December 8, 1999    
This Date's Issues: 3668 • 3669  • 3670

Johnson's Russia List
#3668
8 December 1999
davidjohnson@erols.com


[Note from David Johnson:
1. Itar-Tass: Matrimony Rate on Decline in Russia.
2. Reuters: Paul Taylor, West won't make Russia pay on Chechnya.
3. Rossiiskaya Gazeta: Boris Yeltsin, WE WON'T CEDE TO TERRORISTS AN INCH 
OF OUR LAND.
4. Itar-Tass: MASKHADOV'S Family Stay in Russia under FSB Protection-Putin.
5. Financial Times (UK): David Kramer, Blood and war form the true IMF 
audit. It is Russia's war in Chechnya that should delay loans, rather than 
questions over financial safeguards.
6. Moscow Times: Simon Saradzhyan, Election Presses Army to Take Grozny.
7. Branko Milanovic: the new James Bond.
8. The Times (UK) letter: The civilian victims of Chechnya.
9. Michele Ann Berdy: Chernomyrdin quote.
10. Moscow Tribune: Stanislav Menshikov, STRANGE HAPPENINGS AT THE IMF.
It Probably Needs an Audit.
11. Interfax: DUMA FIGURE CALLS FOR IGNORING CLINTON CRITICISM.
12. New York Times: Text of Russian leaflet dropped on Grozny.
13. Reuters: Angry Russia ignores ``hypocritical'' West.
14. UPI: U.S. eavesdrop backs claims of Russian losses.
15. Itar-Tass: Zhirinovsky to Appeal for Putting off Duma Election 
to 2000. 
16. Reuters: Russia war becoming crime against humanity-Canada.] 


******


#1
Matrimony Rate on Decline in Russia.


MOSCOW, December 7 (Itar-Tass) - The rate of matrimonies in Russia dropped by 
1.5 times over the past eight years. There were 848,700 matrimonies 
registered in 1998, which was a 80,000 drop, said speakers at a demographic 
round-table meeting in the Central House of Correspondents on Tuesday. 


According to the State Statistics Committee, the number of civil marriages 
and illegitimate children increased. Up to 30 percent of children brought to 
orphanages every year are kids of single mothers. The largest number of 
illegitimate children is registered in East Siberia and the Russian Far East, 
especially the Republic of Tyva. Over a half of children in that republic are 
illegitimate. 


The divorce rate is on decline, too. There were 501,400 divorces registered 
in Russia last year, which was 53,700 less than in 1997. Still, there are 591 
divorces per every 1,000 matrimonies in the country. 


******


#2
ANALYSIS-West won't make Russia pay on Chechnya
By Paul Taylor, Diplomatic Editor

LONDON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Despite its hardening rhetoric, the West is 
unlikely to charge Russia a serious financial or political price for its 
massive crackdown in Chechnya, diplomats and analysts say. 


But Moscow's ultimatum to Chechens to flee their capital Grozny or face 
death, and grim television images of refugees, make it impossible for any 
Western government to relaunch cooperation with Russia, they say. 


While the Chechnya conflict endures, the prospect is for a chilly, 
ill-tempered relationship with echoes of the Cold War. 


U.S. President Bill Clinton warned Russia on Monday it would pay heavily for 
its assault on Chechnya, but he made clear he meant damage to its global 
reputation rather than a suspension of multilateral loans or bilateral aid 
programmes. 


``Russia will pay a heavy price for those actions, with each passing day 
sinking more deeply into a morass that will intensify extremism and diminish 
its own standing in the world,'' Clinton said in a White House speech. 


The European Union condemned ``all disproportionate and indiscriminate use of 
force in Chechnya'' and said it was considering freezing research and 
technical assistance accords due to be signed with Russia -- a largely 
symbolic measure. 


The verbal barrage continued on Tuesday with France and Italy branding 
Moscow's behaviour unacceptable and Britain summoning the Russian ambassador 
to voice dismay. 


But despite public pressure, experts say there is little prospect of the West 
halting International Monetary Fund loans to Russia because of the potential 
repercussions if Moscow defaulted on its official debt. 


``We are talking loudly to avoid actually doing anything,'' said a diplomat 
privy to EU and transatlantic consultations on responses to Chechnya. 
``Everyone condemns what the Russians are doing, but I don't hear anyone say 
we're going to take action.'' 


``If we suspended IMF loans, we would lose any leverage on other important 
issues such as Iraq, nuclear arms control, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty 
and NATO-Russia relations,'' the diplomat said. 


WEST LACKS INFLUENCE 


Oksana Antonenko, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic 
Studies, said the West had lost influence in Russia because of its air war 
over Kosovo, and an anti-Western mood was fuelling public support for the 
Chechnya crackdown. 


``The U.S.-Russia relationship has deteriorated fundamentally and is likely 
to deteriorate further after the Duma (parliament) election (on December 19), 
whoever wins,'' she said. ``The main presidential candidates are all 
anti-Western.'' 


The International Monetary Fund is holding up $640 million in new cash for 
what it insists are technical economic reasons. 


IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus said on November 27 the Fund's 
directors would ``reflect world opinion'' on Chechnya when they decided 
whether to release loans to Russia. 


But U.S. officials have avoided such direct conditionality, stressing that 
IMF and bilateral aid are linked to Moscow's economic policies or issues of 
national security concern such as the safety of former Soviet nuclear weapons 
stockpiles. 


The Clinton administration is already under fire at home from critics who 
accuse it of squandering taxpayers' money on loans to Russia alleged to have 
fuelled corruption or been laundered by mafias. 


David Kramer, associate director of the Russian programme at the Carnegie 
Endowment for International Peace, urged Washington in an article on Tuesday 
to halt the next IMF instalment and delay a $500 million loan from the U.S. 
Export-Import Bank to Russia's Tyumen Oil Company ``to demonstrate moral 
leadership and ensure that we do not fund Moscow's brutality.'' 


Britain's Guardian newspaper, a bellwether of liberal opinion, slammed 
``vacuous pronouncements'' by the European Union and said Brussels and 
Washington should reach into the toolkit of targeted economic and trade 
sanctions to pressure Moscow. 


It also suggested the 54-nation Organisation for Security and Cooperation in 
Europe move to suspend or expel Russia unless mediation efforts were allowed 
to proceed. 


OSCE chairman Norwegian Foreign Minister Knut Vollebaek is to be allowed to 
visit the region on December 15-16, but Moscow has ruled out any foreign 
mediation in what it calls an internal operation against ``Islamic 
terrorists.'' 


TACIT UNDERSTANDING? 


Jonathan Eyal, director of studies at Britain's Royal United Services 
Institute, said Western leaders believed they reached an understanding with 
Russia at last month's OSCE summit in Turkey that if Moscow waged its 
Chechnya campaign with a low profile, Western criticism would be muted. 


``With this threat to carpet-bomb Grozny, the Russians have broken the tacit 
agreement we thought we had in Istanbul and made it impossible for us to keep 
quiet,'' he said. 


Eyal said Western governments had hoped to revive cooperation with Russia 
after the Duma vote but that now looked impossible for a long time, with aid 
to Moscow bound to be an issue in the looming U.S. presidential campaign. 


``There will be no decisive punishment of Russia over Chechnya but it will be 
very difficult to build public support for more constructive engagement,'' he 
said. 


*******


#3
Rossiiskaya Gazeta
December 7, 1999
WE WON'T CEDE TO TERRORISTS AN INCH OF OUR LAND
Statement of President Boris Yeltsin of the Russian Federation 
on the North Caucasus Policy

Today our country is waging a heavy fight against
international terrorism which has impudently challenged the
peoples of Russia. It is a fight for the lives of Russian
citizens, many of them killed in Moscow and Dagestan, in
Volgodonsk and Buinaksk. It is a fight for the preservation of
Russia's national sovereignty and territorial integrity. And
at the same time, it is part of the international community's
effort to combat international terrorism. I am convinced that
those in the West who, for some reason, have so far failed to
realize it, will soon see for themselves that we are right.
International terrorism knows no borders; it has taken aim at
the whole world.
Due to the heroic efforts of soldiers and officers of the
army, the interior troops and those of other power
departments, a serious damage has been done to the terrorists
and illegal armed units. The bandits have been either
destroyed or ousted to Chechnya's mountainous part. The bulk
of the territory of that republic, which has been and will
continue to be a constituent entity of the Russian Federation,
is already controlled by the federal authorities, including
with support of the local residents.
As the resident of the Russian Federation, I assure you
with a full sense of responsibility that the second stage of
the anti-terrorist operation in the North Caucasus has been
terminated, and successfully, too. The goals set have been
met; we are going on to the third one.
Here are the key goals of the third stage:
Political. The restoration of the local government system
which would function properly.
Economic. The restoration of the region's economy. People
must have jobs and receive their pay to provide for their
families. There must be heating and electricity in their
homes.
Social. The creation of an environment for the forced
migrants' return. Schools and hospitals must be opened;
pensions and social allowances paid on time. Life must be
brought back to normal - the people have suffered way too
long.
A giant work is ahead, because the terrorists have left
behind a totally devastated land. The infrastructure has been
destroyed and industrial facilities plundered. The whole of
Russia is willing to aid and is already aiding the people of
Chechnya in liquidating the aftermath of the bloodshed and
cruelties done by the terrorists. It is important that the
Chechens proper join in the restoration process. It is their
land; they must restore it together.
The terrorists have suffered great damage and losses, but
renounced not their criminal designs. New armed sorties are
still possible. New provocations can be made. Therefore, the
military part of the operation will be continued depending on
the situation and on the task of exterminating terrorism in
the North Caucasus.
I have made a decision to issue a decree on the permanent
deployment of a general armed forces unit in the Chechen
Republic. This, of course, will be done considering Russia's
obligations under the adapted Treaty on the Conventional
Forces in Europe. All the quantitative flank restrictions on
military hardware stipulated thereby will be observed.
We know perfectly well that there are people in the
terrorists units who have been involved by force or by crook.
I urge them: please stop and think, put down your weapons and
return to peace life.
I have supported the proposal of the Russian Federation's
Cabinet on developing a draft resolution of the State Duma
granting amnesty to those who have not committed any grave
crimes.
Russians! This country has more than once undergone
serious trials and never lost face. Let international
terrorists of all sorts bear it in mind always. This time no
exception, we won't cede to them an inch of our land. There
shouldn't be any doubt that peace, security and tranquillity
will be eventually established in the North Caucasus. 


******


#4
MASKHADOV'S Family Stay in Russia under FSB Protection-Putin.
By Igor Borisenko 


MOSCOW, December 7 (Itar-Tass) - The evacuated family of Chechen President 
Aslan Maskhadov is staying in a region of Russia under protection of the 
Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on 
Tuesday. 


"The heads of bandit formations and the so-called political leadership of 
Chechnya have already evacuated their kin to a safe place. Even the person 
who calls himself the president of Chechnya sent his family to another 
Russian region," Putin told journalists after a meeting of the Security 
Council. 


Putin did not disclose where the family are staying. He added that 
Maskhadov's wife Kusama, his son Anzor and daughter Fatima "are under the 
protection of the FSB and feel safe." According to the Russian premier, 
Maskhadov had sent his family to another region of Russia before Grozny was 
encircled by the federal troops. 


Head of the FSB public relations department Alexander Zdanovich on Tuesday 
told Tass that "some time ago, Maskhadov's wife and some other relatives of 
the Chechen president arrived in Ingushetia at the invitation of Ingush 
leader Ruslan Aushev, but the president of Ingushetia was reported to have 
failed to ensure their security." According to Zdanovich, "over the whole 
period of Maskhadov's relatives' stay in Ingushetia, Aushev did not visit 
them in person." 


Zdanovich further said that "Maskhadov's family have therefore left 
Ingushetia for another region of Russia, where the FSB has been ensuring 
their security, ready to check any provocations possibly being schemed 
against Maskhadov's relatives by Chechen terrorists." 


******


#5
Financial Times (UK)
7 December 1999
[for personal use only]
Comment / Personal View 
Blood and war form the true IMF audit 
It is Russia's war in Chechnya that should delay loans, rather than questions
over financial safeguards, writes David J. Kramer 
The author is an associate director of the Russian programme at the Carnegie
Endowment 


>From 1994 to 1996, when opposition to the first war in Chechnya was strong
within Russia, Bill Clinton, the US president, sided with the Kremlin by
comparing Boris Yeltsin to Abraham Lincoln and the Chechen war to the American
Civil War. 


Today, tepid US criticism of the Kremlin's renewed offensive in Chechnya runs
counter to the strong support in Russia for the government's actions. 


European leaders have been more outspoken in expressing their opposition to
Russia's brutal campaign. Yet the criticism at last month's summit of the
Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe in Istanbul was
overshadowed by a defiant Mr Yeltsin, who told the west to mind its own
business. The leadership in Moscow had decided there was little the west could
do to force Russia to change course. 


Sadly, they are right. This is not Kosovo and Serbia; western military
intervention is out of the question. 


Nevertheless, we can do something to demonstrate moral leadership and ensure
that we do not fund Moscow's brutality. The Clinton administration is
reportedly considering action on two fronts: holding up the next $640m
instalment of the International Monetary Fund's loan to Russia and delaying a
$500m loan to Tyumen Oil Company from the Export-Import Bank, a US government
trade promotion agency. Mr Clinton should follow through on both threats. 


The case against the Ex-Im loan is clear. The Clinton administration should
not
be promoting trade while bombs fall in Chechnya. The loan to Tyumen Oil should
never have been considered at all: Tyumen has been involved in a nasty dispute
with BP-Amoco over control of another Russian oil enterprise, and no US
government agency should be involved with a Russian enterprise engaged in
flagrant asset stripping and the trampling of shareholder rights. 


Suspension of the International Monetary Fund loan raises more complicated
issues. The current programme, agreed in April, began in late July with the
release of the first of seven $640m instalments. Western governments, anxious
to placate Russia during Nato's bombing in Kosovo and eager to help Moscow
avert a default on its foreign debt, pressured the IMF to resume lending. The
entire $4.5bn is to stay with the Fund to help Russia pay its debts to the
lending agency and is not transferred to Moscow. But the second instalment,
originally slated for release in October, has been held up pending an
investigation into alleged Russian diversions of past IMF loans. 


Since the IMF resumed its support for Russia in July, Russia has faced
changing
sets of criteria for the release of the second tranche, with calls for more
audits and safeguards against misuse of the current loan programme. But moving
the goalposts has only succeeded in annoying Russian officials unnecessarily.
We should simply tell the Russians they are not getting the next instalment -
not because of failure to meet variable criteria, but because of what
Russia is doing in Chechnya. 


The IMF's money is fungible and would free up an equivalent $640m in Russia's
coffers to continue funding the war in Chechnya. 


Michel Camdessus, the outgoing IMF chief, recently hinted that Russia's
campaign against Chechnya could lead to suspension of the IMF money. Moscow
reacted with outrage. Sergei Stepashin, a former prime minister, called Mr
Camdessus's comments "political blackmail". In the west, similar reservations
have been registered about "politicising" the Fund. 


Such criticisms ring hollow if one looks at how the IMF has recently dealt
with
Russia. On three occasions, the Fund, under political pressure from western
governments, went ahead with multibillion dollar loan packages even though
Russia had not met the IMF's economic criteria: in March 1996 (three months
before Russia's presidential election); in July 1998 (with Russia on the verge
of economic collapse); and in April 1999 (during Nato's campaign against
Kosovo, which Russia opposed). The difference now is that the Fund would be
suspending, not releasing, funds for political reasons. 


In the light of Russia's widespread violation of human rights through its
indiscriminate bombing of Chechnya, it would be naive, if not unprincipled, to
suggest that IMF decisions should be made in a political vacuum. Suspending
the
IMF loan would undoubtedly raise tensions with Russia, but given that there
are
few other measures the west can take to register its outrage, it is a price
worth paying. 


Given the lack of influence and leverage we have over Russia, we should not
pretend that suspending the IMF and Ex-Im loans will effect a change in
Russian
policy toward Chechnya. At the same time, we should not maintain a
business-as-usual approach to Moscow. 


The Clinton administration abandoned its moral leadership role in the 1994-96
war. It should not repeat that mistake this time. 


*****


#6
Moscow Times
December 8, 1999 
Election Presses Army to Take Grozny 
By Simon Saradzhyan
Staff Writer


Russian troops may try to establish formal control over the Chechen capital 
in time for the Kremlin to claim a major success before State Duma elections 
Dec. 19, experts said Tuesday. 


Taking Grozny quickly, as the military sees it, would not only boost the 
fortunes of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the pro-Kremlin Unity bloc he 
supports in the parliamentary elections. It would prevent a new, less hawkish 
Duma from calling for a truce and peace talks with the Chechen separatists 
before the military had been able to finish the job it started and claim 
victory. 


Russian aircraft showered Grozny with leaflets Monday warning all remaining 
civilians and militants to leave the city by Saturday or face heavy bombings. 


There is no question the armed forces intend to flatten Grozny with bombs, 
rockets and artillery shells to pave the way for the infantry to march into 
the Chechen capital, said Alexander Pikayev of the Carnegie Moscow Center. 


Putin wants to see Russian commanders posing in front of television cameras 
with a Russian flag flying over the ruins of the presidential palace in the 
heart of Grozny, Pikayev said in a telephone interview. 


Both Pikayev and Alexander Iskandryan of the Center for Caucasian Studies 
noted that not only Putin and his supporters, but Russian commanders 
themselves may want to see the fall of Grozny before a new Duma is elected. 


The elections could see the Kremlin's opponents win a majority in the Duma 
and try either to unseat or undermine the prime minister once the lower 
chamber convenes in January, according to Pikayev. 


A weakening of Putin, the strongest proponent of Russia's military campaign 
in Chechnya, could force the Kremlin to stop the offensive and start talks 
with Chechen rebels in what Russian commanders would see as an intolerable 
humiliation, Pikayev said. 


Up to 50,000 civilians remain in Grozny, but some are too old or crippled to 
flee, or unable to afford a trip out of the city. 


Iskandryan said civilians who fail to leave will be much more likely to be 
killed by Russian bombs and shells than the Chechen fighters, who hide in 
well-fortified bunkers inside Grozny and freely move in and out of the city. 


Pikayev said Russian forces may use Tu-22 Backfires for carpet bombing of 
Chechnya. To destroy the die-hard rebels holed up in Grozny, they could use 
such powerful ammunition as aerosol bombs and special thermal-ballistic 
projectiles, which create air pressure strong enough to cause lungs to 
explode, he said. 


Once Grozny is flattened, small, mobile units of Russian infantry may start 
crawling in, stopping every time they are fired at to have aviation and 
artillery wipe out the pockets of resistance they have bumped into, Pikayev 
said. 


This tactic would allow the military to avoid the heavy casualties that 
occurred during the stormings of Grozny in the previous Chechen war, he said. 
Russian commanders have said they would not storm Grozny, but they have not 
disclosed their tactics. 


Pikayev said units of Chechen volunteers under the command of Beslan 
Gantamirov, the former mayor of Grozny and deputy prime minister of a 
pro-Moscow Chechen government who was serving a prison term for embezzlement 
before President Boris Yeltsin pardoned him, could be included in the taking 
of Grozny for propaganda purposes. 


Seizing the city would allow Moscow to put a puppet Chechen government in the 
Chechen capital and claim a political victory, said Makhmut Gareyev, head of 
the Military Academy of Sciences. 


Control of Grozny would also give federal authorities a major bargaining chip 
in negotiations that Moscow will have to start with Chechen leader Aslan 
Maskhadov sooner or later, Gareyev said. 


The seizure of Grozny is seen as a military as well as a political necessity, 
Pikayev said. Without clearing the rebels out of Grozny, Russian troops 
cannot afford to advance farther south, he said. 


Both Pikayev and Iskandryan acknowledged, however, that some if not most of 
the estimated 2,000 or more Chechen rebels now holed up in Grozny could sneak 
out of the city in the course of bombings to return and stage night raids on 
Russian troops once they are deployed in the Chechen capital. 


Russian troops claim to have almost entire encircled the city with only a few 
corridors left in the south, but this ring is too porous to allow them to 
control the city. 


Russian commanders do not have enough resources to establish full permanent 
control over Grozny to guarantee the safety of a puppet government, 
Iskandryan and Pikayev said. 


Pikayev cited the storming of Berlin by Soviet troops in 1945. Despite as 
many as 1 million Soviet soldiers encircling the city, some Nazi leaders 
managed to escape. 


Also, in the previous Chechen campaign of 1994-1996, Russian troops 
repeatedly claimed full control of Grozny only to retreat when faced with 
sudden raids of mobile groups of Chechen rebels. 


"They will not be able to fully control Grozny, but they still can have a 
Russian flag flying in the center of the city be shown on TV screens," 
Iskandryan said. 


An inability to fully control Grozny could lead Russian leaders eventually to 
claim that the city is too ravaged by war to be restored and announce that 
the capital of Chechnya is being moved to Gudermes, where the population is 
less hostile to Russian rule, Iskandryan said. 


*****


#7
Date: Mon, 06 Dec 1999
From: Bmilanovic@worldbank.org (Branko Milanovic)
Subject: the new James Bond


I am just back from watching --with my kids-- the new James Bond. I am not
a fan of endowing with greater significance than they deserve things like
Mickey
Mouse or James Bond, but I could not not notice the following. There is a 100
percent overlap between the good guys (and Westerners) and the bad guys (and
Easterners). I am not absolutely sure but I thought that although this was a
regularity in earlier movies (understandibly because after all James Bond is
the main hero and he is British, so one would expect that most of the
Westerners
would be good guys), there were always a few cross-overs between the two sides
just to provide some variety. But now there is not a single exception. All
various and undefined shades of Russians, Kazakhs, Azeris, and (it seems)
Greeks
are exclusively bad. There is only one "sympatico" Russian guy, but he too is
bad because he is, for the most of the movie, in cahoots with the main "meany"
and is an amoral casino owner. The most interesting is the appearance of an
American women among the bad guys in Kazakhstan. Just when I was expecting
that
there may be one exception to the "we good, you bad" stereotype, it turned out
that, inexplicably, when an explosition happens, our hero, Mr. Bond, leaps to
save her, and from that moment on she becomes infallibly devoted to the
side of
the good. As I said, the epiphany is inexplicable because prior to that
moment
she gives no intimation at all that she may not be as vicious as the rest
of the
crowd. Hence we have to interpret Mr. Bond's sudden decision to protect the
lady
on purely ethnic grounds; not even amorous as at the time he does not seem
especially interested in her. So, what does the movie tell us about the
producers reading of the mood of the masses?


******


#8
The Times (UK)
December 7 1999
Letter
The civilian victims of Chechnya


>From the Acting Director of Amnesty International 
Sir, In his account of the conflict in Chechnya (Comment, December 3), 
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin refers to fears that Chechen fighters 
may use civilians as a "human shield", preventing them leaving a heavily 
bombarded Grozny. However, mounting evidence suggests that Russian military 
forces have themselves signally failed to respect basic humanitarian 
standards (the Chechens may themselves be breaching them). 


Amnesty International recently collected testimony at the Chechnya/ 
Ingushetia border from people fleeing the conflict. The testimonies strongly 
suggest that Russian military operations have included direct attacks on 
civilians - the bombing of civilian centres such as a bus station, hospital 
and marketplace cannot be con-sidered a by-product of a campaign to defeat 
Chechen terrorists. 


Before making promises for prosperity in the future, Amnesty International 
would like to see Prime Minister Putin urgently reducing the number of 
civilian casualties and respecting the human rights of Chechen civilians. 


What can be done to achieve this? The Russian military must be pressured 
through political means to restore full protection rights to all 
non-combatants; in other words to anyone reasonably identifiable as a 
civilian. 


In February 1996, Russia's entry into the Council of Europe came with a 
commitment to "respect strictly the provisions of international humanitarian 
law". The UK's part should be unrelenting governmental pressure on the 
Russian Federation, Chechen leaders and those to whom the combatants must 
listen. 


Without evidence of that international pressure it really will look as if in 
Chechnya human rights are being sacrificed to a new bloody realpolitik. 


Yours faithfully,
FIONA WEIR,
Acting Director, 
Amnesty International,
99-119 Rosebery Avenue, EC1R 4RE.
December 3. 


*******


#9
Date: Tue, 07 Dec 1999 
From: "Michele Ann Berdy" <maberdy@ebony.ro>
Subject: Chernomyrdin quote


Hi, David. In # 3666 Kevin McNamara asked about the Chernomyrdin quote
khotelos
kak mozhno luchshe, a poluchilos kak vsegda we wanted things to turn out as
well as possible, but they turned out the way they always do. I first heard
this quote attributed to a Duma deputy named Viktor Sheinis, but it was either
coined or used so famously by Chernomyrdin that it s his now. I don t recall
what it was in relation to, but it has become a wry statement of the Russian
tendency to muck things up. It has entered the language and is very widely
used.


In a totally unrelated aside I am writing from Bucharest, which is plastered
with huge billboards for the Russian company Lukoil in which Larry Hagman
as JR
flogs their motor oil products in Romanian. This gives me a headache. The
scuttlebutt was that Lukoil had a hard time finding partners here, since
Romanians generally don t like or trust Russians but finally cut a deal with
their last-choice partners. I haven t seen or heard anything about the alleged
arms shipments to Georgia from Romania via Moscow that story doesn t seem to
have generated much interest here. 


********


#10
Moscow Tribune
7 December 1999
STRANGE HAPPENINGS AT THE IMF
It Probably Needs an Audit
By Stanislav Menshikov (menschivok@globalxs.nl)


Looking at the proud appearances of the top bananas at the IMF, one might
come to believe that they, like Caesar's wife, are beyond suspicion..
However, strange happenings at the Fund and the World Bank (WB) raise
serious doubts as to whether that is indeed so. If two of their top
executives -- Michel Camdessus, managing director of the IMF and Joseph
Stiglitz, vice-president of the WB -- are being kicked out before their
terms expire and for no evident reason, then it is only logical to start
smelling a rat. 


It is an open secret that these resignations were initiated by Larry
Summers, the new US Secretary of the Treasury who was not seeing eye to eye
with both men for quite a while. When I was invited a year ago (along with
Oleg Bogomolov) to a seminar on the Russian economy at the WB, our principal
opponent was Summers, then under-secretary. We were critical of IMF policies
in Russia, while Summers claimed they were just what the patient needed.
Stiglitz, who chaired the meeting, agreed with us and disagreed with
Summers. Later on, Stiglitz formulated his objections to the Summers line
versus Russia in his now famous paper. According to him, market reforms in
Russia advocated by the IMF with Summers's participation were all wrong.
While Stiglitz's academic credentials are way higher than Summer's, it was
clear that he would have to quit if and when Summers was appointed Secretary
of the Treasury. It was not a a case of personal incompatibility but
disagreement of principle on policy towards Russia.


The Camdessus resignation and its connection with Russia were not so
clear-cut. As titular head of IMF he bears overall responsibility for the
harm that was brought about to Russia through wrong advice and otherwise.
Earlier this year, he sounded more favourable towards new loans to Russia
but more recently made a turnaround linking financial aid with events in
Chechnya. His resignation was due to other, more peculiar circumstances.


When the Bank of New York scandal first blew up this fall, it became clear
to FBI investigators that IMF money was also involved. It turned out that
officers in charge of the Russian credits at the Fund had discovered the
massive leakage of funds from the multibillion loan almost immediately after
it was granted in July 1998. Their reports, however, were ignored at the
higher level. Moreover, Stanley Fisher, second man in the Fund hierarchy,
went to Moscow and personally certified that everything was OK. The billions
disappeared within three weeks leading to default and devaluation. Most of
the money was sold to Russian banks prior to the crisis at an absurdly low
exchange rate and later ended up in off-share havens via the Bank of New
York. Fisher knew what was happening as well as Summers and his men at the
Treasury. Later on, Anatoly Chubais, a close buddy of Summers, confirmed
that he participated in "fooling" the Fund. But the word "fooling" is hardly
adequate. What emerged was a case of gross mishandling of billions of
dollars (which the IMF is now demanding in repayment. Stolen money to be
returned? Ha-ha!)


When these facts started coming to light this fall, Camdessus was obviously
concerned. Fearing potential harm to the Fund's prestige he was reluctant to
make that story public. But he apparently hinted to his US colleagues that
their role in this affair was far from acceptable. However, because IMF is
practically controlled by the US Treasury, it was Camdessus, rather than the
perpetrators, who was squeezed out. 


Summers's victory led to the further tightening of the screws on IMF
policies towards Russia. The Chechnya events came in handy, but were not
decisive. Clinton himself promised in Istanbul that Russia would still get
its second tranche despite Russia's position. But the US President was
overruled by the powerful group in Washington that is behind Summers and
other architects of hard-line policies vis-a-vis Russia.


Of course, the official pretext for refusing the second tranche -- Russia's
"failure" to fulfil the Fund's additional requirements -- is sheer
hypocrisy. The IMF is perfectly well aware that the Central Bank of Russia
(CBR) cannot dispose of its foreign subsidiaries on a moment's notice.
Neither are there strong legal grounds for requiring an audit of the
Sberbank which is a judicial entity separate from the CBR. The Fund's
"dissatisfaction" with Russian export restrictions on fuel is also misplaced
because excessive exports create domestic shortages and additional
inflationary pressures. In any case, demanding such conditionality for money
that will never reach Moscow in the first place is financial absurdity. The
real reasons for refusing the tranche are clearly 
political. Money was not available while Primakov was prime minister. It is
now Mr. Putin's turn to savour Washington's displeasure. 


Whether Russia could well do without IMF financing is an issue that has to be 
discussed separately. But the strange happenings at that
institution.(described above) raise questions as to whether a serious
investigation of the Fund's own accounting and monitoring practices is not
in order.


*******


#11
DUMA FIGURE CALLS FOR IGNORING CLINTON CRITICISM


MOSCOW. Dec 7 (Interfax) - The Russian authorities should in no
way react to the comments of President Bill Clinton on Chechnya, key
figure in the Russian Liberal Democratic Party and chairman of the Duma
Geopolitical Committee Alexei Mitrofanov has said.
Clinton strongly criticized Russia for its Monday ultimatum to the
population of Grozny.
In this context Mitrofanov said Russia "should in no way react to
this statement and do exactly as the U.S. did when it ignored our
statements on NATO enlargement and the situation in Kosovo."
Russia "is equal to the U.S. in its nuclear potential and stores of
war chemicals, including binary weapons," he said. "We are the same kind
of super power and we should not be listening to foreigners telling us
how we should be destroying gangsters in Chechnya," he said.
Mitrofanov said the operation in Chechnya should be brought to a
logical end. "The Americans themselves have double standards on such
matters," he stressed. The U.S. leadership "has always proceeded from
the principle that the life of one American soldier is more precious
than the lives of tens and hundreds of thousands of people in Iraq and
other countries where the U.S. has been conducting its military
operations during the past few years," he said.
Mitrofanov ironically invited the U.S. to help Russia destroy
terrorists in Chechnya "by other methods, if they dislike ours."
"If the Americans are ready to send their marines there to destroy
terrorists, well, let them do so, we have nothing against it," he said.


******


#12
New York Times
7 December 1999
Here is the text of a leaflet to civilians dropped by Russian forces on
Monday on Grozny, the besieged Chechen capital, as translated by The New 
York Times.


Residents of the city of Grozny! Russian troops are completing the
encirclement of the city. In order to avoid civilian casualties, we propose
that you leave the city of Grozny before December 11, 1999. Use any means
possible. The Command of the Combined Group of Russian Forces has set up a
checkpoint for civilians in Pervomayskoye, and a tent camp has been set
up so
you can settle in Znamenskoye. You are guaranteed all constitutional rights.
After the completion of the counter-terrorism operation you will be able to
return to your homes. Do not give in to the provocations of the terrorists
and the bandits. Do not allow them to use you for their purposes. Only in
this way will you be able to avoid death and save your city. Remember,
preservation of life and the provision of security for the civilian
population is the main task of the Russian troops. 


*******


#13
ANALYSIS-Angry Russia ignores ``hypocritical'' West
By Gareth Jones

MOSCOW, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Russia feels too embittered and betrayed by the 
West to listen to its criticism of the Chechnya campaign, and certainly not 
this side of a parliamentary election due on December 19, political analysts 
said on Tuesday. 


They said Western countries had largely used up their credit in post-Soviet 
Russia, whose citizens now stand firmly behind Prime Minister Vladimir 
Putin's military offensive aimed at crushing Islamic militants in the 
breakaway Chechen republic. 


At best, the West's criticism is ineffectual because no one in Russia expects 
serious repercussions like economic sanctions. At worst, they said, it is 
counter-productive as it fans populist xenophobia and makes compromise appear 
as weakness. 


Putin, now Russia's most popular politician and President Boris Yeltsin's own 
preferred successor, repeated on Tuesday Moscow's line that it wants a 
political settlement in Chechnya but must first defeat what it calls 
``terrorists and bandits.'' 


``If some representatives of foreign states are that worried by events in the 
North Caucasus they should instead use their influence not only to impose 
pressure on the Russian leadership. Let them use their influence to free 
hostages in Chechnya,'' Putin said. 


Moscow blames the Chechen rebels for a series of bomb blasts in Russian towns 
and for destabilising the North Caucasus. It also wants to curb rampant 
lawlessness in the region. 


PM BOOSTED BY RUSSIANS' ANTI-WESTERN MOOD 


``With elections (to the State Duma lower house) just round the corner, 
domestic factors predominate right now among Russia's politicians,'' said 
Alexei Malashenko of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 
think-tank. 


``Putin is playing the anti-Western card to very good effect,'' he said, 
adding that disillusionment with the West had been growing among ordinary 
Russians for some time. 


``Maybe after the Duma election, Russia might soften its stance (on 
Chechnya),'' Malashenko added. 


Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy head of the U.S.A. and Canada Institute, said the 
West, especially the United States, merited much of the blame for the current 
sorry state of affairs. 


``First the West tried to lecture us on how to run our economy. That failed 
completely,'' he said, echoing oft-heard criticism of the International 
Monetary Fund's policy, which stresses boosting tax revenues and control of 
the money supply while ignoring industrial production and wider social costs. 


``Now the West is lecturing us on Chechnya, but there is no trust in its 
advice, no feeling that the advice has Russia's interests at heart,'' 
Kremenyuk said. 


He repeated the criticism of Russian government officials that the West was 
guilty of double standards on Chechnya, saying NATO had broken international 
law by bombing Yugoslavia to force it to withdraw its troops from Kosovo. 
Moscow fiercely opposed the Western alliance's air strikes against Belgrade. 


Kremenyuk also mentioned U.S. unilateral strikes against targets in 
Afghanistan and Sudan last year after the bombing of two U.S. embassies in 
Africa, and continued U.S. and British bombing of Iraq in a row over 
international arms inspectors. 


MOSCOW SAYS NOBODY TO TALK TO IN CHECHNYA 


Analysts said Russia also faced the practical difficulty of a lack of 
reliable partners to negotiate with in Chechnya. Aslan Maskhadov, elected 
Chechen president in 1997, was in the hands of the rebel commanders and 
unwilling or unable to oppose them, they said. 


Add to this potent brew of factors Russians' deeply-felt resentment about 
loss of empire and influence following the fall of Soviet communism, and 
their current disinclination to listen to the West was easy to understand, 
the analysts said. 


``What comes after Chechnya? The Baltic, Georgia, Azerbaijan? The army has 
now become a factor in Russia's political life and may start making its own 
demands,'' Kremenyuk said. 


Echoing that fear, Sergei Mikhailov of the Russian Socio-Political Centre 
said the army was still smarting from its defeat in the 1994-96 Chechen war, 
which ended with the withdrawal of Russian troops from the region. 


``That left a deep wound among the military,'' he said. 


The army felt it had been cheated of victory in 1996 by Russia's politicians, 
who agreed to a truce due to fear of public hostility to that war, analysts 
said. 


``Russia's imperial pride has been repeatedly trampled on, a bit like Germany 
after World War One,'' Mikhailov said. 


``Now it has found a cause around which both the public and the political 
elite can rally,'' he said. 


Few voices have been raised against the current campaign, although former 
Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov -- a veteran diplomat -- on Tuesday accused 
members of Yeltsin's entourage of seeking to isolate Russia over Chechnya in 
order to shore up their own position. Primakov said this was a dangerous 
trend. 


The only other senior politician to speak out against the war mania sweeping 
Russia -- Grigory Yavlinsky of the liberal Yabloko party -- was branded a 
traitor by former privatisation chief Anatoly Chubais for proposing peace 
talks with Maskhadov. 


*******


#14
U.S. eavesdrop backs claims of Russian losses
By MARTIN SIEFF
UPI National Security Editor
WASHINGTON, Dec. 6 (UPI) - Russian army radio traffic monitored by U.
S. intelligence supports claims that last week the Russians suffered
their most serious casualties in the current Chechnya conflict.
On the same day that a North Caucasus political leader alleged the
Russian army lost more than 200 dead in a single engagement, Russian
troops suffered heavy casualties in another engagement, according to
monitored radio traffic, well-placed U.S. intelligence sources told
United Press International on Monday.
The sources said that U.S. signals intelligence, which is run by the
giant National Security Agency based in Fort Meade, Md., intercepted a
call on Friday from a Russian helicopter transport pilot saying he was
carrying at least 60 Russian soldiers seriously wounded in a single
engagement.
The pilot went on to say that he could not take more wounded in his
helicopter, one U.S. source said.
The U.S. intelligence sources said American military intelligence
analysts believed the radio conversation referred to a clash Friday
during heavy fighting when Russian army units were seeking to strengthen
their encirclement of the Chechen capital Grozny.
The monitored conversation took place the same day that a Russian
unit was reported as surrounded - and then wiped out - by Chechen
guerrillas in heavy fighting around the town of Urus-Martan, 12 miles
southwest of the virtually surrounded Chechen capital Grozny.
News of that second engagement was reported later Friday by Ali
Dudarov, deputy interior minister of the neighboring Russian autonomous
republic of Ingushetia. But it then was denied by Russian First Deputy
Chief of Staff Valery Manikov.
Dudarov claimed that Chechen guerrillas surrounded and then overran
the Russian unit, killing 200 soldiers in the fighting. They captured
another 50 alive, but then put them to death by slitting their throats,
he said.
General Manikov later described Dudarov's comments as lies and said
he had become "a mouthpiece for terrorists and bandits," according to
the Interfax news agency.
More than 100,000 people are believed to have died in the first
Chechen War of 1994-96. Russian human rights activist Yelena Bonner,
speaking before the Helsinki Commission on Human Rights, has put that
death toll as high as 130,000.
U.S. intelligence sources said that prior to last week's fighting,
total Russian combat dead in the three months of military operations so
far in Chechnya were estimated at around 500 dead. If Dudarov's account
of the casualties suffered proves accurate, that single engagement could
have raised by about 50 percent the number of military fatalities
suffered by the Russian army in Chechnya.
Russia has concentrated 100,000 men in the North Caucasus to counter
Chechen independence, three times as large a force as tried to conquer
the dissident region in the 1994-96 war. Up to now, Russian military
casualties have been relatively low, thanks to the army's reliance on
its overwhelmingly superior artillery and aircraft-delivered firepower.
However, Russian casualties are expected to rise quickly if the
Russian army tries to storm Grozny over the next two weeks, as it
threatened to do in leaflets dropped on the city Monday.
The U.S. intelligence sources said U.S. intelligence and military
analysts were predicting that Russia would face "intensive" guerrilla
warfare in the region even after it crushed organized resistance in
Grozny.
So far, the Russian army has occupied the rural northern one-third of
Chechnya. But it has not attempted to occupy the mountainous southern
part of the region in the Caucasus Mountains, allowing the local
Chechens to exploit their superior knowledge of the region, and
experience in hand-to-hand and guerrilla combat, against the under-
trained and inexperienced young Russian conscript soldiers.
******


#15
Zhirinovsky to Appeal for Putting off Duma Election to 2000.


MOSCOW, December 7 (Itar-Tass) - The leader of the ultranationalist Liberal 
Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), Vladimir Zhirinovsky, said on Tuesday he 
might ask the Supreme court to put off a general election from December 1999 
to June 2000. 


Zhirinovsky told Itar-Tass that the December 19 vote should be postponed "so 
that it coincide with the election of the president of the Russian Federation 
to save money." 


Also, he said he might lodge such an appeal due to registration problems the 
LDPR has recently run into and been placed in unequal conditions compared to 
other participants in the parliamentary election. 


Besides, he said he would file an appeal to the Supreme Court on Tuesday to 
get restored on the LDPR election list after the Central Election Commission 
(CEC) crossed him off last week. 


The LDPR's vote seems to be split because there are now two LDPR blocs. The 
CEC initially refused to register the first one on the ground that some of 
its top members had provided false information about their incomes. 


But that decision was overridden by the Supreme Court which said that false 
information about incomes was not reason enough to withdraw a bloc from the 
election race. 


However, before the court came up with its ruling, the LDPR had registered 
another bloc, named Zhirinovsky's bloc. 


On Thursday, the CEC restored the LDPR's initial lists, leaving out only 
Zhirinovsky himself for providing "untrue information about his property". 


******


#16
Russia war becoming crime against humanity-Canada 
December 7, 1999 
By David Ljunggren


OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada said Tuesday Russia's campaign in rebel Chechnya 
was on the verge of becoming a crime against humanity and suggested foreign 
aid could be cut off if Moscow carried out its threat to destroy the region's 
capital.


Foreign Minister Lloyd Axworthy said the West needed to put as much pressure 
as possible on Russia to withdraw its ultimatum calling for all civilians to 
leave Grozny by Saturday or face the prospect of obliteration.


Itar-Tass news agency said most people in the city were unaware of the 
deadline set by Russian forces as part of their three-month campaign against 
separatist Islamic forces. Up to 40,000 people are said to be trapped in 
Grozny.


"I think the ultimatum they put to Grozny is unacceptable and it's really 
getting to the point where it's crossing the line into potential crimes 
against humanity," Axworthy told reporters after a cabinet meeting.


"You could have 30,000 people there -- very old, disabled, sick, who can't 
move -- who are subject to major bombing and so I think it's very important 
in the next couple of days that we try to put a restraint on that."


Canada has had trouble making its voice heard on Chechnya, in part because of 
comments Axworthy made in late September on the need for Moscow to deal 
forcefully with terrorist attacks. His words were replayed repeatedly on 
Russian television.


Moscow, which was forced to stand by and watch NATO air attacks on its old 
ally Yugoslavia earlier this year, has shrugged off foreign criticism of the 
Chechen offensive.


Asked what the West could do to express its discontent, Axworthy said: "Well, 
the Russians certainly have over the years been very reliant on Western aid."


British Foreign Minister Robin Cook warned Moscow that the European Union 
could review financial and technical help if the attack on Grozny went ahead.


Axworthy said he would be writing to Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov 
later in the day to express Canada's concern.


"There will be an opportunity (for talks with the Russians) next week -- Mr 
Ivanov will be at the Group of Eight foreign ministers' meeting in Berlin -- 
and will certainly be facing the music at that time," he said.


"I think what would be important now, in the next 24 or 36 hours, is to see 
what can be done to halt or change, or restrain the Russian action as it 
applies to the ultimatum which was given yesterday."


He also rejected the idea that the West's attacks on Kosovo had given Moscow 
the right to do what it wanted in Chechnya.


"We went through that (the Kosovo campaign) after almost two years of active 
discussions and negotiations. We haven't had the same run-up period (in 
Chechnya)," he said. 


*******