#17 - JRL 2008-161 - JRL Home
Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2008
From: International Economist based in NJ
Subject: Re: 2008-#160-Johnson's Russia List (Totten's
Worms-Goltz version) [re: Russia-Georgia war]Totten's reporting of
the Goltz-Worms version doesn't quite stand up. The August 6 claim looks
inaccurate right off the bat, if we're talking about the use 120mm artillery.
Georgia's own Prime Minister contends the use of such artillery began August
2nd, by South Ossetian rebels. (http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5953&Itemid=65
). That is a serious charge but could have been handled diplomatically. Still,
that does not mean Russia technically started this war. Russia, remember went to
the UN Security Council late at night Thursday August 7th to try to defuse the
whole mess but got stonewalled by the U.S. who backed up Georgia's refusal to
abide by a non-use of force cease-fire provision for the region.
Peter Finn, of the Washington Post, importantly noted that the shelling by
separatists on the evening of August 7th, which the Georgian Defense Ministry
had cited as the reason they dispatched their tanks, howitzers, and big
artillery to South Ossetia, was never confirmed by OCSE observers on the ground.
But we do have the Georgian Defense Minister's own admission that he gave the
order at 6pm August 7th for the movement of men and material to South Ossetia
and this movement is verified by the OCSE. The movement continues even after
Saakashvili's unilateral cease-fire declaration at 7pm. Without the 120mm
shellings by the South Ossetians being verified by the OCSE, it appears that the
first instance of 120mm+ guns being brought into South Ossetia were by the
Georgians with their 120mm howitzers and 203mm self-propelled artillery on
August 7th.
The Georgian side is also claiming that Russian armor moved into South
Ossetia before Saakashvili ordered his troops into South Ossetia. But that also
lacks credibility at this point.
Like the August 7th claim of separatist shelling, the Russian armor claim has
not been independently verified. Officials in the Bush Administration say they
cannot verify such a chronology. And the Russians reject it.
But more to the point, if the Russians were technically responsible for
breaking the cease-fire agreement with the introduction of armor then I think
you'd find that line being pressed by Georgian allies, such as the U.S. and
other NATO members. Instead from Condi Rice we got the initial criticism of
Russia that her response was "disproportionate" and that tensions in South
Ossetia merely "boiled over." And from NATO allies were are reading reports
that, for instance, the UK's David Miliband is warning the Ukrainians to avoid
giving Russia a "technical pretext" as the Georgians did, for military action,
which is an oblique admission that neither the Americans or its NATO allies
believe the Russians technically started it. Bottom line: until the Georgian
account can be verified, international opinion on the start of this war will
likely remain unmoved.
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