April 3, 1998  
This Date's Issues:    2130• 2131  2132 

Johnson's Russia LIst (list two)
#2132
3 April 1998
davidjohnson@erols.com

********

United States Information Agency
Foreign Media Reaction
April 3, 1998
RUSSIA: HAGGLING OVER NEW GOVERNMENT; A TROIKA FOR EUROPE

The news that the Russian Duma had postponed today's confirmation hearings
for Sergei Kiriyenko, President Yeltsin's nominee for prime minister, added
to a sense in the world press that the battle of wills between Mr. Yeltsin
and the parliament is prolonging Russia's political limbo and holding up
much-needed economic reforms. Pointing to the plight of many Russian
workers and pensioners, right-of-center Die Welt of Berlin said, "The
incapability of the state to fulfill the fundamental right of the
individual for payment for his work has become a synonym for the
incapability of the Yeltsin state to resolve the most urgent problems in
the country." These were other principal themes in media reaction:

'IS BORIS STILL RUSSIA'S BEST MAN?'--Analysts again are concerned about
stability in the Kremlin, given Mr. Yeltsin's frequent bouts of illnesses
and his "erratic" behavior--most shockingly made evident by the March 23
firing of his cabinet. Many emphasized, as did London's liberal Guardian,
that, until a prime minister is confirmed by the Duma, the Russian
constitution is silent over who would succeed Mr. Yeltsin if he "died or
became incapacitated." But even if such a crisis did not befall Russia,
more and more opinion-makers judged that Mr. Yeltsin is, in the words of
Melbourne's liberal Age, "increasingly an obstacle to Russia's taking its
place as a stable and prosperous player internationally."

BORIS'S NEW CHOICE FOR PREMIER--While journalists outside Russia adopted a
wait-and-see attitude about Acting Prime Minister Kiriyenko's capacity to
carry out the task of running Russia, most Russian ones not working for the
government press were critical. Moscow's reformist Izvestia, resigned to
Mr. Kiriyenko as "our only chance to see a light at the end of the tunnel
in this century," nevertheless catalogued the weaknesses it perceived in
him, including his lack of "political support." Centrist Nezavisimaya
Gazeta worried that "his being too young and lacking political influence
may not, and most likely will not, help him deal with Western leaders."
Reformist, business-oriented weekly VEK stressed that the young
"technocrat" might repeat the mistakes of economic reformers Chubais and
Nemtsov, who failed because of "a policy based entirely on economic
considerations, caring little about the interests of different classes and
social groups." Reformist Segodnya, however, told its readers not to
"underestimate Kiriyenko."
BORIS'S EUROPEAN TROIKA--The Russian leader's inaugural meeting March 25 of
the much-ballyhooed European troika with German Chancellor Kohl and French
President Chirac, on the other hand, received slightly more positive
reviews in Russia than in other countries. Denials that the tripartite
group aimed at "challenging the U.S. role" as sole superpower and as
guarantor of European stability did not persuade observers. Moscow's
reformist, youth-oriented Komsomolskaya Pravda concluded that the troika
"can, and must, play a decisive role in preventing new divisions on the
continent." But regional radio Bayerischer Rundfunk of Munich declared that
"such obvious (Russian) games"--against "U.S. hegemony"--"cannot be played
with Kohl or Chirac." A French daily, in turn, maintained that it was
important to "anchor a democratic Russia to Europe," but not at the expense
of "giving in to the Kremlin's little games."


This survey is based on 59 reports from 19 countries, March 26-April 3.

EDITOR: Mildred Sola Neely 


RUSSIA: "Transition Period Over" 

Official government Rossiyskaya Gazeta (4/3) published this article by
Vladimir Kuznechevsky: "Russia has completed transition from a command
economy to a free market. Sensing that, the president did what he had to
do. With the transition period drawing to a close, the transition-period
government had to go, too." 

"End Of Nomenclature?" 

Aleksandr Batygin remarked in official government Rossiyskaya Gazeta (4/3):
"It seems that, if Kiriyenko becomes premier, he will do away with the
Soviet tradition of constantly reshuffling personnel and forming a
permanent nomenclature. For people like him, the rule is to seek out the
right people for a job, not vice versa." 

"Lack Of New Ideas" 

Dmitry Dokuchayev stated in reformist Izvestia (4/3): "Dire need for a new
cabinet philosophy is stark testimony that Russia's politico-economic and
intellectual elite is impotent, unable to suggest coherent guidelines for
this country to follow on the road to progress. The candidate to the
premiership may not have new ideas either." 
"You Only Squeeze A Lemon Once" 

Andrei Ryabov held on page one of reformist, business-oriented weekly VEK
(# 14, 4/3): "What seemed improbable only yesterday has become reality
today. It looks as if Russia will after all have a new government with a
'young technocrat' at the head. Whether the Duma approves Kiriyenko and
whether we will have early parliamentary elections this year is not
important. What is important is that Yeltsin, it seems, has set his mind on
a 'technocratic' government.... For a program to get off the ground, it
needs, in the first place, to be presented by politicians with weight 'at
the top' and a capacity to convince and come to terms with people. Chubais
and Nemtsov failed because they pursued a policy based entirely on economic
considerations, caring little about the interests of different classes and
social groups. Now we seem to be going to repeat that experiment." 

"Too Young To Deal With West" 

Aleksei Pushkov judged in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (4/3): "If approved,
Kiriyenko may have to stand in for Yeltsin at some time, in which case his
being too young and lacking political influence may not, and most likely
will not, help him deal with Western leaders. Russian premiers can't be
students any more. Today Russia, to use Boris Yeltsin's words, 'is not the
same.' We now have interests that differ substantially from America's. It
could be that the ongoing battles over Kiriyenko are a sign of more serious
instability in the upper echelon, the kind of which we have not seen since
Chernomyrdin took office as premier. Under the circumstances, Russia's
foreign policy, unchanged and predictable, is a great asset, even though
some of our partners may not like it." 
"U.S. Ignores Troika" 

Reformist weekly Obshchaya Gazeta (# 13, 4/2) published this commentary by
Aleksei Bausin: "Washington is acting as if it has missed axis preparations
(in Moscow). The State Department has merely indicated that the United
States welcomes Russia's integration into Europe. Certainly, the Americans
do not think of last week's triumvirate as Europe's future ruler." 


"Chernomyrdin Joins Race To Stay Alive" 

Sergei Chugayev held on page one of reformist Izvestia (3/31): "To have
Chernomyrdin as an ally, the president would have had to keep him in power.
Evidently, the premier was just kicked out. So to survive as a politician,
he had to announce his presidential candidacy. But for himself and his
movement to stay afloat, Chernomyrdin has to be in opposition, if loyal, to
the president." 

"Much Room For Uncertainty" 

Otto Latsis observed on page one of reformist Noviye Izvestia (3/31): "On
the one hand, the president said that the ex-premier's decision (to run)
came within 'our common philosophy.' On the other hand, he refused to call
Chernomyrdin his successor, noting that, under the constitution, 'every
citizen is entitled.'... Talking in so detached a manner about the one who
stood by you the closest in troubled times and calling him just another
citizen leaves too much room for political uncertainty.... The president
was quite right about the reasons for sacking the cabinet. The Chernomyrdin
government had done a great job, but proved helpless in the face of new
challenges. A quick action was justified. But using an old political style
was not." 

"Russia's Only Chance To See Light At End Of Tunnel" 

Readers of reformist Izvestia saw this by Vyacheslav Nikonov (3/31):
"Kiriyenko is not ready for the premiership. There is neither a ready-made
cabinet philosophy nor a team he could use. He has no political support
either. And he can't hope to get help from the West. His reputation as a
reformer has given comfort to politicians and businessmen abroad. But the
West does not know Kiriyenko well. So a cabinet is really hard put to
pursue an active and, therefore, unpopular policy, being relatively weak
politically and faced with exceedingly difficult economic problems. But it
is our only chance to see a light at the end of the tunnel in this century." 

"Don't Underestimate Kiriyenko" 

Nikolai Ivanov cautioned on page one of reformist Segodnya (3/31): "Don't
underestimate Kiriyenko. He is a technocrat only in the sense that he knows
how to implement his ideas technically. As the scale of the tasks
confronting him grows, he will act with ever more shrewdness and
far-sightedness. No doubt, Kiriyenko is no pawn and will never be one. Real
power will slowly but unavoidably transfer to the premier, with Yeltsin, as
president, having only to ensure a constitutional cover-up." 
"Beginnings Of New Entente" 

Aleksei Pushkov held in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (3/28): "As an
advisory body, the troika may become an important element of European
politics. The German chancellor thinks Russia more important than our
home-grown skeptics do. To believe him, Moscow-Paris-Bonn relations may
well grow into a new 'Entente.' The main reason for that is that both Bonn
and Paris are objectively interested in a stronger Europe as the center of
economic might and political influence, including vis-a-vis the United
States. For the Europeans, it is not a matter of opposing America--they
would rather that they could equal it in stature. They may not reach that
goal, at least not in the foreseeable future, but as long as they strive
for it, they will need 'special relations' with Moscow. For Russia, the aim
must be not to try to weaken American influence in Europe--that would be
counterproductive and dangerous--but to be a leading actor with a permanent
and important role to play on the European stage." 


"Troika To Help Moscow Defend Minority's Rights In Baltics" 

Centrist, army Krasnaya Zvezda's Vadim Markushin pointed out (3/28): "The
Baltics-EU and the 

Baltics-NATO themes, clearly, have become part of a political dialogue
inside the troika. With Paris and Berlin dominating in European
organizations, Moscow, admittedly, will feel more confident in upholding
the interests of the Russian-speaking population in the Baltics. In the
meantime, the official reactions of the United States and Britain to recent
events in Riga have been incoherent." 

"It's Best To Approve Kiriyenko At Once" 

Yelena Tregubova suggested on page one of reformist Russkiy Telegraf
(3/28): "The lesser evil would be for the Duma opposition to approve
Kiriyenko at once. After that, it could start preparing for a no-confidence
vote on the new government." 

"New Axis In The Making" 

Under this headline, reformist Izvestia (3/27) published a commentary by
Vera Kuznetsova: "Those predicting a fiasco, to use Yeltsin's words, were
far from the truth. The Big Three, according to the three leaders, did
meet, and, in spite of its informal status, will continue in its present
format." 

"Helps Russia Move Westward" 
Reformist Noviye Izvestia (3/27) noted editorially on page one: "The
informal meeting of the three European leaders proved useful for Russia's
move to the Old World. Having secured a seat in the Big Seven, the Russian
president did it again, this time in Europe." 

"U.S. Jealous" 

Sergei Maslov said in reformist, youth-oriented Komsomolskaya Pravda
(3/27): "Yesterday's fantasy is beginning to look like reality. A new
outline, a Moscow-Bonn-Paris triangle, fits well into the political map of
Europe. Due to its influence, it can, and must, play a decisive role in
preventing new divisions on the continent. The meeting is over, which is
only the beginning. Nobody openly resented the troika. But some countries
were jealous. The United States was, of course. The Americans have lately
been increasingly unhappy about the Europeans acting on their own." 

"Three Don't See Things Same Way" 

Yelena Tregubova observed in reformist Russkiy Telegraf (3/27): "Clearly,
there is a difference between Yeltsin and his two European friends in how
they see things. The Russian president insisted that the troika should
become as much as 'the main institution of Eurobuilding.' The guests, for
their part, kept swearing allegiance to their EU and NATO colleagues, and,
in doing so, supported each other's statements in a touching sort of way." 

"Idea Falls Short Of Moscow's Expectations" 

Dmitry Gornostayev judged on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta
(3/27): "It did not become a big inaugural ceremony to mark the beginning
of a new tripartite union, falling short of Moscow's secret hopes. Boris
Yeltsin's friends had to look over their shoulders, mindful of the United
States and the EU. While emphasizing Russia's 'indisputable' role in
building Europe, they never once mentioned a new structure in world
politics, merely stressing the importance of tripartite cooperation." 


"Troika As Backbone Of Collective European Security" 

Sergei Maslov opined in reformist, youth-oriented Komsomolskaya Pravda
(3/26): "The West 

has finally realized that, with NATO expanding eastward--destabilizingly
so--it needs a safeguard. A military bloc cannot create an adequate
security system on this continent. Without Russia, it is only a
half-Europe. On the other hand, the Alliance, obviously, is out to
supersede the amorphous OSCE, which has no real mechanisms to help
effectively settle conflicts. An informal Russo-German-French triumvirate,
if it meets regularly, might become a backbone of Europe and its collective
security system." 

"New Entente Aborted" 

Reformist, youth-oriented Moskovskiy Komsomolets (3/26) ran this preview by
Inara Filatova and Yury Zainashev: "Presented by Yeltsin in Strasbourg, the
idea of a meeting of the three sounded almost like a new Entente, a
tripartite union of leading European powers. The 'Big Three,' as the
Kremlin saw it, was to become a good counterbalance to American hegemony on
this continent and round the world--an idea as elegant as it is fantastic.
The Kremlin has had to give it up, though. As for the other two, they did
not even know they had nearly been signed up as members of a new club.
People in those countries show little or no interest in this event." 

"Post-Soviet Economic Model Is Bankrupt" 

Lev Makarevich of an association of Russian banks stated in a supplement to
reformist Izvestia (3/26): "The dismissal of the government was inevitable.
International oil and financial crises have totally changed the situation
in the economy. The 1998 budget, adopted with a six-month delay, does not
reflect the real state of affairs, and the government's plans have been
made impracticable. The post-Soviet economic model is bankrupt."
GERMANY: "Lost Time For Russia"

Miriam Neubert had this to say in an editorial in right-of-center Die Welt
of Berlin (4/3), "While political decisions do not make progress, the
social and economic problems continue to rise. The state still has to pay
wages to its employees, and the payment of pensions has been delayed again
and again.... The incapability of the state to fulfill the fundamental
right of the individual to payment for his work has become a synonym for
the incapability of the Yeltsin state to resolve the most urgent problems
in the country. The political elite in Moscow may have won time with the
roundtable talks next Tuesday in order to get out of the mess into which
the president has maneuvered them. But for the country and the people, this
is again lost time."

"Threatening Perspective For Russia"

Klaus-Helge Donath argued in an editorial in left-of-center Die
Tageszeitung of Berlin (3/31), "Yeltsin has put on record again that he is
not thinking of running a third time for the presidency. But by the summer
of 2000, the mood of the Russian president will change more than once,
provided his health does not prevent him from doing so.... Ex-premier
Chernomyrdin's announcement that he will run for president in the year 2000
obviously surprised the Kremlin. The humiliated premier struck back faster
than the Kremlin expected. And the Kremlin needed two days to work out a
formulation that creates a smokescreen about Yeltsin's real or strategic
plans.... 


"Obviously, the ex-premier has now also fallen into disgrace. And
explanations from last week that Yeltsin wanted to free the premier from
the burden of his office seem to have been a mere bluff.... Obviously
someone is trying to use all his power...to turn himself into the ruler of
the world. Pathological characteristics are now coming to the fore...and
this is a threatening perspective for Russia." 

"Miracles Can Happen"

The Chernomyrdin announcement sparked this front-page editorial by Manfred
Quiring in right-of-center Die Welt of Berlin (3/30), "The link between
public respect and a state office is nowhere as close as in Russia. Those
who lose their job in the government also lose significance. And what is
even worse, this person no longer has access to the state apparatus and the
media.... Now it must become clear how close were the contacts of the
candidate to Gazprom and the banks that have close links to the company.
Without their economic power, Chernomyrdin will have no chance. But with
their support, miracles can happen." 

"No Oscar For The Russian Titanic"

Right-of-center Fuldaer Zeitung (3/30) noted: "Chernomyrdin is a colorless
presidential candidate, Kiriyenko as designated government chief has no
support in the Duma, and Yeltsin has an erratic character and no concept.
He is in bad health and his condition resembles Brezhnev's in the final
days of his rule. The captain is reeling on the bridge of a rolling ship:
No Oscar for the Russian Titanic--and the iceberg is coming closer." 

"The Limits Of Cooperation"
Right-of-center Koelnische Rundschau (3/27) judged: "For this troika of the
'great European countries,' a great number of plans of secondary importance
are possible. However, the limits of cooperation are important to realize,
too. The troika made them clear yesterday. Russia is not able to play the
part of the United States in Europe. And the Kremlin's desire will not be
fulfilled by replacing NATO with the OSCE, and the EU will by no means be
restructured to give Russia a special role." 

"A Troika Aiming At Pushing Back U.S. Influence"

Right-of-center Nordsee-Zeitung of Bremerhaven (3/27) said: "It is true
that Chancellor Kohl stresses that the troika is directed against nobody,
but this looks rather naive. France and Russia's striving...aims at pushing
back U.S. influence on global politics. President Yeltsin did not hide this
goal. He accuses Washington of trying to dominate the world. According to
his view and the opinion of President Chirac, this three-country summit is
to halt the influence of the United States--whereby the Frenchman is not as
clumsy in presenting his views as openly as Yeltsin does."

"Obvious Games Cannot Be Played With Kohl, Chirac"

Regional radio Bayerischer Rundfunk of Munich (3/26) aired the following
commentary by P. Bock: "Yeltsin and his Foreign Minister Primakov may have
thought that they could forge an axis from Paris via Berlin to
Moscow--against U.S. hegemony in the world. But such obvious games cannot
be played with Kohl or Chirac, even though Paris and Moscow acted as
coalition partners against Washington in the Iraq crisis. This
three-country summit was mainly a meeting to back Yeltsin. Even before
Yeltsin's re-election in 1996, many Western politicians came to Moscow to
act as indirect election supporters. But Thursday's meeting could be rather
detrimental as far as domestic policy is concerned. On Thursday, the
Russians saw an ailing and occasionally confused president for whom Chirac
and Kohl were worried. The PR managers in the Kremlin did not do Yeltsin a
service by sticking to the meeting. The latest change of government and the
replacement of Chernomyrdin as reliable premier are especially mysterious
and worrying against this background." 


"Kiriyenko's Strengths"

Centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich's editorial (3/26) by Miriam
Neubert pointed out, 

"Kiriyenko...is still a political dark horse. But this could be his
strength.... There are two reasons that speak for him becoming the future
Russian premier. First of all, there is his neutrality. He has not yet
compromised himself, and has not yet criticized anybody.... Kiriyenko's age
would also allow Yeltsin to separate his work in the government from the
election campaign. Kiriyenko would also be out of the question as a
presidential candidate, unlike Chernomyrdin, who has been described as a
possible successor to Yeltsin, thus becoming his possible competitor. And
Kiriyenko is a young reformer from the Nemtsov team, which still enjoys
Yeltsin's support."

FRANCE: "Chernomyrdin's Candidacy" 

Veronique Soule observed in left-of-center Liberation (3/30): "For
Chernomyrdin, his candidacy is a logical step.... His ambitions were quite
clear, and no one should be surprised if he decides to confront Yeltsin.
But he faces a major hurdle: He is not a very popular candidate. Still, he
must have calculated the risk of making his intentions known two years
before the elections. Keeping quiet meant political death."

"Moscow Still An Unpredictable Partner"

According to Jean-Claude Kiefer in regional Les Dernieres Nouvelles
d'Alsace (3/27): "Granted, Paris and Bonn have everything to gain by
entertaining the best possible relations with Moscow. But it was obvious
yesterday that Chirac and Kohl were much less enthusiastic than Yeltsin
when it came to drawing the conclusions of the summit. It is of crucial
importance for European security to anchor a democratic Russia to Europe.
But it must be done without giving in to the Kremlin's little games and
with the hopes of dealing with a much more predictable partner." 

"Yeltsin's Great Europe" 

Jean-Pierre Thibaudat wrote in left-of-center Liberation (3/27): "The brief
tripartite summit...will be remembered more for its symbolic effect than
anything else, in spite of Yeltsin's insistence that there are two poles in
Europe, the EU and the European troika.... The 'cooperation projects'
announced by Yeltsin are as hypothetical as they are numerous."

BRITAIN: "Yeltsin Moves To End Battle Over Kiriyenko" 

This assessment from Moscow ran in the independent Financial Times (4/2),
"Boris Yeltsin eased a standoff with the legislature yesterday by inviting
the speakers of both houses of parliament to meet him and Sergei Kiriyenko,
the prime minister-designate. The president's conciliatory gesture
persuaded parliamentarians to back off their threat to ask the Kremlin
formally to withdraw its nomination of Mr. Kiriyenko.... Western economists
have warned that the wrangling could delay important structural and
financial reforms." 
"Russia Stares Into Abyss'" 

>From Moscow, the liberal Guardian said (4/2): "Nearly three-quarters of
Russia's budget will go on servicing its debts unless cardinal policy
changes are made, Russia's prime minister-in-waiting, Sergei Kiriyenko,
warned yesterday.. In an apocalyptic sermon to the upper house of
parliament yesterday, he warned of the disastrous state of the economy....
The whiff of crisis in the corridors of power stems from the fact that
until a prime minister is confirmed, the Russian constitution does not make
clear who would take over as head of state and commander-in-chief of the
armed forces if Mr. Yeltsin died or became incapacitated." 


"Boris Can't Give Russia Government It Needs" 

The left-wing weekly New Statesman had this commentary by associate editor
John Lloyd (3/27): "President Yeltsin fired his entire cabinet on Monday
because President Clinton was out of Washington, and learned of the moves
in Moscow too late to appeal for them to be scrapped.... The date
chosen...was wholly deliberate and reveals the huge importance the American
administration plays, and has always played, in Yeltsin's calculations....
Boris Yeltsin has returned, in many ways, to a pre-Gorbachev time. The
forced resignation of the cabinet while the American president's back was
turned, calls to mind the invasion of Afghanistan on the day after
Christmas in 1979. The seclusion from the people, arbitrariness of rule and
ruthless bolstering of power recalls both general secretaries and tsars.
But Yeltsin--as he fitfully comprehends--is a ruler of a state struggling
towards modernity, with a growing middle class and with real freedoms. He
needs to give it a government that matches these demands. The signs are
increasingly that he cannot, and that the United States cannot help him to
do it." 

ITALY: "Consultations, But No More Than That"

A dispatch from Moscow in leading business Il Sole-24 Ore read (3/27):
"Political consultations at the highest level, but nothing more than that.
This is how experts assessed the first informal summit among Yeltsin, Kohl
and Chirac.... On the international level, Yeltsin wanted to reiterate the
fact that Russia is part of Europe, while the most important result of the
summit is that the three leaders managed to bring their positions on Kosovo
closer." 

"Party On?"

Left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (3/27) noted from Moscow: "An
exhibition of friendship and beautiful words behind which one can perhaps
guess an ambitious project, that for a Greater Europe capable of breaking
the American monopoly of world power. But almost zero concrete results....
Kosovo? Iraq? And all the international problems on which you bet the
troika is not so unanimous? Nothing, not even a single word. As if
concreteness had been banned from the summit. Let the feast triumph." 

"This Club Is Not Anti-U.S."

PDS (leading government party) L'Unita concluded (3/27): "In reality none
of the three leaders has the intention of breaking with or engaging in a
dispute with the American president. In the end, in fact, all made a point
to clarify that the club 'is not aimed against the United States.'" 

"The Toughest 'Political' Problem"

Centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera said from Moscow (3/26):
"Outside Moscow, Russians do not know how to get two meals a day.... Many
factories are shutting down. Last Tuesday, even a Mig factory had to
suspend its workers for at least four months.... This is the toughest
'political' problem confronting the new premier, the people are very
unhappy. Certainly, inflation was defeated and the fall of productivity was
arrested on a nationwide basis, but too many pockets of underdevelopment
persist. If this situation does not change, the political elections
scheduled for 1999 and the presidential elections in the year 2000 will be
at risk. Yeltsin knows this very well. Polls indicate that Communist leader
Zyuganov leads again in popularity ratings." 


AUSTRIA: "No Quiet Times In Store For Russia" 

Moscow correspondent Uwe Engelbrecht filed for prestigious, conservative
Die Presse (3/27), "The fact that Russia is standing at the threshold of a
new period of instability has become clearer and clearer over the past few
weeks. The president's physical and psychological 
resources have been exhausted, a third candidacy for Yeltsin is out of the
question.... The establishment had to fear mainly protest campaigns by the
opposition and the labor unions, whose social slogans threatened to turn
into political claims. Yeltsin therefore once again decided to change the
scenery.... Now the whole world is wondering what a new cabinet could do
better or differently.... There are no quiet times in store for Russia." 

BULGARIA: "European Trio Measures Its Strength Against U.S."

Mass-circulation Trud (3/29) held, "Russia, Germany, and France are trying
to establish the foundations of a new world's center of power. The
participants in the meeting announced loudly that the tripartite union
would not be directed against anybody. This may be true only formally. In
fact, the main strategic goal is challenging the U.S.' leading role." 

HUNGARY: "Chernomyrdin's Role"

According to sociologist Pal Tamas in influential Magyar Hirlap (4/1), "The
recent reshuffle of the Russian cabinet has received a relatively calm
international reaction, but foreign and Russian Kremlin experts are running
heated debates over what has been happening in reality.... A key figure in
the story is Chernomyrdin, who seems to be the Russian bankers' most
favored candidate for the year 2000. Yeltsin received a new Russian
intelligence service report about the Gore-Chernomyrdin meeting held two
weeks ago. At the meeting, according to the report, Chernomyrdin asked for
the U.S.' support for the next round of Russian presidential elections. Al
Gore, in exchange for START II ratification, reportedly promised support.
It is becoming quite visible now how Chernomyrdin is, step by step, growing
into the role of the 'Good Czar.' Regarding the new prime minister
candidates, the most talented, but the least experienced, figure is
Kiriyenko." 

"Who Will Be Next?"

Influential Magyar Hirlap carried an op-ed piece by Russian affairs expert
Agnes Gereben (3/30): "Berezovsky, as a reaction to Yeltsin's recent
attitude, has already given a smooth indication to the Russian president
that he might be loosing the support of the the Russian bank elite and the
Russian media in their hands. The recent news that hit the news pages about
the recent developments regarding the Russian cabinet has been a hint that
it is the Russian president who could fall, sooner or later, himself a
victim of the collapse of his cabinet." 

POLAND: "Yeltsin Has Cornered Duma"

Leopold Unger maintained in center-left Gazeta Wyborcza (3/28-29), "Yeltsin
has cornered the Duma. The [Russian] parliament has no good option--either
it agrees to Kiriyenko, to whom it inadvertently objected, and thus...lose
the rest of its credibility, or it can face dissolution and resist
Yeltsin's blackmail and reject Kiriyenko."
"Using Bonn And Paris To Realize Russia's European Policy"


In centrist Rzeczpospolita (3/26), Maria Wagrowska judged,"The interest the
'troika' meeting...raises in Poland is at least equal to that in the three
countries in question. This interest, however, is mostly of an emotional
nature. The Moscow talks serve [ however,] as a reminder of the moments in
history when the great powers decided the fate of lesser states.... There
truly is a possibility that Moscow may wish to take advantage of its
relationship with Bonn and Paris to realize Russia's European policy.... On
the other hand, a [more] active role by Germany and France will face
impediment both from smaller countries and [international] bodies such as
the Permanent Joint NATO-Russia Council (with the U.S. playing the leading
role) and the EU-Russia Council of Cooperation. 

"The three [troika] countries have already established a new form of
[mutual] cooperation after 

the decision by Western and Central Europe--with Poland most active in it
as the chair of the OSCE in 1998--that a [new] Charter of European Security
(through which Russia would like to influence the [European] security
architecture now being constructed) will be adopted only after NATO
enlargement is implemented. This best indicates the line that cannot be
crossed in Russia's political cooperation with the West."

SPAIN: "Russia: Like A Volcano About To Erupt"

Otto de Habsburgo in conservative ABC stressed (4/1): "What is now taking
place in and around the Kremlin is reminiscent of the early stages of
Bolshevism during which Lenin, seriously ill and distant from reality,
continued to live while others governed in his name.... With Yeltsin's days
numbered, Russia is like a volcano about to erupt...while the possibility
of an ensuing generalized chaos and the ascent of a leader who would
consolidate the forces of extremism [cannot be discounted]. This potential
panorama should impel Europeans to expand the EU as quickly as possible in
order to increase the security of Russia's neighbors before the onset of
the storm."

"Yeltsin: The Obstacle" 

Liberal El Pais bemoaned (3/31): "In order to address its enormous
problems, Russia needs to dispel the clouds on its political horizon. In
principle, Yeltsin's declaration that he will not run for a third term in
the year 2000 should help define that horizon and open the country to new
possibilities. Yet, his announcement was so ambiguous that it has led to
confusion, making it apparent two years after his July 1996 re-election
that Yeltsin, with each passing day, is becoming more a part of the problem
than its solution. A country with so many pending reforms, and in which
power is so concentrated in the hands of the president, should not have to
depend on the whimsies of a person whose illness prevents him from the
effective exercise of his office." 

"What's To Be Done With Russia?" 

Conservative ABC (3/27), quoting Lenin's "'What's To Be Done?," continued,
"The question remains unanswered down to this day by both Russians and
their continental neighbors, none of whom has been able to overcome the
perplexity arising from the quixotic international role now being played by
the once awesome empire. The same question hung over the tripartite
summit.... (Kohl and Chirac) came to [Yeltsin's] assistance with the
declaration: 'The road ahead for Europe implies association with Russia,'
although they clearly shied away from the label, 'Paris-Berlin-Moscow
troika.' [What's to be done with] a myopic giant whose dangerous thrashing
about can cause untold damage and therefore needs to be stabilized? No one
knows yet just how." 


EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

CHINA: "Russia Puts Off Vote, Dispute Avoided"

Wang Xianju informed readers of intellectually-oriented Guangming Daily
(Guangming Ribao, 4/3), "The dispute between the president and parliament
has been avoided because of parliament's postponement of the vote on
Kiriyenko's appointment and Yeltsin's agreement to the 'round table
meeting.' The approval of the new prime minister is expected on April 8,
thus ruling out the possibility for the dismissal of the parliament." 

"Good Atmosphere But Different Positions"

Xu Zhihong told readers of the official, Communist Party People's Daily
(Renmin Ribao, 3/28), "Russia's designs for the Tripartite meeting was to
secure its position in Europe and try to diminish the unfavorable effects
produced by NATO enlargement.... Russia is striving to 

establish a new 'power center' with France and Germany and, to some extent,
offset the aggressive U.S. momentum in Europe. Although the three leaders
have shown satisfaction with the friendly tone of the meeting...differences
are noticeable in their comments." 

AUSTRALIA: "Is Boris Still Russia's Best Man?" 

The liberal Melbourne Age (3/26) stated in this op-ed, "Mr. Yeltsin's
action is more reminiscent of the poor tradesman blaming his tools than of
a wise leader choosing a new and dynamic team to drive home much-needed
reform. Indeed, Mr. Yeltsin's erratic political behavior--along with the
apparently dangerous state of his health and his notorious liking for the
bottle--is increasingly an obstacle to Russia's taking its place as a
stable and prosperous player internationally.... There must be serious
doubt as to whether Boris Yeltsin, long regarded by the West as Russia's
best hope, remains the most suitable person to lead Russia."

INDONESIA: "A Time To Watch"

Leading, independent Kompas's editorial held (4/1): "Russian political
developments in the next few days will be very interesting to follow. No
matter how great the Russian president's power might be, the fact remains
that Russia is a democratic state: The president is elected by its people,
and his/her authority is controlled tightly by the parliament, the Duma....
Although succession is still two years away, the developments in the coming
days could bring a new situation."

SOUTH KOREA: "Concern Over Yeltsin's Successor" 

Conservative Segye Ilbo (4/1) commented, "When President Boris Yeltsin
publicly announced that nobody has been designated his successor, he was
signaling that former Prime Minister Chernomyrdin would not be the one.
This remark reflects Yeltsin's concern that his political standing could
weaken once a successor is announced. The generally accepted view is that
the president will run again in the year 2000 if his health allows it.
Western analysts, however, express concern over Yeltsin's continuing
political aspirations, believing they may lead Russia into great danger in
the future. One concern is that if he has heart problems again, it will
generate a great deal of political confusion, possibly leading to the
re-emergence of the Communists or a military coup. They believe strongly
that it would be better for the president to name his successor now. That,
however, is not likely to happen because the president will not easily give
up on the idea of running again for presidency." 


THAILAND: "Russians Suffer A Brain Drain: Yeltsin" 

The lead editorial of largest circulation, moderately conservative,
English-language Bangkok Post commented (3/28), "Given the president's
strength under the Russian constitution, not only are there no institutions
or individuals with the power to unseat a disabled national head, there are
precious few restrictions to prevent him following whatever whims or
fancies might pop into an obviously stretched brain.... Mr. Yeltsin, like
many others suffering from similar combinations of multiple health problems
and galloping old age, may be capable of periods of concentration and
sense, but he is also very obviously prone to periods of wild wanderings.
For the sake of the people of Russia, its neighbors and indeed the world,
it is to be hoped that, if Mr. Yeltsin cannot be removed, he can at least
be restrained during his wilder times and carefully directed for best
possible governing performance. History shows us that there have been many
terrible consequences when men have ruled too far past their prime." 

SOUTH ASIA

BANGLADESH: "End Of Unipolar World"

Pro-government, Bangla-language Banglar Bani (3/30) said, "Recently, three
heads of 

government met in Russia. After the meeting, Russian President Boris
Yeltsin clearly said that the idea of a unipolar world is going to end. He
termed the meeting between the three leaders historic. Chirac and Kohl also
echoed his words.... A global politics devoid of balance is not desirable
to anybody."

LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN

ARGENTINA: "Status Seeker" 

Guillermo Ortiz, international analyst for business-financial El Cronista,
opined (3/27), "This tripartite summit updated a key post-Cold War issue:
the role of a post-Soviet Russia.... Russian diplomacy has worked very hard
in achieving from the United States and its allies a treatment according to
its status as a great power.... NATO's enlargement undermined its strategy
aimed at creating a new bipolar world, but not everything is lost. At a
time of multiplied conflicts, the Kremlin appears as a reliable ally,
though it must leave aside a prejudice--which comes from Cold War days--by
which every Russian intervention in the former republics--basically the
Caucasian south, a highly volatile area--is viewed as 'imperial.'... A new
era." 

BRAZIL: "Troika's Goal Is Clear"

A byliner in liberal Folha de Sao Paulo wrote (3/29), "Yeltsin once again
used Cold War rhetoric to...announce his plans for the creation of a
`Greater Europe.' The goal is clear: to counterbalance U.S. power by
fostering the rebirth of a bipolar world order.... Curiously, therefore,
the Cold War is over, but the tensions of a typically bipolar world remain
visible. Many people have interpreted Yeltsin's statements as another bluff
by an hopeless drunkard. A little more attention is enough to realize that
there are much more things at stake. 

"These incidents and episodes suggest not only that the 'unipolar' reality,
the U.S. global domination is not yet a politically stable situation, but
also that from an economic standpoint, the role of nation states continues
to be relevant.... We would be marching towards a `multicentric' world in
terms of power and political agendas. The European reaction (as well as the
Chinese resistance), however, suggests that the new world has more
similarities with the old one than certain vain philosophies suppose." 


JAMAICA: "Reform Has Yet To Run Its Course" 

Lecturer in the Department of Government at the University of the West
Indies John Rapley remarked in the moderate, influential Daily Gleaner
(3/27): "It appears safe to say that in the short term, there will be no
fundamental change in policy. But the longer term looks less certain. If
there is no apparent successor to Mr. Yeltsin among the reformers, there
will continue to be a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the government
because of the president's uncertain health.... Contrary to what Mr.
Yeltsin might have said in the past, reform has yet to run its course. It
might be impossible now to reverse its changes, but its benefits remain
concentrated in a relatively small number of hands."

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