Conflict in the Northern Caucasus is slowly spreading from Chechnya to the west, according to John O’Loughlin, professor of geography and faculty research associate, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado. Speaking at a recent Kennan Institute lecture, he presented the results of an ongoing research project that maps and analyzes violent incidents in the North Caucasus republics of Adygea, Karachaevo-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya, and Dagestan, as well as Stavropol and Krasnodar regions. While violence appears to be decreasing in Chechnya itself, the number of violent incidents continues to rise in other parts of the Northern Caucasus, specifically in Ingushetia, Dagestan, and North Ossetia. Still, Chechnya remains the site of the vast majority of violent incidents. Eighty-four percent of the more than 14,000 violent incidents tracked in O’Loughlin’s study took place in Chechnya.

O’Loughlin stated that the project collects data from reports by Russian and Western news agencies and covers the period from August 1999 to August 2007. Violent incidents include arrests, discoveries of weapons caches, bombings, kidnappings, assassinations, murders of security personnel, and attacks on politicians. An incident is coded in a variety of ways, including nature of the incident, the number of people killed or injured, geographical location, and date. The data is then mapped and analyzed statistically.

According to O’Loughlin, there are seasonal peaks and valleys across all the data, with the most violent incidents coming during the summer months. He noted that the number of violent events reached a peak in 2001 and has been in slow decline since then until about March 2007, when it began to increase. Rebel activity, especially in Chechnya and Ingushetia, increased noticeably after declining in previous years. The number of arrests increased dramatically around this time as well. This can be partly explained by the wave of arrests set in motion by the Ingush authorities, although O’Loughlin cautioned that the increased number of arrests may backfire and end up creating the rebellion the authorities meant to avoid.

Although there are fewer violent events in Chechnya, O’Loughlin stated that the methods used by authorities to achieve this aim may in fact have the effect of spreading violence to surrounding regions, especially Ingushetia. The spatial diffusion of violent events westward will likely continue.