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#17 - JRL 2008-161 - JRL Home
Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2008
From: International Economist based in NJ
Subject: Re: 2008-#160-Johnson's Russia List (Totten's Worms-Goltz version) [re: Russia-Georgia war]

Totten's reporting of the Goltz-Worms version doesn't quite stand up. The August 6 claim looks inaccurate right off the bat, if we're talking about the use 120mm artillery.

Georgia's own Prime Minister contends the use of such artillery began August 2nd, by South Ossetian rebels. (http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5953&Itemid=65 ). That is a serious charge but could have been handled diplomatically. Still, that does not mean Russia technically started this war. Russia, remember went to the UN Security Council late at night Thursday August 7th to try to defuse the whole mess but got stonewalled by the U.S. who backed up Georgia's refusal to abide by a non-use of force cease-fire provision for the region.

Peter Finn, of the Washington Post, importantly noted that the shelling by separatists on the evening of August 7th, which the Georgian Defense Ministry had cited as the reason they dispatched their tanks, howitzers, and big artillery to South Ossetia, was never confirmed by OCSE observers on the ground. But we do have the Georgian Defense Minister's own admission that he gave the order at 6pm August 7th for the movement of men and material to South Ossetia and this movement is verified by the OCSE. The movement continues even after Saakashvili's unilateral cease-fire declaration at 7pm. Without the 120mm shellings by the South Ossetians being verified by the OCSE, it appears that the first instance of 120mm+ guns being brought into South Ossetia were by the Georgians with their 120mm howitzers and 203mm self-propelled artillery on August 7th.

The Georgian side is also claiming that Russian armor moved into South Ossetia before Saakashvili ordered his troops into South Ossetia. But that also lacks credibility at this point.

Like the August 7th claim of separatist shelling, the Russian armor claim has not been independently verified. Officials in the Bush Administration say they cannot verify such a chronology. And the Russians reject it.

But more to the point, if the Russians were technically responsible for breaking the cease-fire agreement with the introduction of armor then I think you'd find that line being pressed by Georgian allies, such as the U.S. and other NATO members. Instead from Condi Rice we got the initial criticism of Russia that her response was "disproportionate" and that tensions in South Ossetia merely "boiled over." And from NATO allies were are reading reports that, for instance, the UK's David Miliband is warning the Ukrainians to avoid giving Russia a "technical pretext" as the Georgians did, for military action, which is an oblique admission that neither the Americans or its NATO allies believe the Russians technically started it. Bottom line: until the Georgian account can be verified, international opinion on the start of this war will likely remain unmoved.

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