#27 - JRL 2008-92 - JRL Home
Subject: Response Submission for publication on the
Johnson List [re: Russia's post-Communist transformation]
Date: Mon, 12 May 2008
From: "Anders Aslund" <aaslund@petersoninstitute.org>
In his comment on my lecture at the Kennan Institute and my book Russia’s
Capitalist Revolution (Peterson Institute, 2007), W. George Krasnow (JRL
2008-#89) summarizes some of the most common misperceptions about Russia’s
post-communist transformation and then some, so I feel a need to put them right.
1. It was Yeltsin who picked Gaidar through the intermediation of Gennady
Burbulis and nobody else.
2. There was never any realistic gradualist alternative in Russia in 1991,
because the Soviet economy had collapsed. Yegor Gaidar has clarified that better
than anybody else in his recent book The Collapse of Empire (Brookings, 2007).
Ukraine suffered far more than Russia because it adopted very slow reforms until
late 1994. Belarus never managed to break out of a state-controlled economy and
dictatorship because of even less reform. The greatest successes were the
radical and comprehensive market reforms in Poland and the three Baltic states.
The comparative empirical evidence is extremely strong as I have shown at length
in my book How Capitalism Was Built (Cambridge UP, 2007). The problem with
Russia’s economic reforms was, first, the total devastation of the economy by
the communists and, second, that it was impossible to impose more radical
reforms.
3. Joseph Stiglitz started his public criticism of Russia’s reforms at the
time of its financial crash of 1998, claiming that they were a total failure
just when Russia was turning to a period of a steady economic growth of 7
percent. What kind of foresight is that? The “Washington Consensus” refers to a
summary of a broad consensus made by John Williamson in 1990.
4. Krasnow praises Janine Wedel, but her book Collision and Collusion is
profoundly flawed, because she is unconcerned with facts. She finds somebody who
says anything and treats it as truth. Out of Krasnow’s quotes and citations, I
can refute quite a few. First, I never attended the dacha she refers to and I
could thus not “offer access to Western money.” Second, it is true that I was on
the board of the Russian Privatization Center, but I did not “deliver Swedish
government monies” to it. Nor was I ever asked to do so. I simply was and remain
a strong supporter of privatization and Anatoly Chubais, who is just completing
Russia’s electricity reform, the only great reform in Russia in the last five
years. Third, I never worked in the Shleifer team institutionally. Andrei
Shleifer ran an advisory group for privatization, while the group Jeffrey Sachs
and I led was separate and worked on macroeconomic policy. Our group and I
myself were (fortunately) never financed by USAID. The simple truth about
Wedel is that she is an untruthful slanderer, best ignored. She started
attacking shock therapy in Poland, but after it turned out to be a resounding
success, she continued criticizing it in Russia, where the problem was that
reforms were not radical enough.
5. In my books Russia’s Capitalist Revolution and How Capitalism Was Built, I
point out that Western assistance to Russia was minute. The biggest stream was
IMF funds, which were all credits, which have now been paid back. When Western
funding of reforms was most needed and could have been effective, in the winter
of 1991/92, the West gave nothing, and US assistance has been minuscule. That
was the overwhelming scandal in Western aid to Russia. What Wedel focuses on is
a tiny point that has not been judged a crime by any court, which suggests that
it was very minor indeed. I am at loss why that should be mentioned in a book
about Russia’s post-communist transformation. An author needs to distinguish
what is significant and what is not.
6. Yes, I take a more positive view of the oligarchs than of Putin because I
support democracy and oppose corruption. Most democratic and capitalist
societies have started as oligarchies, and gradually competition has evolved as
society has grown richer. This is happening in democratic Ukraine, where growth
is as solid as in Russia but corruption is declining according to the World Bank
and Transparency International. Putin, however, halted this competition and
burgeoning democracy. Instead, he and his cronies have captured much of the oil
windfall for their personal benefit, and corruption has increased. In all
likelihood, nobody has made such large fortunes from corruption in world history
as Putin and his cronies. Dictatorship and corruption go together. Among
countries richer than Russia, only Equatorial Guinea is considered more corrupt
by Transparency International and only eight are also authoritarian (Singapore
and seven small petrostates). Ukraine shows where the richer Russia could have
gone if not so many oligarchs had not been expropriated and repressed by Putin.
Putin has benefited greatly from Yeltsin’s reforms in the 1990s and a huge
windfall. He has just been plain lucky and he has done a minimum for his
country. The question is only how soon his judgment will arrive.
Anders Aslund, Peterson Institute for International Economics
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