Subject: RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION: FROM PUTIN . TO PUTIN
Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2008
From: "Ariel Cohen" <Ariel.Cohen@heritage.org>
Cordially Invites You to a Conference
Russian Presidential Transition: From Putin … to Putin
Welcome and Opening Remarks
Helle Dale, Deputy Director, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies, and Director, Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for
Foreign Policy Studies, The Heritage Foundation
Panel 1
Ariel Cohen, Senior Research Fellow, Russian and Eurasian Studies and
International Energy Security, Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign
Policy Studies, The Heritage Foundation (Moderator)
Ian C. Kelly, Director, Office of Russian Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Andrei Illarionov, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, Cato
Institute – Invited
Anders Aslund, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute
Donald Jensen, Director of Research and Analysis, Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty
Panel 2
Blair Ruble, Director, Kennan Institute (Moderator)
Sarah E. Mendelson, Director, Human Rights and Security Initiative, and Senior
Fellow, Russia and Eurasia, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Simon Serfaty, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and
Senior Adviser, Europe Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ariel Cohen, Senior Research Fellow, Russian and Eurasian Studies and
International Energy Security, Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign
Policy Studies, The Heritage Foundation
Russia’s presidential election, set for March 2, already has a frontrunner – and winner. Dmitry Medvedev may be President Vladimir Putin’s chosen successor for the country’s highest office, but few people believe he will be in charge. Many think that the actual leader of Russia after the election will still be Putin, not Medvedev, a civilian bureaucrat, who lacks the corporate backing of the siloviki – the Russian secret services, law enforcement, and their veterans, the real power base of his mentor. The support of the leadership of Russia’s intelligence and security services, the military, and the military-industrial complex is essential for the current Russian political system of “managed” democracy to remain in place.
Medvedev’s anticipated victory will represent a continuation of “politics as usual” in Putin’s Russia. He will preside over an illiberal state rife with internal weaknesses, including a poor demographic profile. As Russia may further expand state management of key sectors of the national economy, pervasive corruption will fester at high levels of the Russian state-corporate complex, and human rights abuses continue. The foreign policy of the Putin-Medvedev administration will likely include escalating tensions with the United States and the UK, a divide-and-conquer approach vis-à-vis the rest of Europe, and continuing rapprochement with Iran, China and Venezuela. Whoever resides in the White House will have much to do dealing with the resurgent Russia.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008 – 10:00 a.m. to 12:45 p.m.
The Heritage Foundation’s Allison Auditorium
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