Optimism vs. Pessimism: JRL Recipients Respond
DJ: On Monday I asked JRL recipients: "Are you optimistic or pessimistic about Russia in 2008?" Here are some of the answers:
You are forgetting the old maxim that in Russia, a pessimist is a well-informed optimist.
I'm optimistic about Russia in 2008. If politicians on both sides of the Atlantic would stop using each other to score domestic points, we might actually confirm that our two countries have so much in common that we cannot imagine why anyone would call us at odds over central issues and important values.
I'm optimistic that Russia will survive 2008 intact, but pessimistic that the Kremlin will continue to fail to establish the basis for a secure and prosperous country and will persist with their wrong- headed policies. How's that?!
I live in Yekaterinburg, and while economically the outlook is good--better for Russia (or at least parts of it) than many years, politically I'm very pessimistic. Russia will be a real challenge for the U.S. and the west for some time to come.
My feelings about Russia are complicated. Its doing much better economically but remains on the cusp of fragility as long as reliance on energy and incredible corruption continue. Moscow's response to the US remains increasingly emotional --they are still in 'payback mode' and therefore our relations will remain volatile. Russia's policy toward the US and the West could become increasingly counterproductive as time goes on, not boding well for anyone. Since it appears that Putin and Co are remaining on the job, I'm hoping that a new administration will tailor our responses to Moscow bit more intelligently than they have been over the past 8 years.
Russia will continue to follow its own path with little reference to what we want for it. So, optimism or pessimism must be seen in the Russian context. And that probably depends primarily on the price of energy--a lot of mistakes can be swept under the rug as long as the treasury hauls in large sums of cash."
I think the decibel level will be lower after the March Russian Presidential election, assuming, in the US, we do not have a candidate like John McCain who gets off on negativity towards Russia. I view the relatively bad result this past year [re investment funds] resulting from so-called political risk, which was really bad PR since I do not view Russia as an adversary on the merits and view the constant negativity as more a reflection of Russia's inability to play the PR game (Washington lobbyists, etc.).
I am neither optimistic or pessimistic for Russia in 2008. In the short run, it seems that stability will prevail. In the long run, it doesn't seem as though the Putin/Medvedev regime is going to take the steps to wean the economy off dependence on energy sources, or to make undertake the sort of reforms (I'm not sure that they have the ability to do so) that would provide the basis for an sustainable economy practicing some variety of capitalism.
I am optimistic that growth will continue given the outlook for world energy prices, but social instability will start to creep in if inflation, conscription, and separatism are not better addressed.
As for optimism/pessimism; economically I'm sure the country will continue to grow, but in terms of personal/political freedom and general quality of life, I see probable retrenchments in the former and only minimal gains in the latter. Does that make me optimistic or pessimistic? :)
I'm optimistic about Russia in 2008. Remember Tutchev? You cannot understand Russia with your mind ... You can only believe in her ...
Optimistic about Russia, always! Expectations in the 'West' have always been too high.
Optimistic. The economy seems likely to be as strong as the price of oil, which thrives under current world conditions. I have argued that institutions matter, and some of them are construction. Institutions are strong, in that they weather changes in government styles.
My 1200-year perspective on Russian history makes me pessimistic about 2008. Does freedom have to = chaos? A couple of decades ago some Russians came around and said that "Russians believe that democracy means that everyone can talk at once." Maybe Medvedev can "turn things around," but he's got to work against 1200 years of history-culture + the fact that "all" the Jews have emigrated.
I'm optimistic about Russia for 2008. However, I'm pessimistic about US and Russian relations for the upcoming year or two (possibly longer depending on who is elected President in the US).
As a trained Kremlin-Astrologer I am rather pessimistic for Russia in 2008. The establishment of a new ruling system with a representative new president and a ruling prime-minister will bring great problems – as we know them from Bismarck and the Kaiser. However, for the long run I am very optimistic, because not even a new Lenin would be able to rule autocratically over this huge and dynamic country and after Putin Thermidor a renaissance of market and freedom will be inevitable.
I am optimistic about Russia but pessimistic about Russia-US relations. While Russia has grown enormously in economic strength since the mid-1990s, my hopes of a decade ago of seeing our two countries learn to work together in a open, honest way to our mutual benefit have been at least put on the back burner, if not in the deep-freeze.
2008 should be good for Russia if Putin continues to be at the helm directly or indirectly.
I cannot really speak in terms of whether I am optimistic or pessimistic for 2008, but in the medium term I find myself quite pessimistic. For me, Putin has turned out to be a great disappointment, he simply is just too Soviet and really seems to care about a strong, but not necessarily a healthy, country. The real tragedy is that despite a few like yourself we do not know how to engage Russians in a manner helpful to them and useful for us.
I'd say I'm optimistic for 2008 in regards economy, pessimistic in regards civil freedoms.
I am very optimistic for 2008 (provided that land mine called Kosovo can be avoided!) but also am just as convinced that Russia will face many problems in 2009 and may run into a full crisis (of investment confidence, social instability and political difficulties) in 2010.
As to the predictions: I think the year will be mixed - I don't think that the Putin system will collapse yet - and that is the pessimist bit - but the dynamic predicted by analysts like Shevtsova will set in - and that is the optimist bit.
I'm more optimistic about Russia than I am about this country [the US].
I am, well, pessimistic, in the sense that I believe that important changes in economics and politics will not happen and everything will continue as in 2007. But I am optimistic that Russia will not be hit by a major crisis (end of the real estate bubble and similar) yet.
I try to hope that Medvedev's appointment means something good. Anything is possible. Unfortunately the balance of facts and evidence is as yet on the pessimistic side.
I am afraid that I am pessimistic about the probable course of events in the next year in Russia.The "resource curse" seems to have been visited on Russia with a vengeance, combining with unheard of resource prices to allow the government to blunder into effectively re-nationalizing oil and gas. Nationalization is not bad per se, though it normally leads to a bad outcome through the removal of market forces being the guiding light governing development decisions. And then the substitution of political qualifications for commercial qualifications in the executive ranks pretty well relegate industry to sub-optimal performance. Sadly, the economic results are masked by the extravagant and unearned economic rents accruing to those on top of the greasy pole, and the effects on society as a whole (vide Mexico) take decades to emerge.Pity. Reminds me of the famous saying attributed to the Russians and certainly uttered by Chernomyrdin, "we hoped for the best, but things turned out as always."
It's not popular to say so but I am optimistic about Russia in 2008. I did four winters in Moscow in the 1960s and 1970s. The contrast with Russia today is simply staggering. Not good enough? We Americans would be wise to take a step back and remember that they are not like us. Let them find their own way.
Obviously there are many more necessary bumps in the road in the 'short and medium run'--necessary as part of the process of moving forward with painfully evolving institutions and competitive markets. I am 'cautiously optimistic'. I know this sounds like a cop-out, but the potential for being sidetracked is still great. (There's also a lot of hope behind it, too, to be honest.)
I'd say I'm mildly optimistic for Russia this year, at least on the economic and living standards front, and likely for social stability; less so for political pluralism, but that doesn't seem to motivate many Russians at the street level these days.
Hmm, optimistic in the sense that Russia will continue to prosper -- yes. Optimistic that Russia's prosperity will be anything more than a thin veneer over a sadly dysfunctional society -- pessimistic. The fact is that Russia makes nothing -- it's economy is based on its ability to dig stuff out of the ground and sell it. Drive a relatively short distance outside of Moscow or Petersburg and you're in the land of outhouses and no-running-water. Until these factors change, I fear, it will remain a cold-weather version of Saudi Arabia.
About some things, very optimistic; other things -- political life for example -- not so much. -------- "I can only go back to year 2000 when I first began visiting Russia and knowing Russians intimately ( not sure if I should describe it this way....but never mind ). So, my comparisons are between 2000 and 2008, rather than 2007 and 2008. Also, I haven't been back to Russia since living there for the month of May 2004. I can only imagine how much the places I "know" have changed since my last visit.
"Am I to base my opinions from an American or Russian perspective?
"Of course, I am pessimistic if I compare aspects ( television and news and radio journalistic freedom from political censorship, or journalists being free from retribution - ie. Anna Politkovskaya ) of Russia now, as opposed to Russia 4 years ago. Or, I'm optimistic if I contrast other aspects ( salaries, jobs in the cities, internet, cell phone communications, availability of consumer goods despite rising inflation ) of Russia now, as opposed to say, 8 years ago.
"Here is what some of my Russian friends are doing here in the States: One former Muscovite has converted a lot of his wealth back into rubles and sent it back to Russia. Another has become an American citizen, his wife has completed her American medical training ( she was a top OB/GYN in Ru. but here, had to start completely over ) and is now a doctor in Family Practice. Another has returned to Russia during last summer and bought a huge detached house outside of Sergeiv Possad, and is hoping to bring his family to move there in the next year or two. He is pessimistic about life in America. He bemoans the consumerism of America, the inferior schooling, the "loss of soul", etc. He also bemoans the increasing "westernization" of Russia. Another has sold her flat in Russia, and is not planning on anything but staying here in the States. She still sends her son back to live with/his grandmother in dacha during the summers, though, of course.
"Two of my Russian friends IN Russia have risen to the top in international corporations.One is running out of room on his passport, from all the international business trips and vacations abroad. It's a far cry from his provincial life 8 years ago. Once a qualified, aggressive person comes to work in Moscow, it seems as though the sky's the limits. Three sets of my other friends have married and each have a child. Another of my friends has established a peace and reconciliation ( Russian/German ) concern, and renovated and re-consecrated and developed a parish congregation of an entire church ( with/help from Germans ). The church was closed by the Bolsheviks who shot the priest at his home when he opened the door in 1919. The church was devastated in a large battle during the War. Now, it's a thriving village church, huge, and a vast German cemetery has been made, including a "Peace" museum from the battlegrounds. The amount of change for his life and how he has affected other's lives has been incredible.
"Overall, I have to say that perspective matters a great deal. If you're a "everyone should have an Americanized governmental democracy" American, then you can be quite pessimistic. If you're an American who hasn't "bought" the 90's Harvard MBA / Yeltsin economics and still doesn't "buy" the idea that Putin is "supposed" to be different than what he actually is- then you can afford to be cautiously, ever so timidly optimistic.
"I will hope for Russia till they close the doors to my securing a visa to go there. I hesitate to wonder that how optimistic or pessimistic I feel about Russia is completely independent of my being American." --------
I'm very pessimistic about Russian democracy and integration with the West--though Russians tell me I'm just another American who begrudges Russia its success...
Pessimistic? Optimistic? Who cares - as long as it continues to be interesting!
You of course know the joke about the Russian pessimist who believes things can't get worse, while the optimist is confident that they can. My guess is that relations with USA will continue to cool gradually, what with the coming election rhetoric on both sides. Inflation will continue to pinch many Russians' pocket books, and the failure to invest in renewal of infrastructure in many parts of the country will pile up a bigger social deficit--how alike we are in many ways. As for politics, most of my Russian friends have given that up as hopeless long ago--they keep their heads down, work like demons, and enjoy what they can. Probably I am most pessimistic about the education system, which shows some real signs of deterioration.
I am pessimistic about Russia in 2008. Whether the year brings more of Putin's leadership in slightly different form, or a conflict within the elite, I think that Russia will continue to prosper economically without democratizing, that a narrow elite will decide how to run the state and spend the energy profits, and little good will come of this for the majority. Sorry to be so pessimistic, perhaps Putin's moving to the PM position will change the political dynamics, but I don't expect so. --------
"It is hard not to be optimistic about Russia. Even though Putin has proven to be an excellent statesman and has brought Russia from a debtor nation to a surplus nation along with steady economic growth, 40% of the people voted against his party in the Duma. This presents a strong argument against the idea of massive government control in Russia. Of course, it would be hard to beat any national leader that increased wages by five fold while keeping inflation under control, has cut the number of people in poverty in half, and has increased social spending.
"Admittedly, the state owns a majority interest in three national TV channels, however there are more privately owned newspapers, local TV and radio station as well as more privately owned magazines. Then again, more Russians are getting their information off the internet. More than 25% of Russians have access to the Internet and half of these admit that it is their main source of information.
"There have been great strides made in the judicial system as well. People have filed suit against various levels of the government and won. If fact they have won on a regular basis. To such a degree that even, the political opposition has file suit in court against Putin. Putin has expanded the jury system to a nationwide system. He introduced the requirement that a person must be arraigned within 48 hours of arrest and charged within two weeks or released.
"All this is well and good, but the most important sign that Russia is developing a true capitalistic system is the rapid growth of the middle class. Without a large and strong middle class the economic outlook for any economic system is bleak. If there is no hope for a better tomorrow for the average person then the average person will turn to other means to insure a better tomorrow. Thus Putin has give Russia that most important of all commodities. He has provided Russia with the vision of a better tomorrow. Because without a vision the people perish." -------- I'm PESSIMISTIC about Russia for 2008, after many months in Russia over the past 9 years, and spending October 3-December 4 of this year in Russia and hearing first-hand confirmation of all electoral problems reported in the press and see in the huge Za Putina banners all over central Moscow. Optimistic or pessimistic ? - such simple options for such a complex place. OK. I am optimistic that the Russian space will climb a wall of worry to better times. I believe I hold no illusions (ha-ha, again) about Russian realities, but the economy continues to surge. So does inflation - the biggest bug-a-boo for '08. As we debate the prospects for Medvedev - or another twist to surprise - let us all recall the way Putin was perceived in his early days as Yeltsin's PM. If only Russian politics were so simple and predictable - like ours in the USA... My primary experience & contacts in Russia are in Vladivostok and the Russian Far East. Overwhelmingly, they don't care about politics - not one tiny bit...as long as the Chinese keep to their side of the border and the Dear Leader keeps his fingers off any launch buttons. Times are good after a long haul of bad. No euphoria, though...yet.
My guess is a decent first half followed by a worsening set of trends in many things for 2H.
I am very down on Russia/Putin and was appalled that Putin was named Man of the Year by Time. I'm formulating a short article comparing the use of foreign specialists to build socialism in the 1920s and 30s with the use of foreign advisers and democracy promoters to build "democracy" and a market economy today! Many interesting similarities...
My own new years' wish, shared by many Russian friends and professional colleagues, is that '08 proves to be a transition year to much better, saner, and more productive U.S.-Russia relations on all levels. I think we are all getting a second chance for this to happen, and your daily coverage of developments reflects that fact in the sometimes complicated news of what is really going on. Wishes of course, are not enough, and people need to take steps to fulfill them.
About predictions, it depends about what. Also, I'll follow the counsel of the late Herb Levine, - advice for economic forecasters is, give a number and a date, but never at the same time!
Yesterday I contented myself observing two different media: one was the new edition of Richard Sakwa's Putin, Russia's Choice and the other was pictures of New Year's eve from the Kremlin on television. I was struck by how much has changed for the worse since Sakwa's book went to press earlier his fall (which is sad since I'm using it for my class next semester)--the sham of the elections to the Duma, the sham of the coming elections for the Presidency. It is a great pity that a person of Putin's undoubted brilliance is using his personal power for enriching the elite--when he came to power he commented that it was a tragedy that Russia was a rich country with poor people. I don't believe he cares a whit about the poor people of Russia. What he does care about is Russia--and the Kremlin pictures with the power and glory of the anthem, the fireworks and the buildings of the Kremlin shown in wonderful relief (without the crowds being pictured) summed it all up for me. ---------
"I am not optimistic about Russia in 2008. I am fairly sure that economic growth will continue in an impressive way, but that would be hard to avoid given continuing high oil prices. (Like here in Alberta, we have morons in government but we are rolling in dough. Good thing Alberta is not a country or we would be another Nigeria or Russia. Well, not quite, as we had a strong democracy before oil took over, but still ...)
"I think the touchstone for assessing good or bad for Russia should be found on the political side and here things are very bad and very unlikely to get better in 2008. The false presidential election will solidify the current trend ever further away from anything anyone could call democratic.
"My Russian friends are so depressed about the political scene that they don't for the most part want even to talk about what has transpired under Mr. Putin. They have reverted to Soviet behaviour, hunkering down to concentrate solely on their own tiny sliver of Russian life and given up entirely on concerns with the bigger picture. The institutions they work for are mind-bogglingly corrupt.
"Honestly, I feel sorrier for them than I ever have before. There was hope in the 90s (like Nadezhda Mandelstam's first book -- Hope Against Hope) and now that is all gone (like her second book of memoirs -- Hope Abandoned).
"I told one of my Russian friends last year (2007) that it broke my heart that Russian people did not have their dignity. His response? They had never had their dignity. Period."
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