatherland-All Russia currently ranks number two -- after the Communist Party 
led by Gennady Zyuganov -- in opinion polls. Russia's unreliable polls place 
support for the Communists at around 20 percent and give Fatherland-All 
Russia about 16 percent. 


So supporters of Russia's second most popular party in Krasnodar city feel 
they have to make clear which Fatherland is theirs. 


LIMITED SUPPORT FOR NON-COMMUNISTS IN CITY 


``We believe in ourselves and in Fatherland -- Luzhkov's party,'' says a 
slogan spanning the long, narrow main street called Krasnaya or Red Street. 


There are no slogans supporting the regional governor among the low-rise 
hotchpotch of turn of the century and modern buildings in Krasnodar, a name 
which means Red Gift. 


It got its name from Communist local authorities who in 1920 decided to 
change its original name of Yekaterinodar, a name honouring Empress Catherine 
the Great who founded the city as a military base in 1793. 


Local journalist Dmitry Nayakov, 28, who works for a newspaper which he says 
is politically neutral, says the lack of slogans supporting pro-Communist 
Kondratenko is explained by the city's centrist mayor. 


``Krasnodar's mayor is Valery Samoilenko, who is a supporter of Luzhkov's 
Fatherland and an opponent of Kondratenko,'' he said. ``No matter how hard he 
tries, Kondratenko can do nothing against the mayor, because he was elected 
and therefore can't be removed by the governor.'' 


He said Kondratenko had tried to oust the mayor by putting a bill through the 
local assembly. 


According to the local pro-mayor newspaper, Krasnodarskiye Izvestia, the bill 
was rejected by the local prosecutor who sent it back to the assembly for 
revision, citing contradictions. 


PENSIONERS WIELD SIGNIFICANT VOTE 


The city of Krasnodar with its population of less than one million is only a 
small part of a region of five million where Kondratenko's position seems to 
be unshakeable. 


``People will vote for whoever Kondratenko tells them,'' said Alexei, a 
freelance photographer. 


A November 1998 election for the local assembly proved Kondratenko's strength 
when his supporters won 38 of 50 seats. 


Nayakov said 1.5 million people in the region are pensioners who have a good 
track record of showing up at polling stations to support Kondratenko. 


``Since his election in 1996, Kondratenko has not permitted delays in paying 
pensions,'' he said. Elsewhere in Russia pensioners are owed months of unpaid 
payments. 


``What's more, he ordered a 10 percent pension increase last September and 
also a special increase of around 800 roubles ($30) per month to all war and 
labour veterans decorated with high state orders.'' 


Alexander, a young driver in his twenties, said there was nothing to balance 
the pensioners' votes. ``Young people are not (politically) active at all,'' 
he said. 


That means local people do not expect Primakov's bloc to make much running in 
the country's traditional bread basket, even though its national prospects 
are looking good. 


PUTIN 


Local people, who seem to know everything about local politicians and are 
eager to talk, become more reserved when asked about figures from the 
political centre. 


They have more questions than answers about Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. 
Putin's popularity has soared elsewhere on the back of his hawkish stance on 
Chechnya, where a huge military offensive is underway to wipe out guerrillas 
in the separatist region. 


Putin, a former KGB spy and security official, has been annointed President 
Boris Yeltsin's favoured successor in a presidential election scheduled for 
mid 2000. 


``Putin? You tell us about Putin yourself,'' is the usual reaction when asked 
about him. 


*******


#5
IMF lists reasons for Russia cash delays
By Janet Guttsman

WASHINGTON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund, caught in the 
cross-fire of whether to delay loans to Russia because of the bloody war in 
rebel Chechnya, on Tuesday listed the economic reasons why it could not yet 
pay. 


In a brief statement, IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus said he would 
recommend the IMF board discuss new money for Russia once the government had 
met outstanding promises included in a July 13 letter to the fund. 


He made no mention of the fighting in Chechnya, where Russian forces have 
warned civilians to flee the regional capital Grozny or risk annihilation. 


Some IMF member states want the fund to delay new lending while the Chechnya 
fighting rages on. Others, including the United States, may be less likely to 
press for a halt to aid. 


Camdessus, speaking a day after the IMF's executive board informally 
discussed the fate of a $4.5 billion loan to Russia, said Russia had made 
"important progress" on economic reforms. 


"Program expectations have been exceeded regarding economic growth, the 
containment of inflation, the fiscal balance, and international reserves," he 
said. 


"On the structural side, there has also been some progress. However, a number 
of structural benchmarks set for end-September 1999 remain to be met. When 
these remaining issues have been satisfactorily resolved, I expect to 
recommend completion of the review to the Executive Board." 


The completion of an IMF review means that the fund is approving more money 
for the borrowing country. In Russia's case under the current loan, the money 
would not actually reach Russia but would be used to repay previous IMF 
credits. 


Russia is already the IMF's largest single borrower, but it has a dismal 
track record in meeting its promises to the fund. IMF officials, under 
pressure from member countries anxious not to offend the fading superpower, 
have frequently waived some of the conditions for lending. 


But Russia insists it has done everything it needs to do this time to win a 
delayed $640 million payment and IMF officials say Moscow has not requested a 
waiver on this occasion. 


But in an unusual development, the fund released a detailed list of five 
"structural benchmarks" which Russia initially promised to meet by Sept. 30 
-- around the time when it had hoped to win the cash. Russia had not met 
these benchmarks by Dec. 7, the IMF said. 


The conditions include approving new rules on bankruptcy, trade and audits 
for state-controlled funds and efforts to encourage firms and individuals to 
pay their bills for key services like gas, electricity, heating and 
transportation. 


Many payments are currently made in the form of barter rather than of cash. 
IMF experts say this is open to abuse, while cash payments are transparent 
and more easy to track. 


The fund traditionally says it decides on lending based on economic criteria 
rather than on political ones, but Camdessus admitted last month that the IMF 
could not lend to Russia if member countries wanted to tie new loans to peace 
in Chechnya. 


******


#6
St. Petersburg Times
December 7, 1999
Intelligentsia Meets To Mull Direction and Identity
By Galina Stolyarova
STAFF WRITER


When is a member of the intelligentsia not a member of the intelligentsia?


This was the kind of question on the minds of participants at the Second 
Congress of Russia's Intelligentsia, a day-long event held in St. Petersburg 
last Thursday featuring such prominent figures as former prime minister 
Sergei Stepashin, writer Daniil Granin, writer and playwright Arkady Vainer, 
theater director Mark Rozovsky, and the director of the State Hermitage 
Museum, Mikhail Piotrovsky.


The late Russian poet Bulat Okudzhava, widely considered to be a leading 
cultural figure in his lifetime, was once asked if he thought of himself as 
an intelligyentny chelovyek. "We'll find out when I'm dead," he replied.


Indeed, it is sometimes difficult to know who does and does not belong to 
this "club" - a peculiarly Russian phenomenon that does not exactly match the 
Western idea of a cultural elite.


Professor Vladimir Triodin, of the St. Petersburg University of Humanities 
and Social Sciences - which hosted the congress - was against the definition 
many people use for the intelligentsia: a "professional."


"A hitman is obviously an excellent professional - in his field - but no one 
would argue that he has something in common with the intelligentsia," Triodin 
said.


"I don't see the sense of giving definitions, for there is an immense variety 
of opinions," said Arkady Vainer. "Some people associate intelligyentnost 
with politeness, others with intellect. I believe that intelligyent means a 
person is cultured, educated, compassionate, spiritual, and looks upon others 
with kindness - in short, an intellectual with a soul."


Whether the intelligentsia can agree among itself over what it is, it has 
recently lost individuals who would without a doubt qualify for membership: 
along with from Okudzhava, literary scholar Dmitry Likhachyov, liberal 
politician Galina Starovoitova, theater and movie director Rolan Bykov, 
writer Anatoly Rybakov, and ballerina Ga lina Ulanova have all died since 
1997.


And there was another unfortunate aspect to the congress, when journalist 
Valery Dragilev, a staff reporter for local television station Channel Six, 
was beaten up by security staff as he tried to get in to cover the event.


Even without that, the media provided the most negative aspect of the 
congress, as the intelligentsia spoke of its misgivings over the current 
state of affairs in the national press and on television - widely perceived 
as serving the interests of a few wealthy owners rather than providing an 
independent mass information source.


"But what should we expect?" asked Oleg Poptsov, general director of the 
Pushkinskaya Ploshchad publishing house. "Unable to provide decent funding, 
Russia's authorities gave the media its independence, and poverty made it 
seek rich and powerful owners. No wonder that now its acts according to the 
rules set out by its owners."


The debate didn't get any more positive with the answer many people provided 
to the question of what unites the Russian people today. Sorrow, said the 
majority - although Stepashin offered a conciliatory note.


"It is impossible to unite exclusively around problems," Stepashin said. "We 
[united] in 1812, in 1941, and in 1999 over the war in Chechnya."


But Stepashin sounded a warning over a rise in nationalist feeling. "Yes, we 
should definitely fight terrorists," he said. "But we mustn't use it as a 
tool to strenghthen the position of the government. Even in St. Petersburg, 
known for its ethnic tolerance, I hear voters calling for the removal of 
people from the Caucasus from the city. It is the intelligentsia's task to 
oppose these views."


After all the talk, however, it was time for the Congress of Russia's 
Intelligentsia to come up with its declaration. While the intelligentsia has 
traditionally distanced itself from direct political involvement, such 
declarations are seen as representative of the nation's mentality and of the 
direction of its intellectuals .


The first effort was short on concrete proposals, stating that "The 
intelligentsia calls for opposition to moral decay, lawlessness and political 
extremism ... and for the preservation and support of education, science, 
culture, and health care, which is the future of our Motherland's greatness."


The declaration was read aloud, and ideas for improving the statement were 
invited.


Film director Savva Kulish suggested including a paragraph calling for the 
unification of democratic movements to form a strong coalition in the next 
State Duma. The proposal was accepted - with Fatherland-All Russia, Right 
Cause and Unity specifically mentioned in the final text.


Then Professor Gasan Aigunov, a doctor of physics and mathematics from 
Dagestan, proposed another clause approving Russia's efforts at crushing 
terrorism "provided that such efforts do not contradict humanitarian laws or 
violate human rights."


"I have been to the Novolakhsky district [in Chechnya]," said Aigunov, "and 
can tell you that the military actions are precise, helpful and well 
executed. "And local people realize that too. I saw Chechen boys waving flags 
to greet Russian soldiers. People have learnt by now what Shamil Basayev is 
doing with those refusing to cooperate - he just guns them down."


"The fruits of this Congress will ripen eventually," said Arkady Vainer, "not 
necessarily resulting in publications, but in ideas that will have a positive 
effect on the country's government and the decisions of its leading 
politicians."


*******


#7
Duma Candidates Income Examined
Obshchaya Gazeta 
25 November 1999
[translation for personal use only]
Article by Vladimir Zolotukhin, former USSR people's deputy: "Only 
Paupers Run for the Duma: Property Statements Are a Fig Leaf" 


This year the Central Electoral Commission asked candidates for deputy 
to show the contents of their pockets. The whole country was tense with 
expectation: would future Duma members really report everything they 
owned? Just recently the foreign media estimated the worth of many 
Russian politicians in the billions of dollars, placing them on a par 
with the richest individuals in the world. It would be interesting to see 
what those same politicians report in the statements they submit to the 
Central Electoral Commission. 
The initial interest turned into disappointment. Many of the gentlemen 
who were considered wealthy turned out to be poorer than hundreds of 
thousands of their fellow citizens, their pay was close to the 
statistical average pension, and they owned neither dachas nor apartments 
nor cars. It makes you want to stand up and shout: "Let's help out 
these future State Duma deputies!" Where did their billions go? 
The explanation is very simple. The federal law governing the election 
of State Duma deputies requires each candidate to report the amount of 
his or her annual income and the sources thereof, as well as parcels of 
land, housing, garages and vehicles belonging to the candidate. So what 
the public gets to see is by no means the things that comprise an 
aspiring deputy's true wealth. 
Forbes, a magazine that compiles an annual rating of the wealthiest 
people on the planet (if you recall, recently that list included our 
fellow citizens V. Potanin, R. Vyakhirev, M. Khodorovskiy, V. Alekperov 
and B. Berezovskiy), appraises them somewhat differently than the Central 
Electoral Commission does. For example, the wealth of Microsoft head Bill 
Gates comes to $90 billion. Do you think that this is the value of the 
homes, villas and automobiles that belong to him? No, that is the value 
of his corporation. If one were to use the Russian method of assessing 
property, Bill Gates might seem much poorer than, say, deputy candidate 
V. Ya. Pekarev (Fatherland-All Russia), who earned R1,099,501 in one year 
and owns two dachas, an apartment and a Mercedes AMG. 
So we should not flatter ourselves: the information about property 
ownership collected and published by the Central Electoral Commission is 
completely worthless. If we were to appraise our elite using 
international methods, we would get totally different figures. 
For example, Citizen X, an individual respected by all, owns 1% of the 
stock in some major publicly traded company (Gazprom, RAO YeES, Sidanko, 
etc.). How does one go about estimating his wealth? Let us try to do it 
using data published in the press. The English paid V. Potanin $571 
million for his 10% of stock in the Sidanko oil company. In December of 
last year Ruhrgas AG invested $661 million in 2.5% of Gazprom stock. It 
is not hard to figure out what 1% of stock in these companies is worth. 
Furthermore, a Gazprom stockholder could also simultaneously be the 
co-owner of many dozens of companies and enterprises established by 
Gazprom (for example, 40% of Media-Most stock belong to Gazprom). Our 
election law does not require candidates to reveal information about 
their stock holdings. Nor does it require them to mention companies, 
enterprises, foundations, etc. that have been established by them 
personally or in partnership with others. Yet that is a very important 
assessment criterion. For example, State Duma deputy candidate B. A. 
Berezovskiy is the founder (i.e. owner) of AOZT Logovaz, AOZT 
Lada-Konversiya, TOO Simpleks, ZAO R.K.-Trast, AOZT Transposervis, TOO 
Atoll Ltd., TOO Logo-Konsult, ZAO Moskovskaya nezavisimaya veshchatelnaya 
korporatsiya [Moscow Independent Broadcasting Corporation], the 
Foundation for Assistance to State Security Employees, Veterans and 
Families of Deceased Employees, and the Shelter Foundation. Well-informed 
individuals add that Logovaz also owns stock in ORT, AvtoVAZbank and AO 
AVVA. Looking at all this it becomes clear that B. A. Berezovskiy, who 
(according to the information reported by him to the Central Electoral 
Commission) does not even own his own apartment, is in fact not a hapless 
beggar. 
Unfortunately, the current election law protects the rich and powerful 
from the necessity of declaring their true wealth. A good intention - to 
make information about the property status of candidates for deputy 
"transparent" - has turned into a farce. 


*******


#8
Moscow Times
December 8, 1999 
NEWS ANALYSIS: Growth Surge Gives Kremlin Cash for War, Debts 
By Igor Semenenko
Staff Writer


Buoyant world oil prices have kept the Russian economy humming along, with 
November's gross domestic product surging 5.5 percent on a monthly basis to 
442 billion rubles ($17.1 billion) in nominal terms, according to government 
figures. 


The growth surge has pumped extra cash into federal budget coffers, giving 
the government enough cash to be able to both fund the war in Chechnya and 
those foreign debts it has committed itself to paying. 


Even though economists say the November figure for GDP is unreliable - and 
that quarterly data for the third and fourth quarters will provide more 
insight into the real state of the economy - rosy economic forecasts for the 
end of the year are common among analysts. 


The government itself forecasts growth in GDP - a measure of broad economic 
health - of 1.6 percent for the whole of 1999. 


While the stimulatory effects of last year's ruble devaluation have continued 
to play some role, oil is the overwhelming reason behind the economy's 
ongoing strong growth. 


"The macroeconomic performance is largely due to high oil prices," said 
Alexei Ulyukaev, deputy director for the Institute of the Economy in 
Transition. 


In the first 11 months of 1999, customs collected 162 billion rubles, or 4.3 
percent of GDP, up from 2.5 percent of GDP for the whole of last year. And 
the main reason for that increase boils down to the increased value of taxes 
on crude exports. 


There is no evidence that war spending has been boosting the economy, 
analysts said. 


The government has increased defense spending by 26 billion rubles. 


"[If the war had boosted the economy ]it would have an immediate effect on 
the fiscal side," said Katya Malofeyeva, an analyst who tracks macroeconomics 
at Renaissance-Capital investment bank. 


"Budget expenditures are not growing," said Peter Westin, an economist with 
the Russian-European Center for Economic Policies. 


He said the expected sharp growth of GDP in dollar terms by the year's end is 
due to the lag between inflation and currency devaluation. 


Meanwhile, the strong growth in macroeconomic indicators, including GDP and 
industrial output has helped provide the government with a budget surplus of 
9.2 billion rubles ($356 million) for the month of November. 


The government's cash balances surged to 20.8 billion rubles at the end of 
the month, up from 8 billion rubles on Nov. 1. 


Last month was the second month in a row for which the government reported a 
budget surplus. 


October revenues exceeded expenditure by 1.9 billion rubles. 


And the government this week moved to further tighten its fiscal grip, 
raising tariffs on exports of crude, calling for an end to tax exemptions for 
aluminum tolling and even putting the squeeze on the country's largest 
taxpayer, Gazprom. 


Tariffs on crude exports were lifted from 7.5 euros ($7.61) to 15 euros per 
metric ton, which should bring in an additional 1.8 billion rubles ($67 
million) each month to state coffers, government officials said. 


The government also wants to tighten the tolling regime for aluminum 
producers in order to crack down on tax evasion and stimulate sector 
restructuring, news agencies reported Tuesday. 


And the government has started pressuring Gazprom to make all of its tax 
payments in cash in December. Gazprom paid 8.7 billion rubles in cash to the 
government in November. 


******


#9
BBC MONITORING
ELECTION BROADCAST BY MOVEMENT IN SUPPORT OF THE ARMY
07-Dec-1999


[This 5' broadcast opens with picture of the Kremlin by night, fading to the 
head and shoulders of the late Gen Rokhlin and clips of the army, followed by 
a close-up of party leader Viktor Ilyukhin, captioned Movement in Support of 
the Army, the Defence Industry and Military Science, cutting to Ilyukhin 
shaking hands with an officer against a background of marching soldiers]


[Larisa Baranova-Gonchenko, captioned as State Secretary of the Board of the 
Russian Writers' Union] Esteemed voters, in representing the Movement in 
Support of the Army today, I would like to say what might be a few unexpected 
words to you.


What we are doing today is apparently called an advert. I am firmly convinced 
that an advert is not needed by the Movement in Support of the Army. It does 
not need adverts.


Primarily I would like to address Russia's intelligentsia. We remember our 
history well and I would like to recall today one of its most fateful moments 
which is also of great significance for Russia today.


One of our best and wisest tsars - and this is regardless of whether we are 
communists, monarchists or liberals - I am talking about Aleksandr III, 
admonished his son, our last tsar, Nicholas II, using the following words: I 
would like to remind you - Russia has no friends except for its army and 
navy. This is why I say that the Movement in Support of the Army does not 
need an advert. Otherwise, who are we if we cannot support our closest 
friends?


Aleksandr III did not tell his son at that time that Russia has friends - the 
Serbs. But, both he and his son understood well that at all times in their 
history and ours, the Serbs primarily required our protection and we saw this 
clearly when our forces recently entered Pristina. What enthusiasm was 
aroused by the movement of our forces.


It seems to me that the army has always been Russia's nerve-centre, its 
heart. The army is our industry, the army is our life and the army is our 
culture.


[Passage omitted: lists Russian writers who have links with the army.]


I would once again like to address our Russian intelligentsia. How could it 
happen that the Russian army was dismantled before our very eyes? How could 
it happen that it was humiliated and trampled underfoot?


It seems to me that our homeland's misfortune does not only lie in the fact 
that we suffered an unprecedented betrayal at state level, although this was 
the primary thing, but I believe that our homeland's misfortune lies in the 
fact that the Russian intelligentsia and intelligentsia of Russia stopped 
understanding and noticing its heroes. This does not mean that Russia does 
not give birth to heroes. That is not the case, but I would say that we have 
stopped paying heed to and raising up our heroes. I would like to repeat once 
more that the Movement in Support of the Army does not need adverts because 
the blood of a real Russian hero is on its standards. I am talking about Lev 
Yakovlevich Rokhlin.


Our movement is often called a fascist movement. Even some of those involved 
in our movement almost accuse it of anti-Semitism. But excuse me, Lev 
Yakovlevich Rokhlin, God rest him, never hid the fact that Jewish blood 
flowed in his veins. For me he is the best Russian hero and I honour him. 
Perhaps it is for this very reason that I am in this movement today.


The standard of this movement is today borne by Viktor Ivanovich Ilyukhin. 
Without exaggeration I can call him a Russian hero because, by the current 
standards of Russian history, he has not only performed a civilian heroic 
deed, but also a military one. As you will recall, he entered into a duel 
with President [Mikhail] Gorbachev himself.


What Viktor Ivanovich does in the Duma today is a daily heroic deed. It is 
courage, adherence to principles and, in my view, it is real heroism.


Esteemed voters. Once more I address the Russian intelligentsia, my 
colleagues who are writers and everyone who is making their choice today. The 
Movement in Support of the Army, the Defence Industry and Military Science is 
a movement of honourable people, it is a movement of Russian heroes. It is 
capable of changing our lives for the better.


Source: Russia TV, Moscow, in Russian 0515 gmt 7 Dec 99


*****


#10
INTERVIEW-Russia ``red'' governor backs pro-govt bloc
By Andrei Shukshin

KEMEROVO, Russia, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The Communist leader of one of Russia's 
most socially explosive regions has thrown his weight behind a pro-government 
bloc in a move which could reshape the outcome of the December 19 
parliamentary election. 


Aman Tuleyev, governor of the Kemerovo region in Siberia's industrial 
heartland, said his support in the election of the State Duma lower house of 
parliament would go to the new Yedinstvo (Unity) bloc as well as to the 
Communists. 


``It is Yedinstvo and the Communist-led For Victory! bloc,'' he said in a 
weekend interview at his Stalin-era office in central Kemerovo, which 
overlooks a square dominated by a huge statue of Vladimir Lenin, founder of 
the Soviet state. 


Tuleyev's drift towards the Kremlin-oriented Yedinstvo could have a big 
impact on the election results by prompting other governors who once sided 
with the Communists to follow suit. 


Many voters in Russia's 89 regions are expected to follow the advice of their 
locally elected leaders. This contrasts with the last Duma poll in 1995 when 
regional bosses, then mostly appointees of the Kremlin, held little sway over 
the electorate. 


Tuleyev said the Communist Party itself was pushing ``red'' governors into 
the government's arms by failing to support their efforts to breathe life 
into economically depressed regions. 


``At the beginning, all the governors were coming to them for support but 
there was none. All support from Moscow evaporated after the elections,'' he 
said, adding that the party was killing itself by refusing to move from 
rhetoric to concrete deeds. 


MOSCOW STILL WARY OF KEMEROVO'S ``RED'' GOVERNOR 


Tuleyev, one of the most vociferous critics of Russia's ruling elite who 
withdrew from the 1996 presidential election in favour of Communist leader 
Gennady Zyuganov, won 95 percent of the votes cast in the 1997 gubernatorial 
election in Kemerovo. 


Kemerovo, Russia's main coal-mining region, went into decline after the 
collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. In 1998, it witnessed scenes of social 
unrest when angry coal miners blocked the Trans-Siberian railway over unpaid 
wages. 


Tuleyev said his attempts to reform the region, plagued by pollution, were 
also undermined by the government's reluctance to give money to a man still 
seen in Moscow as a ``red'' governor. 


``It is our tragedy. Once they stick a label on you it is impossible to shed 
it,'' he said. 


Tuleyev stopped short of saying his support for Yedinstvo was aimed at 
currying favour with Moscow. 


Yedinstvo, a regionally based party with no formal structure and a vague 
programme, was formed only two months ago by Emergencies Minister Sergei 
Shoigu but has made progress because of an endorsement from popular Prime 
Minister Vladimir Putin. 


Analysts say Yedinstvo is masterminded by President Boris Yeltsin's entourage 
who want it to dent the chances of Fatherland-All Russia, another governors' 
bloc led by former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and Moscow Mayor Yuri 
Luzhkov. 


Both Primakov and Luzhkov are openly hostile to the Kremlin. 


BRIGHT FUTURE FOR YEDINSTVO 


Tuleyev said that even if Yedinstvo had started as a conspiracy it had a 
bright future ahead of it if Putin used it as an instrument to build support 
for his presidential bid. 


Russia will hold a presidential poll in mid-2000. Yeltsin, who is barred from 
standing again, has said he wants Putin to succeed him as president. 


``The Duma election is the first stage,'' Tuleyev said, adding that Putin's 
interest would help keep Yedinstvo on track. 


``Now it is up to the premier to see to it. We have a presidential election 
ahead of us and if their approach is not serious enough they can lose (the 
presidential election).'' 


Despite his backing for Yedinstvo, Tuleyev was cautious enough not to put all 
his eggs in one basket. 


``The Communists, as well as Yedinstvo, will do well in Kemerovo,'' he said. 
``People remember Soviet days, they have something to compare the present 
time with... And for many of them in this comparison the past comes out 
best.'' 


*******


#11
Financial Times (UK)
6 December 1999
SURVEY - GUIDE TO THE NEW MILLENIUM: Russia


Russia looks like a European country and Russians visibly look like 
Europeans. But this is a delusion," argues Mikhail Fridman, head of the Alfa 
financial-industrial group and one of Russia's leading 'oligarchs'.


"We have a different history, different traditions, and a different culture."


A recent report from the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, a talking 
shop for the Russian elite, even questioned whether the country would 
continue to exist at all. Its fear was that the "magic clues" holding the 
country together would simply dissolve leaving Russia as no more than a "blur 
on the map".


The Russian population has certainly endured a miserable decade following a 
frighteningly severe contraction of economic output and an alarming rise in 
poverty, disease, crime and mortality rates. Murray Feshbach, a research 
professor at Georgetown University, suggests that on current projections 
Russia's population could decline from 148.3m in 1990 to 80m by 2050.


"If demography is destiny, then the destiny of Russia for the next 50 years 
is appalling," he wrote in a recent newspaper article.


It might count as some perverse consolation that Russia has endured far worse 
this century as a result of the Bolshevik revolution of 1917, the Great 
Terror, and the Second World War. Throughout its history, Russia has also 
shown a remarkable capacity for national regeneration after devastating 
setbacks. Moreover, the nation is finally, if fitfully, beginning to conduct 
a real debate with itself about what type of country it wants to become in 
the next millennium. The presidential elections in June 2000 provide the 
focus for this new thinking.


Igor Chubais, a philosopher, suggests that Russia's overriding problem is 
that it lost its Soviet identity in 1991 and has yet to discover a new role. 
He suggests four possible directions in which society could now evolve.


The first, favoured by the Communist Party, is simply to try to turn Russia 
into a "new edition of the Soviet Union". "This will prove a dead end, but 
that does not mean we will not enter it," says Mr Chubais.


The second, supported by the country's westernisers, envisages a European 
path of development.


The third, advocated by some nationalists, is to recreate the Russia that was 
lost in 1917 - highly conservative, though not totalitarian, open to foreign 
investment and ideas. "This does not mean a separation from the west. It 
means we will be ourselves within a unified Europe," Mr Chubais says.


The fourth, which might develop by default, forsees a continuation of the 
existing muddle. Russia will be a society which honours the remains of Tsar 
Nicholas II but talks about restoring the statue of Felix Dzerzhinsky, the 
founder of what was to become the KGB.


Whatever the outcome, there is a lot more history left in Russia in the next 
millennium.


*******


#12
BBC
7 December, 1999
Analysis: Russia's fighting tactics 
By defence correspondent Jonathan Marcus 


The text of the Russian leaflets dropped on Grozny warn residents to leave 
the Chechen capital by Saturday - this, it bluntly states, is the only way 
they can avoid death and the destruction of their city. 


The Russian armed forces certainly have the means to carry out their threat. 


Russian generals know that in close combat their poorly trained conscript 
soldiers are no match for the well-motivated and hardened Chechen fighters. 


So now they are playing to their strengths, seeking to use firepower to clear 
areas of Chechen fighters while avoiding the sort of close-up infantry 
combat. 


Thus Russia has adopted sledgehammer tactics, using long-range artillery, 
tank fire and aircraft to pound away at centres of Chechen resistance. 


This war at a distance has of course created widespread casualties among 
civilians for which Moscow has been criticised by the West. 


It is hard to get accurate information about Russian losses; some aircraft 
have been shot down - evidence that even the basic anti-aircraft systems 
available to the Chechens are highly capable against low-flying Russian jets. 


This has tended to push Russian attacks to higher altitude, again increasing 
the risk of civilian casualties. 


Most of the Russian weaponry used is well-known from earlier campaigns. 


New helicopters 


However, Russian sources have claimed that there are plans to deploy a small 
number of its most recent attack helicopters. 


The Ka-50 - or Hokum-A, as it is known to Nato - will be used in the region, 
as part of an experimental combat unit. 


So far these tactics have paid off. But as the war reaches its climax in the 
struggle for Grozny, Russia's tactics may win it few friends. 


There is talk in Russian military circles of using a variety of explosive 
weapons in the final onslaught that will either penetrate cellars and bunkers 
or simply suck out the air leaving their occupants dead. 


The consequences for wounded or frightened civilians who either cannot or 
will not leave the city are terrible to imagine. 


But the question remains for the Russians - what then? 


Waiting for revenge 


Russian firepower cannot kill all the Chechen fighters from long range. 
Troops will ultimately need to go in to clear the city. 


The Chechen fighters have inevitably given ground in the face of the Russian 
onslaught. 


Their relatively light weaponry means that they cannot match Russian 
firepower or manoeuvre forces in open country. 


What they really need is a repeat of Russia's mid-1990s full-scale ground 
offensive against the Chechen capital, Grozny. 


That's when any remaining Chechen fighters will seek to use the cover of the 
ruins to take their revenge. 


*******