MOSCOW. March 16 (Interfax) - The 2+2 talks between Russia and the United States' top defense and foreign policy officials, to be held in Moscow on March 17-18, will highlight the current state and development trends in Russian-American relations, said Sergei Rogov, the director of the Russian Academy of Sciences' U.S. and Canada Studies Institute.

"There are reasons to believe that this meeting will provide the last chance to forge a compromise between Russia and the United States before a Russia-NATO summit is held in Bucharest in April with the Russian president attending," Rogov told Interfax on Friday.

"If no compromise solution is found on the missile shield issue and on NATO's enlargement, relations between Moscow and Washington, Moscow and the West could further deteriorate," he said.

Concerning the prospect of achieving progress on the issue of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty in the upcoming 2+2 talks, Rogov said he did not think Washington would depart from its earlier voiced position.

"The United States, like the other NATO members, has been refusing so far to ratify the adapted CFE Treaty, signed back in 1999, arguing that Russia must pull out its troops from Moldova and Georgia. Russian troops were fully withdrawn from Georgia last year. A force of some 1,500 troops remains in Transdniestria to guard the huge Soviet-era arsenals located there. I do not see any signs indicating that the United States will reconsider its position or backtrack on the tentative terms for the ratification of the CFE Treaty," the expert said.

But the White House could change its stand on the START-1 Treaty, he said.

"The George W. Bush administration can change its position on START-1. The treaty expires at the end of 2009. The U.S. has argued until recently that the treaty was dead and that no extension was required, including for the regime of legally mandatory verification and monitoring of strategic forces. This cast doubts - to be more exact -- made senseless the implementation of the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, which envisions a reduction in the Russian and American strategic nuclear potential. How can this treaty be implemented in the absence of a verification mechanism?" Rogov said.

It cannot be ruled out, said Rogov, that "the American side will acknowledge the need to sign some sort of document in order to provide a legal framework for the extension of the START-1 provisions," he said.

"The 2+2 meeting will make it clear whether the U.S. position on these issues has changed, and whether the U.S. is prepared to sign new agreements," the Russian expert said.

Regarding the issue of a missile shield in Europe, Rogov said that reports about Washington's plans to locate elements of its missile defense system in Turkey "give no reasons for making any far-reaching conclusions for the moment."

"But one could say in general that some new developments have emerged in the American position on the location of a third missile launch area in Europe," he said.