#11 - JRL 2008-73 - JRL Home
Moscow Times
April 10, 2008
Editorial
Photo Ops and Back Patting Aren't Enough
After weeks of predictions -- and great expectations -- on both sides of the
ocean that Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin would sign a strategic
document in Sochi, the two leaders walked away with only one document titled
"U.S.-Russia Strategic Declaration."
The declaration offers little substance in terms of resolving the conflicting
Russian and U.S. positions on several key issues. The document only pledges that
the two sides will continue to try to reach a compromise on enduring problems,
such as U.S. plans to deploy a missile-defense system in Central Europe, an
extension to the Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty and the fates of the
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Treaty on Conventional Armed
Forces in Europe.
The position of the Bush administration is that the missile-defense system
needs to be deployed to protect against an attack from Iran. Russia's position
is that there is no imminent Iranian threat and that the planned missile-defense
system could be reconfigured to be used against Russian missiles. In addition,
the Kremlin believes that neither the INF nor the CFE will serve Russia's
interests, unless the countries that have developed intermediate-range missiles
join the INF and all NATO countries ratify the CFE.
When it comes to national interests, neither country is interested in
undermining the international arms control security and stability that the INF
and CFE provide. Nor are the two countries interested in the emergence of new
nuclear powers, whether it is Iran or any other country.
But it takes mutual trust for the negotiators to be flexible enough to move
from their official negotiating positions to discuss their real interests. Over
the past eight years, Bush and Putin have developed a relationship built on
trust, and they could have used this trust in their Sochi negotiations to reach
a compromise on missile defense, arms control agreements and NATO expansion. But
in Sochi, this opportunity was wasted. The only thing that the summit produced
was a news conference, friendly pats on the back, photo opportunities and a
nonbinding declaration. All of the difficult and divisive bilateral issues will
be left to Bush's and Putin's successors to resolve.
Another problem is that the two presidents did not create any permanent
bilateral forums in which lower-level diplomats could regularly interact and
develop trust and cooperation between the two administrations.
Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have expressed interest in a meaningful
dialogue with President-elect Dmitry Medvedev. But regardless of who wins the
U.S. presidential election, it will require a lot of time and good will to
develop a trusting relationship with Medvedev. It will take even longer if John
McCain, a harsh critic of Putin, becomes the next U.S. president.
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