Russian experts more sceptical than US analysts about 'reset' of relations
RIA-Novosti
Moscow, 30 June: In the run-up to US President Barack Obama's visit to Russia (on 6-8 July) experts in Russia are more sceptical than their colleagues in the USA about the future of Russian-American relations. Differences in expectations when assessing problems and tasks facing the two countries on the way to "resetting" and rethinking relations were revealed during an expert session at the Valday Discussion Club which opened in Moscow on Tuesday (30 June).
Under the auspices of RIA Novosti and the Council of Foreign and Defence Policy (CDFP), at today's session of the Russian-American section Russian and American interests are being discussed and compared in order to understand how relations will develop under the new administration in Washington.
"The Russian side has expressed stronger scepticism since in Russia (experts) can't see real changes in American policy and believe that they are rather cosmetic," Sergey Karaganov, chairman of the CDFP presidium, told RIA Novosti. According to him, everyone can see the fragility of the proposed "reset" of Russian-American relations.
"Secondly, many people in Russia believe that Obama will also "break", as at the time many Americans thought that Mikhail Gorbachev or Boris Yeltsin would "break".
"Plus the Americans' unwillingness to make significant changes to their policy," Karaganov said. First of all, he mentioned Washington's unwillingness to refuse NATO membership to other countries and attempts to avoid signing a comprehensive European security treaty.
It is also noteworthy that the participants in the discussion are only discussing the prospects for Obama's policy, without touching upon what will happen when a new administration comes to replace it.
"At present agreements are not worth anything," Karaganov admitted.
In his turn, Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy director of the US and Canada Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said it was important to understand what exactly would lead to changes in relations between the two countries.
"So far I can see nothing that might lead to these changes," the expert said.
According to him, it is still not clear to what extent these relations are set to improve and it is not clear what exactly we should be striving for.
In Kremenyuk's opinion, cooperation between Russia and the USA should be taken at least to the level which existed under Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan or George Bush Senior when the countries used to hold regular consultations. The impression is that neither the Russian nor the American side want this mechanism.
"Russia is afraid that, if it agrees to coordinate its policy with the Americans, it will be declaring its weakness. The Americans are afraid that Russia will become even weaker, so America should not take too many obligations upon itself," Kremenyuk told RIA Novosti.
According to Kremenyuk, so far Russia and the USA "have been moving in their understanding of each other in different directions".
Some American experts cannot see any guarantees for the future either.
"No-one can guarantee that policy won't change under a new American president, as no-one can guarantee that policy won't change under a new Russian president," Steven Pifer, a visiting fellow on foreign policy at the Centre on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution, told RIA Novosti.
According to him, Obama and Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev need to outline a circle of common interests for the two countries and deal with problems in which they are both interested. He agrees that a permanent mechanism for consultations is needed during intervals between summits of the two countries, such as the Gore-Chernomyrdin format under former US President Bill Clinton. Also a list of tasks is needed which the two countries should synchronize in order to monitor their implementation.
James Collins, director of Russia and Eurasia programmes at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that the Obama administration is in a "serious mood" to do business with Russia, including on military matters. "The real problem which we have been encountering in recent years is that Russia and the USA have no long-term permanent discussions at high level, which are needed for their relations to be stable," Collins said.
In his opinion, one should not worry too much that, if the administration changes, policy will change. "If it is successful, they are unlikely to give it up," the expert said.
(Background note: The Valday Discussion Club was founded in October 2004, and brings together leading foreign specialists on Russia and Russian political analysts, journalists and public figures).
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