#31 - JRL 2008-82 - JRL Home
RFE/RL
April 27, 2008
Chechnya: Is Kadyrov Maintaining Hold On Power?
By Claire Bigg
Copyright (c) 2008. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
www.rferl.org
Just over one year after President Vladimir Putin handed him the Chechen
leadership, Ramzan Kadyrov has taken innumerable steps to tighten his grip over
the war-battered republic.
But the recent standoff between his forces and a rival pro-Kremlin clan
underscores the volatile situation in Chechnya as it rebuilds from more than a
decade of war against separatist rebels.
Kadyrov's fighters last week reportedly engaged in a deadly clash with
servicemen from the Vostok battalion, commanded by Sulim Yamadayev, after their
motorcades failed to give way near the Chechen town of Argun.
Kadyrov and Yamadayev, both former separatist rebels, have each pledged
loyalty to Putin, who is due to step down after Dmitry Medvedev is sworn in as
Russia's new president on May 7.
But Yamadayev's battalion formally reports to the Defense Ministry in Moscow,
making it the only commando unit in the republic not under Kadyrov's control.
Aleksei Malashenko, a Caucasus expert at the Carnegie Center in Moscow, says
the standoff is a sign that the power struggle between the two clans is far from
abating.
"That's why Ramzan is reacting so strongly, that's why he is saying that all
Vostok battalion servicemen are criminals -- he wants to get rid of them
quickly," Malashenko says. "But he isn't succeeding, and he won't succeed. The
Vostok battalion consists of armed people, militarily extremely efficient; they
are professionals. They won't be disbanded and farmed out to Kadyrov -- they
will always be Russia's reserve."
During last week's clash, the two sides exchanged gunfire before Vostok
eventually gave way to Kadyrov's motorcade. There were conflicting reports
regarding the death toll -- a Chechen official said there were no casualties,
while the Reuters news agency reported at least 18 people, including servicemen
and civilians, were killed in the shoot-out.
Kadyrov quickly ordered police and his soldiers to surround and search
Vostok's headquarters in Gudermes, Chechnya's second-largest city and the base
of the Yamadayev clan led by Sulim and his brothers.
Since then, both sides have been trading accusations of murder and abuse of
power.
Chechnya's parliament called on the Defense Ministry to oust Yamadayev from
the Vostok battalion, and Kadyrov accused Yamadayev and his brother Badrudi of
murders and abductions.
Yamadayev, in turn, said Kadyrov's forces practiced kidnappings and stood
ready for another war with Russia. "They are just waiting," he told the Ekho
Moskvy radio station.
Out Of Moscow's Control?
Kadyrov and his men have a history of violent encounters with their rivals,
but these clashes rarely make it to the media.
Analysts say the latest standoff publicly embarrasses the Kremlin at a time
when Putin, who has touted Chechnya's stability as one of his proudest
achievements, prepares to step down.
Due to his close ties with Putin, any setback to Kadyrov's authority could
reflect badly on the Kremlin and destabilize the region.
Some observers, however, have speculated that the Kremlin may have an
interest in letting the dispute escalate.
"I don't understand the logic of the current authorities," says Ruslan
Martagov, a former spokesman for the mid-1990s, Moscow-installed Chechen
government of Doku Zavgayev.
"One is under the orders of the presidential administration, the other is
under the orders of the Defense Ministry. What prevents them from summoning both
these people and telling them, 'You take your troops here, and you take your
troops there'? This would take about 20 minutes," Martagov says. "Either they
don't want to do that, or they have absolutely no control over the situation
there."
Moscow's influence in the region has declined sharply in past years after it
gradually ceded power to Kadyrov's forces, most of whom are former rebel
fighters amnestied by the Kremlin.
The 31-year-old president has sought to consolidate his power in the province
by establishing a cult of personality around himself and his father,
Akhmed-hadji Kadyrov, the former pro-Moscow Chechen president killed in a bomb
attack in May 2004.
The Chechen government, for instance, published a book of speeches and
quotations by Ramzan Kadyrov to mark his first year as president. Kadyrov is
credited with a reconstruction boom that began under his tenure as prime
minister two years ago.
But critics continue to accuse Kadyrov and his fighters of severe human
rights abuses and of amassing a vast fortune through illegal oil exports,
extortion, and racketeering.
Many have condemned Moscow for putting too much faith in the rough-mannered,
former rebel. Chechnya-watchers say Kadyrov is now powerful enough to plunge the
region into new chaos if he ends up turning against his Kremlin masters -- or
being slain like his father.
"Placing one's bet on one single person is dangerous, very dangerous," the
Carnegie Center's Malashenko says. "He has many enemies -- both in Russia and in
Chechnya itself -- he is an adventurous young man, he often travels without
bodyguards. He's a fatalistic kind of person. I think he has a 50 percent chance
of reaching his 40th birthday."
RFE/RL's Russian Service contributed to this report.
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